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  • #144,541
  • Oct 27, 2016 8:12am Oct 27, 2016 8:12am
USDCHF with overlay Gold.

Does it tell anything?

The correlation from my table don't show strong correlation.

But eyeballing this one when it is the big moves tell me something else..
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Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFWeekly.png Size: 56 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,542
  • Oct 27, 2016 8:15am Oct 27, 2016 8:15am
Quoting Pharm0r
Lol @ CHF being the "safe haven". Good lord how things change in a year huh? Irony... Trading the banded rates sounds like a dream come true...until the bottom falls out 2,000 pips. I'd imagine it'd be worth a lot of money to know where those pegs sit across various currencies.
????... Not really sure what you mean. CHF was, is and will be for the foreseeable future the standard for haven.

A band is always made public by the CB. Thats the whole point of having a band. Also in the case of SNB last time, they made it publicly that will defend the band floor ...until a few billion CHF later they couldn't/didn't ...SNB has pretty much destroyed CHF for trading since the Debt crisis began...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,543
  • Oct 27, 2016 8:28am Oct 27, 2016 8:28am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ????... Not really sure what you mean. CHF was, is and will be for the foreseeable future the standard for haven. A band is always made public by the CB. Thats the whole point of having a band. Also in the case of SNB last time, they made it publicly that will defend the band floor ...until a few billion CHF later they couldn't/didn't ...SNB has pretty much destroyed CHF for trading since the Debt crisis began... sisse
That is the irony I mean
  • #144,544
  • Oct 27, 2016 11:18am Oct 27, 2016 11:18am
shorting UK100 a bit from WPP 7010 (not risking much)
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #144,545
  • Oct 27, 2016 11:36am Oct 27, 2016 11:36am
Quoting sisse
..and I will take in UJ. Clearing second target in UJ on the test 103.8x...a break unlocks momentum to final target of the leg..
...and GAME, SET, MATCH in UJ ...clearing final target on the test 105.3x in the short term swing ...only v. soft mid term positions left for the 'just in case' clean sweep to the 109.xx handle this year (very doubtful)...in all cases is trailing time for tomorrow news.

Well done all those who rode it ...i know a few in the thread ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,546
  • Oct 27, 2016 11:59am Oct 27, 2016 11:59am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...and GAME, SET, MATCH in UJ ...clearing final target on the test 105.3x in the short term swing ...only v. soft mid term positions left for the 'just in case' clean sweep to the 109.xx handle this year (very doubtful)...in all cases is trailing time for tomorrow news. Well done all those who rode it ...i know a few in the thread .... sisse
Good call
  • #144,547
  • Oct 27, 2016 12:18pm Oct 27, 2016 12:18pm
Missed an entry ... In eu...
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,548
  • Oct 27, 2016 12:28pm Oct 27, 2016 12:28pm
Knock Knock ...Who's there? ... risk ....a very very very moving day on key markets.

Final main shift for the year cooking for this W/M roll. All key major risk assets including a rather moving sessions in the Bond markets feeling very unease this week and today we reached important tremors. US GDP will close the chapter.

We are entering in transition phase for Q4 until US election is completely cleared. On the hikes front is all pretty much done and well underway. Only a major fck up or a surprise FED Nov will disturb the normal flows.

On the UK front, major banks and companies showing the big guns this week and really shaking the UK government back to reality. Expecting a quick reaction from the UK Government talking heads giving unconditionally and no string attach A LOT of Bargains, Freebies, Carrots and whatever big multinational companies and banks asked in the upcoming weeks while at the same time a full scale attack against Scotland and N.Ireland...

If not ...the cliff barrier is already open just need a soft push and markets, big business and banks have now the upper-hand to just push it down...

