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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #139,761
  • Oct 16, 2016 9:05pm Oct 16, 2016 9:05pm
Quoting mbqb11
here was a touch trade short on the sp500 mini Massive previous support and TL. I like these type for touch trades at small risk. Here was just .5% risk. Now can yellen make this one scream lol Original chart from the private forum {image} Current chart with stop {image} have a good weekend everyone
closed this one down now, will re-evaluate at the swing lows or closes back above the 4hr beob for longs
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  • #139,762
  • Oct 17, 2016 3:34am Oct 17, 2016 3:34am
Hi,

What do you think about this setup- it si USD CAD on 4H ? We have nice PB ( in circle) at very strong area, but the problem is, trendline, which was broken to the downside.
It happens to me often that I see setup like this and I can not decide if I should trade or not.
I think in every setup we can find pros and cons- some of them say it is good setup and some say it is bad setup.
Even in Mike last post- S&P 500 on H4 timeframe- he realised nice profit- I see there bullish engulfing or BUOB at 2108- and this level has strenght because of reject from 14. sept ( on the left side of his chart ) + It could be inverted head and shoulders forming ...

Could someone help me with this question- which of signals or patterns or confluence - ( I cant find the right word for it ) should I take into account when I see setup and which I should ignore. I am very confused about this..

Thank you for your help and sorry for my english... have a nice day
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  • #139,763
  • Oct 17, 2016 4:08am Oct 17, 2016 4:08am
Quoting VKTrader
Hi, What do you think about this setup- it si USD CAD on 4H ? We have nice PB ( in circle) at very strong area, but the problem is, trendline, which was broken to the downside. It happens to me often that I see setup like this and I can not decide if I should trade or not. I think in every setup we can find pros and cons- some of them say it is good setup and some say it is bad setup. Even in Mike last post- S&P 500 on H4 timeframe- he realised nice profit- I see there bullish engulfing or BUOB at 2108- and this level has strenght because of reject...
Hi,

Just my view of this chart at the moment.

If you switch to the W1/D1 charts you'll see the most important S/R areas. For example here the 1.30 RN has been a strong support. 1.33 has shown some resistance followed by 2 fake outs. The last one printed a BEOB with confluence with a trendline + a fibo retracement + RSI divergence. The downside of a short trade is the traffic it runs into.
Looking at H4 charts you may find S/R levels and trade off these. Or you can monitor W1 & D1 levels and wait for H4 price action bars to print.
Here my next level would have been 1.3175-ish from the D1 chart, ie right where you would have been trading into.

Confluence is barely a mean for gauging how many traders, trading in different manners, will consider a level: you have people trading TL, others S/R, others Fib retracements / extensions, etc. A cluster of confluence is "stronger" as it is a level at which many traders trading differently will most likely react.

Higher timeframe levels are stronger because a weekly level will be playable on both higher and lower timeframe.

