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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #21,161
  • Oct 17, 2016 5:13pm Oct 17, 2016 5:13pm
AUDNZD

Quoting ayour2a
{quote} You won this battle.
Had to suffer draw down for a while but paid off in the end.

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #21,162
  • Oct 21, 2016 2:11pm Oct 21, 2016 2:11pm
Quoting strat
AUDNZD {quote} Had to suffer draw down for a while but paid off in the end. {image}

What!

All that STRESS for a miserable 50 pips?
  • #21,163
  • Oct 21, 2016 2:16pm Oct 21, 2016 2:16pm
Well now, lookey here!

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What will the next three weeks bring us?.. Donald?.. Hillary?
  • #21,164
  • Oct 21, 2016 4:47pm Oct 21, 2016 4:47pm
AUDNZD

Quoting trogger
{quote} What! All that STRESS for a miserable 50 pips?
162 pips over 6 positions but pips are meaningless, it is the %ROI which counts and that was well worth the stress (just)!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #21,165
  • Edited Oct 26, 2016 3:14am Oct 25, 2016 9:41pm | Edited Oct 26, 2016 3:14am
Quoting strat
AUDNZD {quote} 162 pips over 6 positions but pips are meaningless, it is the %ROI which counts and that was well worth the stress (just)!
Hmmm....

When I trade this pair, I'm usually looking for a fair bit more.

Here is what is left of my trade:

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Been a fair few tests of 1.075, so could go this time.

I would prefer to see another retrace first, so I can "reload" but, either way, its been highly profitable for me.

Whenever I enter a trade, I'm aiming to win the war, not the first ground skirmish.
  • #21,166
  • Oct 26, 2016 10:56am Oct 26, 2016 10:56am
Quoting trogger
{quote}Whenever I enter a trade, I'm aiming to win the war, not the first ground skirmish.
I agree but I have been trading shorter time frames which give shorter "wars".
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #21,167
  • Oct 26, 2016 3:17pm Oct 26, 2016 3:17pm
Quoting strat
{quote} CI agree but I have been trading shorter time frames which give shorter "wars".

Yes! Exactly!

I still delude myself that trolls and newcomers might actually want to : READ and UNDERSTAND your thread.

Sadly, that does not seems to be the case.

Quite some time ago I very nearly posted to point out that, while you were short and I was long, it was highly likely (not certain, but highly likely) that WE would both come out in profit.

In order for this to occur, newcomers need to"Read and UNDERSTAND" a number of important lessons:

1. The "power of higher time frames" (higher than the time frame you enter on)
2. Position sizing (how not to blow your account)
3. Trade the plan (control the little people)
4. PATIENCE
5. .........???


All covered in this excellent thread.

And all free and freely available [Thanks You Strat ] - for anyone willing to start on Page 1.
  • #21,168
  • Oct 26, 2016 4:35pm Oct 26, 2016 4:35pm
Quoting trogger
{quote} Yes! Exactly! I still delude myself that trolls and newcomers might actually want to : READ and UNDERSTAND your thread. Sadly, that does not seems to be the case. Quite some time ago I very nearly posted to point out that, while you were short and I was long, it was highly likely (not certain, but highly likely) that WE would both come out in profit. In order for this to occur, newcomers need to"Read and UNDERSTAND" a number of important lessons: 1. The "power of higher time frames" (higher than the time frame you enter on) 2. Position sizing...
Yeah Man ,....place to be & free to those who have the grit n gumption to get on with it ,
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...
  • #21,169
  • Edited Oct 27, 2016 10:10am Oct 26, 2016 10:05pm | Edited Oct 27, 2016 10:10am
Quoting glyder
{quote} Yeah Man ,....place to be & free to those who have the grit n gumption to get on with it ,
Sadly though, looking at the latest and greatest high view threads, they are all the new generation of wanna be/get rich quick people, most of whom don't have a clue what a "pip" is and, looking at their profiles, the greatest influx seems to be from Asia.

