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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,401
  • Edited 7:32am Oct 24, 2016 7:00am | Edited 7:32am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote}. Fully expect a relief rally in the EURO after hikes are compmeted, like last year- at which point EU mid term nuetral and short term buy. Thoughts?
I agree. Hikes should price in near fully by the meeting (except US equities which should remain the drunk guy at the party still dancing on the bar at last call) so a larger hike and/or bump up in the coming projected hike schedule would be required to keep pushing eu lower from the usd side in short term. Mid term is harder to call til then. My 2 cents.
  • #144,402
  • Oct 24, 2016 7:44am Oct 24, 2016 7:44am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} ...So my stab is this: Nothing leading me to change EU outlook, however; RR is getting dicey and less attractive for shorts at these levels. Until FED hikes and Brexit-status are determined, EU will remain in a sell outlook. To a lesser extent the US elections and EU economic numbers, which may give a dencent bounce for those aforemenetioned RR traders to get back on the short side. Fully expect a relief rally in the EURO after hikes are compmeted, like last year- at which point EU mid term nuetral and short term buy. Thoughts?
Now we are finally talking.... I wont bias neither give my detailed view right now as otherwise it will become in a monologue that will only handicap honest traders willing to develop those FA skills .... let's keep the conversation open for others to jump in ...

Eyes on the open with continuation from Friday in Equities on the background for early this week till GDP numbers...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,403
  • Oct 24, 2016 7:48am Oct 24, 2016 7:48am
Quoting sisse
...We have Asian, Europe and now the US coming to the table so enough time for all to jump in .... Last call .... IN +++++ OPENING TABLE for Iteration 20E +++++ Currently Euro trading @ 1.088x "Survival of the fittest | Winners take all" -> LMT BUY 1.081x -> TP1 => 1.091x -> | STP > 1.075x -> LMT SELL 1.091x -> TP1 => 1.081x -> | STP > 1.097x Fadhl CommercialB nutts goosebone...

Table will close automatically with the bell/opening range...so last few minutes

Thanks ad GL all ...

IN

+++++ TABLE CLOSING for Iteration 20E +++++

Currently Euro trading @ 1.088x

"Survival of the fittest | Winners take all"


-> LMT BUY 1.081x -> TP1 => 1.091x -> | STP > 1.075x


-> LMT SELL 1.091x -> TP1 => 1.081x -> | STP > 1.097x

Fadhl

CommercialB

nutts

goosebone

clayjay

hoom

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,404
  • Oct 24, 2016 7:56am Oct 24, 2016 7:56am
Can I join with a sell please ?
  • #144,405
  • Oct 24, 2016 8:21am Oct 24, 2016 8:21am
I keep shorting, LMT SELL
  • #144,406
  • Oct 24, 2016 8:56am Oct 24, 2016 8:56am
If I can I would sell for the iteration

-> LMT SELL 1.091x -> TP1 => 1.081x -> | STP > 1.097x
  • #144,407
  • Oct 24, 2016 9:06am Oct 24, 2016 9:06am
I'm also staying on the sidelines for now.
  • #144,408
  • Oct 24, 2016 9:08am Oct 24, 2016 9:08am
Sorry guys but this is the last iteration and only open to the handful of traders who are still in (survival of the fittest).
You reap what you sow.
  • #144,409
  • Oct 24, 2016 9:19am Oct 24, 2016 9:19am
I don't think sisse will allow any modifications in the iteration ... So hope of sideline vanished ... I will go with trend ... Sell please ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,410
  • Oct 24, 2016 9:29am Oct 24, 2016 9:29am
Quoting Pharm0r
So my stab is this: Nothing leading me to change EU outlook, however...
Thanks for taking a stab. At this time of the night and after just watching the awesome new TWD opener, I don't have much more to add! Except I think you forgot to mention the ECB bond-buying situation, i.e. taper or continue from April. I think an abrupt stop is out of the question from the way Draghi answered one of the questions last week.. "very unlikely" ?). We'll probably hear more about that in December. Also the French elections might have an impact nearer the time.

I think the US election could cause massive shockwaves if an unexpected event occurs. I don't just mean Trump winning, I mean something more sinister than that which I won't go into here (and hopefully won't happen anyway). There are also hackers to be aware of... hacking news sites with shocking news which would be read by algos and cause another flash-crash. The probability is very low, but the thought has made be abandon one of my potentially high-risk option trades today. I don't want to be exposed to too much risk within the next two weeks!

Anything else? Can't think right now. Ah... there's the BoJ of course, but that doesn't affect EUR/USD much. I'll have a think about it this week and let you know. Cheers!
You reap what you sow.
  • #144,411
  • Oct 24, 2016 9:53am Oct 24, 2016 9:53am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Thanks for taking a stab. At this time of the night and after just watching the awesome new TWD opener, I don't have much more to add! Except I think you forgot to mention the ECB bond-buying situation, i.e. taper or continue from April.
legend says no one ever feared zombies more than a Negan since that night .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,412
  • Oct 24, 2016 10:05am Oct 24, 2016 10:05am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Thanks for taking a stab. At this time of the night and after just watching the awesome new TWD opener, I don't have much more to add! Except I think you forgot to mention the ECB bond-buying situation, i.e. taper or continue from April. I think an abrupt stop is out of the question from the way Draghi answered one of the questions last week.. "very unlikely" ?). We'll probably hear more about that in December. Also the French elections might have an impact nearer the time. I think the US election could cause massive shockwaves if an unexpected...
You lost me at the TWD....no idea what you're referencing there - seems hoom got it though

I didn't forget to mention ECB- I simply don't have a worthwhile opinion to offer, however; I was hoping to get some input from others in the thread on that one, as I haven't been following it closely enough and missed the last meeting completely (a travesty I know)- perhaps those on the otherside of the pond from myself will have a better opinion on the situations there and can fill in some blanks..

