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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,481
  • Oct 25, 2016 4:35pm Oct 25, 2016 4:35pm
Quoting chester123
I think it would be good to open some discussion about the "roll play" in general. After following sisse for something like 2 years thats one of the concepts I still do not really understand. Maybe it has been explained at some point and I missed it. Also seems that most of us here are not sure about the concept. But if we start from the most general: In my view - roll play: is a sub-short term-swing play that allows you to play the flows inside a short term leg - for shorter time than a short term swing! Can we agree on this? and weekly/monthly...
From my understanding it is the low / high of monthly candles that turn to S/R level. When price come back on retracement the roll is in play . So then it is break or shake. It does not need to be the last month candle ( Like for this roll play I understand it is the June candle that is in play )
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,482
  • Oct 25, 2016 4:47pm Oct 25, 2016 4:47pm
buy the dip on the AAPL miss? I will prolly look to do that towards the end of the week. We'll see if a little apple bruising will swing the S&P down now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,483
  • Oct 25, 2016 4:47pm Oct 25, 2016 4:47pm
link was posted by Pharm0r as Sisse explained this concept in the past , here what he wrote about it :


"Roll in play" it just my own coined term to highlight there is a Trade opp on the close (D.W/M/Q).

--> In practical terms a 'roll' play usually shows up at the end of pullbacks/begging of continuation moves and is made in the very calm waters (the opposite of a news trade) where most of unaware traders can't even smell it.

--> It doesn't necessarily mean that action is taking place at the exact closing range but rather the opposite: That in the next few sessions whatever was happening until then wont be happening in the same way. A simple [this is random and just for the sake of the concept] example to make it understandable will be, if Europe was buying the dips but NY was capping the rallies after extending the highs (a textbook of a basic natural ebb and flow), a roll play would mean that if the roll play end up been valid, the next few session Europe wont be buying anymore the dip and therefore the ebb and flow will change ...etc etc

--> Its by definition the cleaner entry you may get if you get it right because you are positioning in very clam waters and without anybody including softer retail on it. A good roll play will usually have very little (if any in relative terms) drawdown but it wont ever by itself make a major game changer in direction. Thats why it appears and is most useful in end of pullbacks/retraces or the beginning of new or fresh break out continuation legs with the trend and seldom and almost never in major trend change tops and bottoms... Sisse copyright
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,484
  • Oct 25, 2016 4:49pm Oct 25, 2016 4:49pm
still keep shorting. gotta load again=)
  • #144,485
  • Oct 25, 2016 4:54pm Oct 25, 2016 4:54pm
Staying short Thanks
  • #144,486
  • Oct 25, 2016 5:00pm Oct 25, 2016 5:00pm
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} To be frank, I knew about 'roll play' through your conversation with Sisse. This said, I think in addition to be opposite two candles, it is also opposite to the direction. In your case it was up against sell outlook. Here, yesterday the candle was green (up); so even if today is red (down), it's not opposite to the direction. Unless Sisse changes the outlook to neutral.
I see what you mean- I do agree with you

I want to see a failed roll play for comparisons sake
  • #144,487
  • Oct 25, 2016 6:35pm Oct 25, 2016 6:35pm
sell please
  • #144,488
  • Oct 25, 2016 6:58pm Oct 25, 2016 6:58pm
If this rookie is allowed to join , Sell Please. let the learning start!!!
  • #144,489
  • Edited 11:52pm Oct 25, 2016 11:34pm | Edited 11:52pm
this years low thus far has been 1.0710ish, and we are looking at the most bearish monthly bar on the board this year, we do have a few days left sure, but this month has next to no hat...I'm bearish...and I'd look for shorts on a rally somewhere...
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #144,490
  • Oct 25, 2016 11:38pm Oct 25, 2016 11:38pm
sisse & I have had this battle before....that dip in TLT at the end of 2013 coincided with the 30yr treasury yield going to 4%, which he said would never happen, but it did. Briefly. Betting on a bond market collapse has been a multi-generational project. Anyway, it looks like finally bond bears could be getting some courage. This will depend on the Yellen Fed following through on years of threats to normalize and also a variety of big scary macro issues more or less fading away (you know - Eurozone dissolution, Superpower world war III, civil war in the USA, asteroid collisions with Earth, etc)....anyway, if there be just a controlled off-gassing & not a liquidity crisis, the bond market could slide down while the equity markets pick up the slack and trend up to new skybox territory - you know, just like the good old days. Something tells me it just can't be that easy, though, so I'm not betting the farm short bonds.....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,491
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:00am Oct 26, 2016 12:00am
junk & high yield would lead the way, HYG a great canary in the coal mine, nothing yet.....the iv's so low in HYG you can set up cheap put hedges pretty much like long volatility
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,492
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:06am Oct 26, 2016 12:06am
Hell, I remember when I first got into this business, bonds where the first quote on every ones screen. The first quote you got when you went into the office was where the night bonds closed. Now I couldn't even tell ya within 10 handles where they trade.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #144,493
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:11am Oct 26, 2016 12:11am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Hell, I remember when I first got into this business, bonds where the first quote on every ones screen. The first quote you got when you went into the office was where the night bonds closed. Now I couldn't even tell ya within 10 handles where they trade.
well, short the US long bond could be one of the easiest trades on the horizon - IF the other macro influences stay m/l subdued....as I said, not bettin the farm....

