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How to predict markets, Catch the moves at value

  • #1,421
  • Oct 15, 2016 4:47am Oct 15, 2016 4:47am
Quoting Dennis1468
closing the week minus 4 pips at 104 cant be bothered see you guys next week So for today we have modestly + 33.8 + 10 +15 - 1 - 4

I guess thats about 215 Pips for the week on UJ. 860 p/m if same average
  • #1,422
  • Oct 15, 2016 8:21am Oct 15, 2016 8:21am
  •  Hpt
  • Joined Jun 2015 | Status: everybody trade at one`s own risk | 648 Posts
UJ H12

my view with Dennis ext. settings. (use is illustrated by Dennis)
I just took NFP´s (orange rect. + lines)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH12 Ext.png Size: 51 KB


happy trading
from level to level - you need mental strength to reach the summit
  • #1,423
  • Oct 16, 2016 1:26am Oct 16, 2016 1:26am
Quoting Hpt
UJ H12 my view with Dennis ext. settings. (use is illustrated by Dennis) I just took NFPs (orange rect. + lines) {image} happy trading

Excellent Chart. Finger prints left there mark at session close hence 105 is achievable and we are not far from it. Would again expect retracemant back to to be Contained 103 60. The advance is very slow Technically and I believe this is due to negative USA Data.

Caution "Advance has been slow" This may turn out to be a re touch on a spike to 100. Sluggish moves up require extraordinary fuel
  • #1,424
  • Oct 16, 2016 2:02am Oct 16, 2016 2:02am
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} Excellent Chart. Finger prints left there mark at session close hence 105 is achievable and we are not far from it. Would again expect retracemant back to to be Contained 103 60. The advance is very slow Technically and I believe this is due to negative USA Data. Caution "Advance has been slow" This may turn out to be a re touch on a spike to 100. Sluggish moves up require extraordinary fuel
UJ Overview Pre - Market 10/9 Last Week TA - Summary there of

Essentially no net change for the entire month, we are right back at the place it all started between Last months NFP High and Low. This month NFP printed exact duplicate of last month.

The path of least resistance still remains up and buying a break on a gap and fade of NFP resistance Zones is not a bad idea. Any move down that does not break 102 80 102 50 area can be considered strong bullish sentiment. If we do not break down further then the aforementioned then we must consider a break of NFP High to be a run for the money at 105 Short term.

Take note: A death Cross has developed and UJ trades above it.

Bulls looking to re-establish acceptance above 102 80 which seems that they have. Will watch this area closely on Monday open

Take note there has been no bearish sentiment for the past 2 weeks, BUT WE COULD JUST HAVE MORE OF THE SAME RANGE

So the above was last weeks technical Analysis . we got the low right 102 80 and the high well again a short full as we were just left with fingers at 104 30. If we switch up to lower time frame charts there is some resistance in this area. Will look into that more deeply when we do our TA for Week 10/17............Will post tonight
  • #1,425
  • Edited 8:50am Oct 16, 2016 6:21am | Edited 8:50am
UJ Overview Pre - Market 10 /17

Failed Range Expansion

Last week failed to advance any range expansion however price was not dramatically rejected.

This can only lead us to conclude only 2 scenarios:

Bull:
Price could be headed for a break out to 105 plus this can only be confirmed as long at the lower value continues to be defended at 102 80.
For a trade plan buying at 103.20 and 102 80 are good value for attempting a push to 105. Any break below 102 80 would be considered failure for Bulls.

Bear:
A failed range expansion is one of the best true indicators of an upcoming reversal in price, so it pays to pay attention to this very telling market tendency.
Taking a look at the daily time frame of UJ, you’ll notice a key range developed in the month and price has not gained significant acceptance above 104 for a shot at further range expansion to 105. However, after price held above the 104 on 3 attempts bulls failed to get paid and instead were forced to liquidate positions, which triggered the recent selling pressure into the center of the key range at 102 80 104. We would look for bearish Continuation at a break of 102 80

Edit in the 3rd chart below should read last line of defense for bears not bulls
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_USD_JPY_30 Mins_snapshot.png Size: 98 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ddChart_USD_JPY_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 53 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: dddChart_USD_JPY_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: keyChart_USD_JPY_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 77 KB
  • #1,426
  • Oct 16, 2016 7:12am Oct 16, 2016 7:12am
Quoting Dennis1468
closing the week minus 4 pips at 104 cant be bothered see you guys next week So for today we have modestly + 33.8 + 10 +15 - 1 - 4

