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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,241
  • Oct 25, 2016 1:25am Oct 25, 2016 1:25am
Quoting Almo2312
{quote} this counting symbolize downtrend continuation i might say Cheers Al.
Well I really do not know. For now it gives us some usefull information about current partecipation in this market: total absence of bigger timeframes meaning with that total lack of involvment of any trader bigger than day time frames. This is also evident considering the volumes of the last days.
Consider also that all this game is about the weekly balance situation: it could continue as a balance (attempting break above and below and failing in both cases) or it could succeed above or below. If below we will have a continuation of the weekly one time framing lower trend, if above we could have s ubstantial correction eventually leading price back inside the monthly balance at 27948.
Let's see how it will develop.
Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,242
  • Oct 25, 2016 1:41am Oct 25, 2016 1:41am
Hello, Lock. I have been reading your thread with interest. Cable is now winding up tight as you have pointed out. Do you trade break outs?

My other question is how do you define "poor high" or "poor low"?

Regards
Gone to a better place
  • #1,243
  • Oct 25, 2016 1:53am Oct 25, 2016 1:53am
Im short gj
Attached Image
Daytrader
  • #1,244
  • Oct 25, 2016 1:59am Oct 25, 2016 1:59am
Quoting Lock
10:06 +1GMT GB poor low at 22153 and C period inside B that is inside A. We also have a very tiny range of 15 pips (a record from August) : possible break from here in a normal condition.

10:59 +1GMT

D eventually attempted a break out above BC balance and it is now testing overnight high at 22358. If we got acceptation obove it we could aim at the GB poor high cluster 2248-485. If not, back to the opposite side of the BC balance to take out the poor low at 22153.
Note anyhow that we got already acceptation inside yesterday GB range.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,245
  • Edited 2:16am Oct 25, 2016 2:02am | Edited 2:16am
Quoting mahimahi
Im short gj {image}
We have weaknesses above and below. So when you have a balance like that you have to go with the break and do not anticipate it. Obviously we could fail above and reverse. In this case the initial target is the opposite side of the balance. I suggest yo take the market a piece at a time.

EDIT: I'm sorry I didn't see you were referring at GBPJPY: I'm not observing it now so I cannot give any usefull information about it. Consider anyhow that this thread is dedicated to cable. Sorry again and have a good continuation.

Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,246
  • Oct 25, 2016 2:08am Oct 25, 2016 2:08am
Quoting smikester
Hello, Lock. I have been reading your thread with interest. Cable is now winding up tight as you have pointed out. Do you trade break outs? My other question is how do you define "poor high" or "poor low"? Regards
First of all thank you for your inerest: you are wellcome. I trade breaks if I see opportunity in them. It depends upon the overall condition of a particular market. About poor highs and poor lows it is "only" a technical definition in order to describe a composite reference made by at least a couple of m30 period lows or highs. It could underline that an auction is not over in that direction (above if poor high and below if poor low). But it could also underline the absence of buyers or sellers in one particular direction: this is the opposite of the previous case. To understand in which of the 2 we are is an entire world of considerations.
For the practical purpose, note that when we have more than one poor high or poor low in one particular sequence of sessions the odds about the possibility to take them out at least partially increases exponentially.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,247
  • Oct 25, 2016 2:20am Oct 25, 2016 2:20am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 10:59 +1GMT D eventually attempted a break out above BC balance and it is now testing overnight high at 22358. If we got acceptation obove it we could aim at the GB poor high cluster 2248-485. If not, back to the opposite side of the BC balance to take out the poor low at 22153. Note anyhow that we got already acceptation inside yesterday GB range.
11:20 Please note that D low is at yesterday GB open at the pip 22242. At the same time D & E made an other poor high at 2239: very weak environment again. Also in order to build a higher value from yesterday GB value we need to stay above yesterday GB unchanged at 22333. If not the current value will develop downside..
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  • #1,248
  • Oct 25, 2016 2:33am Oct 25, 2016 2:33am
11:33 Just to underline the uncertainty of this environment note that D period (the last period of Tokyo) closed exactly at yesterday Tokyo close, at the pipette 22375.
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  • #1,249
  • Oct 25, 2016 3:16am Oct 25, 2016 3:16am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 11:20 Please note that D low is at yesterday GB open at the pip 22242. At the same time D & E made an other poor high at 2239: very weak environment again. Also in order to build a higher value from yesterday GB value we need to stay above yesterday GB unchanged at 22333. If not the current value will develop downside..
12:16 Eventually 22242 taken out.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,250
  • Oct 25, 2016 3:36am Oct 25, 2016 3:36am
12:34 +1GMT
I see absolutely nothing here but trading money (meaning day timeframe traders and scalpers involved) Exceptionally narrow balance. Only exact references enywhere above and below. Very low volumes. I'm off for now. Let's see after the speaches and maybe in the next days.

PS: I'm not saying it cannot go somewhere right now, I'm saying that for now I've no edges to play here and no strong structural places to put my stops.

