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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,381
  • Oct 23, 2016 8:06pm Oct 23, 2016 8:06pm
Hi: It is difficult to understand whether we are still in range or breaking out. I use patterns like flag, momentum etc to identify this....In your bad long trade case, it was obvious because there were bad news coming out of Europe and the downward momentum was picking up..

Let's try to predict when will you close your shorts in this current down move.. It is clear to me the direction is still south. I would not even think about longs at this point.. so we are still in SELL short term (guess it is the right sisse language).. We will follow this and see if we can identify the sentiment (outlook) change (Hopefully around the same times as sisse)

The sentiment sisse put out is invaluable, I can tell you the organizations like the one i am working employ machine learning/predictive analytics engineers to go through all kinds of data (social media data, market data, etc) to identify this on a daily basis.

Quoting Pharm0r
You are 100% right, before you even wrapped up your long winded explanation I saw the error...I realized I mapped out a great short trigger, and a target that was inline with 1.08xx, and then at the last moment I was swayed to try and catch both sides because I felt that a bounce should happen before target. In essence, I did exactly what you said towards the end of your write-up {quote} I placed my faith in mofu more than direction- and I knew better than to do it, yet fell on bad habits. Thanks for your post! Invaluable. BUT That leaves one burning...
  • #144,382
  • Oct 23, 2016 8:10pm Oct 23, 2016 8:10pm
[quote=Fadhl;9205090]Sisse: I've a question on Gold Outlook which is Neutral...
In order to learn how we can be able determine any outlook, I've questioned the Gold Outlook. For me, the short-term outlook "should" be Sell.
Also, I may ask you or anyone else who wants to weigh in to assess my assessment of the Aussie Outlook (AUD) which, in my view, is Sell for short and mid-term. Based on the recent fundamental data from Aussie (i.e., Employment Change negative for the last two months; decrease in full-time jobs and increase in part-time jobs) and their implications in the future (e.g., less money to spend; shift in the economy structure from sustainable to critical jobs).
I'm just asking to correct me (and may be other people) in these both cases and guide us to the tools that we should look for... Thanks in advance!
  • #144,383
  • Oct 23, 2016 8:20pm Oct 23, 2016 8:20pm
Not sure if sisse posted gold outlook or not. Here is mine.
XAU/USD, should go down because of the rate hike expectations but it is prevented from going down due to the bad news and bad economic numbers. I will have gold on SELL but i think it will make a tight range for some time and will start breaking down when the hike news will come back up again. So trading wise, i will not pull the trigger until i see pick up in momentum to downside and I will not trade Long side until something really big happens on the FA side.

Quoting Fadhl
Quoting Fadhl
Sisse: I've a question on Gold Outlook which is Neutral... In order to learn how we can be able determine any outlook, I've questioned the Gold Outlook. For me, the short-term outlook "should" be Sell. Also, I may ask you or anyone else who wants to weigh in to assess my assessment of the Aussie Outlook (AUD) which, in my view, is Sell for short and mid-term. Based on the recent fundamental data from Aussie (i.e., Employment Change negative for the last two months; decrease in full-time jobs and increase in part-time jobs) and
...
  • #144,384
  • Oct 23, 2016 9:03pm Oct 23, 2016 9:03pm
Quoting sisse
... In simple words, successful and consistent trading comes from been very active defining direction and outlooks but very patience and passive on the triggers...
Thanks for taking the time out of your weekend to post this great wrap up Sisse. It's one to bookmark and keep reading until the principles become part of your soul. I'm also looking forward to the TA hints coming in Chapter 8. Thanks
You reap what you sow.
  • #144,385
  • Oct 23, 2016 9:40pm Oct 23, 2016 9:40pm
As much as I wanted to be the hero and not the zero in this thread, I have appreciated all your efforts to educate minds like mine that get it wrong more
times than not.

I did close out of frustration and tired of holding onto a turd with poor money mangement and time. Every time it appeared the EU was going to go in my direction----IT DIDNT.

I was able to recoup my loss of profit by shorting at .127x. However, I must concede I am not in the top 12 left and am a loser in this contest. But, I am closer to being a better trader than I was last Dec because I put my ignorance and self out there before a person who knows his stuff.

