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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,621
  • Oct 29, 2016 3:50am Oct 29, 2016 3:50am
Quoting sisse
First my sincere congratulation to Fadhl ... Fantastic !!!! You managed to play every single one of the iteration and without making much noise you slowly became the most consistent trader (over 130 in total) in terms of decision making even if you went against the flow a couple of times. I don't know much about you, but I know you were looking for something here and you really grasped and improved your consistency a lot. Very well done a return of 229% is not an easy thing to achieve. If you are trading live, you should be very proud, if you don'r...
It was nice expirience and pitty I didn't join in sooner. Hope we get to hear more about timing, it is one of the tuffest nuts in trading, imo. Everything else you can measure. Top , bottom, risk, RR...everything except timing.

But anyway, yes, beers for everyone!
PVSRA
  • #144,622
  • Oct 29, 2016 7:58am Oct 29, 2016 7:58am
Hi everyone. Even though I am not an contributor to this thread. I follow it closely. This is probably the only thread on any forex forum I know about, that is worth following.

Firstly because of Sisse sharing his knowledge. But, also because of several other contributors/participants to the thread. Many of you have come leaps and bounds and are transforming into good traders.

It is just a relief to follow this thread compared to most of the other threads around. Sound discussion and market talk in focus. The things you find in other forex threads, that makes you stay away, is almost none exsistent here.

KUTGW everyone in this thread. Beers for all, is well deserved.

Okay, enough love for now...
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #144,623
  • Oct 29, 2016 9:00am Oct 29, 2016 9:00am
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled a bearish daily close in the Euro and neutral in W but we couldn't lock the 1.11xx handle yet ...we'll see how it plays on Monday .... sisse
Did you mean "bullish"? and weekly neutral in comparison to the previous week? If you really meant "bearish", can you explain, please? Thanks!
  • #144,624
  • Oct 29, 2016 10:46am Oct 29, 2016 10:46am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Did you mean "bullish"? and weekly neutral in comparison to the previous week? If you really meant "bearish", can you explain, please? Thanks!
In simple say it's choose your poison time ... For both short and mid term this is what I understand ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,625
  • Oct 29, 2016 10:54am Oct 29, 2016 10:54am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Did you mean "bullish"? and weekly neutral in comparison to the previous week? If you really meant "bearish", can you explain, please? Thanks!
We are still in sell Outlook both mid and short term, but retrace up is possible, so short term expensve short tickets here ( in sell short from inside and upper extreme), but USD remains bullish until after DEC FED.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiDaily 29.10..png Size: 65 KB
PVSRA
  • #144,626
  • Oct 29, 2016 11:29am Oct 29, 2016 11:29am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} We are still in sell Outlook both mid and short term, but retrace up is possible, so short term expensve short tickets here ( in sell short from inside and upper extreme), but USD remains bullish until after DEC FED. {image}
Agreed

Obviously dollar is super sensitive to the election right now, so anymore headlines in regards to Hillary bowing out or being convicted will create another wtf.

After that GDP I expected EU to drop below 1.0870 and either close at or below for the week. That headline created a weekly WTF candle- that actually reminds me of the roll play daily candle myself and earlobe lost on....

Really would have preferred a different circumstance other than rumors. Whatever; I welcome a bounce so I'm on the lookout for new shorting opportunities into December, from there I plan to start looking for buys.
  • #144,627
  • Oct 29, 2016 12:24pm Oct 29, 2016 12:24pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Agreed Obviously dollar is super sensitive to the election right now, so anymore headlines in regards to Hillary bowing out or being convicted will create another wtf. After that GDP I expected EU to drop below 1.0870 and either close at or below for the week. That headline created a weekly WTF candle- that actually reminds me of the roll play daily candle myself and earlobe lost on.... Really would have preferred a different circumstance other than rumors. Whatever; I welcome a bounce so I'm on the lookout for new shorting opportunities...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiH4 Next week possible looking for shorts area 29.10..png Size: 65 KB