I know tho right, the old saw "credit anticipates, equity confirms" - that just meant the bonds would point the way for equities.....but things are a lot more chaotic now
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,494
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:24am Oct 26, 2016 12:24am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}well, short the US long bond could be one of the easiest trades on the horizon - IF the other macro influences stay m/l subdued....as I said, not bettin the farm.... I know tho right, the old saw "credit anticipates, equity confirms" - that just meant the bonds would point the way for equities.....but things are a lot more chaotic now
Indeed, the old timers where always saying, watch the bond market, so I did for a few years. Mostly hated bonds tho.

Anyway, I don't even know what marco influences are anymore, I put all that stuff behind me, gave me nothing but trouble over the years. Guess I wasn't as smart as I thought. Just give me the high/low/close, and I'll be on my way.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #144,495
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:28am Oct 26, 2016 12:28am
http://www.seeitmarket.com/what-hist...tocks-15005/2/

Often, Fed rate normalization cycles have led to uptrending equities. There are all kinds of wild cards now and what is going on in the Old World is especially worrisome, but in and of itself, a few rate hikes in 2017 should not be enough to crash the markets. I'm bullish stocks for 2017 but I am not forgetting the hedges...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,496
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:30am Oct 26, 2016 12:30am
Well, E/U does look awfully bearish. And every man and his dog wants to go short again. But I'm itching for a reason to go long based on the perceived lack of selling strength in this leg down, and I think I've just found one. So, in live, gonna enter a small long at 1.0865 (if it gets there) and risk 25 pips. I'll use Sisse's 1.097 for the initial TP. Don't follow me!
You reap what you sow.
  • #144,497
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:30am Oct 26, 2016 12:30am
Quoting PayTheLimit
Just give me the high/low/close, and I'll be on my way.
Bliss. Hope you're making bank somewhere. Just has been tough to trade well last couple of years, it seems. I am quite sure more interesting times lie ahead, though...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,498
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:33am Oct 26, 2016 12:33am
Quoting NorthTrader
Well, E/U does look awfully bearish. And every man and his dog wants to go short again. But I'm itching for a reason to go long based on the perceived lack of selling strength in this leg down, and I think I've just found one. So, in live, gonna enter a small long at 1.0865 (if it gets there) and risk 25 pips. I'll use Sisse's 1.097 for the initial TP. Don't follow me!

outside day spinner yesterday, on top of the inside doji the day before, is that the lack of selling strength you speak of ?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #144,499
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:35am Oct 26, 2016 12:35am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Bliss. Hope you're making bank somewhere. Just has been tough to trade well last couple of years, it seems. I am quite sure more interesting times lie ahead, though...
its been tough all over bro, don't let anyone tell you otherwise...but it goes on stretches, well have another good run sometime me thinks...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #144,500
  • Oct 26, 2016 12:36am Oct 26, 2016 12:36am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} outside day spinner yesterday, on top of the inside doji the day before, is that the lack of selling strength you speak of ?
Nah, it's more to do with volume vs spread on lower TFs. Gotta work now so can't explain further sorry. GL
You reap what you sow.
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