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Attachments: 50 to 22000 in one week
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50 to 22000 in one week

  • #2,721
  • Edited 4:09am Oct 22, 2016 3:55am | Edited 4:09am
Quoting kpclick
{quote} If you can get the direction correct in the first place, why would you use his method in the first place? In that case wouldn't it make more sense to put large capital like 500000 instead 50, make relatively small size bet with very large margin for error, collect your target 1% profit for 20/30 or so pips move and close the day with 5k $500 profit? Repeat that for two weeks and you can have holiday for the rest of the year. {quote} In other words you believe you can make sharp point entries with guaranteed little draw-downs by better analyzing...
I think it's irresponsible to tell people to gamble in the market with large deposits. Without analyzing historical data, that's what you're doing.

Trading and gambling are similar in a sense except that traders are aware of the potential ROI, BECAUSE of historical data.

Look at what happened in the past, it's very likely to happen again.. statistics don't lie.

Yes, dear pessimists, there's no guarantee that it will be like this eternally. But hey that's not an issue, your 10/50/100k balance will still intact because you were risking 1%/trade.
  • #2,722
  • Oct 22, 2016 4:58am Oct 22, 2016 4:58am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} I think it's irresponsible to tell people to gamble in the market with large deposits. Without analyzing historical data, that's what you're doing. Trading and gambling are similar in a sense except that traders are aware of the potential ROI, BECAUSE of historical data. Look at what happened in the past, it's very likely to happen again.. statistics don't lie. Yes, dear pessimists, there's no guarantee that it will be like this eternally. But hey that's not an issue, your 10/50/100k balance will still intact because you were risking 1%/trade....
You did not read my response careful. That seems to be folly of most people recently, shortened attention span, perhaps due to Facebook and Twitter like communication. Did I mentioned this book before: "Read & Grow Rich: How the Hidden Power of Reading Can Make You Richer in All Areas of Your Life?". It is worth reading and not very long

My response was to a previous poster, who claims that to fix this system he can just get the direction right by chart analysis. So my response was that, if he is so sure of the direction direction and with his chart analysis skills can make sure sharp entries with nonexistent draw downs, why waste time betting only 50 euros, why not 500000. Do you see, what I mean?

Of course you are right. Nothing is guaranteed and nobody can get direction correct (for how long anyway?), hence my rhetorical question why fiddle with 50, why not put 500000, make hell a lot of profit in 2 weeks and rest of the year spend on holiday.

If you follow this thread for a while you could notice I am not a proponent of this method of speculating. Clearly it does not work.
  • #2,723
  • Oct 22, 2016 5:16am Oct 22, 2016 5:16am
Quoting HEvans
{quote} ...... Consider this: Even if you have a system that has a 40% chance of success, but because it has a fixed 2% risk and 4% profit ratio - you'd still end up in the green!
You got all right, up to this point. let me correct this:

Consider this: Even if you have a system that has a 40% chance of success and risk:reward 1:1.5000...0001 (not counting fees, spread and slippage), but because it has a fixed 2% risk and 4% profit ratio - you'd most likely still end up in the green (assuming your account can sustain long enough losing streak)!

[edit]

Oh, I forgot, we did not take into account cost of losing opportunities and time.

Let me explain you by example. You have your system as above. You study and tested hard for 2 years and finally it is working. You run this system for next 2 years with initial balance of 10k and indeed after 2 years you are in green. Lest say by 1k. Not bad, right?

But what would you achieve in those to 4 years and 10k, if you choose other paths. Would you be able to start next big thing in app and sell to google perhaps for 2 billions? Or maybe open a successful street restaurant with and make 200k profit year in year out?

...
  • #2,724
  • Oct 22, 2016 5:26am Oct 22, 2016 5:26am
Quoting kpclick
{quote} You did not read my response careful. That seems to be folly of most people recently, shortened attention span, perhaps due to Facebook and Twitter like communication. Did I mentioned this book before: "Read & Grow Rich: How the Hidden Power of Reading Can Make You Richer in All Areas of Your Life?". It is worth reading and not very long My response was to a previous poster, who claims that to fix this system he can just get the direction right by chart analysis. So my response was that, if he is so sure of the direction direction...
My apologies then, language barrier and probably short attention span as well
  • #2,725
  • Oct 22, 2016 6:17am Oct 22, 2016 6:17am
Quoting kpclick
{quote} You got all right, up to this point. let me correct this: Consider this: Even if you have a system that has a 40% chance of success and risk:reward 1:1.5000...0001 (not counting fees, spread and slippage), but because it has a fixed 2% risk and 4% profit ratio - you'd most likely still end up in the green (assuming your account can sustain long enough losing streak)! [edit] Oh, I forgot, we did not take into account cost of losing opportunities and time. Let me explain you by example. You have your system as above. You study and tested hard...
Now, now, let's not delve into much of the nuances. I was merely trying to drive to the main point as simply as I can. As it is, even such a simple message can be lost in translation.