I dont regret anything as it helped many despite if I still struggle to grasp all of this. Thanks sisse.
  • #144,386
  • Oct 23, 2016 10:05pm Oct 23, 2016 10:05pm
After reflecting a few hours, I'm glad I missed that trade. Had I not, I do believe I would have missed the point entirely. Thanks for the tough love sisse

IMARICH1, don't beat yourself up over the iterations- the real gold is what you've learned, as well as the community we've built in the thread that should help all of us participants be more successful generally speaking. Don't forget- you've stepped into a thread that has historically been full of "real" traders, and people that have done it longer than yourself....
  • #144,387
  • Oct 23, 2016 10:39pm Oct 23, 2016 10:39pm
The questions you ask and the answers sisse gave you not only helps you but people like me watching this thread. Thank you for all that and keep asking questions... Regarding your struggle to grasp, I think you already have grasped the idea but the issue is occasional mistakes (going against the rules). i do not think you or anybody will reach a point where we consistently follow the rules that sisse is teaching every single day/hour. I do not think it is possible (Leave that for computers). We are going to make mistakes and we need to be aware of this and correct the mistakes (close the "turds") once we realize it.

Quoting IMARICH1
As much as I wanted to be the hero and not the zero in this thread, I have appreciated all your efforts to educate minds like mine that get it wrong more times than not. I did close out of frustration and tired of holding onto a turd with poor money mangement and time. Every time it appeared the EU was going to go in my direction----IT DIDNT. I was able to recoup my loss of profit by shorting at .127x. However, I must concede I am not in the top 12 left and am a loser in this contest. But, I am closer to being a better trader than I was last Dec...
  • #144,388
  • Oct 23, 2016 11:21pm Oct 23, 2016 11:21pm
Quoting Pharm0r
... IMARICH1, don't beat yourself up over the iterations- the real gold is what you've learned, as well as the community we've built in the thread that should help all of us participants be more successful generally speaking...
However, knowing the principles is one thing but they only work well if you know the direction. This is what you were talking about last week Pharm0r. If we get the FA wrong then we'll probably be trading our maps wrong (except at extremes maybe when there's less chance of error). So how do we get the FA and outlooks right? This is what you asked Sisse last week and I completely understand your concern and frustration with this. Even if you read and trust all the news and outlooks posted by the institutions each week you'll still have to deal with a lot of contradictions and differences of opinion. Maybe the only real way to get good at this is with experience, as I think Sisse pointed out. You have to do a lot of reading and digesting information, and you have to know what's important and what isn't. I hope we can all get much better at this in the future, and I guess we should all (not just Sisse and a few others) try to post our FA opinions here more often so we can discuss them in a productive manner and hopefully gain better intuition of what's important and what isn't. For instance, an "important" piece of news comes out that makes us want to change the short-term outlook to neutral (or whatever) - so let's post that here, forget about looking like a dick if it's wrong, and get some feedback on it from Sisse, Chester, or anyone else who might have an opinion on it!

And yes, thank you Imarich1 for starting all this. I've lost thousands over time making the same the mistake as you (holding a loser too long and then exiting at exactly the wrong time). But I'm still around and have made it all back one way or the other. If I can do it then anyone can! So there's hope for us all
You reap what you sow.
  • #144,389
  • Oct 23, 2016 11:37pm Oct 23, 2016 11:37pm

+++++ OPENING TABLE for Iteration 20E +++++

Currently Euro trading @ 1.088x

"Survival of the fittest | Winners take all"


-> LMT BUY 1.081x -> TP1 => 1.091x -> | STP > 1.075x


-> LMT SELL 1.091x -> TP1 => 1.081x -> | STP > 1.097x


you said that iteration 20d will be a tough one .... but i think this one is what we call it a tough one .... you should be giving another option of getting neutral/sideways .... i see both the orders will be executed with no tp hit instead of both sl will be hit

already read every point for more than 10 times but right now really seems getting something missing or lost ... a BIG THANKX TO YOU for such an explanation ...

what i see in E/u right now is a test of 1.098x with S/l above the last LH ... i see a resume in downtrend with a test of 1.098x .... but if it doesn't test that its as always a free fall to test the lows of 2015 ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,390
  • Oct 24, 2016 1:12am Oct 24, 2016 1:12am
@sisse is there any sideline option available . ?
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,391
  • Oct 24, 2016 1:13am Oct 24, 2016 1:13am
Limit sell thanks, resistance at 1.095 could be telling

