(binned per thread starter's request) Trading system replication

AUDCHF on sight.

Stoped on long -0.3R, TPed on long +1R.

This one ?

I like it better on M5.

TPed ACHF. Also MXN and EA. All three trades along strong trends, could have sqeezed out on TPs more.

Yep that was the one i was shorting.

NU in.


MXN

MXN TP, NU SL, BE total.

GU +2R aprox.


Waiting for dollar to close above h1 range highs to confirm squeeze and push forward upside, good to catch some larger target shorts on GBP and EUR.


EDIT: USD just closed above range highs, looking for it to rip trough higher now. Trying to catch some shorts on GU EU /UCAD,MXN long.

Some more trades. Done for today +8% FX (+12R), +1.5% stocks. Even though that beginning of day was low on liquidity it nicely picked up in NY.





Log 2016, October 20th: 13 of 17th trades could have double extended TP, with 100% TP structural distance winning managment of BE SL it would overperform for nearly double the profits.

***Managing winners vs no managing. ***

Did TP study today while trading, UJ M5, 200 samples of setups. I have compared on sheet if managing the winners with different approaches or extending TPs would overperform to default 1:1 structural TP method. This was counted over 200 examples all compared across 5 different winners managing methods.

Since most of profitable traders that i know of use managing of winners method (70% of them) i did a study to confirm if there is statistical edge in it. The difference however is at what percentage and distance you manage them, that is very important and since this system is volatility adjusted it only makes sense to use volatility as guide, applied R as unit.

Risk method was the same across all methods, using candle close back inside trendline (or rejection candle if close enough) as SL.

1.Default 1:1 structural TP
2. 2:1 structural TP (double the structural distance for TP)
3.managing winners on 50% of 1:1 structural distance. When price reaches half of projected 1:1 TP distance, 50% of position is closed, SL is set to BE and the rest 50% of positon is then either TPing on 1:1 TP or being BE SLed.
4.Managing winners on 50% of 2:1 structural distance of TP. When price reaches 1:1 TP distance, 50% of position is closed, SL set to BE, and the rest of position has TP set on 2:1 of structural distance.
5.Managing 50% winners with 1:1 TP distance same as method 2, but the rest 50% of position is exited when micro lows/highs are broken instead of fixed target.


Method 1: 110 winners, 60 loses, avarage win 1R, avarage loss 0.4R, total net profit +75R.


Method 2: 80 winners, 85 loses, avarage win 2R, avarage loss 0.5R, total net profit +106R.


Method 3: 120 winners, 50 loses, avarage win 0.7R, avarage loss 0.4R, total net profit +70R


Method 4: 110 winners, 60 loses, avarage win 1.5R, avarage loss 0.4R, total net profit +125R


Method 5: 100 winners, 50 loses, avarage win 1R, avarage loss 0.5R, total net profit +80R.



Method 4 was statistically performing the best, which is what is also confirmed on my daily to daily logs that i keep from trades i take and recheck them at end of the day. Solid win to loss rate, highest avarage win to loss rate, highest profits overall. The most important take away is that since method 2 and 4 are similar, but only method 4 applies with managing of winners method and it outperforms method 2 by a lot on all fields. Method 1 and 3 are also similar while only method 3 is managing the winners, it has similar and a little better statistic overall however it has significantly lower risk since 50% of position sizes are taken of table usually in quick time window of when trade is taken (eg 5 candles).

Both methods of managing the winners have outperformed.

Todays setups to be taken (not all of them ofcourse, just some bulk):
http://prnt.sc/cwtfbu
http://prnt.sc/cwtfk9
http://prnt.sc/cwtfwy
http://prnt.sc/cwtgbu
http://prnt.sc/cwtgny
http://prnt.sc/cwth4a
http://prnt.sc/cwthjd
http://prnt.sc/cwthwa
http://prnt.sc/cwti4z
http://prnt.sc/cwtimt
http://prnt.sc/cwtiuk
http://prnt.sc/cwtj3e
http://prnt.sc/cwtjly
http://prnt.sc/cwtjvr
http://prnt.sc/cwtkpx

Good work here janpec..thumbs up!
I think it would be safe to say that both method 3 and 4 is most recommended .

USD squeeze completed.


It is setting now for larger up move on USD for next 2 months. EU weekly projected target on downside agrees.

Read through the first few pages last night and tried a quick scalp just a few minutes ago. 10 pips in about 2 minutes on the volatile GBPUSD chart. 5m and 15m trend is down. Entered on m1.

Will try some more when I have time. Thanks, Janpec1000, for this simple approach.

Took same short, however my target was smaller, but then again so was my risk.


Low liqudiity day today, also quite a lot of breakout fakes. Lets see if NY gets better.

I didn't take this one, but it worked perfectly where you have previously talked about getting in early on a news event during low volatility for a much better RR. It's almost like cheating! On this one, you could get in for the cost of 15 pips max and could've gained 100 +/- on the move. Bottom of the chart shows the low volume low risk entry and then volume surges on the news for a big win if you would've taken it.

1 more for 4 pips. Entered at 36 and got out at 32. Would've been 1:1 if I would've been quicker to exit when it hit the TL and bounced. Was a counter trade to the overall CAD move this morning. Appreciate any feedback if you think I'm on the right track with some of my screenshots and trades.

Nothing to add, solid entry, perhaps the only thing is reducing the risk if you can by using smaller SL or watching PA rejections near trendline to guide you for earlier exit if it goes against you.
I took similar short than you but on ECAD, was stoped out -0.5R.

Thanks for the feedback.