hope this helps
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Slow & steady
  • #139,764
  • Oct 17, 2016 4:57am Oct 17, 2016 4:57am
Quoting patapouer
{quote} Hi, Just my view of this chart at the moment. If you switch to the W1/D1 charts you'll see the most important S/R areas. For example here the 1.30 RN has been a strong support. 1.33 has shown some resistance followed by 2 fake outs. The last one printed a BEOB with confluence with a trendline + a fibo retracement + RSI divergence. The downside of a short trade is the traffic it runs into. Looking at H4 charts you may find S/R levels and trade off these. Or you can monitor W1 & D1 levels and wait for H4 price action bars to print. Here my...
Thank you for your view.
SO I should look for more confluence. If i see setup like this, where different charts show me opposite signals, then the bigger timeframe is right and the smaller is wrong . And when I see opposite signals on one, for example daily timeframe, than I should look for confluence. Signal with more confluence is better , am I right ? But how to identify which confluence is better than other on the same chart ? Ok..you can go up to weekly, but even on weekly we could have opposite signals....for example double bottom- we have first bottom and then market goes up- rejects ressistance and than goes back and formes pinbar at the bottom - second bottom- it seems like double bottom - am I wrong ? If you trade it and make profit you can say- perfect entry ....but when it fails, you try to find the reason why... few days after you can see that pinbar formed at the second bottom fails, because it was again strong bearish move down- strong bearish trend- so you were trading against it and because of this you were wrong...
I try to say that when two traders see the same chart, they can be both right even when one is bullish and other bearish.... you will always find confluence for bearish and bullish point of view...And this is problem i try to solve for myself- to which group I should add to be right more times...
How to identify which confluence is stronger than other on the same chart ?
Thanks for your time
  • #139,765
  • Oct 17, 2016 7:13am Oct 17, 2016 7:13am
HI, MY EU FORECAST FOR TODAY. STAY BLESSED.
Inserted Video
  • #139,766
  • Oct 17, 2016 7:47am Oct 17, 2016 7:47am
Quoting VKTrader
{quote} Thank you for your view. SO I should look for more confluence. If i see setup like this, where different charts show me opposite signals, then the bigger timeframe is right and the smaller is wrong . And when I see opposite signals on one, for example daily timeframe, than I should look for confluence. Signal with more confluence is better , am I right ? But how to identify which confluence is better than other on the same chart ? Ok..you can go up to weekly, but even on weekly we could have opposite signals....for...
hehe

short answer: just go the easiest way.
open a chart, draw a line where support clearly becomes resistance, see whether it aligns with any other factor (trend line, fibo, round number, whatever), identifiy the next level price would have to go through then wait for a PB or outside bar and see the trade developing.

Have a look at Mike's video here if you haven't yet: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...92#post9194092
Slow & steady
  • #139,767
  • Oct 17, 2016 2:38pm Oct 17, 2016 2:38pm
NZDJPY 4H Chart,
Any thoughts on this one ?
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  • #139,768
  • Oct 18, 2016 5:39am Oct 18, 2016 5:39am
Quoting george359
NZDJPY 4H Chart, Any thoughts on this one ? {image}
I think 75 is a great PPZ to watch for a price action
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  • #139,769
  • Oct 18, 2016 6:01am Oct 18, 2016 6:01am
HI, MY EU FORECAST FOR TODAY. STAY BLESSED.
Inserted Video
  • #139,770
  • Oct 18, 2016 6:57am Oct 18, 2016 6:57am
Quoting george359
NZDJPY 4H Chart, Any thoughts on this one ? {image}
Im long from the bottom of the channel (D1) and planing to hold it, however this area definitely have potential for a reaction depending on PA imo, Trendline + S/R and also 38Fib. If I was flat I would definitely be looking for a short. Just my 2cents
thinking outside the box
  • #139,771
  • Oct 18, 2016 6:34pm Oct 18, 2016 6:34pm
thank you both, florinellz and Mercennary for your point. I agree, 75 PPZ it's an interesting area to watch the PA.
  • #139,772
  • Edited 10:46pm Oct 18, 2016 10:19pm | Edited 10:46pm
Hi, I'm new here. Do you base any of your decisions on fundamentals or the news or is it all technical?
  • #139,773
  • Oct 19, 2016 8:58am Oct 19, 2016 8:58am
Quoting jchiogna1
Hi, I'm new here. Do you base any of your decisions on fundamentals or the news or is it all technical?
Hey J

Welcome to the thread

I am about 98% technical and some news i'll be aware of. Interest rates mainly. And more so just about when the news is coming out to be aware of spreads widening. But overall I always think it's easier to let the chart guide your decisions. Nothing wrong with those who want to use fundamentals but you should only use it if you find value added with it.