"Read and Understand?" - why should I do that when one thread tells me to blindly trade on a cross of a moving average and I will be profitable each month! Another tells me to blindly trade when a Stochastic goes above/below 80/20 to be profitable each month!

I can't wait for these idiots to progress from demo and then fund real, live accounts.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #21,170
  • Oct 28, 2016 9:52pm Oct 28, 2016 9:52pm
Quoting trogger
{quote} Yes! Exactly! I still delude myself that trolls and newcomers might actually want to : READ and UNDERSTAND your thread. Sadly, that does not seems to be the case. Quite some time ago I very nearly posted to point out that, while you were short and I was long, it was highly likely (not certain, but highly likely) that WE would both come out in profit. In order for this to occur, newcomers need to"Read and UNDERSTAND" a number of important lessons: 1. The "power of higher time frames" (higher than the time frame you enter on) 2. Position sizing...
Wild Thing, you make my heart sing!

Sadly though, looking at the latest and greatest high view threads, they are all the new generation of wanna be/get rich quick people, most of whom don't have a clue what a "pip" is and, looking at their profiles, the greatest influx seems to be from Asia.
"Read and Understand?" - why should I do that when one thread tells me to blindly trade on a cross of a moving average and I will be profitable each month! Another tells me to blindly trade when a Stochastic goes above/below 80/20 to be profitable each month!
I can't wait for these idiots to progress from demo and then fund real, live accounts.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #21,171
  • Nov 1, 2016 2:30am Nov 1, 2016 2:30am
Quoting strat
{quote} Wild Thing, you make my heart sing! Sadly though, looking at the latest and greatest high view threads, they are all the new generation of wanna be/get rich quick people, most of whom don't have a clue what a "pip" is and, looking at their profiles, the greatest influx seems to be from Asia. "Read and Understand?" - why should I do that when one thread tells me to blindly trade on a cross of a moving average and I will be profitable each month! Another...

Not sure about those "Stoicraptics" (hic, not sic!) but I sure am into trading blindly:

4hr chart AUD/NZ

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(Just as long as I'm confident about my higher time frame analysis.)

Now, more important things: where's my whiskey? .... hic!
  • #21,172
  • Edited Nov 4, 2016 4:25pm Nov 3, 2016 10:23pm | Edited Nov 4, 2016 4:25pm
Quoting trogger
Well now, lookey here! {image} What will the next three weeks bring us?.. Donald?.. Hillary?

So? Who took it?

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Say... Does that look like a Mantis?

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But who's the prey?
Donald or Hilary?
  • #21,173
  • Nov 7, 2016 9:18am Nov 7, 2016 9:18am
Since the financial markets will be as crazy as the two Presidential hopefuls this week, I am just using this week to WATCH and WAIT and follow my #1 Rule - CAPITAL PRESERVATION
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #21,174
  • Nov 8, 2016 8:31pm Nov 8, 2016 8:31pm
Quoting strat
Since the financial markets will be as crazy as the two Presidential hopefuls this week, I am just using this week to WATCH and WAIT and follow my #1 Rule - CAPITAL PRESERVATION

What?

And miss all the fun!

Trump leading 137 to 104 as I type:

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  • #21,175
  • Edited 4:34am Nov 9, 2016 1:55am | Edited 4:34am
Quoting trogger
{quote} What? And miss all the fun! Trump leading 137 to 104 as I type: {image}

Well, I've had a fun day - Doing the hokey tokey and shaking it all about!

Now pretty much fully long this pair again.
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I'm guessing there will be a fair bit of "shaking it all about" going on in the markets in days/weeks to come.
  • #21,176
  • Nov 9, 2016 9:40am Nov 9, 2016 9:40am
Wild Thing, that is AUDNZD chart right?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #21,177
  • Nov 9, 2016 3:51pm Nov 9, 2016 3:51pm
Quoting strat
Wild Thing, that is AUDNZD chart right?


