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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,121
  • Oct 20, 2016 8:44am Oct 20, 2016 8:44am
I'm sorry now but I got to go again. See you later. Have a nice continuation. Best L.
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  • #1,122
  • Oct 20, 2016 12:40pm Oct 20, 2016 12:40pm
Quoting Lock
15:15 +1GMT For now you are warching a big liquidation. Current C is at half back and current preUS session added its own poor hight to the list. Watch out. Below the possible pause is at composite poc as written. But I repeat it, watch out.
Quoting Lock
USDX is currently rallying. The cable has, as written this morning, its "final" target at 2135 zone. But we have composit poc before. This liquidation could lead to a correction of 2135 zone but leaving above a mess of weaknesses: carry this information forward if it will continue lower. PS: I was not present in the last 2 hours so I didn't follow this move from the start (nor I'm in it)
As you see the structure above was really too weak to let that price action continue lower without correction. As written I didn't go with the move downside nor I bought the low anyhow because I was away: a miss opportunity here.

Quoting Lock
15:40 +1GMT Now, the attempted breakout made by preUS has been retraced almost enirely but pit session opened with a gap downside. We have 2 possibilities here: the gap resists and in this case we go downside to the lower composite poc and maybe below it. The gap will not resist and in this case we are going to correct all the weaknesses above up to yesterday pit session poor high and more.
Now considering the way is going higher I cannot assure for a complete correction above even if current high is poor also for this session. Anyhow I'm off, so let's see tomorrow. Best L.
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  • #1,123
  • Oct 20, 2016 4:20pm Oct 20, 2016 4:20pm
Hi Lock,

I have some little questions about the Market Profile Tool you are using.

1) I use the same one.... I live in GMT+1 (The Netherlands), my broker opens the market at GMT
Then what session times I need to fill in at SydneyOpen, AsiaOpen, EuropeOpen USOpen and USPitOpen.
I'm asking because I sometimes have the idea that we have some different sessions-times. See also the screenshots...are my sessions the same as yours at the moment?

2)What is meant with "MergeProfileInfo" in this indicator? at the moment there is filled in "A:S+A-E-U-Up,B:S+A+E-U-Up,C:S+A+E+U-Up,D:S+A+E-U+Up,E:ALL,F:S-A-E-U+Up" ....

Or is there maybe somewhere a small description about this tool?

3) below the chart we can see the day and date followed by some numbers......is this going about volume.... see also my screenshot (question-mark)

You also talking often about the pit session...what is meant with that? => Time between 8:20 am – 3:00 pm ET (for British Pound)...

regards
Attached Image
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,124
  • Oct 20, 2016 5:45pm Oct 20, 2016 5:45pm
Quoting HappyMe
Hi Lock, I have some little questions about the Market Profile Tool you are using. 1) I use the same one.... I live in GMT+1 (The Netherlands), my broker opens the market at GMT Then what session times I need to fill in at SydneyOpen, AsiaOpen, EuropeOpen USOpen and USPitOpen. I'm asking because I sometimes have the idea that we have some different sessions-times. See also the screenshots...are my sessions the same as yours at the moment? 2)What is meant with "MergeProfileInfo" in this indicator? at the moment there is filled in "A:S+A-E-U-Up,B:S+A+E-U-Up,C:S+A+E+U-Up,D:S+A+E-U+Up,E:ALL,F:S-A-E-U+Up"...
So I'll answer you in the same order:

1) Times for sessions are (+1GMT)

  1. 23:00 Sydney
  2. 02:00 Tokyo
  3. 09:00 London
  4. 14:00 PreUS
  5. 15:30 Pit Session

Also consider that while for the pit session the close time is also the "unchanged" (23:00) for GB we have unchanged at 14:00 when preUS opens and close time at 18:00 when London forex ends. The same thing for Tokyo: its unchanged is at GB open (9:00) while its close is at 11:00. So the close of pit session E period is the close of London as the GB D period is the close for Tokyo. For this reason these periods are very important.

2) "MergeProfileInfo" is only a written description of the possible combination for session profiles you may choose in the next field downside.
Example:
A:S+A-E-U-Up means that choosing the letter A (in the next field write A) you are going to have a composite profile made by Sydney+Asia(Tokyo) sessions and then three separate profiles for the remaining sessions: Europe, USA(preUS) and USpit(pit session)
2nd Example:
E:S+A+E+U+Up means that choosing the letter E (in the next field write E) you are going to have a composite profile made by all the sessions put together Sydney+Asia(Tokyo)+Europe+USA(preUS)+USpit(pit session)
Is it clear?