You can never say never and I would not at all be afraid to short again from previous breakdown area.
IMO, we should keep it as simple as possible in trading and not jump at every news, but follow basic FA only , draw a map and look for topping out clues in certain areas according to our TA ( in sync with our map). Election and everything else is just tweets (like the one on Friday- drop dead funny) that can come at any time at any day and do not change the Outlook. The outlook would change the facts like end of QE in Europe..
PVSRA
  • #144,628
  • Oct 29, 2016 12:34pm Oct 29, 2016 12:34pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} {image} You can never say never and I would not at all be afraid to short again from previous breakdown area. IMO, we should keep it as simple as possible in trading and not jump at every news, but follow basic FA only , draw a map and look for topping out clues in certain areas according to our TA ( in sync with our map). Election and everything else is just tweets (like the one on Friday- drop dead funny) that can come at any time at any day and do not change the Outlook. The outlook would change the facts like end of QE in Europe.....
That would be really a nice entry only if it enter the zone ... Everything is possible but I don't see a breach above 1.104xx, as politics is riding right know ... One is brexit and the other the US election .. fa nos are being graved and markets right now ignoring all fa nos ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,629
  • Oct 29, 2016 12:37pm Oct 29, 2016 12:37pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} {image} You can never say never and I would not at all be afraid to short again from previous breakdown area. IMO, we should keep it as simple as possible in trading and not jump at every news, but follow basic FA only , draw a map and look for topping out clues in certain areas according to our TA ( in sync with our map). Election and everything else is just tweets (like the one on Friday- drop dead funny) that can come at any time at any day and do not change the Outlook. The outlook would change the facts like end of QE in Europe.....
Agreed as to the noise. Id like to short that previous break down area as well
  • #144,630
  • Oct 29, 2016 12:42pm Oct 29, 2016 12:42pm
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} That would be really a nice entry only if it enter the zone ... Everything is possible but I don't see a breach above 1.104xx, as politics is riding right know ... One is brexit and the other the US election .. fa nos are being graved and markets right now ignoring all fa nos ...
If i learned anything last 4 years it is that never underestimate SM. It can come to the zone in 4 hours in low liquidity times like AS or after LC, but it can also never come there...so we wait and see. If it gets there fine, if not -fine too. So let's just wait and see. Luckily there are other instruments to trade as well. And luckily we learned to draw our maps nicely last few months, so no problem for us.
PVSRA
  • #144,631
  • Oct 29, 2016 12:46pm Oct 29, 2016 12:46pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} If i learned anything last 4 years it is that never underestimate SM. It can come to the zone in 4 hours in low liquidity times like AS or after LC, but it can also never come there...so we wait and see. If it gets there fine, if not -fine too. So let's just wait and see. Luckily there are other instruments to trade as well. And luckily we learned to draw our maps nicely last few months, so no problem for us.
Even I am also fine with reaching the zone or not ... But I really like the last line you mention ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,632
  • Oct 29, 2016 5:34pm Oct 29, 2016 5:34pm
...concerning the discussion of recent bond movements, a little bit on Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...in-global-rout
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #144,633
  • Oct 30, 2016 5:24am Oct 30, 2016 5:24am
XAUUSD ( Gold )

I been making an map for long term with a channel.
Outlook long term buy
Extremes at bottom and top of the channel that is formed.

I have not specified the historical outlook. But long term by this view it Should have been sell / soft sell / Neutral from winther 2013 where I have marked the flip from uptrend to downtrend .

Downtrend broken february 2016 ( Flip to uptrend )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSDWeekly.png Size: 50 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,634
  • Edited 1:48pm Oct 30, 2016 11:03am | Edited 1:48pm
--> Weekend post for the 4th time this year. We obviously have the political drama in the US from Friday to track this week. As widely expected, things were not going to be that easy especially against a humilliated power house $$$ in the other side ...

Trump zombies and not only them making a feast of a shamefully poor timed (WTF? didn't the FBI have months to reopen the investigation but 10 days before elections????...smell fishy very fishy) investigation ...The US will have to look deep in detail the FBI 'neutrality' after election whoever is the winner ....

--> But the actual weekend post before the open is one more time via STERLING. Strong rumours of Carney being 'forced out' by the government ...apparently he is not 'english enough' for his position....

Watch-out the open as the BOE single handle has keep the UK economy afloat since the vote and markets will react heavily if he step down and replace by a political puppet....eyeballing GU 1.17xx for years end in another panic leg.... For now keeping short term outlook in sell but it will change to extreme sell automatically if confirmed in the next few hours...

Good weekend all ...

sisse

Quoting Fisher755
..., bottom, risk, RR...everything except timing. Bu
You have a great option to learn a trick or two about timing in front of you with the Euro. I am not going to go in details right now but let me ask you a few questions/ hints ...it may trigger something.

 

  1. First, Forget about everything else except timing. So don't care your map for the trade, your entries, nothing.
  2. Second, this you can call "timing map" . We have the mid term swing under way and the next short term swing leg in the oven...
  3. Are you trading expectations? ...Think like an economist/investor:

    1. Lets assume you are trading the full RMT leg. You need to keep everything else 'ceteris paribus' (constant) otherwise you will be stuck in "paralysis by over analysis"

Map your timing.

