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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,661
  • Nov 1, 2016 7:37am Nov 1, 2016 7:37am
Soft and simple sessions across the board with BOJ inline and most of Europe on Holiday today. Bonds still on the move on the background but without making a final push yet.

Except an unexpected 'tweet' from the US election front, the opening range will kill all markets till the FED and the FX board till the FED/BOE combo. Last few calm sessions in what is expect to be a very moving end of the year ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,662
  • Nov 1, 2016 10:24am Nov 1, 2016 10:24am
Bulls seems in full control .. trying to reach somewhere ... Where I don't know ... Just watching and enjoying .... Please some one tell me if it's game changer ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,663
  • Nov 1, 2016 10:32am Nov 1, 2016 10:32am
Quoting primejarvis
Bulls seems in full control .. trying to reach somewhere ... Where I don't know ... Just watching and enjoying .... Please some one tell me if it's game changer ...Â
it's simple flow if you put it in context , US elections with FOMC on hold tomorrow plus Trump has a real chance to win at least according to the market in regards to the

latest news from FBI etc... the momentum handle on which the move down occured is 1.11xx which is still not locked but the mid term move is in play so short term

translates into eurusd retracing via risk .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,664
  • Nov 1, 2016 10:34am Nov 1, 2016 10:34am
Quoting hoom
{quote} it's simple flow if you put it in context , US elections with FOMC on hold tomorrow plus Trump has a real chance to win at least according to the market in regards to the latest news from FBI etc... the momentum handle on which the move down occured is 1.11xx which is still not locked but the mid term move is in play so short term translates into eurusd retracing via risk .
Yes sir ... But what's the flip in this flow ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,665
  • Nov 1, 2016 10:36am Nov 1, 2016 10:36am
Agreed

Just a retrace via risk and technicals, expectations still inline so long as no surprise hike tomorrow and Hillary winning election.

Can't be a non stop ride to 1.05xx afterall...should see more of the technical story around the 1.11xx handle as hoom said. All dollar pairs are retracing as well as dollar futures

chester posted a good flip map imo, lines up with my techs

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post9226029
  • #144,666
  • Nov 1, 2016 11:10am Nov 1, 2016 11:10am
Thankx @pharmor & @hoom ... 
Let's C what NY brings to us ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,667
  • Nov 1, 2016 11:11am Nov 1, 2016 11:11am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Yes sir ... But what's the flip in this flow ...Â
mid term flip in this context around 1.096x
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,668
  • Nov 1, 2016 11:41am Nov 1, 2016 11:41am
AJ..

Managed to make almost perfect entry according to the map....posted as encouregement to others and to show that no matter how good your trading is you can improve with Sisse's valuable posts. So thanks again, Sisse. This one is for you.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPYiDaily Short 1.11..png Size: 53 KB
PVSRA
  • #144,669
  • Nov 1, 2016 11:43am Nov 1, 2016 11:43am
Quoting primejarvis
Bulls seems in full control .. trying to reach somewhere ... Where I don't know ... Just watching and enjoying .... Please some one tell me if it's game changer ...
...just a reminder from few days ago...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiH4 confluence 30.10..png Size: 87 KB

Do not panic, let the news play out and wait for your entry. It will come.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiH4.png Size: 85 KB
PVSRA
  • #144,670
  • Nov 1, 2016 11:49am Nov 1, 2016 11:49am
well, seems the election jitters /C vs. T tie/ are weighting on the markets - mostly equities. Still expect the closing range to save the equities - may be wrong. In any case nothing to do until we clear FED (expected to be completely inline) and BoE at least for me
  • #144,671
  • Nov 1, 2016 12:01pm Nov 1, 2016 12:01pm
Quoting sisse
Well Lehman happened back then !!!!... ...Election was not even a glitch that time. ......only political jitters and soap opera in tweet trading mode is in play volatility wise. I won't be surprise of another scandal coming in the next couple of days or after if the election is too close to call or Clinton just edged by a tiny margin, the super fake, plastic rich guy doesn't come across as someone that will just concede without a fight or taking the system down with him... sisse
well yes but there was a ~80% ^VIX bump around the election, too......anyway I think we will get something decent if not that much and I am well positioned in cheap vix-related options spreads to catch some.....some coming off this week and the next 2 weeks after.....certainly the stage is set for big drama post-election - it might be a fizzle, might be shock n' awe, we'll see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,672
  • Nov 1, 2016 12:14pm Nov 1, 2016 12:14pm
Euro completing a full retrace on the rest 1.105x. Very well done all bulls from 1.088x. A few interesting things in the background watch-out EC losing the 1.08xx handle breaking complete correlation with the Euro/USD flows. Currencies, particularly the Euro short-circuiting before the FED sending important signals of what is cooking in the background.