As per the TA above last week "Cant be bothered holding any longer" Thats sentiment many Bulls will have acted on by liquidating there positions 104 104 30. Above 102 80 is key if we are to remain Bullish
  • #1,427
  • Oct 16, 2016 7:37am Oct 16, 2016 7:37am
bull forecast - BLACK LINE - DAILY CHART UJ MEDIUM TERM BEYOND 105 (IF WE BRAKE THE KEY RANGE)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: keyChart_USD_JPY_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 80 KB
  • #1,428
  • Oct 16, 2016 8:45am Oct 16, 2016 8:45am
Quoting Hpt
UJ H12 my view with Dennis ext. settings. (use is illustrated by Dennis) I just took NFPs (orange rect. + lines) {image} happy trading

your extensions are spot on, thats exactly how i do it
  • #1,429
  • Oct 16, 2016 11:16am Oct 16, 2016 11:16am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TooSlow1.png Size: 65 KB


Are the BEARS done?
Are the BULLS ready to take over?
Is the match still undecided?
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #1,430
  • Edited 12:42pm Oct 16, 2016 11:44am | Edited 12:42pm
Quoting TooSlow
{image} Are the BEARS done? Are the BULLS ready to take over? Is the match still undecided?
yes exact print of UJ

EJ contained with its channel daily, UJ penetrated its daily channel.

The path of least resistance this week is not as clear as the past months was very clear buy 100 buy 100 50 buy 100 80 buy 102 80 buy 103 buy 103 80.
But we just did not brake out above 104 30.

I am bullish but not as much, liquidated positions all those trades as above. Would have been far better to of hedged them all instead of taking profit then we can still be dominating from 100. However, we are still in range and from here if we reach 105 we will hedge. Its the beginning of a new cycle from down to up/lacking expansion. Goal is to hold best price up to February. Together we will win we always do. "It will become apparent in February- wait to February, have i ever been wrong, well yes but not often and never in Feb"

102 80 the water mark! We stay on top - Bull Target assured.
  • #1,431
  • Oct 16, 2016 12:12pm Oct 16, 2016 12:12pm
"The Good, the Bad, the Ugly" From K mars
The good
Risky assets still fueled/drugged by central banks
Oil export countries seems to be [finally] agreeing on production and price stability
Market talk that ECB might step into buying European equities = tailwind for EU markets
Even though its not very impressive, global economic expansion remains steady ()
A lot of cash is sitting on the sidelines = ready to be deployed in stocks?
Great rotation from bonds to equities might start soon or might have already started
US recession fears unclear following latest PMI/ISM [better] reports
Eurozone : latest economic data was encouraging
China : latest economic data suggests stabilization
FED: every time the FED is close to hiking, markets drop postponing decision
UK : stronger economic data fueled by weaker GBP
EUR: the weakening currency is having positive effects on European exporters
Corporate activity : good M&A activity + share buybacks
The bad
Upside risk for [US] rates. Will the other central banks follow? Historically they did, this time ()
Asymmetric risk for US stocks (upside-potential limited, downside-potential important)
US: S&P500 technical picture (rounding top) suggests caution. 2120 = strong support
Rising USD could have negative effects on US corporates
Uncertainties surrounding BREXIT impact on UK/EU
Uncertainties surrounding Italian constitutional referendum
Chinese desperate need to invest abroad (creating real estate bubbles) and weakening CNY
Australian + Canadian housing bubble fueled by the Chinese
Central bankers incapacity to restore moderate growth in developed countries
The ugly
US elections pathetic drama
Ongoing and rising tensions between Russia and western powers
BoJ hazardous monetary policy trying to fight a complex problem >> aging of the population
Central banks accommodative monetary policys exit strategy nightmare
Rising income inequality leading to social unrests
Tech bubble 2.0 lead by social media fantasy
Global rising debts leading to concerns about the value of Fiat [not the car maker] money
Fixed income bubble
EU-US tax/economic war tax my Apple and I will destroy your [German] banks
  • #1,432
  • Oct 16, 2016 12:27pm Oct 16, 2016 12:27pm
The (Dollar) Straw That Breaks The Camel's Back Of Political Correctness Submitted by Eugen von Bohn-Bawerk


USD INDX
The USD is coincidentally perfectly positioned for a breakout from an increasingly narrow channel. Last year, in November of 2015 it broke out from a similar channel on back of rational asset allocation based on the upcoming Federal Reserve rate hike in December of that year. Further four hikes were communicated in 2016, but so far none as materialized. The USD thus fell back into a new channel. This time it will be pushed up, not from rational expectations of more favorable yield differentials, but from fear as dollar scarcity increases. The Fed may or may not raise rate in December, we do not care much as the US is heading straight into recession (as we have warned here several times) and that is when the stampede will begin in earnest.

A massively overleveraged financial system is once again on the brink. All it take is a second leg higher in the USD and European banking is dead in the water with monstrosities like Deutsche Bank being one of the most interconnected institutions on the planet. Knock-on effects on the global economy will be severe as dollar funding dries up. The USD SWAP line between ECB and the Federal Reserve will quickly reach a trillion dollars and the newly elected US Congress will throw hissy-fits as they are essentially asked to bail out the international Eurodollar market.

