Disliked{quote} Luckily it happened as I thought, although I quit the market b4 London open Bcuz of the weak hands as u sayIgnored
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Disliked{quote} Luckily it happened as I thought, although I quit the market b4 London open Bcuz of the weak hands as u sayIgnored
Disliked{quote} aha...! Thanks! Well I hope I'm not bothering you with my post....Ignored
DislikedAlso a poor high... Sorry guys but I'm off. I will not trade such an environment. If it will continue in this way I think we got a serious problem with cable. Have a good continuation and let's see next week. Best L.Ignored
Disliked16 10 21 Friday 08:57 EARLY MORNING REPORT First of all let me say that current situation is very rare. We have all the last sessions with poor highs starting from Wednsday pit session 23222, continuing with Tokyo 22974, GB 2286 and pit session 2274 from yesterday. Then also today Sydney 22595. The only one without a poor high is current Tokyo that anyway is tagging Sydney high making it even more weak.Ignored
DislikedOnly a stronghold made by a big gap downside from yesterday GB low (22504) could avoid a correction in a normal condition: but is current situation normal?, is the question.Ignored
Disliked09:18 +1GMT GB opened with a small gap and start to go down from it. Will this little gap be enough to skip the mess upside? I really do not know the correct answer. The only thing I know is that if it will continue downside, below we got the composite poc at 2193 and the very weak zone at 2135.Ignored
DislikedLet's see what this very strange and extremely weak market is going to do: note that GB value from yesterday was below the GB value of the day before as today current GB value is developing below that of yesterday.Ignored
DislikedA low tagged exactly the top of the GB gap upside at 22294 (GB low from 10.17) I do not like at all this market what ever it si going to do. I suggest to be very prudent because in my experience this is an extremely rare environment. 09:29 +1GMT If we retrace the little gap and we find acceptation above it we could eventually retrace the weaknesses above.Ignored
DislikedBut watch out because curent low is weak as it is a tag a of a previous GB low.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Any move that use exact references as starting point is a weak move for definition. At least initially. Because the only people who know and use such refs to trade are weak hands. Stronger hands didn't know them nor they could care less about them. Slightly bigger timeframes could eventually act against them when they find weakest hands piling on very weak move like current one.Ignored
DislikedEXAMPLE: we have a mess of weak levels above, anyone of them made by an exact reference: where do you think are the weakest hands and where do you think are the slightly stronger hands right now?Ignored
DislikedWeakest hands are clearly above, slightly stronger could be nowhere or waiting downside some where. If they are nowhere (not present in current market) a very weak move like this could continue anyhow. But if they are somewhere downside waiting when we finally find them we will have a correction upside and a punishment for all those weak guys piling on this move.Ignored
DislikedSo in this case I do nothing and wait. Maybe I'm going to lose a big move downside but at least I'm not working against odds. And on the long run this is the only way to survive in markets.Ignored
Disliked11:59 This correction stalled exactly at current half back 2234: this provide us 2 usefull information. It is still weak going downside because we still have weak partecipants selling from exact references. It is a weak reaction upwards because stronger timeframes will never be stopped by weak hands at half back.Ignored
Disliked12:44 Now G period is inside bar of F. Again: everything is weak above and below. The weak momentum is still down and for now I see no buyers at all. Very dangerous situation to trade. We have a double TAG at half back and if it will continue lower form here it will put itself in big troubles I think.Ignored
Disliked13:27 The weak break downside left a minus development in H period up to 22215: if removed there are odds for a correction upside, if preserved we could see price continue lower.Ignored
Disliked15:32 +1GMT Pit session opens with a gap downside, if preserved we could insist downwards. If retraced quickly, you know where it could go. Note the preUS poor low.Ignored
Disliked{quote} When a market is in such conditions of weakness you have to be very prudent. Maybe this time you didn't make profits but at least knowing the partecipants involved in and ruling a market like this a trader could skip some loss attempting here and there initially. Anyhow the important thing is to be consistent in the profits on the long run: stay with the odds and you could make it.Ignored
Disliked15:43 Very important note: up to yesterday pit session low 22185 we have a double pass gap (2201-22185). Upside from 10.17 session and downside from yesterday.Ignored
DislikedThis market goes from weakness to weakness: preUS poor low and current A period at preUS half back. Above countless weaknesses. Also note price up and down open... 16:01 also pit session poor low, B period high at half back. This is fantastic.Ignored
DislikedAlso a poor high... Sorry guys but I'm off. I will not trade such an environment. If it will continue in this way I think we got a serious problem with cable. Have a good continuation and let's see next week. Best L.Ignored
**just to quickly summarize the timeframes that could be involved in any possible market let me report here a list (used by JD):
Of this list when I'm referring to bigger timeframes I'm speaking about Short term, Intermediate and Long term traders.