As for opportunity costs, I strongly disagree with you - and you'd only realise the cost AFTER the fact.
Take the examples of the successful app/restaurant you mentioned. Notice you mentioned "successful" / the amount of profit it generated?
How would you know that before you even started or while you were working on it?
I was an employed app designer. Before I knew I had a created a multi-million dollar cash cow (which sadly, I never had any financial gain from) - I had no concrete proof that it would make its 1st million in just one year, and continue to do so for several years. All I had was my good 'ole hunch. This is what I mean by "realising the cost AFTER the fact".
  • #2,726
  • Edited 7:12am Oct 22, 2016 6:59am | Edited 7:12am
Quoting HEvans
This is what I mean by "realising the cost AFTER the fact".
Not really. I know for the fact, much much more professionals and business owners who make the living - you know, paying cost of comfortable life ect. I can easily suspect there are couple hundred millions people around the world like that. And that will most likely continue. It is very unlikely though, there are equal number of individual speculators who make the living from speculating. Therefor it seems chances for financial success are more in professional or entrepreneur field than market speculation. Taxation Office data might confirm. And so, time spend on market speculation for people with other desirable skills may be seen as cost of lost opportunity.

Now, example with your multi-million dollar app cash cow is not valid. You acted as apps designer, an employee. You were paid what you agreed to. It was not you who put money and idea forward and took the risk. And so why would you expect more than your compensation and farewell lunch? It was deal you agreed to and so it was fair.

So.....? Perhaps you can think of equally good idea for an app, implement it using your current skills and make the multi-million profit target that way. What do you think, what is better chance for you, in this specific case for multi-million dollars success, app or markets speculation?
  • #2,727
  • Oct 22, 2016 7:30am Oct 22, 2016 7:30am
Quoting kpclick
{quote} Not really. I know for the fact, much much more professionals and business owners who make the living - you know, paying cost of comfortable life ect. I can easily suspect there are couple hundred millions people around the world like that. And that will most likely continue. It is very unlikely though, there are equal number of individual speculators who make the living from speculating. Therefor it seems chances for financial success are more in professional or entrepreneur field than market speculation. Taxation Office data might...
Because you refer to a multitude of businesses . We must consider each business separately.

We must also consider that many entrepreneur businesses require a qualification and qualified personnel, an office / building = lots of money to start with.

Oh and you have to dedicate ALL of your time to that business.. trading is not like that.
  • #2,728
  • Oct 22, 2016 7:41am Oct 22, 2016 7:41am
This is the last day of bagX 's trading :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: yesterday.png Size: 53 KB


This week : - 99,9 of return , - 1.328 euros , - 760 pips.

This is the graph from the beginning : as you can see, after the " pure ass " of August , September and October have been a disaster .

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: overall.png Size: 20 KB


These are the real facts and cold numbers, not gossip or envy.
  • #2,729
  • Oct 22, 2016 7:41am Oct 22, 2016 7:41am
Quoting kpclick
{quote} Not really. I know for the fact, much much more professionals and business owners who make the living - you know, paying cost of comfortable life ect. I can easily suspect there are couple hundred millions people around the world like that. And that will most likely continue. It is very unlikely though, there are equal number of individual speculators who make the living from speculating. Therefor it seems chances for financial success are more in professional or entrepreneur field than market speculation. Taxation Office data might confirm....
I won't deny that there are plenty of successful businesses out there, but you fail to realise some things:

  1. For every successful business out there, there are many more failures. Proof? Google "success rate of businesses" look for the page that contains the stats.
  2. Your definition of successful is subjective. A guy making $100,000/year may think he's successful, while you may only acknowledge those that make 1mil /month. With that, your argument of "chances for financial success are more in professional or entrepreneur field" is also affected. Even your statement of "paying cost of comfortable life" is VAGUE.

The most important thing many fail to look at are the failures. When Angry Birds (AB) was a mega success, everybody wanted to make a mobile game just bcoz AB made it. But, did you know that Rovio made around 50 games that didn't do well before AB? Did you know that AB was just one of the games proposed in their product dev meeting? Did you know before AB, Rovio was close to bankruptcy?

