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Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest

  • #241
  • Oct 31, 2016 6:26am Oct 31, 2016 6:26am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events


Monday, October 31st

GBP/USD

Current price: 1.2174 (-0.1%)
Session range: Open 1.2178 High 1.2216 Low 1.2171
Latest trend: Bearish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.2072, R. 1.2268
Main drivers: US Core PCE Price Index, US Personal Spending
Overview: The pound is still weak at the start of this week unable to break through resistance placed at 1.2200 level and now is sending the pair back to its daily lows near 1.2180 level. Moreover, the latest announcement of BoE Chief M.Carney about his future as governor of the Bank of England has negatively influenced the pound, but the last word of M.Carney’s decision will be spoken on Thursday. Additionally, the sterling will remain pressured today as potential “hard-Brexit” scenario coupled with broadly based dollar’s strength fueled by risen expectations of Fed rate-hike by the end of this year are still majorly boosting pair’s bears.

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  • #242
  • Nov 1, 2016 6:18am Nov 1, 2016 6:18am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events


Tuesday, November 1st

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.0994 (0.1%)
Session range: Open 1.0980 High 1.0996 Low 1.0957
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.0913 R. 1.1023
Main drivers: UK Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Overview: The pair enters Europe in positive note. However, the euro’s attempts to break through key resistance level remain capped as ongoing speculations of H.Clinton’s win in presidential elections are strongly supporting US dollar. Moreover, according to the latest statistics the probability of this year Fed rate-hike has ticked up to 72.5% that also provides the dollar with significant support lately. Nothing much is scheduled in EU data calendar, so the major will stay at the mercy of sentiments around US dollar until ISM Manufacturing PMI will grab traders’ attention in NA session.


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  • #243
  • Nov 2, 2016 6:36am Nov 2, 2016 6:36am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events


Wednesday, November 2nd

EUR/USD

Current price: 1.1077 (0.2%)
Session range: Open 1.1055 High 1.1100 Low 1.1049
Latest trend: Bullish
Expected trend: Bearish
Daily volatility: Low
Support and resistance levels: S. 1.0918 R. 1.1136
Main drivers: German Unemployment Change, US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Fed Interest Rate Decision
Overview: The pair is showing significant increase lately, erasing the most part of October’s losses and moving toward crucial resistance level of 1.1100. According to the latest polls D.Trump is getting into a lead in presidential election race vs. H.Clinton after recently reopened investigation of H.Clinton’s email is boosting major sell-off of US dollar. Next on tap remain several local EU manufacturing PMIs with German data from labor market that will provide fresh impetus to the major in Europe, while FOMC meeting should grab all the attention later in the NA session.

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  • #244
  • Nov 3, 2016 5:37am Nov 3, 2016 5:37am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events



Thursday, November 3rd

News that D.Trump is in the lead of US presidential election race following an ABC/Washington Post polls results are still gripping the market negatively influencing US dynamic as investors think that D.Trumps taxation program will drive US economy back to recession.

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  • #245
  • Nov 7, 2016 4:58am Nov 7, 2016 4:58am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events



Monday, November 7th

According to the latest polls H.Clinton is back in the lead as FBI has cleared Democratic candidate form recently reopened H.Clinton’s email case. The FBI has noted that the email case is nothing more than carelessness, but not the criminal case. That comments have triggered a new buying wave of the greenback across the market this Monday as less than two days remain until we find out who will be next president of US. Nothing as much important as US presidential elections is scheduled in event calendar for this week, so market participants will stay watching for the latest developments surrounding US political situation.


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  • #246
  • Nov 8, 2016 5:10am Nov 8, 2016 5:10am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events



Tuesday, November 8th

Things are moving, US presidential elections has begun. And the first voters were the residents of a small mountain town called Dixville Notchin in New Hampshire, that is located directly on the border with Canada. And the results of the exit poll are: H.Clinton 4 votes, D.Trump 2 votes, other candidates received by one vote each. The towns population is 12 people, and only 8 of which took part in the vote. An international news agency Reuters says that H.Clinton has 90% chances to win this race this fact strongly supports US dollar. Moreover, according to popular vote results H.Clinton is leading US presidential election with 45% of votes vs. 42% owned by D.Trump but the final results will be released later in Europ.