Best of luck!
Mike
  • #139,774
  • Oct 19, 2016 2:17pm Oct 19, 2016 2:17pm
posted this to my twitter @mbqb11 but really like the beob here closing back into the box area



now I simply apply my dynamic R:R which is too look for price to bounce around the flip to cut risk, or cut out if price chooses not to move lower

obviously, this is just my opinion
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  • #139,775
  • Oct 20, 2016 7:20am Oct 20, 2016 7:20am
Quoting mbqb11
posted this to my twitter @mbqb11 but really like the beob here closing back into the box area now I simply apply my dynamic R:R which is too look for price to bounce around the flip to cut risk, or cut out if price chooses not to move lower obviously, this is just my opinion {image}
for those following along now that we've broken the low I've locked in profit on my first position above the high of the current bar and reduced the majority of risk on the second position

this is what dynamic R:R is in my book
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  • #139,776
  • Oct 21, 2016 4:04am Oct 21, 2016 4:04am
I have a question for some of the senior members (Mike etc). We are taught to take trades with a good bit of space and to avoid traffic/congestion. I can't help notice though that trade setups which occur off big patterns (wedges, trendlines etc) often run into a lot of traffic pretty quickly, but it seems rather unavoidable in these cases.

For example, the recent BEOB on AUDUSD daily closed under the upper trendline of a wedge pattern, so it would be reasonable to suggest a short. I am wondering if in the case of big 'pattern' or 'big story' setups , you can kind of reduce the need for space (since price has a better chance of pushing through traffic?).

Hope this makes sense,

TG.

P.S. just closed the weekly BEOB on USDMXN
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  • #139,777
  • Oct 21, 2016 4:09am Oct 21, 2016 4:09am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} for those following along now that we've broken the low I've locked in profit on my first position above the high of the current bar and reduced the majority of risk on the second position this is what dynamic R:R is in my book {image}
updated stop losses, locked in more profit on position one and breakeven now on the second pullback position. Just seeing how far we can push into that open gap
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  • #139,778
  • Oct 21, 2016 4:19am Oct 21, 2016 4:19am
Quoting TGpop
I have a question for some of the senior members (Mike etc). We are taught to take trades with a good bit of space and to avoid traffic/congestion. I can't help notice though that trade setups which occur off big patterns (wedges, trendlines etc) often run into a lot of traffic pretty quickly, but it seems rather unavoidable in these cases. For example, the recent BEOB on AUDUSD daily closed under the upper trendline of a wedge pattern, so it would be reasonable to suggest a short. I am wondering if in the case of big 'pattern' or 'big story' setups...
Hi TGpop,
When I saw aud/usd BEOB I wanted to post it, but you have made it first. I have asked the same question myself as you have - I try to avoid trading into traffic, but in big patterns often there is no space... So can I trade setups like this or not ? can somebody answer me please ?

Have a nice day
  • #139,779
  • Oct 21, 2016 6:12am Oct 21, 2016 6:12am
Quoting TGpop
I have a question for some of the senior members (Mike etc). We are taught to take trades with a good bit of space and to avoid traffic/congestion. I can't help notice though that trade setups which occur off big patterns (wedges, trendlines etc) often run into a lot of traffic pretty quickly, but it seems rather unavoidable in these cases. For example, the recent BEOB on AUDUSD daily closed under the upper trendline of a wedge pattern, so it would be reasonable to suggest a short. I am wondering if in the case of big 'pattern' or 'big story' setups...
Im not sure if the way I've set up my entry is OK using James Method But I'll post it anyway.
You should be looking for a way to enter that will put the odds in your favor from a initial Risk Reward Perspective, in the case of the AUDUSD there's not enough space down to get at least a 1:1 RR, what I did was set up a sell limit 50% on a retrace of the BEOB, that way I've managed to put myself in great R:R to at least take partial and move 1/2 to BE.
thinking outside the box
  • #139,780
  • Oct 21, 2016 7:33am Oct 21, 2016 7:33am
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} updated stop losses, locked in more profit on position one and breakeven now on the second pullback position. Just seeing how far we can push into that open gap {image}

gone ahead and closed this down now at the lows. Hopefully this helped you guys learn how to manage your trades a bit better

Have a fantastic friday and I promise to come back later and answer some of those questions

Mike
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