Sessions
If we make a step forward, analyzing the session profiles of the last days starting from Sunday 10.16 (in the chart it is Sydney session 10.17) we clearly visualize what we were writing about the lack of partecipation in the daily timeframe.
As you see we got an incredible and very rare sequence of weak references above and below current price position (Friday 10.21 unchanged at 22287). Above price left something like 6 poor highs in a row ( GB 10.21 at 2248, Sydney 10.20 at 22597, Pit 10.20 at 2274, GB 10.20 at 2285, Tokyo 10.20 at 2298 and finally Pit 10.19 at 2322) while below Friday ended leaving behind 2 back to back poor lows made by pit session at 21706 and preUS session at 21857. Downside we also have a very suspect cluster of lows at 2135 zone (Pit 10.17 at 2142, preUS 10.17 at 2137, GB 10.17 at 2135 and GB 10.13* at 2132.)
*GB 10.13 is not visualized in the chart attached.
Now, having said that, let's analyze more in depth how this situation developed.
After the big liquidation made by 10.11 Pit session (226 pips downside) Sidney cover the inventories became too short up to 10.12 Tokyo high at 2325. From there Tokyo 10.12 itself started a new liquidation of the inventories built by Sydney now too long: this liquidation ended with the Thursday GB 10.13 low at 2132 (the base of the current bracket.) From there we saw a new short covering and a following liquidation ended with last week GB Monday low at 2135, just 3 pips above the bracket low made the week before.
After the weak low established on Monday 10.17 (it is weak because it took place too close too a previous low) we saw a new short covering up to the GB 10.19 (Wednsday) at 23317: note also in this case that this high is only 3 pips above the preUS high at 23286 made during the 10.11 big US liquidation. So it is evident that also in this case the top has not seen the partecipation of stronger timeframes that do not use exact references to act.
Now from there we saw the incredible weak liquidation that made 6 poor highs in a row, described previously. It is important to say that the poor highs are not the only signals underlining the weakness of this move downside: coming downwards price continuosly stalled at exact references. With this we have a confirmation of the fact that those who were leading this action were weak because if they were stronger they never stopped for pauses at exact weak references.
Eventually Friday GB session opened with a gap downside from 10.20 GB session low and after a very uncertain session it made a final attempt downside with a test spike (the last 2 periods of GB session) starting from 2220 (spike base).
The folowing US sessions (preUS and Pit) simply covered the inventories too short left by the GB weak action downside.
Note that while GB and US sessions went down building value lower session after session, their respective volumes progressively decreased: GB from 10.19 43054 to 10.21 24401 (almost the half of the starting volume upside), US Pit from 10.19 48086 to 10.21 31400. So for this reason we could say we have conflicting information.
A conclusion.
A spike is a form of benchmark. Traders tend to attempt a direction in order to observe the reaction of other market partecipants. The GB spike from Friday is consequently a very important test downside and we need to verify the reaction of upcoming GB sessions in order to evaluate the success or failure of that attempt. If GB will open below the spike or at the bottom of it we could read this as an initial acceptation of that attempt. If above its base (2220) or just some pips below it that test could be considered rejected at least initially and we could expect a correction upside.
In any case, even if price will accept that test continuing lower, I will not consider what we left above as a good start point for a significant move downside. The weaknesses left above are eccessive even in the possible presence of a gap dowside. So watch out if price continue lower because a possible reaction could be seen just after the correction of the cluster of lows at the 2135 zone.
If instead price will open above the spike base (2220) the odds are clearly in favour of a correction, at least partial, of the weaknesses left above. But also in this case, only removing the poor lows at 21706 and 21857 we could imagine something significant upside.
A very final note is about the 2 GB tiny gaps we still have to correct, one, above is less than 3 pips (2248-22504) the other one, dowside, is less than 6 pips (21977-22038): similar gaps generally are not left behind major price actions, so take them in serious consideration during upcoming GB session.
PS: the main composite POCs are at 2193 below and 2292 above: these are clearly important references because in a weak rotational environment leaded by weak hands, the POCs work as nodes of attraction for price.
DislikedHi LOCK, I really appreciate the work your doing and sharing it's really great work. I hope you keep going with it. One thing though, what I have on my screen is not what you have just posted on yours. I have read the entire thread a couple of times and found some instructions that have been very helpful. Any help (from anyone) with the settings so days are not split in segments is very much appreciated. Thanks. {image}Ignored
Disliked07:40 +GMT Today Sydney high at 2226 is the seventh poor high in a row from 10.19 2322 pit high: carry this info forward. .....Ignored
Disliked09:01 GB open inside Friday GB session range/value, above its spike downside. Spike base at 2220 could work as support.Ignored