Yes, 15 min chart. I think it should look a little different - that is why I keep buying these levels!

Of course, the market may not agree with me!

Anyway, I bought more on the retrace this morning (NZ time) and continue to pursue my "Hokey Tokey" approach to this pair: "In, Out. Shake it all about":

15min chart snapped just 5 to 10 minutes ago is below:

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I retain a long-term core position, but am more than happy to day trade the shorter time frames if the market presents the opportunity to do so.
  • #21,178
  • Nov 9, 2016 8:40pm Nov 9, 2016 8:40pm
AUDNZD

Quoting trogger
{quote} Yes, 15 min chart. I think it should look a little different - that is why I keep buying these levels! Of course, the market may not agree with me! Anyway, I bought more on the retrace this morning (NZ time) and continue to pursue my "Hokey Tokey" approach to this pair: "In, Out. Shake it all about": 15min chart snapped just 5 to 10 minutes ago is below: {image} I retain a long-term core position, but am more than happy to day trade the shorter time frames if the market presents the opportunity to do so.
Wild Thing you said you were ""Now pretty much fully long this pair again."" This means you are expecting AUDNZD to go up in the long term. How can this be when Oz's interest rate is 1.5% and Kiwi's interest rate is 2%? Investors will put their money in the currency with the highest interest rate (NZD) which would cause AUDNZD to go down. This is why funnymentals confuse me.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #21,179
  • Nov 9, 2016 8:55pm Nov 9, 2016 8:55pm
Quoting strat
AUDNZD {quote} Wild Thing you said you were ""Now pretty much fully long this pair again."" This means you are expecting AUDNZD to go up in the long term. How can this be when Oz's interest rate is 1.5% and Kiwi's interest rate is 2%? Investors will put their money in the currency with the highest interest rate (NZD) which would cause AUDNZD to go down. This is why funnymentals confuse me.
Well that would mean the GBPUSD and EURUSD should be much higher as well, no?
  • #21,180
  • Edited 9:01pm Nov 10, 2016 8:22pm | Edited 9:01pm
Quoting strat
AUDNZD {quote} Wild Thing you said you were ""Now pretty much fully long this pair again."" This means you are expecting AUDNZD to go up in the long term. How can this be when Oz's interest rate is 1.5% and Kiwi's interest rate is 2%? Investors will put their money in the currency with the highest interest rate (NZD) which would cause AUDNZD to go down. This is why funnymentals confuse me.
Hi Strat

This is an off the cuff response to your serious thinking and comments. With time, I am sure I could construct a better explanation of my thinking, but for now this is the best I can offer:

1. long term: Yes, I do expect it to go up long term. But long term for me means looking at the full period for which Kiwi has floated - approx 32 years. During that time we have only ever seen this pair below roughly where it is now for perhaps 3 months in total. That was approx 18 months ago. Not so long in the grand scheme and certainly possible that we may head back towards parity, or even possibly below. But something that is "possible" isn't necessarily "probable".

The BIG Boss chart shows all time highs around 135-138 (Sept 2000 and March 2011) 10-11 years apart. The bottom for this period at 1.0432 is pretty much exactly midway between these two peaks. Since the 2011 peak, we have seen a "flirt" with parity in April 2015 and, unless this is broken, I see no reason to look for anything other than longs from present levels.

2. Kiwi's interest rate is 2%?

You may have missed the reserve wankers announcement yesterday?

9:00amNZD
Official Cash Rate
1.75%1.75%2.00%

3. will put

I think it more likely that Investors (? speculators?) HAVE (already) PUT their money into selling this pair. Banking on the "greater fool than thou" theory of trading and joining the herd now does not seem prudent to me, given the history of this pair.


Like you, I don't make "trade calls" for others. I simply trade what I see and I post what I trade.

I am well aware that I may be wrong - I MANAGE my accounts accordingly (Thanks, mainly, to having spent a huge amount of time READING and (I hope) UNDERSTANDING your thread. Thank you.)
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