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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #1,041
  • Oct 18, 2016 10:25am Oct 18, 2016 10:25am
The right one was the first one. The gap let this mrked skip the weaknesses below and supported by very weak momentum traders is filling the old gap downside. Carry all the information you got about the weaknesses below and stay with the trend. Unless the one timeframe higher will be interrupted the main rule is: do not going against trend. Do not fade a trend.

Anyhow I forgot an important info here: the next period is the last one for London: watch out because if something could go wrong upside this could happen right now.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,042
  • Oct 18, 2016 10:40am Oct 18, 2016 10:40am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 16:31 +1GMT It is now at 2314 low of the pit gap downside from 10.07 *Sorry for the typo of the original post: there I wrote 2414 instead of 2314 that is clearly an imprecision.
17:40
It is still up and down 2314 that is the high of Tuesday 10.11 pit move down: acceptation above it = continuation upside, no acceptation above it=back to the mean.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,043
  • Oct 18, 2016 10:48am Oct 18, 2016 10:48am
E period at half back/ GB high. Only trading money here. Too weak. I'm off as promised in such a case. Have a nice continuation. Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,044
  • Oct 18, 2016 1:04pm Oct 18, 2016 1:04pm
20:01 +1GMT

Just an update

Periods C, D and E closed below the 10.11 Pit session high at 2314. So there is no acceptation above it. From the start 8 periods of 9 went up and down open price at round 2300. This means no conviction at all in any direction. One time frame higher is no more from F period. Pit session high is weak as it tagged the high of 10.12 Tokyo session at 2325. (daily high)

With this, market information are not giving us any good indication for a continuation upside from here but the presence of a huge gap upside built by Sydney, Tokyo, GB and preUS. At the same time the TAG at 2325 is very suspect.
Current session could be an island reversal if upcoming sessions will build a gap downside untill tomorrow open at 15:30+1GMT.
The alternative is a continuation upside based only upon current GAP higher. Let's see tomorrow.

Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,045
  • Oct 19, 2016 1:19am Oct 19, 2016 1:19am
16 10 19 WEDNSDAY
08:19 +1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

A top down perspective.

Monthly
We are in a breackout from balance in the monthly timeframe. The balance was August, inside month of July. September attempted above it, failed and retraced back to the opposite side of August. Then October continued downside breaking below August, July and June: we are now somewhere below the half back (50%) of October.

Weekly
We are in a trend downside, with seven weeks in a row in one timeframing down mode, meaning that the high of the current week didn't took out the high of the week before, and so on up to the seventh period. Having said that, current week is inside previous week that is inside the week before, so we are in a balance properly in the last 2 periods: a weekly breakout is possible above 24437 or below 20883 that are respectively the high and the low of the last week (balance)

Daily
As written in the previous reports we were in a 4 days balance untill 10.14. Then 10.17 (Monday) attempted below balance, failed and yesterday went up to the opposite side of the daily balance taking out, during its path: 22011 (10.17 Monday high), 22608 (10.14 Friday high), 22722 (10.13 Thursday high) and eventually tagging, at the pip, 23248 (10.12 Wednsday high). Now, considering the situation the tag at 23248 is clearly very suspect and unsecure. But, at the same time, the way it reached it was so weak and grinding that a possible correction is more than possible before a serious test above it.

Sessions
Not so much to add from yesterday evening. Pit session was extraordinary weak, it didn't managed to take out the 23248 (10.12 Wednsday high) only tagging it at the pip and current Tokyo is, for now, correcting the very long inventories made yesterday by Sydney, Tokyo, London and preUS.
We are now in the last 2 periods for Tokyo before London open and price is currently inside yesterday GB session/value. If confirmed around it we could expect initial acceptation of yesterday GB range 22294-2304 and eventually test above and or below it. Note that at the base of yesterday GB we have a gap upside (21977-22294) that could act as support. The main composite points of control (POCs) are at 2293 above, 2250 right below here and 2193 far below.
As written the main weak references are above at 23248 (daily bracket tag) and below at 2135 zone where we have 4 different session lows one close each other.
A very important thing will be the price position at pit open (15:30 +1GMT) if price will be below yesterday pit session low 22837, we could have an island reversal, meaning that yesterday pit session will be separated by current market activity by a gap upside from Monday high and a possible gap downside from yesterday low. If this will happen (and accepted) we could have an important activity downside. If instead price will be above or inside yesterday pit session we could have a continuation upside if the possible test above 23248 will succeed.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,046
  • Oct 19, 2016 2:31am Oct 19, 2016 2:31am
09:30+1GMT

GB opened inside yesterday GB range and is balancing inside it as expected. Tokyo low is at yesterday preUS low 2256, tagging it: it is weak, so carry this info forward. GB period A high is at Tokyo half back 2285, it is weak too.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,047
  • Oct 19, 2016 2:40am Oct 19, 2016 2:40am
Don't be to anxious to trade in such environment: the fact that current GB opened right inside yesterday GB range means that we are in balance with a substancial acceptation of yesterday prices: so this is a situation in which it is better to let the market develop.

If you are so anxious to do something, do like me: create a test account (a ridiculous amount of money in it) or a demo one and play with it as you like. Then wait for a real occasion and place your positions only when really needed in your real account. Consider that generally we have one occasion at least for any session, sometimes even more, like 3 or 4 possible licit trades to do. So wait for them.

