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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,521
  • Oct 26, 2016 1:23pm Oct 26, 2016 1:23pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} on what timeframe do I look ? I pick this no brainer swing based on W/M current price Sell lmt 1.457x >> TP 1.415x // STP 1.473x !
I think that he means EURCHF not EURCAD.
  • #144,522
  • Oct 26, 2016 1:24pm Oct 26, 2016 1:24pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} That's weird, I don't recall 1.1200 being referenced in any fundamental news or reports Guess we'll just have to see how it shakes out, 1.0851 was a very old missed norm for over 1.6xxx, but that's just mofu mumbo jumbo, there's another one lower. Admittedly neither of those are my finds The correct number for me is 1.12635 for me to short actually, but I'd settle for 1.12218
That level has been playing as pivot for many many months ...what I meant is that if the swing short mid term momentum lays down 1.12xx in general thus my

conviction that it won't visit that handle again at least with no game changer in sight on both sides for EUR/USD til we clear FED/Brexit/DB etc...

Rates pricing in didn't hit more than 75% for Dec and I am still expecting a deeper explanation from Sisse on how the pricing in process works in terms of swings .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,523
  • Oct 26, 2016 1:26pm Oct 26, 2016 1:26pm
Quoting hellohell
{quote} I think that he means EURCHF not EURCAD.
My fault , I didn't pay attention thanks for pointing that out .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,524
  • Oct 26, 2016 2:32pm Oct 26, 2016 2:32pm
Quoting sisse
EC triggering imminent break down alerts for the first time in over a year. SNB is sitting at 1.04xx unconfirmed but pretty much taken for granted. Below is just air and lots of it till the WTF lows and under.
Glad to see someone talking about this!
It puzzles me how the current CHF situation is not picked on by mainstream financial media.
Reputable prime brokers have been hiking margins on CHF pairs in the last couple of weeks, while the regular known/'famous' retail brokers didn't bother to do anything (yet). So no wonder why the average Joe trader have no clue of what's going on in the background.

Given the relatively extreme sentiment & positioning on EURCHF & GBPCHF, it's just a matter of time before we see a clean sweep in CHF, and I totally agree with Sisse that the move is imminent. Would be real interesting to see how far is the SNB going to let this go, and the extent to which they will intervene.
  • #144,525
  • Oct 26, 2016 2:53pm Oct 26, 2016 2:53pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} That level has been playing as pivot for many many months ...what I meant is that if the swing short mid term momentum lays down 1.12xx in general thus my conviction that it won't visit that handle again at least with no game changer in sight on both sides for EUR/USD til we clear FED/Brexit/DB etc... Rates pricing in didn't hit more than 75% for Dec and I am still expecting a deeper explanation from Sisse on how the pricing in process works in terms of swings .
I'm thinking in order to get there would need to be a no hike November reaction, with possibly continuation via hikes in December. Otherwise no go....but it's on my radar.
  • #144,526
  • Oct 26, 2016 2:53pm Oct 26, 2016 2:53pm
Dollar and EU both looking like roll play. nice call sisse
  • #144,527
  • Edited 4:42pm Oct 26, 2016 4:25pm | Edited 4:42pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Glad to see someone talking about this! It puzzles me how the current CHF situation is not picked on by mainstream financial media. Reputable prime brokers have been hiking margins on CHF pairs in the last couple of weeks, while the regular known/'famous' retail brokers didn't bother to do anything (yet). So no wonder why the average Joe trader have no clue of what's going on in the background. Given the relatively extreme sentiment & positioning on EURCHF & GBPCHF, it's just a matter of time before we see a clean sweep in CHF, and I totally...
Asymmetric information as its call in Economics (for those interested in a quick grasp wiki)....

--> While markets are looking at "A", the average retail trader is looking at "M" while the unaware average Joe in the street is looking at "Z" ...

Every now and then we get some big case...While the biggest hands were betting on the 2008 housing collapse on the background, retail traders were happily eyeballing the moon buying all derivates and what have you while the average Joe was getting the bones in the subrprime .... as alway the latter will pay the bill in case of failure...

Well even now in the UK with Brexit the biggest hands are heading for the exit with contingency plans and covering their ass and traces, the average retail trader is happy riding the fumes in Equities on air and free money while the average Joe in the street is told 'brexit mean brexit' and need to sucked it up in inflation and consume without asking to keep the economy going as 'everything will be fine' next year ...you wonder who is going to pay the price of this next few years? ...