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  • #247
  • Nov 9, 2016 5:09am Nov 9, 2016 5:09am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events



Wednesday, November 9th

D.Trump managed to reverse the course of the US election race today and now is expanding his lead over H.Clinton. With D.Trump’s win in key swing states by the poll results most of the popular news agencies have predicted victory of the candidate from Republican Party with a probability of 90%. D.Trump’s leadership in US election race remains a main surprise of this Wednesday, as just yesterday the main candidate for presidential chair was H.Clinton. Leader of the National Front party of the France Marine Le Pen has already congratulated Donald Trump in her twitter.


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  • #248
  • Nov 10, 2016 5:02am Nov 10, 2016 5:02am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events



Thursday, November 10th

And so it is. US presidential elections are over and the next president of the US is Donald Trump. D.Trump’s victory in the elections caused mixed sentiments across the market as a large number of politicians and economists do not share next president’s political views. So now all focus shifts to the implications of the past US elections on the economic and political state of America and the US currency in particular. Moreover, uncertainty around D.Trump’s candidacy may also cause some fluster across the market. However, experts do not await large changes in near-term perspective due to resistance from Congress and that is why the US economy will keep its moderate growth pace around 2%.

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  • #249
  • Nov 11, 2016 5:04am Nov 11, 2016 5:04am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events



Friday, November 11th

Taking into account that D.Trump is the next president of the US many news agencies have already started to digest upcoming impact of the changes related to D.Trumps political views. In the long-term perspective Trumps policy is broadly supporting US currency as upcoming business and personal tax cuts should attract fresh injections in the US economy. Moreover, D.Trumps changes in taxation system should trigger boost of the economic growth and US currencys in particular that also will impact the FX market. However, developments around the upcoming changes remain uncertain, but hopefully D.Trumps actions in a next few weeks will bring more clarity on this measure.

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  • #250
  • Nov 14, 2016 4:57am Nov 14, 2016 4:57am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events



Monday, November 14th

The USD continues to show moderate growing pace across the market majorly supported by post-election sentiments. Trump’s win in the US elections continues to drive the market as now investors are awaiting for fresh stimulus of economic growth. D.Trump during his election campaign has made several announcements that imply tax cuts and increased spending on infrastructure. However, Trump’s announcements bring little of clarity on how such programs will be financed.


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  • #251
  • Nov 15, 2016 4:38am Nov 15, 2016 4:38am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

Stay informed of the key economic events



Tuesday, November 15th

Today the dollar is trading broadly weaker as investors have decided to take the profit off the table after massive post-election rally. However, dollar’s weakness remains capped as dust around election has settled down and rumors of this year Fed’s rate-hike are getting control over the market. Moreover, prospects of additional fiscal stimulus during D.Trump’s presidency are also supporting the US dollar. Today the market is expecting for crucial report of US Retail Sales for another hint of next Fed’s move.

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  • #252
  • Nov 16, 2016 4:55am Nov 16, 2016 4:55am

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Wednesday, November 16th

The euro continues its streak of defeats against US currency loosing points for eighth session in a raw. The dollar has recovered smile after minor price correction seen yesterday as rising chances of Feds hawkish move remain as main support factor for the US dollar. The probability of this year Fed rate-hike has grown up to 90%. Moreover, better risk tone seen last hours also is negatively influencing the EUR/USD pair, sending it to retest key support level of 1.0700 that is the lowest level of this year. Next on tap for the pair remains data bloc from US economy with PPI in the main role.

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  • #253
  • Nov 17, 2016 5:29am Nov 17, 2016 5:29am

Daily economic digest from Forex.ee

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Thursday, November 17th

As US presidential elections are over next and the most commonly discussed question remains - will the Fed increase its interest rate in December under D.Trumps presidency. For now, markets participants are almost sure that the Fed will perform its hawkish move by the end of the year as economic forecast after the elections has not changed. However, talks regarding further stimulation of the fiscal policy remain divided as it is hard to say what impact will provide D.Trumps administration on the US monetary policy. Moreover, it is expected that after next FOMC meeting minutes the Fed will stay in wait-and-see mode to rearrange its economic forecast what is quite logical. Today J.Yellen will state her testimony in NA session which will be closely watched for any hints of what to expect next.

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  • #254
  • Nov 21, 2016 5:06am Nov 21, 2016 5:06am

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Monday, November 21st

The ongoing speculations around upcoming OPEC meeting, where agreement between countries oil exporters about crude oil output freeze could be reached continue to drive the market. Moreover, over the weekend President of the Russian Federation V.Putin stated that there is high probability that OPEC members will reach an agreement on oil output issue as Russia is ready to freeze its oil production at current level. Also V.Putin has noted in his comments that main contradictions among OPEC members, if they still exist, could be eliminated during OPEC meeting. After the statement of Russian President, the oil prices, opened with bullish gap, are lending support to commodity-linked currencies such as Canadian and Australian dollars.

