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A Little Breakout Here and There

  • #161
  • Oct 24, 2016 10:13am Oct 24, 2016 10:13am
I thought I'd throw in a 200SMA filter, only taking longs above and shorts below, aiming for 10 pips profit.

GU 4hr, Method 3, from now to Jan 1st 2016: 26 wins, 6 losses

GJ: 28 wins, 4 losses
  • #162
  • Oct 24, 2016 10:48am Oct 24, 2016 10:48am
Quoting HarryPlopper
I thought I'd throw in a 200SMA filter, only taking longs above and shorts below, aiming for 10 pips profit. GU 4hr, Method 3, from now to Jan 1st 2016: 26 wins, 6 losses GJ: 28 wins, 4 losses
Yeah, I'm pretty sure the simple sma filter is as complex as you'd need. Great results.
  • #163
  • Oct 24, 2016 10:59am Oct 24, 2016 10:59am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Yeah, I'm pretty sure the simple sma filter is as complex as you'd need. Great results.

thanks!


I'm not sure if I have something here or not. I'm not really experienced in automated trading/optimization. I welcome any input that could help put something together based with what I've shown. I'm also swamped with my day job now so have very limited time
  • #164
  • Oct 24, 2016 2:08pm Oct 24, 2016 2:08pm
Quoting HarryPlopper
I thought I'd throw in a 200SMA filter, only taking longs above and shorts below, aiming for 10 pips profit. GU 4hr, Method 3, from now to Jan 1st 2016: 26 wins, 6 losses GJ: 28 wins, 4 losses
May I suggest you use a 240 sma OPEN instead.

This is equivalent to a 2 sma OPEN on the Monthly. This monthly direction only changes a couple of times a year! Please try it on a monthly chart.

This is used successfully in another forum.
  • #165
  • Oct 24, 2016 5:08pm Oct 24, 2016 5:08pm
Quoting HarryPlopper
I thought I'd throw in a 200SMA filter, only taking longs above and shorts below, aiming for 10 pips profit. GU 4hr, Method 3, from now to Jan 1st 2016: 26 wins, 6 losses GJ: 28 wins, 4 losses
great but where do you place your SL?
  • #166
  • Oct 24, 2016 6:51pm Oct 24, 2016 6:51pm
Quoting Spu
HarryPlopper, Here is the indicator kindly provided by TooSlow in post #79. I removed the following code to allow the indicator to show all setups of your method 3. Bear/Bull/Bull for longs, Bull/Bear/Bear for shorts. (as outlined in your post #45/#76). And enter on bar open. && Close<Low[i+1] / && Close>High[i+1] I also added the following code so that for short setups candle 1 and 3 both have lower highs than candle 2 and vice versa for longs. (Previously candle 3 could have had a higher high than candle 2 for short setups, and vice versa...
This is one reason for posting .mq4 files.
Others can advance the code.
No one can hold the others hostage.
That is what happens when only .ex4 files are posted.
You must bow down and beg the coder who thinks they're a guru.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #167
  • Oct 24, 2016 7:03pm Oct 24, 2016 7:03pm
Quoting Karemi-Trade
{quote} great but where do you place your SL?
SL is placed a couple of pips above/below the extreme of Bar #2 (thought there was some talk of using atr in some way).
  • #168
  • Oct 24, 2016 7:06pm Oct 24, 2016 7:06pm
Quoting Karemi-Trade
{quote} great but where do you place your SL?