-> LMT SELL 1.091x -> TP1 => 1.081x -> | STP > 1.097x
  • #144,392
  • Oct 24, 2016 2:06am Oct 24, 2016 2:06am
sisse please take me out of the iteration as well since you took NorthTrader out as well, because I too said would have chosen the long side if I'd been around, it's not fair to take him out and leave me in. Thanks

But I'm happy that I was in the right direction, it's just the iteration for me didn't seem good RR, so I would have gone with a Buy and once I hit tp, I would have gone short again.
  • #144,393
  • Oct 24, 2016 5:49am Oct 24, 2016 5:49am
seen this volume/lots for the 1st time in ff ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled.png Size: 26 KB
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,394
  • Oct 24, 2016 5:52am Oct 24, 2016 5:52am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Thanks for taking the time out of your weekend to post this great wrap up Sisse. It's one to bookmark and keep reading until the principles become part of your soul. I'm also looking forward to the TA hints coming in Chapter 8. Thanks
Subscribed.

There is a lot of generosity and unselfishness in occupy your free time preparing so detailed infos for everyone.

I do not comment about the value, it is plain for all
  • #144,395
  • Edited 7:40am Oct 24, 2016 6:17am | Edited 7:40am
Good numbers from the EuroZone while the UK keep descending slowly into the abysm with a blind unprepared government not even elected directly to have the 'monopoly' of the future of the UK playing populism and gambling the future of Great Britain as a such ....

Any small trip in the UK economy or the political side (Scotland and all that), or soft announcement of banks pulling the trigger and we are aligning for a rather sharp, fast & furious snowball reaction....

For now...nothing to see or do with a relatively light calendar this week but with key technicals in play for the M close as they will set the election / FED hikes final path of the year...

sisse

Quoting sisse
{quote} We are reaching the end of the game...
On the iteration front. Timid board. We have Asian, Europe and now the US coming to the table so enough time for all to jump in ....

Last call ....

IN

+++++ OPENING TABLE for Iteration 20E +++++

Currently Euro trading @ 1.088x

"Survival of the fittest | Winners take all"


-> LMT BUY 1.081x -> TP1 => 1.091x -> | STP > 1.075x


-> LMT SELL 1.091x -> TP1 => 1.081x -> | STP > 1.097x

Fadhl

CommercialB

nutts

goosebone

clayjay

hoom

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,396
  • Oct 24, 2016 6:30am Oct 24, 2016 6:30am
-> LMT BUY 1.081x -> TP1 => 1.091x -> | STP > 1.075x

Lets go against the grain for this one
  • #144,397
  • Oct 24, 2016 6:33am Oct 24, 2016 6:33am
Quoting sisse
key technicals in play for the M close as they will set the election / FED hikes final path of the year...
Watching 0822 and 0808. No break of these on the Month and I imagine iteration shorts get stopped as some st retrace is on order.
  • #144,398
  • Oct 24, 2016 6:38am Oct 24, 2016 6:38am
i am sidelined if sisse allow's ....

for iteration 20e i must say sisse you are way too smart .... HATS OFF
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,399
  • Oct 24, 2016 6:45am Oct 24, 2016 6:45am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} However, knowing the principles is one thing but they only work well if you know the direction. This is what you were talking about last week Pharm0r. If we get the FA wrong then we'll probably be trading our maps wrong (except at extremes maybe when there's less chance of error). So how do we get the FA and outlooks right? This is what you asked Sisse last week and I completely understand your concern and frustration with this. Even if you read and trust all the news and outlooks posted by the institutions each week you'll still have to...
Agreed, I think perhaps the idea is to have a virtual think-tank of FA in the group, in such a way that more often than not the direction is decided correctly after much info is digested from traders around the world in different life-situations. As you and sisse said, only way is to put it out there.

So my stab is this: Nothing leading me to change EU outlook, however; RR is getting dicey and less attractive for shorts at these levels.

Until FED hikes and Brexit-status are determined, EU will remain in a sell outlook. To a lesser extent the US elections and EU economic numbers, which may give a dencent bounce for those aforemenetioned RR traders to get back on the short side.

Fully expect a relief rally in the EURO after hikes are compmeted, like last year- at which point EU mid term nuetral and short term buy. Thoughts?
  • #144,400
  • Oct 24, 2016 6:45am Oct 24, 2016 6:45am
Lmt Sell

Thx for the wrap up Sisse .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
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