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  • #255
  • Nov 22, 2016 5:51am Nov 22, 2016 5:51am

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Tuesday, November 22nd

And another natural disaster hits Asia but this time earthquake strikes Japanese region near Fukushima nuclear power station. Japanese officials have already calmed down the community noting that there is no danger of radiation leak and the government is ready to deal with any consequences done by nature. Moreover, the Japan Meteorological Agency has also calmed nervousness among investors stating that there is no danger of tsunami caused by earthquake. Reacting on situation in Japan the USD/JPY pair has dropped to 110.27 level as immediately shrank risk sentiments have supported the yen. However, the major has recovered the ground and now is trading back above the level of 111.00 mostly directed by global markets sentiments. With absolutely empty data calendar of Japan the USD/JPY pair today will keep following global risk sentiments and USD dynamic until NA session, when US economy will release housing market data.


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  • #256
  • Nov 23, 2016 5:08am Nov 23, 2016 5:08am

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Wednesday, November 23rd

The Aussie is showing one of the strongest gains this Wednesday. The AUD/USD pair is still trading in bullish trend witnessed since the beginning of this week. Currently the pair is located near the region of its four-day highs marked above the level of 0.7400 despite weaker-than-expected Australian report of Construction Work Done released in Asia. The pair gained support this morning from Chinese business confidence that showed signs of improving second-largest economy that also is Australia’s biggest trading partner. Moreover, continuous risk-on rally is also landing support to the bid tone surrounding higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian Dollar.

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  • #257
  • Nov 24, 2016 5:14am Nov 24, 2016 5:14am

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Wednesday, November 23rd

The Aussie is showing one of the strongest gains this Wednesday. The AUD/USD pair is still trading in bullish trend witnessed since the beginning of this week. Currently the pair is located near the region of its four-day highs marked above the level of 0.7400 despite weaker-than-expected Australian report of Construction Work Done released in Asia. The pair gained support this morning from Chinese business confidence that showed signs of improving second-largest economy that also is Australia’s biggest trading partner. Moreover, continuous risk-on rally is also landing support to the bid tone surrounding higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian Dollar.

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  • #258
  • Nov 25, 2016 5:53am Nov 25, 2016 5:53am

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Friday, November 25th

The yen continues to extend its fall against American counterpart after relatively weak inflation reports witnessed in Asia. Today the USD/JPY pair has met another wave of buying pressure nearly reaching the 114 spot and refreshing its 8-months high after Japanese consumer price data met markets expectation showing subsidence of the inflation rate in October and November. Such results cast doubt on BoJs forecast of inflations 2% growth rate in the next year. However, the pair has rebounded from its multi-month highs and now is trading near the region of 113 on the back of US dollars correction across the market. Today the pair will remain under bullish pressure as markets continue to digest the latest Japanese CPI figures.


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  • #259
  • Nov 28, 2016 5:02am Nov 28, 2016 5:02am

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Monday, November 28th

The US dollar index is losing some points at the start of this week extending its correction rally. Last week the dollar showed sharply stronger performances against basket of major currencies reaching the highest level for the last 13-years, marked at 102 spot, as ongoing speculations over the Fed rate-hike were significantly boosting US dollars bulls. However, as market participants have already priced in next Feds hawkish interest rate decision the dollar has gradually begun to retreat from its multiyear highs. Moreover, today oils price downside rally has eased traders risk appetite thereby landing some bearish pressure on the dollar across the market.

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  • #260
  • Nov 29, 2016 5:11am Nov 29, 2016 5:11am

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Tuesday, November 29th

Nervousness around upcoming OPEC meeting is significantly influencing the market. This morning became known that Iran is ready to reach a deal in oil production freeze question. Today Irans Minister of Petroleum stated that Iran is ready to cut oil production within OPEC quotas. Moreover, Irans Minister of Petroleum noted that the US election results did not affect new contracts for oil and gas that is why an agreement could be reached. On the other hand, Russian Minister of energy provided the market with comments that Russia is not going to take part in the OPEC meeting as it remains non-OPEC member. Today market participants will continue to pay attention to developments surrounding the upcoming OPEC meeting that is scheduled for tomorrow, 30th of November.


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