--> In terms of FX trading is the same with the disparities of available information, when big hands are trading already expectations in the next legs in the majors, retail is doing the opposite trying to catch bottom and tops in the majors ...when big hands are positioning in the majors in chop zone, retail is usually lost in translation and start looking at random crosses and exotics to find some juice for the gamble....

To be honest, in the last few months there have been a good number or honest and good traders in this thread realising that information and the time and quality of that information is the key in defining and making money trading expectations.

--> Is not always easy for a small retail trader to filter all the noise and the good info and almost impossible in some cases to get it as fast as those who get it under the table or in the corridors of a lunch in the City or NY but now the major swing's Macro Fundamental information, the major correlations and things like what is happening in CHF are very hard to keep it hidden for long ....

Glad to see another fellow trader in FF also paying attention of what is really happening in the markets, the more the merrier ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,528
  • Oct 26, 2016 7:56pm Oct 26, 2016 7:56pm
I have a question about the SNB, EUR/CHF
Before the SNB removed the peg on the EUR/CHF, it was trading at around 1.20 & after removing the peg, it went down to .85x then quickly bounced back to .98 and ever since has been climbing up.
In February this year EUR/CHF reached a few ticks below 1.12 and the SNB didn't intervene, again in May it reached 1.112x and still no intervention from the SNB and since Feb & May price has gone down, so why didn't the SNB intervene when it was trading at 1.12? why now?


Doesn't every CB want a weaker currency? why would the SNB cause the EUR/CHF to collapse again? making CHF stronger?
  • #144,529
  • Oct 27, 2016 1:47am Oct 27, 2016 1:47am
Quoting Vorex
I have a question about the SNB, EUR/CHF Before the SNB removed the peg on the EUR/CHF, it was trading at around 1.20 & after removing the peg, it went down to .85x then quickly bounced back to .98 and ever since has been climbing up. In February this year EUR/CHF reached a few ticks below 1.12 and the SNB didn't intervene, again in May it reached 1.112x and still no intervention from the SNB and since Feb & May price has gone down, so why didn't the SNB intervene when it was trading at 1.12? why now? Doesn't every CB want a weaker currency? why...
Hi
from my understanding its becouse of the relation E/U to E/CHF and U/CHF at the time of collapse the U/CHF was trading around 1.02 and the E/CHF at 1.20 peg the U/CHF recoverd all of its dicline but the E/CHF never did. at the time of collapse the E/U was at 1.18 so the relation over all has shifted that why now its the 1.04 level
could be wrong but thats my thinking of the situation
regards mayafx
  • #144,530
  • Oct 27, 2016 3:15am Oct 27, 2016 3:15am
All eyes in the UK for the morning.

Slightly better or overshoot is clearing time in Sterling until further notice and given the levels watch-out for sharp shake out of couple of handles. Inline or even worst a undershoot will trigger panic and guarantee BOE Nov fireworks...

Markets expecting inline, slightly better numbers so a flop annihilate early birds ... Again if you don't know exactly what you doing is not the time to learn in GU ....

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,531
  • Oct 27, 2016 3:25am Oct 27, 2016 3:25am
Quoting Vorex
IDoesn't every CB want a weaker currency?
Some quick points:

NO. What make's you say that?

CBs make decisions affecting currencies based on their macroeconomic targets, interest rates and inflation in general. Appreciation or depreciation depends on policy targets and macroeconomic and monetary circumstances in each particular case.

Quote
why would the SNB cause the EUR/CHF to collapse again? making CHF stronger?

The SNB wont make CHF collapse, the market will.

It's exactly the opposite. SNB is desperate fighting CHF strengthening. The have a staggering -0.75%!!! rate and very vocal about reducing even further. They want at all cost avoid money flying (risk!!!) in and firing CHF out of boundaries and distorting their economy and macro targets ....

Quote
... so why didn't the SNB intervene when it was trading at 1.12?

In broad terms there are 3 types of exchange rates systems:

  1. Fixed rates: CB just set a fix exchange rate (e.g 1500 xyz for $1)...classic examples of a fix rate system are the Gold and Silver Standard. Or extreme examples of hard currency pegs with the Euro and with the Dollar (in a few places in Europe, Asia and the Caribbean).
  2. Variable Rates: Which is letting the markets (supply and demand) decide price discovery. This is the reason why we can trade FX otherwise there won't be moves to trade in spot
  3. Bands (Mixed Rates): Basically CB defines a top and bottom band (e.g 1500 top 1400 botton) and price can fluctuate in the market inside. When price approach a band a CB will 'intervene' injecting or taking liquidity to put it back on the range.... The bands are reviewed every now and then to match the current macro targets, etc.