mentioned a few times in the thread. placed at the high of the 2nd bar if going short or the low of the second bar if going long. another option I'd like to experiment with is using an ATR(50) of the 3rd bar
  • #169
  • Oct 25, 2016 7:28am Oct 25, 2016 7:28am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} SL is placed a couple of pips above/below the extreme of Bar #2 (thought there was some talk of using atr in some way).
so if your SL is let's say 100 pips away, your TP will still be 10 pips?
  • #170
  • Oct 25, 2016 7:39am Oct 25, 2016 7:39am
Quoting Karemi-Trade
{quote} so if your SL is let's say 100 pips away, your TP will still be 10 pips?
Not the way I would do it or even will end up being HP's way but pretty sure that was the original rule. We're still working on formalising the pattern etc to a certain extent and fine tuning exits etc will come later. My own personal way of doing it would probably involve using some kind of counter trade if it turned but I also prefer the Daily tf and not the H4, so subtle differences come into play. HP is doing a power of work on this with limited time - be patient
  • #171
  • Oct 25, 2016 7:43am Oct 25, 2016 7:43am
For those who were up-and-about, there was a nailed-on buy on AUDUSD this morning. Used the Bear, Bear, Bull pattern and traded away from the sma 240...H4 Long. Sweet.
  • #172
  • Oct 25, 2016 10:18am Oct 25, 2016 10:18am
Like this simple strategy. Will work on it and let you know my experience.
  • #173
  • Oct 25, 2016 10:30am Oct 25, 2016 10:30am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} HP is doing a power of work on this with limited time - be patient
thanks! yes, probably spending far too much time than I should be doing my head in at the moment!
  • #174
  • Oct 25, 2016 10:35am Oct 25, 2016 10:35am
Quoting Karemi-Trade
{quote} so if your SL is let's say 100 pips away, your TP will still be 10 pips?

hi Karemi-Trade, no most likley I won't be using a 100 stop for 10 profit in this thread I've been largely throwing out a bunch of trading ideas which some people have adapted to their own style and seem to be working ok for them. I've suggested various stop and profit possibilities but I have no real knowledge or experience with proper, in-depth system testing, let alone using Strategy Tester, if an EA were to be created. I'm welcoming all suggestions on how to optimis any or all of the ideas put forward so far in order to create a winning system.
  • #175
  • Oct 25, 2016 11:08am Oct 25, 2016 11:08am
Today I opened a bunch of charts to see how method 3 stacks up on the daily timeframe. Upon first glance, it seems like half the time the signals work great with the entry bar closing closing profitably. However, it also seems that a lot of bars move favourably at first then close in the opposite direction. So this got me thinking quite a lot and trying to see if patterns are occurring in the seamingless random nature of things. And I broke Method 3 down into its various constants needed for a valid signal. In other words, these constants must form 100% of the time otherwise the signal isn't valid. So I wondered if there was a way to 'jump the gun'' and enter at the start of bar 3. This would require a different approach altogether, which deviates from the initial concept of this thread (being the 2 bar close idea). Upon further examination, I realised that if we have a bullish bar (bar 1) and then a bearish bar (bar 2) with it's high higher than bar 1's, then quite possibly we could enter at the open of the 3rd bar and exit at it's close. I would also guess that in at least half of these setups, bar 2 would be an outside bar, the very basic of price action trading..... Perhaps this is another method for someone to explore.....
  • #176
  • Edited 11:49am Oct 25, 2016 11:37am | Edited 11:49am
I then remembered a kind person developed for me some years ago a reversal indicator that showed me when a bearish swing high had formed for x number of bars back and oppositely for a bullish swing low. And for fun I placed it on the daily chart, looking back 5 bars (and no, doing this is not the same as a fractal but smells similar), and have come up with a potential swing trading system which I'm also inclined to test out as upon first glance appears to give great RR. I don't imagine it's anything particularly new, probably been done a million times before. I've attached the indicator that was developed. Screenshot what I'm talking about next
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 !! PivotHighLow.mq4   3 KB | 385 downloads
  • #177
  • Oct 25, 2016 11:39am Oct 25, 2016 11:39am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bullish reversal example.JPG Size: 28 KB
  • #178
  • Oct 25, 2016 11:58am Oct 25, 2016 11:58am
the indicator needs to be modified to show only bullish reversals with lowest lows and bearish reversals with highest highs

entry on immediate bar following the reversal, stop placed just below the reversal bar, take profit set at 2,3,4 x the stop OR til you get a reversal in opposite direction.

cherry-picked chart to clearly show example of riding out the swings. could add on to positions using the 2 bar close method mentioned at the beginning of this thread...

(haven't abandoned/given up previous methods, just doing some exploration from one thing leading to another!)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swing examples.JPG Size: 77 KB
  • #179
  • Oct 25, 2016 12:16pm Oct 25, 2016 12:16pm
here have set the look back to 3 bars, daily GJ. some nice moves


perhaps a new thread for this new system to avoid clutter and confusion?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swing 2.JPG Size: 93 KB
  • #180
  • Oct 25, 2016 12:22pm Oct 25, 2016 12:22pm
Do the triangles repaints?
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