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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #941
  • Oct 17, 2016 2:31am Oct 17, 2016 2:31am
Quoting Lock
16 10 17 07:48 +1GMT (edited untill 08:11) EARLY MORNING REPORT Technically this Tokyo action is an attempted breakout downside. Obviously it could fail and come back to the mean at the main composite poc 2193 and up to the opposite side of the balance initially (the Friday high at 2261) and then eventually continue higher taking out the daily highs up to 2373 daily bracket high. Or it could instead succeed taking out the daily lows downside (2132 and 2104), testing the bracket low at 20874 and eventually the "all time" Sydney low at 1978. Some...
I watched the video "Fields in Vision". Nice to see all the things back here (brackets, short in the hole, weak low/high, excess, pit session, poc....etc..etc) and preparing yourself for the possible scenarios before the start of the session.

What you are doing in this thread is I think the following thing =>
Narrative:
the recap of all the work you've done, and, identifying potential trading scenarios

You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #942
  • Oct 17, 2016 2:35am Oct 17, 2016 2:35am
09:35 B high at open.
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  • #943
  • Oct 17, 2016 2:36am Oct 17, 2016 2:36am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} I watched the video "Fields in Vision". Nice to see all the things back here (brackets, short in the hole, weak low/high, excess, pit session, poc....etc..etc) and preparing yourself for the possible scenarios before the start of the session. What you are doing in this thread is I think the following thing => Narrative: the recap of all the work you've done, and, identifying potential trading scenarios
Absolutely correct. It is exactly what I'm trying to do here.
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  • #944
  • Oct 17, 2016 2:39am Oct 17, 2016 2:39am
Quoting Lock
09:35 B high at open.
09:39 Immediately taken out and now weak at half back 2185.
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  • #945
  • Oct 17, 2016 2:54am Oct 17, 2016 2:54am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 09:39 Immediately taken out and now weak at half back 2185.
An important note for new "followers": a weak reference does not mean the need for an automatic and immediate correction of it. It's an information market is providing you that you have to carry forward in order to evaluate the overall condition in which you are operating. A weak reference means generally that weak partecipants are using it in order to perform their activity, buyin or selling. For this reason a weak reference is an indicator about the fact that a certain move could be under the control of those weak partecipants and consequently that this particolar move could be eventually retraced in the future by stronger partecipants.

Anyhow this is only one market information. And in order to act you have to take care of all the information that current market is providing you.
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  • #946
  • Oct 17, 2016 2:59am Oct 17, 2016 2:59am
09:59 As you see B period is testing Friday GB low 2167, aiming at Tokyo low 2151 and Sydney low at 2143.
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  • #947
  • Oct 17, 2016 3:08am Oct 17, 2016 3:08am
Quoting Lock
GB is now balancing around composite POC and testing above Tokyo high: if the test above will fail we could have a new test downside. 09:23 Please note that 21877 is Friday GB close: so current action is also testing it. It is the lowest GB close for October, so it is important to determine the GB intentions. 9:30 A B poor low at 2177
10:08 +1GMT
Testing donwside after the failure above Tokyo high and GB Friday close.
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  • #948
  • Oct 17, 2016 3:42am Oct 17, 2016 3:42am
10:42 D period is the last one for Tokyo and we are now above (only for some pips) 10.13 Tokyo close at 2163. This close is the lowest for Tokyo during October. Price is also up and down GB Friday low at 2167.
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  • #949
  • Oct 17, 2016 3:48am Oct 17, 2016 3:48am
10:48 +1GMT
D high at current half back 21754 as B high is at old half back 2185: Carry these information forward and note the weak environment for now.
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  • #950
  • Oct 17, 2016 3:58am Oct 17, 2016 3:58am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 09:39 Immediately taken out and now weak at half back 2185.
Quoting Lock
10:48 +1GMT D high at current half back 21754 as B high is at old half back 2185: Carry these information forward and note the weak environment for now.
10:58
21754 taken out and 2185 tagged. Now watch out because we have conflicting information: we got acceptation below Friday GB low and we left downside the poor Tokyo low at 2151 unsolved while, at the same time, we are back inside GB session range and close to the main POC 2193 big pole of attraction, and 2185 is not corrected yet .
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  • #951
  • Oct 17, 2016 4:04am Oct 17, 2016 4:04am
E period high again at half back: exactly 21754.
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  • #952
  • Oct 17, 2016 4:31am Oct 17, 2016 4:31am
21754 taken ot but 2185 still in place. Tokyo poor low still in place too at 2151. E period inside bar of D period: possible break form here.
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  • #953
  • Oct 17, 2016 5:27am Oct 17, 2016 5:27am
Huge indecision here and lack of partecipation. Also G is an inside bar, this time of previous F. It spent 7 periods just to test the overnight low(2143 Sydney low) without even reach it.