Losing life savings as deposits are bailed in left and right will be the straw that bring down any pretense of political correctness.
  • #1,433
  • Oct 16, 2016 12:47pm Oct 16, 2016 12:47pm
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} 1.6922. Close at 16900 buy on pull back from 16900 at 16 850 close at 16950 1.7084 close at 16950 leave short cover if your over leveraged at 16 440 Dont fiddle...................let market work for you.. Remind me to check in with you on this so i can re evaluate. This may take time you need patience. We wide out to work correlation will add that later not yet..............WE WANT TO SEE A SMASH BACK TO 1 6000 SO THAT WE ARE CERTAIN OF THE FADE IS FILLED THE GAP
I hope you did what I said? Leave short cover if your over leveraged at 16 440 - did you?

Quoting ayoayo dude? hope you did. Contact me here will get you sorted we are due to un lock
  • #1,434
  • Oct 16, 2016 12:53pm Oct 16, 2016 12:53pm
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} Definitely uncharted thats why i stayed out of G...................looks like BOE wants the G so low that there exports burn europe........it could be 1 for 1 A lot of Brokers will go bankrupt on this one, all the way down massive paper sellers

then we got 1 for 1
  • #1,435
  • Oct 16, 2016 3:32pm Oct 16, 2016 3:32pm
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} I hope you did what I said? Leave short cover if your over leveraged at 16 440 - did you? Quoting ayoayo dude? hope you did. Contact me here will get you sorted we are due to un lock
Yes. The order was not filled and there was margin call. Anyway that is in the past now. If its not asking for too much, I have a eurusd trade that I will appreciate if you can assist in managing.
I have 4 long positions at:
1.10787
1.10626
1.10558
1.10473

Am just reading the aspect of the thread (lesson 2) that deals with how to manage trades. I believe that a hands on management of the above trade will give a lot of mileage in understanding the topic.
Your assistance as usual will be very appreciated please.
Thanks and best regards
  • #1,436
  • Oct 17, 2016 1:10am Oct 17, 2016 1:10am
Quoting ayoayo
{quote} Yes. The order was not filled and there was margin call. Anyway that is in the past now. If its not asking for too much, I have a eurusd trade that I will appreciate if you can assist in managing. I have 4 long positions at: 1.10787 1.10626 1.10558 1.10473 Am just reading the aspect of the thread (lesson 2) that deals with how to manage trades. I believe that a hands on management of the above trade will give a lot of mileage in understanding the topic. Your assistance as usual will be very appreciated please. Thanks and best regards

Ok we will take a look. The first thing you must remember we are living at a time of Dollar Strength. Euro is still in its cycle from 1.4 down. however we are trading in range for weeks similar to yen. Note the 4 hour chart below. This type of Coiling should be faded on edges with stops. What happens to Euro now is entirely based on the dollar Strength. The Fed with rate hikes on the cards makes being long on EU a potential problem. Best thing you can do now is fade shorts on the edges to build money back into the account. You can try small longs with stops outside the lower edge to to buy back. I would definitely leave a sell order to hedge all outside the lower blue line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_4 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 44 KB
  • #1,437
  • Oct 17, 2016 3:48am Oct 17, 2016 3:48am
  •  Hpt
  • Joined Jun 2015 | Status: everybody trade at one`s own risk | 648 Posts
EJ D1

my big picture, see the abc pattern and the resulting levels

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYDaily overview.png Size: 86 KB


see the big mastercandle ,where it starts and stops.
Why I took this points ? A - is clear the top , B - is the and of the waterfall, C - is the next significant Top after NFP , look where NFP is.
And from this areas you have the start of the fork

happy trading
from level to level - you need mental strength to reach the summit
  • #1,438
  • Oct 17, 2016 8:36am Oct 17, 2016 8:36am
Quoting Dennis1468
{quote} I should be able to get from my friend some mt4 indis.................I will ask
Thank you Dennis. Any luck with your friend so far?
  • #1,439
  • Oct 17, 2016 8:55am Oct 17, 2016 8:55am
Quoting ayoayo
{quote} Thank you Dennis. Any luck with your friend so far?
ah for got I better message him
  • #1,440
  • Oct 17, 2016 8:58am Oct 17, 2016 8:58am
Quoting Hpt
EJ D1 my big picture, see the abc pattern and the resulting levels {image} see the big mastercandle ,where it starts and stops. Why I took this points ? A - is clear the top , B - is the and of the waterfall, C - is the next significant Top after NFP , look where NFP is. And from this areas you have the start of the fork happy trading

Yes thats really good charting sell at the 115 or buy up to it.
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