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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #921
  • Oct 14, 2016 8:02am Oct 14, 2016 8:02am
Quoting Lock
GB session is in one timeframing higher mode from B period low. Current H period is inside bar of G and generally I and J periods (the last 2 for GB) are spent to make tests. So a spike could occur from here. Tokyo high is poor at 2261. If the spike will fail, as repeated many times, it will go back to the mean at the composite poc and eventually down to the poor lows. For now all what you have seen is a correction of the overnight inventories too short.
Back to the mean, exactly at the composite POC 2193.
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  • #922
  • Oct 14, 2016 8:10am Oct 14, 2016 8:10am
B and C preUS periods closed both inside yesterday pit lower distribution range (21848-22326) So we got acceptation of it.
The tag of overnight is very very weak anyhow, so we have conflicting information (as normal in days like this one)

To skip that weakness above we need something more downside, as a gap for upcoming pit session, for instance.
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  • #923
  • Oct 14, 2016 8:20am Oct 14, 2016 8:20am
15:20 C period high at preUS half back 2224. 10 minutes to go for pit session.

As a recap: weak above up to 2261, weak below down to 21803.
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  • #924
  • Oct 14, 2016 8:32am Oct 14, 2016 8:32am
15:32
Pit session opened inside yesterday range/value and inside the lower distribution (21848-22326)**: We got 2 back to back poor lows below 2185 and 21804 and 2 weak references made by preUS above 2224 and 2261.

Note that today pit open is exactly at yesterday preUS open 2213: nothing changed from yesterday is the information it provided to us.

**remember that the upper one is at 2238-22645
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  • #925
  • Oct 14, 2016 9:06am Oct 14, 2016 9:06am
Just to let anyone appreciate the complexity (and also the simplicity if you like) of current situation:

The following chart is a normal daily bar chart. As you see we are in a very narrow balance where, as written this morning, Today is inside yesterday that is inside Wednsday that is inside Tuesday. Only a breakout above or below yesterday (2132-2272) could lead to something significant: a real breakout or a reverse to the opposite side of the balance...
Attached Image
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  • #926
  • Oct 14, 2016 9:13am Oct 14, 2016 9:13am
Please note that current pit session low is again poor low 21978, the third in a row above 2185 and 21804.

Whatever will happen above without correcting this situation will be very probably retraced. (if not I do not remember a similar case in any market in the last years)

And in the meanwhile B period tagged the preUS period C weak high (at preUS half back) so... There is nobody here for now but weak hands.
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  • #927
  • Oct 14, 2016 9:49am Oct 14, 2016 9:49am
Quoting Lock
Please note that current pit session low is again poor low 21978, the third in a row above 2185 and 21804. Whatever will happen above without correcting this situation will be very probably retraced. (if not I do not remember a similar case in any market in the last years) And in the meanwhile B period tagged the preUS period C weak high (at preUS half back) so... There is nobody here for now but weak hands.

preUS C period weak high corrected by current C: it could be a valid short term sell. Still having in mind the weak high at Tokyo high tag. Now let's see if it is able to remove some poor low downside...
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  • #928
  • Oct 14, 2016 9:53am Oct 14, 2016 9:53am
Quoting Lock
{quote} preUS C period weak high corrected by current C: it could be a valid short term sell. Still having in mind the weak high at Tokyo high tag. Now let's see if it is able to remove some poor low downside...