Note that all the GB profile structure is based (from period B onward) upon the B period high at old half back (2185): so it is a very poor structure going downside.
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  • #954
  • Oct 17, 2016 6:22am Oct 17, 2016 6:22am
Quoting Lock
Huge indecision here and lack of partecipation. Also G is an inside bar, this time of previous F**. It spent 7 periods just to test the overnight low(2143 Sydney low) without even reach it. Note that all the GB profile structure is based (from period B onward) upon the B period high at old half back (2185): so it is a very poor structure going downside.
So eventually it managed to break and it is now testing the overnight low at 2143 (sydney low)

I don't like the way it did it but if it will build a gap downside for preUS and pit session the weakness above could be skipped for a while. Let's see.

**it tested above F and then it went back to the opposite side of G ebentually breaking down below it.
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  • #955
  • Oct 17, 2016 7:04am Oct 17, 2016 7:04am
Quoting Lock
{quote} So eventually it managed to break and it is now testing the overnight low at 2143 (sydney low) I don't like the way it did it but if it will build a gap downside for preUS and pit session the weakness above could be skipped for a while. Let's see. **it tested above F and then it went back to the opposite side of G ebentually breaking down below it.
14:03
PreUS opened with a gap downside from Friday pit session low at 2171. If it will not be retraced quickly (at least before pitUS open at 15:30 +1GMT )we could have continuation downside.
Pit Bracket low at 2088 is a possible initial test in case of continuation.

PS: Watch out: do not forget the weak level at 2200 even if you see continuation downside! Potentially Friday pit session was short in the hole.
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  • #956
  • Edited 7:27am Oct 17, 2016 7:15am | Edited 7:27am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 14:03 PreUS opened with a gap downside from Friday pit session low at 2171. If it will not be retraced quickly (at least before pitUS open at 15:30 +1GMT )we could have continuation downside. Pit Bracket low at 2088 is a possible initial test in case of continuation. PS: Watch out: do not forget the weak level at 2200 even if you see continuation downside! Potentially Friday pit session was short in the hole.
Short in the hole on fridays pit session? I don't see a so called p-shape on Friday sessions? can you maybe explain: "Potentially Friday pit session was short in the hole."
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #957
  • Oct 17, 2016 7:32am Oct 17, 2016 7:32am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Short in the hole on fridays pit session? I don't see a so calles p-shape on Friday sessions? can you maybe explain: "Potentially Friday pit session was short in the hole."
Friday late pit action took place below its value. Those who took part to this action were also starting fro half back/round number at 2200 level: so you have a combination of weak partecipants (those starting from a weak reference) and an action below value. Those shorts consequently could be considered "in the hole". But do not try to make a science of it. Let this market develop and let's see where next pit will open and its partecipants' reaction. If upcoming pit will open with a gap downside we could see acceptation of this new condition and in that case we could see a continuation downside even if the condition above is clearly weak. (And this eventually could lead to major problems for weak leggards piling on this possible continuation.)
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  • #958
  • Oct 17, 2016 7:54am Oct 17, 2016 7:54am
Let me add a thing to the previous consideration: if you consider the composite profile preUS+pitUS from Friday you will see a perfect "b" shape, meaning liquidation. And in fact all the US session during Friday was a liquidation from the top of Tokyo session (2261 tagged at the pip!) So it was clearly a weak move from the start. And the final portion of the pit session only add weakness to the already weak situation.
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  • #959
  • Oct 17, 2016 8:19am Oct 17, 2016 8:19am
15:19 PreUS is tagging right now the Friday pit session low at 2171: no more gap downside for upcoming pit session if it will continue higher.
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  • #960
  • Oct 17, 2016 8:27am Oct 17, 2016 8:27am
Now, if pit session will open inside Friday pit range (2171-2226) we could expect initial acceptation of its range and eventually tests below and/or above it. Note that in any case there is the problem of the Friday pit poor low at 2171 to solve, if it is going to open above it.
Note also that the cluster of lows at 2135 zone is very weak (10.13 21318 GB low + today GB low at 2135 + preUS low at 2137). So if price will continue higher without correcting all this thing there you are going to see short covering, not new money buying.
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