To your questions:

  1. What makes you think the SNB is not in the market stepping in to keep the +/- constant rate?
  2. The problem is now Euro and especially Sterling are heading south via risk so CHF even with stupidity negative rates still is seen as haven at least until the strong part of the storm is clear....
  3. That's exactly why is important to track because is screaming signals of risk on the background
  4. The SNB spend 1/2 GDP pf Africa (just a saying) to keep band low last time ...but at the end markets always win ...
  5. If the forces get stronger, they will throw the kitchen sink again but now we now the limit to the bottom side and that is possible to crack it .,. so..

We'll talk more later... now the news.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,532
  • Oct 27, 2016 3:34am Oct 27, 2016 3:34am
Slightly better as expected....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,533
  • Oct 27, 2016 4:49am Oct 27, 2016 4:49am
Quoting sisse
Slightly better as expected.... sisse
hi Sisse,

i have a lot of things going on right know in my mind like you said expecting inline nos. is it because the exchange rate has dropped and so the nos getting inline or good for a short time or a Q4...

for eu yesterday a roll play triggered in my book might take a little time ... i dont know ...

i can see that a panic attack will be there in fx ... not only in gu but also in all the currencies .... correct me if i am wrong
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,534
  • Oct 27, 2016 5:00am Oct 27, 2016 5:00am
Just a thought! The forecast US data for today and tomorrow is way above the previous one (i.e., Core Durable and Advance GDP). I expect the actual data will be below in order to balance the market, have some "break" and have waves. So, EU might visit 1.097 if not above, but not 1.12.
  • #144,535
  • Oct 27, 2016 5:22am Oct 27, 2016 5:22am
First of all, sisse thank you very much for taking the time to answer my questions.

Quoting sisse
{quote} Some quick points: NO. What make's you say that?

That's what we hear on the news everyday from BOJ to RBA, RNBZ, ECB.
A weaker Pound is bad for England though because they do more imports than exports.

So the SNB is in the same shoe as the BOJ, trying to weaken their currency but the market responds differently and the more they intervene the worst it gets.
  • #144,536
  • Oct 27, 2016 6:13am Oct 27, 2016 6:13am
Any one up for AUD / JPY ?
  • #144,537
  • Oct 27, 2016 6:39am Oct 27, 2016 6:39am
Quoting Vorex
. A weaker Pound is bad for England though because they do more imports than exports. So the SNB is in the same shoe as the BOJ, trying to weaken their currency but the market responds differently and the more they intervene the worst it gets.
->Well first a extreme and fast devaluation or appreciation of a currency is never good for any country.

-> Its already started to rain ad the huge storm cloud is still on top of Europe thanks to Brexit. Banks, large corporations and pretty much anybody with a business and 2 neurons is either walking to the exit door for those depending on the EU market, covering risk, activating contingency plans or at minimum having a stopover till the cloud either clear or explode in a storm..

In this case, CHF becomes THE best and safest bet in Europe to park while the storm pans out. The worst it gets in the UK negotiations front the bigger the stress in CHF will be....

-> Markets have very few alternatives in Europe other than pay for the 'privilege' (negative rates) to park in Switzerland and to lesser extend in the Yen until things are clearer.

As for today (things will change) if Euro survive this one it will become the 2nd  reserve country in the world killing the Pound and London ae the primary market for FX and EU transactions....

Sterling is doom if not already death as global currency for the foreseeable future....we are just witnessing that particular pie disintegrate in from of us and the pieces looking for new owners around Europe and the world..

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,538
  • Oct 27, 2016 7:56am Oct 27, 2016 7:56am
Noticed a rising triangle on AUD for anyone eyeballing the pair

@PTL, closed my shorts
  • #144,539
  • Oct 27, 2016 8:05am Oct 27, 2016 8:05am
Obama leaving office with remarkable strong numbers in the economy in every single macro front. A dramatic shift since he took office in every single employment indicator too official and unofficial. The US is pretty much back to solid 2000 levels ...

The sooner we clear the normalisation path (and European jitters next year gets out of the way) the sharpest and more consistent the next mid and long term leg will be in the US.... but for now first election to clear and hopefully they wont shoot themselves in the foot...

NY to open with solid soft numbers across the world today...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,540
  • Oct 27, 2016 8:05am Oct 27, 2016 8:05am
Lol @ CHF being the "safe haven". Good lord how things change in a year huh? Irony...

Trading the banded rates sounds like a dream come true...until the bottom falls out 2,000 pips. I'd imagine it'd be worth a lot of money to know where those pegs sit across various currencies.
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