3)Below you have in order: Name of the day, date, volume, range of the current session (in pips), distance from open to close(in pips) and finally the % of total session range given by the distance between open and close.
This is an important factor because one of the main information market is providing you is the "attempted direction", so for instance you want to know if current session is going higher or lower.
But at the same time the distance between open and close price mesures the success or failure of the attempted direction.
If for instance a session went higher but the distance from open and close prices is very little, how do you describe this: a succesfull attempt higher or a failed attempt higher?
Now this is exactly the reason for this data I added there: the % total session range given by the distance between open and close is a good indicator of the quality of an auction.
Example: let's say a GB session has a range of 100 pips going upside and then, at the end of it you will find a distance between open and close of 25 pips: how do you consider this session upside? A good or a bad attempt in the upwards direction? 25 pips is the 25% of the total range of 100 pips: not a good shot at all. Isn't it?
This information provides you also an other kind of help: let's say in the last 10 different sessions moving all in the same direction you have always little distance between open and close price for each session: how could you consider the overall progression of the major move upside? A good progression or a bad one? What about conviction and confidence?
Anyhow, do not forget that this is only one data point, one information: in order to evaluate the market you need to consider a vast amount of information comparing one each other.

Best L.

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  • #1,125
  • Oct 21, 2016 1:57am Oct 21, 2016 1:57am
16 10 21 Friday 08:57

EARLY MORNING REPORT

First of all let me say that current situatin is very rare. We have all the last sessions with poor highs starting from Wednsday pit session 23222, continuing with Tokyo 22974, GB 2286 and pit session 2274 from yesterday. Then also today Sydney 22595. The only one without a poor high is current Tokyo that anyway is tagging Sydney high making it even more weak.

Only a stronghold made by a big gap downside from yesterday GB low (22504) could avoid a correction in a normal condition: but is current situation normal?, is the question.
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  • #1,126
  • Oct 21, 2016 2:16am Oct 21, 2016 2:16am
Quoting Lock
{quote} So I'll answer you in the same order: 1) Times for sessions are (+1GMT) 23:00 Sydney 02:00 Tokyo 09:00 London 14:00 PreUS 15:30 Pit Session Also consider that while for the pit session the close time is also the "unchanged" (23:00) for GB we have unchanged at 14:00 when preUS opens and close time at 18:00 when London forex ends. The same thing for Tokyo: its unchanged is at GB open (9:00) while its close is at 11:00. So the close of pit session E period is the close of London as the GB D period is the close for Tokyo. For this reason these...
Very clear explanation!
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,127
  • Edited 2:41am Oct 21, 2016 2:18am | Edited 2:41am
09:18 +1GMT
GB opened with a small gap and start to go down from it. WIll this little gap be enough to skip the mess upside? I really do not know the correct answer. The only thing I know is that if it will continue downside, below we got the composite poc at 2193 and the very weak zone at 2135.
Let's see what this very strange and extremely weak market is going to do: note that GB value from yesterday was below the GB value of the day before as today current GB value is developing below that of yesterday.

A low tagged exactly the top of the GB gap upside at 22294 (GB low from 10.17)

I do not like at all this market what ever it si going to do. I suggest to be very prudent because in my experioence this is an extremely rare environment.

09:29 +1GMT
If we retrace the little gap and we find acceptation above it we could eventually retrace the weaknesses above. But watch out because curent low is weak as it is a tag a of a previous GB low.


Also note that USDX is continuing its rally and it is now very close to March high.

Poor high also for current GB: i-n-c-r-e-d-i-b-l-e.

If it will manage to go upside (who knows?) we could experience a fire cracker effect.

09:41 B low at half back: there is nobody trading this pair but weak hands for now.
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  • #1,128
  • Oct 21, 2016 2:45am Oct 21, 2016 2:45am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Very clear explanation!
Thanks, remember to stay out of a market if you do not know what is currently doing: this is the first rule for success. If you cannot stay away from it, work with a test account or a demo, just to clik the mouse: I do it and it keep me out of troubles.
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  • #1,129
  • Oct 21, 2016 2:53am Oct 21, 2016 2:53am
09:53 +1GMT (ed. 56)
Price went up and down open more than 100 times right now (I've a special indicator for this sort of count): huge indecision and lack of partecipation. Stay out of this mess is the suggestion and carry information forward.
A fast recap:

  1. 7 sessions in a row upside uncompleted with poor highs.
  2. current session poor high.
  3. current low weak at previous low.
  4. little gap downside
  5. current value lower than yesterday that is lower than the day before.
  6. very tiny range
  7. B period inside A period for now.

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  • #1,130
  • Edited 3:16am Oct 21, 2016 3:01am | Edited 3:16am
10:01 +1GMT
B inside A confirmed, it could make a break somewhere from here. Considering the situation watch out for fake breaks.

Price is bouncing between the H4 26 periods half back and the H4 9 periods half back, also it is now only 12 pips above the H4 52 periods half back: this means huge indecision. Note that if it will go below the H4 52 periods half back (22265) and it will find nothing we could have a correction inthe opposite direction.

