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AUD/USD

  • #99,361
  • Nov 1, 2016 7:48am Nov 1, 2016 7:48am
Trying to use fundamentals to trade is useless.
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  • #99,362
  • Nov 1, 2016 8:17am Nov 1, 2016 8:17am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I still havent gone short yet. I think it will go higher but looks like the london boys have pushed it as high as it will go so now need to wait for NY. It dont matter how many are bearish on this forum we are only there to catch the ride when it happens.
Doesnt look good at this stage, the pair has done 95pips today. Right now it appears to be USD selling. There's still ISM data out of the US and GDT results from NZ which usually moves the AU marginally. I may think of hedging in with a counter buy when we get some pull back and riding it until it becomes clearer.
  • #99,363
  • Nov 1, 2016 8:34am Nov 1, 2016 8:34am
I see a double top @ at 0.77, at least, if not higher.

Regards!
  • #99,364
  • Nov 1, 2016 9:06am Nov 1, 2016 9:06am
SEll in action as fibonacci complete
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  • #99,365
  • Nov 1, 2016 9:08am Nov 1, 2016 9:08am
It hit 136% of Average Daily Range. We had an expected hold on rates. And some positive but pretty much previously known commodity price news. Overcooked.
  • #99,366
  • Nov 1, 2016 9:12am Nov 1, 2016 9:12am
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} I still havent gone short yet. I think it will go higher but looks like the london boys have pushed it as high as it will go so now need to wait for NY. It dont matter how many are bearish on this forum we are only there to catch the ride when it happens.
 
Good stuff Paul. 
And nice profit
 
Wait and see,  may top up again...  Risky. 
Beware of robber banks (RB), bad advisors.
  • #99,367
  • Edited 10:26am Nov 1, 2016 9:17am | Edited 10:26am
Quoting ell3
{quote} I may think of hedging in with a counter buy when we get some pull back and riding it until it becomes clearer.
Ok, the sellers have emerged. Closed with just a tiny profit, achieved the breakeven average between my two short entries. I just hope I haven't chickened out of a good sell opportunity!

Added:
Reviewing the current market, USD selling has obviously emerged as a trend today; and may continue throughout the week prior to the US presidential elections; additionally, by now it also looks clear that the market has chosen to interpret the RBA's actions as hawkish. Imo this is turning into a bullish scenario for me. But nonetheless, it's still a sell at the highs - 77cents and above for me now. will buy if it pulls back to the hourly moving averages at around 7625-30ish.
  • #99,368
  • Nov 1, 2016 1:12pm Nov 1, 2016 1:12pm
Just open long at 0.7648
  • #99,369
  • Nov 1, 2016 5:51pm Nov 1, 2016 5:51pm
For lack of a better term, fractal rejection at 7690 played out nicely
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Pride always comes before destruction.... -Proverbs 16:18
  • #99,370
  • Nov 1, 2016 9:38pm Nov 1, 2016 9:38pm
looking t buy AU with setup...
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  • #99,371
  • Nov 1, 2016 10:17pm Nov 1, 2016 10:17pm
no doubt sellers were expected at 7690, but that was strange of the A/U to reverse all the way back and give up yesterday's gains entirely -- strange, when other usd pairs have all remained at the highs against the usd. looks like i made the wrong call to bail out of my shorts at near breakeven 7655.
  • #99,372
  • Nov 1, 2016 10:46pm Nov 1, 2016 10:46pm
Quoting ell3
no doubt sellers were expected at 7690, but that was strange of the A/U to reverse all the way back and give up yesterday's gains entirely -- strange, when other usd pairs have all remained at the highs against the usd. looks like i made the wrong call to bail out of my shorts at near breakeven 7655.
Really strange. Commodities going very well, no sign of declining in the short term. Wasn't even real posturing from RBA on keeping dollar down, a rather brief one liner. Maybe AUD is over extended and the 0.77 is a top that is going to take some real strength from AU to breach, rather than the USD weakness.

Although if it stays around the 0.765 area before FOMC and they don't raise rates, then I think we will hit the 0.775 again.

EDIT: If I find something obvious I will let you all know.
  • #99,373
  • Nov 1, 2016 11:12pm Nov 1, 2016 11:12pm
Quoting redalert
{quote} Although if it stays around the 0.765 area before FOMC and they don't raise rates, then I think we will hit the 0.775 again.
agreed. i was thinking to buy at the 100hma @ 7612 but i missed it while stepping away from my desk. the rebound was a quick 20pips. the battle may really be narrowing. i think the perfect FOMC scenario will be for them not to raise rates, but to raise a hawkish rhetoric. i will probably take the risk to sell the initial spike and hope for a hawkish fade.
  • #99,374
  • Nov 2, 2016 3:43am Nov 2, 2016 3:43am
Long AU 5m
SL 323
Target 549
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  • #99,375
  • Nov 2, 2016 6:27am Nov 2, 2016 6:27am
Quoting Fhillip
Just open long at 0.7648
Open also long 0.7634.
Now closed it all at 0 7654.

Guys, what is your thought on these AUD movements? It seems is still on the range of nowhere... Price going up and down very easily, but no clear break or direction.
  • #99,376
  • Nov 2, 2016 6:32am Nov 2, 2016 6:32am
Quoting Fhillip
{quote} Open also long 0.7634. Now closed it all at 0 7654. Guys, what is your thought on these AUD movements? It seems is still on the range of nowhere... Price going up and down very easily, but no clear break or direction.

Personally I dont focus too much on what the movements mean. I saw my edge in the 5min chart, so I just took the trade. Fortunately it was a winner.
I think people focus too much on ideas and too little on finding their own technichal setups.

I use a list of criteria for my entries, if they are met, I take the trade. If they are not, I sit and watch.

Cheers
  • #99,377
  • Nov 2, 2016 6:34am Nov 2, 2016 6:34am
I think movement is UP just a little, but trend line in H4 need go back to support. And if price goes UP, in MACD indicator makes divergence. Its in my mind.
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  • #99,378
  • Nov 2, 2016 6:36am Nov 2, 2016 6:36am
Quoting Fhillip
{quote} Open also long 0.7634. Now closed it all at 0 7654. Guys, what is your thought on these AUD movements? It seems is still on the range of nowhere... Price going up and down very easily, but no clear break or direction.
I honestly think you dunno what you are doing. Your trading method, averaging into losing positions, is a recipe for disaster. You may get lucky 9 times, but that 1 losing time will blow your account. Get a grip on basics first, before you start to analyse which way AUD will move.
  • #99,379
  • Nov 2, 2016 6:49am Nov 2, 2016 6:49am
sell mode for AU
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  • #99,380
  • Nov 2, 2016 6:57am Nov 2, 2016 6:57am
Good point and good principle.

KP


Quoting ProdigyFX
{quote} ...I think people focus too much on ideas and too little on finding their own technichal setups. I use a list of criteria for my entries, if they are met, I take the trade. If they are not, I sit and watch. Cheers
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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