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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,321
  • Oct 26, 2016 7:51am Oct 26, 2016 7:51am
14:51+1GMT
preUS opened inside yesterday preUS range but above yesterday pit session high 22056. It tested twice the yesterday pit upper distribution high, finding no acceptation inside it and leaving behind a new poor high at 22193, just 1 single pip below the previous spike base from GB 10.20.

It is now also balancing up and down the 22067 that is the half back of the move downside from 10.19 as written many times.

It has also already removed the cluster left by GB at 2200 round number.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,322
  • Oct 26, 2016 7:58am Oct 26, 2016 7:58am
14:58 +1GMT
Note that B, C and GB period weak lows are still in place:a pit gap upside could skip them for some time. If no gap... I really don't know.
Overall the situation is exceptionally weak. With low volumes too.
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  • #1,323
  • Oct 26, 2016 8:10am Oct 26, 2016 8:10am
15:09+1GMT Let me say that the sequence of weaknesses left upside is currently almost incredible.

15:18+1GMT

A complete list of the current weaknesses above:

  1. Today preUS poor high at 2219
  2. Today GB high tagging yesterday preUS high at 22254
  3. 10.24 preUS poor high at 22416 only tagged by 10.24 pit session high, also tagged by yesterday GB high (1 single pip above it),
  4. GB 10.21 poor high at 2248 Tagged by 10.24 GB session poor high at 22487,
  5. Sydney 10.20 poor high at 22597,
  6. Pit 10.20 poor high at 2274,
  7. GB 10.20 poor high at 2285,
  8. Tokyo 10.20 poor high at 2298 and finally
  9. Pit 10.19 poor high at 2322

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  • #1,324
  • Oct 26, 2016 8:27am Oct 26, 2016 8:27am
15:27+1GMT
Pit US could open with a gap upside: if the gap is preserved we could imagine a correction at least partial of the weaknesses above. If no gap or if the gap will be retraced I don't know. Maybe we could assist to a new correction downside leaving behind all this mess. But in any case carry forward the infomation that market is providing you. What ever the result the upper situation is totally and extraordinary weak.
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  • #1,325
  • Oct 26, 2016 8:35am Oct 26, 2016 8:35am
Quoting Lock
15:09+1GMT Let me say that the sequence of weaknesses left upside is currently almost incredible. 15:18+1GMT A complete list of the current weaknesses above: Today preUS poor high at 2219 Today GB high tagging yesterday preUS high at 22254 10.24 preUS poor high at 22416 only tagged by 10.24 pit session high, also tagged by yesterday GB high (1 single pip above it), GB 10.21 poor high at 2248 Tagged by 10.24 GB session poor high at 22487, Sydney 10.20 poor high at 22597, Pit 10.20 poor high at 2274, GB...
15:35+1GMT
Pit opened with a gap higher and the first weaknesses have been removed.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,326
  • Oct 26, 2016 8:49am Oct 26, 2016 8:49am
15:48+1GMT
Increasing volatility and volume: watch out because this market is totally weak and an exogenous event or some stronger partecipants stepping in could dramatically change any price orientation in a metter of milliseconds. For now the gap upside is still in place.

16:01+1GMT Up and down yesterday high. B low at half back corrected immediately. It is doing whatever to remove weak hands below.

16:04 +1GMT
B low at open price: huge lack of conviction. Gap still in place. Very very tricky market.

16:08+1GMT A B periods poor low. It looks like it want to remove weak hands below before go higher. But it is only a personal impression.

16:23+GMT Price up and down open more than 60 times for now. Huge indecision.

16:26+1GMT price still glued to open. Gap upside (very little) still in place.
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  • #1,327
  • Oct 26, 2016 9:33am Oct 26, 2016 9:33am
16:33+1GMT C low at open again. B low at preUS half back. C preUS period at mid term bracket half back. The only ruling reason to skip this mess is the current little gap higher. If it will resist it will open the doors upside.
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  • #1,328
  • Oct 26, 2016 9:50am Oct 26, 2016 9:50am
16.50+1GMT Gap upside still in place. Current C priod now tagging yesterday GB high. It is weak.
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  • #1,329
  • Oct 26, 2016 9:56am Oct 26, 2016 9:56am
16:56+1GMT Note that price is attempting against a very strong resistance. Have a look to the H4 chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 38 KB
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  • #1,330
  • Oct 26, 2016 10:06am Oct 26, 2016 10:06am
17:06+1GMT D low at half back 2227. We are still in short covering. Carry all these information forward.
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  • #1,331
  • Oct 26, 2016 10:12am Oct 26, 2016 10:12am
17:12+1GMT
A fast recap

 

  1. Price is grinding upwards against a strong resistance.
  2. D low at current half back
  3. C low at open
  4. B low at preUS half back.
  5. preUS C low at mid term bracket half back
  6. little gap upside still in place. (only current reason for buyers if added to the weaknesses left above by previous days)

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  • #1,332
  • Oct 26, 2016 10:25am Oct 26, 2016 10:25am
17:25+1GMT For those who are buying (like me) the only structural place to put a stop is below current gap upside. I'm not telling anyone to do what I'm doing: maybe I'm wrong about the buy and about the stops. I'm only saying that this zone looks to me a reasonable place to have a stop.