My reading, we are just witnessing this week real smart money pre positioning for after election / full brexit BS mode ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,549
  • Oct 27, 2016 12:47pm Oct 27, 2016 12:47pm
Quoting sisse
... My reading, we are just witnessing this week real smart money pre positioning for after election / full brexit BS mode ... sisse
Would you mind chewing that down a bit more? How so?
  • #144,550
  • Oct 27, 2016 4:18pm Oct 27, 2016 4:18pm
...and we rolled...no surprises across the board all still in synch for tomorrow GDP W/M close combo...

Highlight of the day outside the bond markets, a very positive news from the EU (it has been a while since the 'very good' word pop ups from the EZ) that seem to finally get back to their senses and the trade deal with Canada seems to be on track. Important news for the mid/long term not only because it unlocks a huge steps toward the trade agreement with the US but added to the clear positive pick up in the EZ economy last quarter.

Both are 2 key bases to form a long term bottom in the Euro ....for now all hikes, QE, banks and risk on the EZ driver seat...

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Would you mind chewing that down a bit more? How so?
Bonds don't move like that on a market hiccup ...they lead major moves we have mentioned a few times in the thread. In the short term is positioning before US elections which is the safest bet in case we get a WTF moment with the random macho guy winning...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,551
  • Oct 27, 2016 5:45pm Oct 27, 2016 5:45pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled...no surprises across the board all still in synch for tomorrow GDP W/M close combo... Highlight of the day outside the bond markets, a very positive news from the EU (it has been a while since the 'very good' word pop ups from the EZ) that seem to finally get back to their senses and the trade deal with Canada seems to be on track. Important news for the mid/long term not only because it unlocks a huge steps toward the trade agreement with the US but added to the clear positive pick up in the EZ economy last quarter. Both are 2...
Yup, on board. Didnt realize you were talking bonds
  • #144,552
  • Edited 7:08pm Oct 27, 2016 6:35pm | Edited 7:08pm
Quoting sisse
.. Highlight of the day outside the bond markets, a very positive news from the EU
Turns out it's harder than some had anticipated to break a Walloon.
  • #144,553
  • Oct 27, 2016 10:51pm Oct 27, 2016 10:51pm
Quoting The Fool
spoos stumbling along in a 20-pt range m/l the last month+, I guess it shoulda been easy to see risk assets would lock down until after the election. I still think US stocks are poised for healthy breakout & runup to the end of the year, so long as news from overseas does not spoil Christmas.
Get ready to cheer the best five days of the year for stocks

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=612726
  • #144,554
  • Oct 28, 2016 1:14am Oct 28, 2016 1:14am
Quoting USD-Bear
shorting UK100 a bit from WPP 7010 (not risking much)
stop @ BE
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #144,555
  • Oct 28, 2016 2:57am Oct 28, 2016 2:57am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ????... Not really sure what you mean. CHF was, is and will be for the foreseeable future the standard for haven. A band is always made public by the CB. Thats the whole point of having a band. Also in the case of SNB last time, they made it publicly that will defend the band floor ...until a few billion CHF later they couldn't/didn't ...SNB has pretty much destroyed CHF for trading since the Debt crisis began... sisse
Actually "destroyed CHF for trading" depends on what side you are...I would be buying CHF like mad at this level of UF. Dollar is way too strong compared to CHF so this is a good trade in my eyes, till SNB decides they cannot hold the floor and we will have another collapse of EF.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #144,556
  • Oct 28, 2016 3:43am Oct 28, 2016 3:43am
With US elections less than 2 weeks away and the uncertainty of Brexit, how much sway will the pending US GDP report have? Aside from a big surprise I don't see a break in either direction until the elections are over. Maybe someone else with more experience could provide more insight?
  • #144,557
  • Oct 28, 2016 5:18am Oct 28, 2016 5:18am
Quoting sisse
Highlight of the day outside the bond markets,... Bonds don't move like that on a market hiccup ...they lead major moves we have mentioned a few times in the thread. In the short term is positioning before US elections which is the safest bet in case we get a WTF moment with the random macho guy winning... sisse
Again something I'm not understanding from recent posts pertaining to bonds and risk. I understood that bond prices were dropping & hence rates rising due to the increasingly perceived views of smart money that inflation was showing signs of normalizing and rising, gradual return to a steepening yield curve, upcoming Fed hikes in Dec & beyond etc. This direct correlation between bond yields and for example the expected future inflation rates was a simple one to understand for
me, ie bonds become less attractive over the longer term and buyers require higher bond yields to compensate for higher inflation rate expectations.