  1. When is the final day (when expectations will become a fact) for that play?...right Dec FED, isn't it? so you have your finishing line.
  2. Would you agree with this statement "Euro will be trading around the 1.06xx by DEC 2016?"
  3. Lets assume that is your premise. So can you mark the major ebb and flow in that front from today till DEC? ... let me give you a quick 3 or 4 so you get the concept:

  1. FED NOV
  2. US ELECTIONS
  3. NEXT ECB
  4. FED DEC

Draw your TIMING MAP flow (don't care about your levels, charts, or anything ...JUST TIMING) .... FED NOV inline nothing new should cap the retrace, what about if its a major dovish ....?

... When do you think Risk will fade and give Dollar the go ahead? ...election right...Clinton winning and we are back to business to complete the leg ..what happens if US descend into political chaos or the nutter wins ? ...

.... You wonder how would you position for the trades (not TA wise neither chart wise...jsut timing)...no brainer you have your calendar ...wonder about where momentum could develop ? ...well no brainer we have 2 NFPs in between ... What would happens if we overshoot? ...or undershoot? ,... can you spot the general flow ...

GL

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,635
  • Oct 30, 2016 11:24am Oct 30, 2016 11:24am
Well, if Trump wins at least we'll have a buying opportunity across equities and USD/XXX in 4 years

well, if the world is still around that is

I'll still admit, markets aside- of the 3, Hillary is my last choice. Then I'm also a bit extreme in that I don't think there is any salvation left for the US other than a reset. *puts crazy back in the box*
  • #144,636
  • Oct 30, 2016 12:30pm Oct 30, 2016 12:30pm
Quoting sisse
-->WTF? didn't the FBI have months to reopen the investigation but 10 days before elections????...smell fishy very fishy) investigation ...The US will have to look deep in detail the FBI 'neutrality' after election whoever is the winner ....
it's a madhouse. The hive mind media and bot-run markets make trading ^VIX surprises impossible now, unless there is a promise of persistence, which I have to bet there will be now until election week at least, if not beyond.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,637
  • Oct 30, 2016 12:40pm Oct 30, 2016 12:40pm
Quoting sisse
--> Weekend post for the 4th time this year. We obviously have the political drama in the US from Friday to track this week. As widely expected, things were not going to be that easy especially against a humilliated power house $$$ in the other side ... Trump zombies and not only them making a feast of a shamefully poor timed (WTF? didn't the FBI have months to reopen the investigation but 10 days before elections????...smell fishy very fishy) investigation ...The US will have to look deep in detail the FBI 'neutrality' after election whoever is...
Sorry, nope, I don't think I know how to map the timing...that's the reson why I wanted to learn more about it. It would be great to have example like the Neutral or Sell Outlook universal map examples..
PVSRA
  • #144,638
  • Oct 30, 2016 12:40pm Oct 30, 2016 12:40pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} It was nice expirience and pitty I didn't join in sooner. Hope we get to hear more about timing, it is one of the tuffest nuts in trading, imo. Everything else you can measure. Top , bottom, risk, RR...everything except timing. But anyway, yes, beers for everyone!
sisse wrote perfect explanation. just maybe a hint which helps me a lot. add vertical lines to your chart. It perfectly shows you the spots of news and you can project the leg or the temporary short-circuiting of the leg or a game changer in a broader context of price and other news. just an example: my short term E/U chart. You nicely see where are gonna be spots of your trading interest and also broader context.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 36 KB
  • #144,639
  • Oct 30, 2016 12:47pm Oct 30, 2016 12:47pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} sisse wrote perfect explanation. just maybe a hint which helps me a lot. add vertical lines to your chart. It perfectly shows you the spots of news and you can project the leg or the temporary short-circuiting of the leg or a game changer in a broader context of price and other news. just an example: my short term E/U chart. You nicely see where are gonna be spots of your trading interest and also broader context. {image}
PVSRA
  • #144,640
  • Oct 30, 2016 1:43pm Oct 30, 2016 1:43pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}it's a madhouse. The hive mind media and bot-run markets make trading ^VIX surprises impossible now, unless there is a promise of persistence, which I have to bet there will be now until election week at least, if not beyond.
I don't mind that much about bots at least for my trading style but what really gets into my nerves is fck politicians meddling with markets. Since 2008 and especially since the Debt crisis they have become everyday problems...when politicians gets involve....markets always gets screwed by BS and usually the average Joe gets to pay the bill if things go wrong....

Quoting chester123
{quote} sisse wrote perfect explanation. just maybe a hint which helps me a lot. add vertical lines to your chart...
Thanks Chester....no further comments you got 100% the point ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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