A suggestion: in any case do not let the market take you out. A professional trader should use the stops only as a security measure. You have to decide if the position is going fine or not and consequently if a close is needed or not. Remember that if the % of stops triggered is more than 5% you are not using the stops in a proper way. (JD taught us this attitude to be a decision maker and not a passive observer)
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  • #1,333
  • Oct 26, 2016 10:32am Oct 26, 2016 10:32am
17:31 +1GMT D inside period of C. Possible break from here, above or below. E period is the last one for London. Yesterday London close is at 21598. Current high is still weak.

17:43 +1GMT E low at half back again. I'm off my longs. Let's see the possible break from D: above or below.

18:00+1GMT E inside D inside C...

18:26+1GMT F inside E inside D inside C...
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  • #1,334
  • Oct 26, 2016 11:43am Oct 26, 2016 11:43am
18:43 +1GMT Please note that after the C period of GB session we moved higher only for 18.5 pips. Substantially the entire day has been made in the first hour and a half of the GB session. Not an easy market to trade at all. Total lack of involvement of bigger timeframes.
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  • #1,335
  • Oct 26, 2016 11:51am Oct 26, 2016 11:51am
18:51+1GMT
Note that G attempted below F and doing so it removed the weak low of E period at half back. I'm long again. For the last time. If it will fail above or if it will come back downside I'll be off for today.
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  • #1,336
  • Oct 26, 2016 11:56am Oct 26, 2016 11:56am
18:56+1GMT I'm off as promised. Have a nice continuation. It could also liquidate from here but I'm too tired to follow a possible liquidation downside.
Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,337
  • Oct 27, 2016 12:30am Oct 27, 2016 12:30am
Quoting Lock
18:56+1GMT I'm off as promised. Have a nice continuation. It could also liquidate from here but I'm too tired to follow a possible liquidation downside. Best L.
07:30+1GMT
So, Tokyo spent the overnight activity to liquidate completely the yesterday pit session. Obviously as a day trader I was not in this liquidation. Note that Sydney high tagged exactly the yesterday pit session high at 22485. This means that this top is weaker than before. In fact yesterday pit session only tagged the 10.24 GB poor high: so it was already very weak.
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  • #1,338
  • Oct 27, 2016 12:59am Oct 27, 2016 12:59am
16/10/27 Thursday 07:59 +1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Yesterday activity was aimed to correct some of the weaknesses left above from previous days. But the USDX position, clearly in a trend upside didn't allow cable to do its job in an easy faster way. Also the current composite poc at 2221 is now prevaling over the other near comp. pocs and it is now very difficult to evade its pole of attraction without volume.
The sequence of weaknesses above is substantially intact: yesterday pit removed some of them but it only managed to tag the huge cluster at 2248 that is now extraordinary weak. Most of the weak refs left below by yesterday pit session have been recovered by tonight Tokyo activity as written in the previous post but the weak C 21828 and D 2195 period lows from yesterday GB are still there.
I continue to say that the weaknesses above* are too many and to weak to be left without correction. At the same time I consider this market exceptionally weak and consequently capable of doing anything at any moment in time.

A personal note for yesterday: I made a substantial mistake when I insisted to buy even if the market generated information were telling me that the underlying weakness going higher was too much to allow a substantial correction of the weaknesses above.(have a look to this post.)
This is a typical error that happens when a trader wants something that the market is not ready to give him and the trader does not want to accept that sentence. I've been punished for this error and I hope that other traders here will take this mistake as a good lesson for their future behaviour.

*Here's a list of those weaknesses above:

 

  1. GB 10.21 poor high at 2248 Tagged by 10.24 GB session poor high at 22487, tagged by yesterday pit session, tagged by today Sydney high!!
  2. Sydney 10.20 poor high at 22597,
  3. Pit 10.20 poor high at 2274,
  4. GB 10.20 poor high at 2285,
  5. Tokyo 10.20 poor high at 2298 and finally
  6. Pit 10.19 poor high at 2322

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,339
  • Oct 27, 2016 1:55am Oct 27, 2016 1:55am
08:55 +1GMT
Less than 5 minutes to go and price is currently inside yesterday GB session range (2165-22253) and it is also very close to the main composite poc at 2221. For these reasons, if it will remain like this untill GB open, without making any gap upside or downside) we could expect initial acceptation of yesterday range and eventually tests below or/and above it. As written we left downside the weak C 21828 and D 2195 period lows from yesterday GB and we have an imbarassing situation with the huge cluster at 2248 level. Also note that we still have an incredible 2 pips gap downside (from 10.20 GB session low at 22506) left just above that level.

22143 is yesterday GB unchanged
22324 is yesterday GB close
22066 is the half back of the entire move downside from 10.19 GB session (high at 22317, low at 20816)
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,340
  • Edited 2:34am Oct 27, 2016 2:24am | Edited 2:34am
09:24+1GMT A period tested below Tokyo low 22045 (overnight low) and went back to open. It is a licit short term trade below Tokyo. But A low is at round 2200 so carry this information forward because it is a weak level.

9:31 A high at yesterday GB unchanged 22143, B high at today open 2211: weak environment for now.

9:34 Note price action up and down the important level given by 22066 that is the half back of the entire move downside from 10.19 GB session (high at 22317, low at 20816)
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