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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,561
  • Oct 28, 2016 7:27am Oct 28, 2016 7:27am
097x or .0808
  • #144,562
  • Oct 28, 2016 7:30am Oct 28, 2016 7:30am
Good news is good, bad news is bad scenario.

Actually looking for AUD to be the mover via Dollar- it's looking for a breakout. On EU short term map 1.0970 is naked for a test on undershoot, with zigzag as high as 1.112x over the next week.

overshoot 1.082x expected for momentum play with zigzag to 1.075x over the next week

Inline- chop
  • #144,563
  • Oct 28, 2016 7:30am Oct 28, 2016 7:30am
overshoot ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,564
  • Oct 28, 2016 7:35am Oct 28, 2016 7:35am
Watch-out, GOLD losing 1265.x as it will carry the board first via Cable and Euro in that order for NY ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,565
  • Oct 28, 2016 7:36am Oct 28, 2016 7:36am
Am i seeing what i'm seeing? Something else happened at the same time or wtf?
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #144,566
  • Oct 28, 2016 7:44am Oct 28, 2016 7:44am
A couple of pointers while NY sit in the table and to keep track until the European close.

For those in Sterling pairs. More noise from UK this time for N.Ireland and article 50, etc but more importantly Microsoft and Apple announcing a massive increase of 20% of all prices in the UK. The important point is that it has triggered a domino effect in all companies jumping in on board. 20% is a lot and translate to the consumer it will hit fast and hard.

Expecting a strong reaction for the BOE next week ... and putting Sterling in maximum alert for a change of outlook in the short term for the first time since January via the BOE.

Also lots of TA updates in play starting from the European close ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,567
  • Oct 28, 2016 7:46am Oct 28, 2016 7:46am
Quoting sisse
A couple of pointers while NY sit in the table and to keep track until the European close. For those in Sterling pairs. More noise from UK this time for N.Ireland and article 50, etc but more importantly Microsoft and Apple announcing a massive increase of 20% of all prices in the UK. The important point is that it has triggered a domino effect in all companies jumping in on board. 20% is a lot and translate to the consumer it will hit fast and hard. Expecting a strong reaction for the BOE next week ... and putting Sterling in maximum alert...
omg

Kind of a dick move...poor blokes in UK. Then again, looks like the surrounding countries will get an influx of purchases from UK masses.

Might be a good time to be selling full price iphones (with free shipping to uk) on ebay
  • #144,568
  • Oct 28, 2016 7:52am Oct 28, 2016 7:52am
Quoting manosk
{quote} What you say about the correlation of bonds and risk on/off is correct under normal market conditions and would be correct if QE had not distorted the markets. QE and the crazy buying of bonds and by extension equities has greatly distorted markets to the point that risk off means these days selling everything bonds and equities (may big bond traders have warned about the bubble - lately El-Erian). The only difference is that selling in bonds precipitates selling in equities because traditionally traders of bonds are smarter and closer to...
Thank you for your reply- and thank you Commercial for bringing up the conversation.

sisse, I'd like to see your input as well when you've got a bit. Perhaps better for aftermarket
  • #144,569
  • Oct 28, 2016 8:03am Oct 28, 2016 8:03am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} omg Kind of a dick move...poor blokes in UK.
Same thing happened in Russia when their currency was dropping by end of 2015/Jan 2016, Apple increased the price on their products.
  • #144,570
  • Oct 28, 2016 8:10am Oct 28, 2016 8:10am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Thank you for your reply- and thank you Commercial for bringing up the conversation. sisse, I'd like to see your input as well when you've got a bit. Perhaps better for aftermarket
Yes I read the comment but I left it for later cause news and NY. We'll comment in detail and open the discussion as this is a proper market point.

Quoting CommercialB
.... I'd like to add that I have a very basic understanding of bonds and any insights of others are most welcome (but might have to be suitably dumbed down
Quoting manosk
QE and the crazy buying of bonds and by extension equities has greatly distorted markets to the point that risk off means these days selling everything bonds and equities (may big bond traders have warned about the bubble - lately El-Erian). The only difference is that selling in bonds precipitates selling in equities because traditionally traders of bonds are smarter a...
Well quickly before we go into details in a nutshell what you are referring is 2 different things that are in play at the same time thats why its a bit confusing.

--> The first is the monetary part of the move that was finally triggered by the UK GDP numbers.

  1. Here we have US Hikes confirmed for this year and solid numbers from US for 2 or 3 hikes next year.
  2. We have the end of full QE in ECB (with also gossips from last month) with solid numbers from the EZ meaning (without brexit just monetary policy wise) the door for the QE end/limit for late next year is around the corner. Remember we trade expectations not fact. So when that door opens....
  3. The UK held Q3 preliminary numbers thanks to the BOE and Sterling with the current news of prices starting to get out of scope with inflation it (again without brexit just monetary policy wise) kicked the can for BOE not action

So when you have the end of QEs and hikes on site ...the reaction of bonds was simple.

...TBC

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,571
  • Oct 28, 2016 8:20am Oct 28, 2016 8:20am
Here we go for NY. In the Euro 1.086x for the roll. Losing 1.0970 on the M close locks all levels till 1.11xx handle and will set the high of the Quarter....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,572
  • Oct 28, 2016 8:33am Oct 28, 2016 8:33am
Quoting sisse
{quote} We have the end of full QE in ECB (with also gossips from last month) with solid numbers from the EZ meaning (without brexit just monetary policy wise) the door for the QE end/limit for late next year is around the corner.
Do you really think that Ecb will close the door of QE on march 2017 .... or start tapering after march 2017 .... ?
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,573
  • Oct 28, 2016 9:43am Oct 28, 2016 9:43am
That was it for the opening range. All news digested and we are ready for the W/M combo. Only technical plays in the next couple of sessions.