Have a nice continuation. Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,251
  • Edited 5:22am Oct 25, 2016 4:24am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting Lock
12:34 +1GMT I see absolutely nothing here but trading money (meaning day timeframe traders and scalpers involved) Exceptionally narrow balance. Only exact references enywhere above and below. Very low volumes. I'm off for now. Let's see after the speaches and maybe in the next days. PS: I'm not saying it cannot go somewhere right now, I'm saying that for now I've no edges to play here and no strong structural places to put my stops. Have a nice continuation. Best L.
Totally agreed.

Other timeframe buyers and sellers are agreed about value as it looks like (at the moment). And by that they do not trade with eachother. So what we see is local, middlemann (scalper) buying/selling from the other timeframe buyers/sellers. With less power, no conviction and less volume. That is what wee see I think.....

We also see again a Neutral day as Day-type structure (for now)

Indeed waiting for news..... and with that we can expect inbalance after that
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,252
  • Oct 25, 2016 6:09am Oct 25, 2016 6:09am
15:09 +1GMT
Current break made by preUS removed any weak reference below but the cluster lows at 1235 zone (Pit 10.17 at 2142, preUS 10.17 at 2137, GB 10.17 at 2135 and GB 10.13* at 2132)
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,253
  • Oct 25, 2016 6:12am Oct 25, 2016 6:12am
15:12+1GMT
It left a big minus development at 2181-2208 and a lot of sinlge pips in current C period. Note that none of the above weaknesses above has been corrected before current action. This is very suspect. Anyhow, let's see if pre US will build a consistent gap downside for upcoming pit session. If so and if not retraced quickly we could expect continuation downside or at least balance and acceptation of these new levels.

Note that 21353 is the GO / NO GO level for the weekly possible breakout downside. It is the low of last week inside week of the previous one.

Quoting Lock
15:09 +1GMT Current break made by preUS removed any weak reference below but the cluster lows at 1235 zone (Pit 10.17 at 2142, preUS 10.17 at 2137, GB 10.17 at 2135 and GB 10.13* at 2132)
The cluster zone is no more. All removed. Note the huge amount of single pips of the current C period.

15:23 +1 GMT
3 minutes to go for PIt session and C paused its run 5 pips below the lowest close for pit session during October at 2119. Let's see if C will close above or below the weekly low at 21353. And specially let's see the behavior of the upcoming pit session about this fundamental level for today.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,254
  • Oct 25, 2016 6:32am Oct 25, 2016 6:32am
15:32 + 1GMT
Pit session opens with a big gap from yesterday low at 2192 and immediately went down to test the lowest October pit session close at 2119: acceptation below or above it could be fundamental to interpret the real intention of current sellers.

I repeat now: a lot of single pips for preUS C period and a minus development at 2181-2208. Only if the gap will resist we could skip the mess upside including in it the 7poor highs left above without correction.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,255
  • Oct 25, 2016 6:36am Oct 25, 2016 6:36am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 10:59 +1GMT D eventually attempted a break out above BC balance and it is now testing overnight high at 22358. If we got acceptation obove it we could aim at the GB poor high cluster 2248-485. If not, back to the opposite side of the BC balance to take out the poor low at 22153. Note anyhow that we got already acceptation inside yesterday GB range.

oops! my apologies cable!
Daytrader
  • #1,256
  • Oct 25, 2016 6:46am Oct 25, 2016 6:46am
15:46
Note that pit US open below the last week low at 21353. And for now it didn't test it.

20876 is the pit low of the weekly bracket: an other very important reference in this attempted weekly breakout form balance.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,257
  • Oct 25, 2016 6:59am Oct 25, 2016 6:59am
Quoting Lock
15:32 + 1GMT Pit session opens with a big gap from yesterday low at 2192 and immediately went down to test the lowest October pit session close at 2119: acceptation below or above it could be fundamental to interpret the real intention of current sellers....
Note the multiple tests at that level...

16:03 open tagged at 2126

16:08 still up and down 2119
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,258
  • Oct 25, 2016 7:15am Oct 25, 2016 7:15am
Quoting Lock
15:46 Note that pit US open below the last week low at 21353. And for now it didn't test it. 20876 is the pit low of the weekly bracket: an other very important reference in this attempted weekly breakout form balance.
16:15 Testing it now.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,259
  • Oct 25, 2016 7:26am Oct 25, 2016 7:26am
A fast recap(16:29 before speach):

  1. Pit gap downside from yesterday pit low (2192) still in place.
  2. acceptation below the lowest pit session close of October 2119
  3. acceptation below the weekly balance at 21353 (never tested since open)
  4. only one single test below the weekly bracket at 20876.
  5. a lot of single pips for preUS C bar and a minus development above at 2181-2208
  6. all the weaknesses above not corrected before the break.

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,260
  • Edited 7:58am Oct 25, 2016 7:37am | Edited 7:58am
16:37 Again at the the lowest pit session close of October 2119

16:46 21138 is the current POC of preUS+pitUS sessions (4 letters there):if you want to sell, do it somewhere above it. If you want to buy, buy somewhere below it. But in any case, what ever your decision do not buy or sell close to it or at it or you will be probably taken out.

16:57 C period is inside of B period: if so up to C close, watch out for a break somewhere.
Ubi maior minor cessat
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