Strangely as it may have sound the last couple of years, the closer UK get to the abyss and US flirts to shoot themselves in the foot, the EURO will raise as the bigger winner in the FX board as solid haven for the mid and long term. For now the next leg coming from the Dollar side so tighten your sit belts as we pretty much are ready for major mid term swings mid the FX board.

1.104x is only level to track for the roll in the Euro and is trailing and crunching time for those still holding positions from the mid and short term swings. Bulls failing to take it with the FED, and the high of this month will be set on today's highs.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,673
  • Nov 1, 2016 12:34pm Nov 1, 2016 12:34pm
Quoting sisse
.... Strangely as it may have sound the last couple of years, the closer UK get to the abyss and US flirts to shoot themselves in the foot, the EURO will raise as the bigger winner in the FX board as solid haven for the mid and long term. ...
ironic but something i too was reasoning about. Trump win would be a jump in the unknown in many fields and as known markets don't like this.

What worries me are the other aspects...
  • #144,674
  • Nov 1, 2016 12:41pm Nov 1, 2016 12:41pm
Quoting sisse
Euro completing a full retrace on the rest 1.105x. Very well done all bulls from 1.088x. A few interesting things in the background watch-out EC losing the 1.08xx handle breaking complete correlation with the Euro/USD flows. Currencies, particularly the Euro short-circuiting before the FED sending important signals of what is cooking in the background. Strangely as it may have sound the last couple of years, the closer UK get to the abyss and US flirts to shoot themselves in the foot, the EURO will raise as the bigger winner in the FX board as solid...
but can we say that for sure (setting high with the FED bulls failing) - because if trump wins? =) I would say the major force will be short term rates (hike) pricing-out, no?
  • #144,675
  • Nov 1, 2016 1:01pm Nov 1, 2016 1:01pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} but can we say that for sure (setting high with the FED bulls failing) - because if trump wins? =) I would say the major force will be short term rates (hike) pricing-out, no?
The nutter is a risk problem short term before election or if he decide to bring down the system with him if he losses by narrow margin not if he wins.

If he wins the major problems start for 2017 and beyond. Us Equities will mark mid and long term highs at least but more importantly protectionism, less free trade, populism, conflict and more than probably war will be around the corner.

Still will have France and Germany to complete the combo (hopefully not)...the only winners and by mile or two China, Russia and in the world economy nobody except the conflict industries that will make a killer in between and smart countries that can exploit it as haven of free trade and markets playing stupidity (like canada or the Swiss)...

Sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,676
  • Nov 1, 2016 1:45pm Nov 1, 2016 1:45pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} The nutter is a risk problem short term before election or if he decide to bring down the system with him if he losses by narrow margin not if he wins. If he wins the major problems start for 2017 and beyond. Us Equities will mark mid and long term highs at least but more importantly protectionism, less free trade, populism, conflict and more than probably war will be around the corner. Still will have France and Germany to complete the combo (hopefully not)...the only winners and by mile or two China, Russia and in...

He is a nutter but do we really need to worry that much if he is elected ? US is not a Putincracy nor an Erdogancracy. I am sure it's possible to find a majority of adults among the 100 senators and the 435 representatives
  • #144,677
  • Edited 2:20pm Nov 1, 2016 1:51pm | Edited 2:20pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} He is a nutter but do we really need to worry that much if he is elected ? US is not a Putincracy nor an Erdogancracy. I am sure it's possible to find a majority of adults among the 100 senators and the 435 representatives
Good one. Almost spit my drink all over my keyboard. I voted today and searched the ballot over and over for adults. Couldn't find one. Just a bunch of lobotomized lab rats sponsored by the teachers union, the gun union and ExxonMobil.
  • #144,678
  • Nov 1, 2016 2:08pm Nov 1, 2016 2:08pm
What if eu reached 1160? Likely, unlikely not sure. FOMC could bump it there among other things. I think 1065 should be some resisitance for sure but if it did get there, perhaps a good short entry. Split in 3 parts with 100 pips stop and TP1 at 1055, 2 at 0965 and 3 at 085x. Thoughts on that idea?
  • #144,679
  • Nov 1, 2016 2:14pm Nov 1, 2016 2:14pm
1.108xx for e/u ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,680
  • Nov 1, 2016 2:18pm Nov 1, 2016 2:18pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} He is a nutter but do we really need to worry that much if he is elected ? .....
Well if you are white stale male deep in the US South probably not. For the rest of the US and 80℅ of the world more than sure yes.

...as i mentioned before, markets wise the major problem short term is if he doesn't win and decide to make mockery of US institutions and democracy. If he wins the problems are for later 2017 and beyond. After the beautiful and constructive bipartisan last 8 years....gl trying to convince anyone that all will be fine for free markets and trade.

Outside of economics anf markets...will leave it for the pre election political post as we have plenty of action in from us this week alone
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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