I do show on technicals that a bounce from here with EU and DXY are possible- and if so then $95.32 on Dollar and $1.1263 on EU are normal. That being said, and with my hand freshly burnt- I wouldnt take a trade here, but I'd short at those to spots with some hammers or engulfing candles. (buy in the case of dollar futures). This being if time till hikes allows.

As a side note- S&P looks like it wants to attack the highs. Maybe one last time in anticipation of no hikes Sept but hikes in December.
  • #144,413
  • Oct 24, 2016 10:23am Oct 24, 2016 10:23am
Quoting hoom
{quote} legend says no one ever feared zombies more than a Negan since that night .
I am literally avoiding all social media so no one spoils last nights episode and my heart started beating when TWD was mentioned here... I'm just gonna watch It right now because I'm not safe anyway I go on the net.... Lol
  • #144,414
  • Oct 24, 2016 10:51am Oct 24, 2016 10:51am
The Walking Dead
  • #144,415
  • Edited 11:49am Oct 24, 2016 11:12am | Edited 11:49am
as there is mostly nothing to do around the board. technically interesting is A/U - I remember sisse was mentioning the pair as taking it back to trading desk. so far not much happened but it may be ready for a move. just quickly scetched these maps:

short term:neutral status until further data? (interesting to see, how the A/U was not influenced by US interest pricing in =) it was overweighted by something on AUD side - any idea??)

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mid term: neutral or already sell? (for now may be neutral but soon - we switch to sell via interest rates differentials - RBA almost finished with easing cycle but not yet completely? expectations of Brexit turbulance =) sell on AUD side via lower demand for commodities?)

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long term: sell

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Just some idea as I was not tracking australia for the FA but from TA is looks like something is cooking plus the commodity currencies are harder to track via the connection with commodities which I do not understand so well
  • #144,416
  • Oct 24, 2016 11:42am Oct 24, 2016 11:42am
Quoting chester123
as there is mostly nothing to do around the board. technically interesting is A/U - I remember sisse was mentioning the pair as taking it back to trading desk. so far not much happened but it may be ready for a move. just quickly scetched these maps: short term: neutral status until further data? (interesting to see, how the A/U was not influenced by US interest pricing in =) it was overweighted by something on AUD side - any idea??
Risk on after China data last couple of weeks ! it is fading though...
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,417
  • Oct 24, 2016 11:51am Oct 24, 2016 11:51am
oh, the walking dead lol
  • #144,418
  • Oct 24, 2016 11:57am Oct 24, 2016 11:57am
Quoting hoom
{quote} Risk on after China data last couple of weeks ! it is fading though...
yes, that perfectly makes sense. now it seems the minute something hits the markets A/U is gonna dive (as wel as copper for example - TA looks awfully bearish). but with easing CB and clinton winning elections and good macro numbers so far seems short term neutral is adequate (risk on - equities are the proof). but after we pass that I think the mid term leg to final long term extension is gonna develop via hikes + brexit later and all the global slump EU is goona create.
  • #144,419
  • Oct 24, 2016 1:58pm Oct 24, 2016 1:58pm
A calm US session but very noisy close in the UK front. Brexit reaching maximum danger levels.

Its getting out of control, banks ready to leave and make the official announcement and in the political front the Union is on the brink with N.Ireland and Scotland ready to pull the trigger while the government is losing control both in the constitutional fronts and more importantly in the market front.

It's going to blow earlier than I thought and markets and most analysts cant really see a light at the end of the tunnel to hold for much longer. UK triggering early major imminent panic alerts and this time is not only in Sterling (already on the move since last week) but for the first time since the vote in UK Equities.

Tracking very closely UK numbers now that there are still expected to hold and at least give some breather on the plethora of bad news on the Brexit front from the UK the last few weeks. Any flop could trigger panic. BOE Nov may not be enough to avoid what is cooking in the background in Equities but is guarantee that a panic leg in Sterling lossing th 1.120x handle will send massive shockwaves across the board...

Slightly unexpected developments in the markets for this week but UK back on center stage with YEN as key catalyst for the risk play as Gold is subdued to the FED hikes play.

sisse

Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} ...ust watching the awesome new TWD opener, I don't have much more to add! ....
Quoting Pharm0r
oh, the walking dead lol
je je je ...i also thought was new ETF tracker for the brexit collapse ... lol ... I am sure more than one of the bastards prolly already is working in one

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,420
  • Oct 24, 2016 2:22pm Oct 24, 2016 2:22pm
FTSE chart is looking veeery ugly. If BoE is mostly priced in. The moment its (and US elections) clear its gonna be wild ride down until someone stops the UK madness. Unfortunately the train is in the motion so not likely until some major blow-out happens. And if carney resignes.... lol
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