Right really going to try to keep this updated:
Fundamentally where are we now;
US
Poorish NFP figures- most banks have downgraded their expectations of a rate hike.
Surely the crash on the pound - and the political fighting between UK and EU ministers will weigh on the minds at the next FOMC meeting
So overall I would expect a more dovish FOMC statement for October
Will be keeping an eye on Fed member statements
UK
Still dominated by Brexit -
May and Hammond saying that we are in for a bumpy few years
Then May saying that there will no special deal for UK banks - was shocking
German and French leaders saying that they will make the UK pay is even worse
They fear the break up of the EU- if the UK get full access.
Only slight hope is that the far right get in during the upcoming EU elections. Penn might get in but not too sure about the AfD getting in- so not really too much hope there at the moment
Next week:
a) Tuesday - FOMC minutes- this can move the market, especially if it differs in sentiment to the statement- so I will be checking the statement on Monday
b) Friday- US Retail Sales and PPI- will probably fade this - Fed not really fussed about it after release
c) Friday Yellen speaks - https://www.bostonfed.org/live
As she is a dove and looking at the recent NFP figures you would expect her to be more dovish- so may well sell into this
News
I have seen that businesses have appealed to May for a softer approach.
I will be reading the news watching the TV to see what her response will be
She also off for a tour of Europe (Denmark, Netherlands and Spain)- so it will be interesting what she says.
I would expect that she is trying to drum up support, as these countries are eurosceptic
Will be listening to any response from Merkel &co.
The last thing that Germany wants are more members leaving - as they will have to pick up the slack
Any vitriolic statements from Merkel & Co. will only send the pound down further.
If a lot of the PMs are in favour of Britain and talk about referendums- we could see the Euro coming under pressure
Draghi's statement today warned about the issue of Brexit affecting the EU (although he did say that inflation should normalise in 2019)
So may well sell the EURJPY - the euro has been rallying against the other currencies over the last 6 days and could be due a break!
So should be an interesting week
Fundamentally where are we now;
US
Poorish NFP figures- most banks have downgraded their expectations of a rate hike.
Surely the crash on the pound - and the political fighting between UK and EU ministers will weigh on the minds at the next FOMC meeting
So overall I would expect a more dovish FOMC statement for October
Will be keeping an eye on Fed member statements
UK
Still dominated by Brexit -
May and Hammond saying that we are in for a bumpy few years
Then May saying that there will no special deal for UK banks - was shocking
German and French leaders saying that they will make the UK pay is even worse
They fear the break up of the EU- if the UK get full access.
Only slight hope is that the far right get in during the upcoming EU elections. Penn might get in but not too sure about the AfD getting in- so not really too much hope there at the moment
Next week:
a) Tuesday - FOMC minutes- this can move the market, especially if it differs in sentiment to the statement- so I will be checking the statement on Monday
b) Friday- US Retail Sales and PPI- will probably fade this - Fed not really fussed about it after release
c) Friday Yellen speaks - https://www.bostonfed.org/live
As she is a dove and looking at the recent NFP figures you would expect her to be more dovish- so may well sell into this
News
I have seen that businesses have appealed to May for a softer approach.
I will be reading the news watching the TV to see what her response will be
She also off for a tour of Europe (Denmark, Netherlands and Spain)- so it will be interesting what she says.
I would expect that she is trying to drum up support, as these countries are eurosceptic
Will be listening to any response from Merkel &co.
The last thing that Germany wants are more members leaving - as they will have to pick up the slack
Any vitriolic statements from Merkel & Co. will only send the pound down further.
If a lot of the PMs are in favour of Britain and talk about referendums- we could see the Euro coming under pressure
Draghi's statement today warned about the issue of Brexit affecting the EU (although he did say that inflation should normalise in 2019)
So may well sell the EURJPY - the euro has been rallying against the other currencies over the last 6 days and could be due a break!
So should be an interesting week