However sisse & others have been mentioning risk with regard to bonds and CHF recently (and here I'm assuming it is risk OFF that's meant), and sisse specifically alluded to the fact that risk was returning as recent bond activity was signaling (as I understood it).
"Knock Knock ...Who's there? ... risk ....a very very very moving day on key markets. Final main shift for the year cooking for this W/M roll. All key major risk assets including a rather moving sessions in the Bond markets feeling very unease this week and today we reached important tremors."
But surely if risk OFF is in play the normal reaction of bond prices would be to rise on safe haven demand and not drop as has been the recent trend!? (I'm referring to US 2's, 10's & 30's for example). OR .. is it a more Machiavellian scenario whereby "informed" money are dumping/shorting bonds temporarily (while "word on the street" is that it's due to upcoming Fed hikes/inflation etc), but all the while in anticipation of an upcoming risk OFF period when they'll be buying them back more cheaply? What I'm saying is I don't grasp how a risk OFF scenario would be causing bond prices to drop as they have been recently, or at least the US 2's for short term risk. I'd like to add that I have a very basic understanding of bonds and any insights of others are most welcome (but might have to be suitably dumbed down a bit for me maybe ha ha ).
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #144,558
  • Oct 28, 2016 6:03am Oct 28, 2016 6:03am
Quoting CommercialB
{quote} Again something I'm not understanding from recent posts pertaining to bonds and risk. I understood that bond prices were dropping & hence rates rising due to the increasingly perceived views of smart money that inflation was showing signs of normalizing and rising, gradual return to a steepening yield curve, upcoming Fed hikes in Dec & beyond etc. This direct correlation between bond yields and for example the expected future inflation rates was a simple one to understand for me, ie bonds become less attractive over the longer term and buyers...
What you say about the correlation of bonds and risk on/off is correct under normal market conditions and would be correct if QE had not distorted the markets. QE and the crazy buying of bonds and by extension equities has greatly distorted markets to the point that risk off means these days selling everything bonds and equities (may big bond traders have warned about the bubble - lately El-Erian). The only difference is that selling in bonds precipitates selling in equities because traditionally traders of bonds are smarter and closer to reality, fighting in the front line.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #144,559
  • Oct 28, 2016 6:11am Oct 28, 2016 6:11am
Quoting manosk
{quote} What you say about the correlation of bonds and risk on/off is correct under normal market conditions and would be correct if QE had not distorted the markets. QE and the crazy buying of bonds and by extension equities has greatly distorted markets to the point that risk off means these days selling everything bonds and equities (may big bond traders have warned about the bubble - lately El-Arian). The only difference is that selling in bonds precipitates selling in equities because traditionally traders of bonds are smarter and closer to...
Yes that is a consideration, markets and "normal" behaviour have of course become distorted by such massive CB policies .. all inputs much appreciated thanks!
The spoken word is your master, the unspoken word your slave.
  • #144,560
  • Oct 28, 2016 7:21am Oct 28, 2016 7:21am
Eyes on the news to close the Month.

Basic flows expected. More than the news itself, markets fighting key levels in key markets.

Inline or better for continuation, flop and worst is zigzag in play till the FED. A soft inline will probably kill the day and unlock W/M close plays in Equities, Commodities and Bonds. While an overshoot unlock direct hit in the Dollar completing the RMT leg right on time for the FED and elections.

In the Euro, a no brainer map for the flows ... so lets invite Pharm0r, IMARICH1 or anyboy to in the next 5 minutes tell us the potential map levels for the news flow.


sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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