So yeah, it's all champagne and fast cars when YOU talk about owning a business. But reality is, your chances of succeeding are no better than a trader succeeding.

Why then are there more billionaire businessmen, then traders? Well, that's another topic for another day. I was merely pointing out to you the fallacy of the argument "chances of a business succeeding is better than a trader's"

Quoting kpclick
{quote} Now, example with your multi-million dollar app cash cow is not valid. You acted as apps designer, an employee. You were paid what you agreed to. It was not you who put money and idea forward and took the risk. And so why would you expect more than your compensation and farewell lunch? It was deal you agreed to and so it was fair.
Tsk, tsk, tsk....pray tell - where do I mention I was expecting more compensation / was complaining about it? I merely stated a fact, and a sad one it was. Nothing more, nothing between the lines.

Quoting kpclick
{quote} So.....? Perhaps you can think of equally good idea, implement it and make the multi-million profit target that way. What do you think, what is better chance for you, in this specific case for multi-million dollars success, app or markets speculation?
My plan is simply this, raise capital via trading to start or invest in multiple businesses.

Also, don't take this the wrong way. Based on your reply - I can only conclude the following:

  1. You're not working, or
  2. You haven't worked long enough, or
  3. You're still in cloud 9

  • #2,730
  • Oct 22, 2016 8:06am Oct 22, 2016 8:06am
Quoting redoktober
This is the last day of bagX 's trading : {image} This week : - 99,9 of return , - 1.328 euros , - 760 pips. This is the graph from the beginning : as you can see, after the " pure ass " of August , September and October have been a disaster . {image} These are the real facts and cold numbers, not gossip or envy.
Why not simply add these facts too
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 94 KB
  • #2,731
  • Oct 22, 2016 8:13am Oct 22, 2016 8:13am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Because you refer to a multitude of businesses . We must consider each business separately. We must also consider that many entrepreneur businesses require a qualification and qualified personnel, an office / building = lots of money to start with.
Ok, lets choose some specialization in business. Lets focus on a narrow field: IT. And from that lest pick very narrow field: app designing. Quite in demand. Wherever you look IT, information, services is predicted to have growth in future economy. Versus retail forex traders. Fair comparison, right? Specialization versus specialization.

Obviously we are not going to get accurate data right now, so all that is only an estimate, a educated guess...

Questions:

How many apps designers in next 10 years will make at least 1 million.
How many app designers struggle to pay for basic living?

vs.

How many forex speculators in next 10 years will make at least 1 million.
How many forex speculators struggle to pay for basic living?

Answer:

8 millions app designers/developers. I can guess most of them are able to pay at least for basic living (rent, food, bills, transportation) and taxes. Many of them is be making 100000+ per year. I would say, in next 10 years at least half of them will make 1 million, that is 4 millions.

(http://www.fiercewireless.com/develo...lion-worldwide).

vs

1 million active trading account - total US retail forex traders was at 89.478 active accounts during Q4 2015 and multiplied by generous 10 to account whole world. Lest assume that on annual basis 50% of them is success full (making some money) and lets assume average account size is 10-20k (saw this some somewhere, to be verified). How many of them will be able to multiply their account 50-fold to make 1 million target in 10 years? 50% of that 50%? Or maybe 20% of that 50%? You see, at best it will 100k. In very optimistic approach.

And how many of them pay their living expenses from forex gains right now? Lest everybody answer this question to them self.

(http://www.financemagnates.com/forex...proved-trading)

So... where lays the real lost opportunity?

[edit]

Referring to your previous long post.

I regards a person a successful when it can pay for reasonable living. And as I said, as a anecdotal evidence, I now more successful professionals and business owners then market speculators.

I never said running a business or being competent professional is easy. I am aware of failure rate. I said, if target is 1 million profit, taking int account time and getting skills, business/profession has much better changes to reach that target than speculation.