10:09
USDX still rallying and currently it tagged March high.

10:11 poor low!

10:12 USDX March high taken out for some pips. Correction: it is still a TAG for now. Above it we have only Feb 99.616 and Gen 99.88 plus Dic 2015 100.66 above.
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  • #1,131
  • Oct 21, 2016 3:18am Oct 21, 2016 3:18am
Quoting Lock
10:01 +1GMT B inside A confirmed, it could make a break somewhere from here. Considering the situation watch out for fake breaks. Price is bouncing between the H4 26 periods half back and the H4 9 periods half back, also it is now only 12 pips above the H4 52 periods half back: this means huge indecision. Note that if it will go below the H4 52 periods half back (22265) and it will find nothing we could have a correction inthe opposite direction. 10:09 USDX still rallying and currently it tagged March high. 10:11 poor low! 10:12 USDX March high...
I have the feeling we need untill the net borrowing released....12min from now, before we see some movements here
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,132
  • Oct 21, 2016 3:20am Oct 21, 2016 3:20am
Ask yourself a question: knowing who are the partecipants of this market from the start of current session, how much money did you save just doing nothing? This is a huge edge against your competitors.
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  • #1,133
  • Oct 21, 2016 3:23am Oct 21, 2016 3:23am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} I have the feeling we need untill the net borrowing released....12min from now, before we see some movements here
It could be but, if so, it will be only a casus belli. Stronger timeframes don't wait for news acting right after them. If we will see something it will weak money again. Maybe a big move but a weak one for sure. At least initially.
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  • #1,134
  • Oct 21, 2016 3:28am Oct 21, 2016 3:28am
10:28 +1GMT
Note C high at open price 2243

10:31
D high at half back 2239

10:35 watch out here.
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  • #1,135
  • Oct 21, 2016 3:39am Oct 21, 2016 3:39am
Quoting Lock
{quote} It could be but, if so, it will be only a casus belli. Stronger timeframes don't wait for news acting right after them. If we will see something it will weak money again. Maybe a big move but a weak one for sure. At least initially.
Why do you call this weak money?
I mean all moves between the A and B sessions comes from locals. everything what is extended is coming from external timeframes. That's what I'm understanding now...

But how can you call this weak or strong money?
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,136
  • Oct 21, 2016 3:43am Oct 21, 2016 3:43am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Why do you call this weak money? I mean all moves between the A and B sessions comes from locals. everything what is extended this is coming from external timeframes. That's what I'm understanding now... But how can you call this weak or strong money?
Any move that use exact references as starting point is a weak move for definition. At least initially. Because the only people who know and use such refs to trade are weak hands. Stronger hands didn't know them nor they could care less about them. Slightly bigger timeframes could eventually act against them when they find weakest hands piling on very weak move like current one.
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  • #1,137
  • Oct 21, 2016 3:51am Oct 21, 2016 3:51am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Any move that use exact references as starting point is a weak move for definition. At least initially. Because the only people who know and use such refs to trade are weak hands. Stronger hands didn't know them nor they could care less about them. Slightly bigger timeframes could eventually act against them when they find weakest hands piling on very weak move like current one.
Ow yes.....makes sense.....it also was mentioned in the DVD's Thanks for the recap!

I have to make a sort of glossary from this sort of things....and then reading and understanding it every-day again and again...to make it mines
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #1,138
  • Oct 21, 2016 3:58am Oct 21, 2016 3:58am
EXAMPLE:
we have a mess of weak levels above, anyone of them made by an exact reference: where do you think are the weakest hands and where do you think are the slightly stronger hands right now?
Weakest hands are clearly above, slightly stronger could be nowhere or waiting downside some where. If they are nowhere (not present in current market) a very weak move like this could continue anyhow. But if they are somewhere downside waiting when we finally find them we will have a correction upside and a punishment for all those weak guys piling on this move.
So in this case I do nothing and wait. Maybe I'm going to lose a big move downside but at least I'm not working against odds. And on the long run this is the only way to survive in markets.
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  • #1,139
  • Oct 21, 2016 4:09am Oct 21, 2016 4:09am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Ow yes.....makes sense.....it also was mentioned in the DVD's Thanks for the recap! I have to make a sort of glossary from this sort of things....and then reading and understanding it every-day again and again...to make it mines
Absolutely correct. Considering the amount of different information present in a market, in order to grasp all this matter you need time: a considerable amount of time.
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  • #1,140
  • Oct 21, 2016 4:16am Oct 21, 2016 4:16am
11:16
First test below overnight. No serious buyers there but considering the weakness above it could be also a place for slightly bigger timeframes. Watch out anyhow because this market is incredibly weak.
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