I'm saying this from the perspective of a day time frame trader: not for bigger timeframes nor for scalpers obviously.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,048
  • Oct 19, 2016 2:54am Oct 19, 2016 2:54am
09:54 +1GMT
Some information market is providing us:
GB is acting above yesterday GB unchange at 2256. B period is for now inside A period. Value is slightly overlapping higher from yesterday GB value.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,049
  • Edited 3:43am Oct 19, 2016 3:11am | Edited 3:43am
10:11 C period low at half back 2276.

10:12 price is now only one pip below comp. poc at 2293.

10:15 C tagged yesterday pit session unchange at 22954, at the pip

10:18 most of the weak Tokyo liquidation from tonight has been corrected now.

10:20 C high at round 2300/yes pit open, again, at the pip.

10:23 C one pip short of yesterday GB high 2304: very weak.

10:28 first test above yes GB high: a lot of single pips for C period and C tagging yes GB close

10:36 C & B poor high just one single pip above yes close..

10:38 up and down yes GB high...

A question here: who do you think is ruling this price action?

10:43 D tagged Tokyo high 2314, again at the pip...
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,050
  • Edited 4:10am Oct 19, 2016 3:50am | Edited 4:10am
10:50 D, last period for Tokyo is now removing the weak high at 23248

10:52 D tags exactly the preUS session high from 10.11 at 23286

10:54 Now, this is an attempted break out above daily balance: for continuation you want to see accepation above 23248. If not watch out for retracement to the mean.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,051
  • Oct 19, 2016 4:13am Oct 19, 2016 4:13am
11:13 GB session has now a very elongated profile. This move upside started at C period low that at that moment in time was GB half back 2276. We got two minus development at 22877-2296 and 23096-2315
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,052
  • Oct 19, 2016 4:20am Oct 19, 2016 4:20am
Quoting Lock
11:13 GB session has now a very elongated profile. This move upside started at C period low that at that moment in time was GB half back 2276. We got two minus development at 22877-2296 and 23096-2315
11:20 first one is no more.

E low tagged exactly yesterday GB close at 23088
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,053
  • Oct 19, 2016 4:30am Oct 19, 2016 4:30am
11:30 D and E periods closed both above yesterday high, value is higher form yesterday GB value and we are in a one time framing higher mode but the structure below is weak. Conflicting information here.

Note anyhow that for now we do not have acceptation above the daily bracket at 22246.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,054
  • Oct 19, 2016 4:35am Oct 19, 2016 4:35am
11:35 4 letters POC at yesterday GB close. Not a good sign for continuation upside. If you are selling this above the failure at daily bracket high (a more than licit trade considering how this move upside developed) your structural stops are right inside the old GB gap downside (just above E period high).
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,055
  • Oct 19, 2016 4:40am Oct 19, 2016 4:40am
11:40 F period low tagged exactly yesterday GB high (2304)*. Price up and down yesterday GB close. One timeframing higher is no more.

*You want to see acceptation below it for continuation downside. If not back to the top.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,056
  • Oct 19, 2016 4:45am Oct 19, 2016 4:45am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 11:20 first one is no more. E low tagged exactly yesterday GB close at 23088
THe GB close of yesterday (J) was in 2256, why do you say 2308?
  • #1,057
  • Oct 19, 2016 4:50am Oct 19, 2016 4:50am
Price is bouncing up and down from yesterday GB close price and yesterday GB high.
How many people do you think are understanding what price is currently doing right now? This is a clear edge for us.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,058
  • Oct 19, 2016 4:55am Oct 19, 2016 4:55am
Quoting Devart
{quote} THe GB close of yesterday (J) was in 2256, why do you say 2308?
2256 is the unchanged for GB: the last close before preUS open. The GB close price is pit session bar E close price: it's the real forex close for GB.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,059
  • Oct 19, 2016 4:59am Oct 19, 2016 4:59am
Quoting Lock
10:11 C period low at half back 2276. ... A question here: who do you think is ruling this price action? ...
Quoting Lock
10:50 D, last period for Tokyo is now removing the weak high at 23248 10:52 D tags exactly the preUS session high from 10.11 at 23286 10:54 Now, this is an attempted break out above daily balance: for continuation you want to see accepation above 23248. If not watch out for retracement to the mean.
Quoting Lock
11:13 GB session has now a very elongated profile. This move upside started at C period low that at that moment in time was GB half back 2276. We got two minus development at 22877-2296 and 23096-2315
Quoting Lock
11:30 ... Conflicting information here. Note anyhow that for now we do not have acceptation above the daily bracket at 22246.
Quoting Lock
11:35 4 letters POC at yesterday GB close. Not a good sign for continuation upside. If you are selling this above the failure at daily bracket high (a more than licit trade considering how this move upside developed) your structural stops are right inside the old GB gap downside (just above E period high).

Quoting Lock
11:40 F period low tagged exactly yesterday GB high (2304)*. Price up and down yesterday GB close. One timeframing higher is no more. *You want to see acceptation below it for continuation downside. If not back to the top.

11:59 +1GMT
All the weak GB structure made during short covering is no more: for those who sold above the daily bracket failure is a good shot. Isn't it??
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #1,060
  • Oct 19, 2016 5:14am Oct 19, 2016 5:14am
GBP takes a knock on reports in Germany to shut door to back channels on Brexit (explains the drop)
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