...anyway, treads like this are not the best place to run such a analysis. Just some pointers...
  • #2,732
  • Oct 22, 2016 8:14am Oct 22, 2016 8:14am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} Why not simply add these facts too
But have you seen the bagX technique ?
What you call "profit" , in reality is pure ass , gamble, bet .
  • #2,733
  • Oct 22, 2016 8:21am Oct 22, 2016 8:21am
Quoting redoktober
{quote} But have you seen the bagX technique ? What you call "profit" , in reality is pure ass , gamble, bet .
I realize what you are saying but why degrade the person by calling it pure ass.
  • #2,734
  • Oct 22, 2016 8:36am Oct 22, 2016 8:36am
Quoting Nala66
{quote} I realize what you are saying but why degrade the person by calling it pure ass.
pure ass = pure butt = luck !
I mean just " luck ", no offense .
  • #2,735
  • Oct 22, 2016 8:42am Oct 22, 2016 8:42am
I would say that poker is similar to Forex. First you learn the game, and then beat it (oponent). If you slowly loose that day, take that day off and start again next day. Play it smart = SL ant TP in place (in poker holdem you go with the bets and after river you calculate your winning chance). If you put SL 50 and TP 100 and win rate is 50% you are already in profit.
  • #2,736
  • Oct 22, 2016 8:42am Oct 22, 2016 8:42am
Quoting kpclick
And as I said, as a anecdotal evidence, I now more successful professionals and business owners then market speculators. I never said running a business or being competent professional is easy. I am aware of failure rate. I said, if target is 1 million profit, taking int account time and getting skills, business/profession has much better changes to reach that target than speculation. ...anyway, treads like this are not the best place to run such a analysis. Just some pointers...

The failure rate is greater because the newbies think to get rich overnight, they start this with unrealistic expectations, many other are simply gamblers like you see in casinos.Still the time and money people lose in case of failure on average is much less compared to most other fail businesses (if not all).
  • #2,737
  • Oct 22, 2016 8:44am Oct 22, 2016 8:44am
On Friday I took a $52 account and traded it to the max adding as more equity was made and in minutes turned it into $80.

That is 65% profit of pure ass if you like but it is still $65%

This year I started with just a $200 account and so far have banked exactly $9000 of pure ass

I hope to get to 10K by Xmas but every single trade I make is always going to be a gamble. To avoid gambling one has to eliminate risk and we cannot do that we can only control it.
  • #2,738
  • Edited 9:30am Oct 22, 2016 9:13am | Edited 9:30am
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} The failure rate is greater because the newbies think to get rich overnight, they start this with unrealistic expectations, many other are simply gamblers like you see in casinos.Still the time and money people lose in case of failure on average is much less compared to most other fail businesses (if not all).
I demonstrated you, on your demand, that in a narrow profession field there are approximately 50 times more successful people than in the whole forex global retail world. And that just one narrow field of a narrow part of whole business/professional/entrepreneur area. At this point I dont care why people loose forex, bankrupt business, break their careers, fail contracts; irrelevant, it happens for number of reasons. What matters is this: who can afford reasonable living as a group now and in the near future. And from evidence I showed, it is definitely not retail forex speculators as a group. Unless you can prove otherwise with some at least semi-objective evidence, you dont have a point

Original question was: where is a better chance to make reasonable living now and make 1 million in next 10 years. Clearly better change is by being business owner or professional or entrepreneur (for instance selling forex course and gaining fees from brokers for "inviting" new speculators).

And that is the fact.
  • #2,739
  • Oct 22, 2016 9:23am Oct 22, 2016 9:23am
Quoting Nala66
On Friday I took a $52 account and traded it to the max adding as more equity was made and in minutes turned it into $80. That is 65% profit of pure ass if you like but it is still $65% This year I started with just a $200 account and so far have banked exactly $9000 of pure ass I hope to get to 10K by Xmas but every single trade I make is always going to be a gamble. To avoid gambling one has to eliminate risk and we cannot do that we can only control it.
I don't know your strategy, but if your account has grown constantly from 200 to 9000 dollars it's not pure ass , but a solid and profitable forex strategy.
If it had been like that of bag , you don't arrive at Christmas .
  • #2,740
  • Edited 9:52am Oct 22, 2016 9:36am | Edited 9:52am
Quoting kpclick
{quote} I demonstrated you, on your demand, that in a narrow profession field there are approximately 50 times more successful people then in the whole forex global retail world. And that just one narrow field of a narrow part of whole business/professional/entrepreneur area. At this point I dont care why people loose forex, bankrupt business, break their careers, fail contracts; irrelevant, it happens for number of reasons. What matters is this: who can afford reasonable living as a group now and in the near future. And from evidence I showed,...
I mean that trading can be threatened both as a business and as a game. remove the gamblers and the dreamers and the success rate should be the same. Dreamers are an exception that you find only in this field, you don't start any other business with serious money without any knowledge thinking to get rich overnight!
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