For those in the Euro, for the 3er time this month the traditional 'choose your poison time' in the short term from the European close ...

Key closes coming for today ... GL all trading, managing trades or planning to load ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,574
  • Oct 28, 2016 10:17am Oct 28, 2016 10:17am
Quoting sisse
That was it for the opening range. All news digested and we are ready for the W/M combo. Only technical plays in the next couple of sessions. For those in the Euro, for the 3er time this month the traditional 'choose your poison time' in the short term from the European close ... Key closes coming for today ... GL all trading, managing trades or planning to load .... sisse
choose d (reloaded) got a minor stop on the previous trigger ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,575
  • Oct 28, 2016 10:42am Oct 28, 2016 10:42am
I honestly misread this news flow and its obviously more MACRO things going on in the market. An overshoot in US #'s didn't even trigger the RMT play for the European session combined with NY.

TA wise .097X may be in play but not sure why when a FA piece of data of good US news should have broke down the EU farther. I had .097X in play for undershoot and .082X/.0808 for overshoot.

This is very confusing as the iteration is 4 days old and TIME would say the EU not making it back over .0978 should seal the deal for Q/M/W roll and the news in itself should have led it to .083X at the very least. I know sisse is showing .086X but PA was around .092X at news time and 100 pip move in EU is not out of the question and normal ATR so I would have thought with an overshoot .0808 was fair game.

Nothing to do but sit and wait....I know Market Direction and Outlook so I am not concerned just perplexed price didn't get pushed to finish the RMT play.
  • #144,576
  • Oct 28, 2016 10:53am Oct 28, 2016 10:53am
Quoting sisse
{quote}...So when you have the end of QEs and hikes on site ...the reaction of bonds was simple....TBC sisse
Well since you put it that way it does appear logical, and any reading up I've done in the meantime would corroborate that view (was a very good one in FT but when I checked if the link still worked before posting it now appears gated, no matter).

One thing I certainly wasn't considering was an ECB withdrawal of stimulus anytime soon, but rather an extension beyond March along with a broadening of assets to be purchased (also with current higher yields more bonds are now eligible due to being above the ECB minimum yield thresholds)....is this not what ECB & Draghi were signaling? So if bond markets are seeing even further out beyond that timescale and reacting already now then it sure must be true that they are the first indicators! (Btw I was discounting the ECB Taper leak as mere uncorroborated rumour, whereas sisse I know you take it as a deliberate plant by Draghi to prepare markets and on consideration I think I'd better defer to your judgement here! ).

Also while better GB figures reduce the likelihood of BOE increasing stimulus or cutting rates in the short term, is it not still the more likely scenario that BOE will be forced into providing additional stimulus of some kind further down the road which would be bond positive? ...for Gilts at least? ...so why aren't the bond markets looking that far ahead here instead of reacting as if any future stimulus and/or rate cuts are off the table? (btw I know you specifically excluded the Brexit impacts to simplify your explanation which worked 100% for me ha ha! , BUT ...when we realistically add the probable negative Brexit effects coming down the road, I'd imagine the chances of BOE or ECB stimulus ending any time soon seem remote)

Thanks for your time and others' explaining stuff ...I feel like IMARICH1 in that all I have is questions and no answers but I suppose that's where it all has to start!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #144,577
  • Oct 28, 2016 11:28am Oct 28, 2016 11:28am
Watching GOLD. Last time it lost the 1265 area it was quickly bought up. Let's see if we get a rinse and repeat or a rinse and wash out to give EU a push.
  • #144,578
  • Oct 28, 2016 11:43am Oct 28, 2016 11:43am
Quoting IMARICH1
I honestly misread this news flow and its obviously more MACRO things going on in the market. An overshoot in US #'s didn't even trigger the RMT play for the European session combined with NY. TA wise .097X may be in play but not sure why when a FA piece of data of good US news should have broke down the EU farther. I had .097X in play for undershoot and .082X/.0808 for overshoot. This is very confusing as the iteration is 4 days old and TIME would say the EU not making it back over .0978 should seal the deal for Q/M/W roll and the news in itself...
What does the AWR and AMR say? We may have already moved through the range and be extended
  • #144,579
  • Oct 28, 2016 12:04pm Oct 28, 2016 12:04pm
Europe going home with a rather soft session. All cards on the table for the FED/election combo first. European Equities closing in soft tone but holding on the good round of reports this month across most fronts. Commodities coming for the close set to form a cluster fck for the rest of the year with Gold caught between risk and hikes and Oil between Opec, good numbers and RMT pullback ....

Nothing new so far with nothing to update so same levels, same trades, same all till the close ....

sisse

Quoting IMARICH1
I honestly misread this news flow and its obviously more ....
I was about to congratulate you for your flow in the map as it was prolly the first time you sound clear to the point, confident and spot on....

Let me ask you (you prolly going to hate when i say this) what do you think are the odds that you have seen the high of the Q already and prolly even the Day at the top of the hour?...

Despite being right or wrong in your last map, don't doubt yourself. !!!!..we have moved 28 ticks !!!! from the open in the European session ...you are getting too close again. In simple words, we haven't even move yet ....

There is major flows in play for the rest of the year on the M close, you were expecting a sharp knee reaction on a headline while the moves cooking across the board are far beyond the report today and more importantly you should take a screaming reconfirmation signal of what is cooking if bulls fail to take the handle in the next couple of sessions...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,580
  • Oct 28, 2016 12:17pm Oct 28, 2016 12:17pm
More HRC email bombs & stocks dropped like lead donut.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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