In this case the structural stop is right above C high 2226 (some pips above it): even if this short could be not so strong at least the risk is little and the stop is structural.
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  • #929
  • Oct 14, 2016 9:55am Oct 14, 2016 9:55am
A B poor low taken out. Now for continuation you want to see acceptation below it asap. If not watch out for your stop above (if you are in this short)
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  • #930
  • Oct 14, 2016 9:59am Oct 14, 2016 9:59am
Quoting Lock
{quote} In this case the structural stop is right above C high 2226 (some pips above it): even if this short could be not so strong at least the risk is little and the stop is structural.
I mean like this, when C took out the preUS C high at preUS halfback and there is no follow through above it, open your short and put the stop right above it:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 71 KB
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  • #931
  • Oct 14, 2016 10:03am Oct 14, 2016 10:03am
17:02 Note that C low tagged yesterday poor low at 21846 so it is now weak (as current session) and poor componing current session with yesterday one. In any case you may scale out some, because this is your first target. Isn't it considering where you come from?
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  • #932
  • Oct 14, 2016 10:16am Oct 14, 2016 10:16am
Quoting Lock
Please note that current pit session low is again poor low 21978, the third in a row above 2185 and 21804. Whatever will happen above without correcting this situation will be very probably retraced. (if not I do not remember a similar case in any market in the last years) And in the meanwhile B period tagged the preUS period C weak high (at preUS half back) so... There is nobody here for now but weak hands.
Today poor low and yesterday poor low taken out. Wednsday poor low only tagged for now:
scale out some more if you like, this was the second target downside. Note that now the last poor low is extrordinary weak but we are close to news and we came from a very suspect Tokyo high tag..
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  • #933
  • Oct 14, 2016 10:27am Oct 14, 2016 10:27am
Please, if you are really interested in what I'm writing in this thread, do me a favour: when the day will be over, read again all the posts from today early morning report. Maybe today has not been very exciting but its content in term of learning material is, in my opinion, pretty significant.
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  • #934
  • Oct 14, 2016 10:40am Oct 14, 2016 10:40am
Ok, all the poor lows have been taken out now, third and "last" target reached: 21978, 2185 and 21804 are no more poor lows.
So this forcing action was aimed to remove weak stops below them, now if there is something more you want to see acceptation below it (21804). If not, you know where we came from. BTW I strongly suggest to scale out some more here. If you will see continuation during next periods you could add some more in a second time (only a suggestion! Don't hate me if it will fall immediately for 1000 pips!)
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  • #935
  • Oct 14, 2016 10:52am Oct 14, 2016 10:52am
I'm off. I forgot an appointment. See you later.
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  • #936
  • Oct 14, 2016 10:52am Oct 14, 2016 10:52am
Quoting Lock
Please, if you are really interested in what I'm writing in this thread, do me a favour: when the day will be over, read again all the posts from today early morning report. Maybe today has not been very exciting but its content in term of learning material is, in my opinion, pretty significant.

He is very skilled and good to explain every reason behind his decision !!!
  • #937
  • Oct 14, 2016 1:40pm Oct 14, 2016 1:40pm
Quoting Lock
Ok, all the poor lows have been taken out now, third and "last" target reached: 21978, 2185 and 21804 are no more poor lows. So this forcing action was aimed to remove weak stops below them, now if there is something more you want to see acceptation below it (21804). If not, you know where we came from. BTW I strongly suggest to scale out some more here. If you will see continuation during next periods you could add some more in a second time (only a suggestion! Don't hate me if it will fall immediately for 1000 pips!)

Well, I didn't see anything interesting in this price action: value is overlapping to lower from yesterday, so a continuation downside is possible, but I do not like the preUS tag of Tokyo high at 2261 and we are very close to the big composite POC at 2193. Furthermore it's Friday evening: for these reasons I'm off for this week. Have a nice holiday and a good continuation. Best L.


PS: J and K period highs are at current half back/ round 2200: if it will break downside from here without correcting them, watch out!

PPS:
Quoting Devart
{quote} He is very skilled and good to explain every reason behind his decision !!!
Thank you as always for your compliments, you're welcome!
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  • #938
  • Edited 1:12am Oct 17, 2016 12:49am | Edited 1:12am
16 10 17 07:48 +1GMT (edited untill 08:11)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Technically this Tokyo action is an attempted breakout downside. Obviously it could fail and come back to the mean at the main composite poc 2193 and up to the opposite side of the balance initially (the Friday high at 2261) and then eventually continue higher taking out the daily highs up to 2373 daily bracket high.
Or it could instead succeed taking out the daily lows downside (2132 and 2104), testing the bracket low at 20874 and eventually the "all time" Sydney low at 1978.

Some note about Friday pit session is needed anyhow: as you probably remember the level 2200 is weak as it has been tagged by 2 periods high when it also was the half back of the session.
At the same time the session left a poor low at 2171 and we are only some pips below it right now. So friday technically closed short in the hole because the last price action took place below value and below the session poc starting from a weak reference and at the same time the pit auction is not over downside.
All this considerations lead me to think that the upcoming pit session could eventually solve the current issue.
The alternative is only a gap downside built by GB and preUS able to skip, in that case, the weaknesses above at least for some time. So, let's see.
First of all if Tokyo will close below Friday GB low (2167) making a gap downside for upcoming GB session and this gap will be preserved, we could experience continuation downside. If instead Tokyo will close inside Friday GB session range (2167-2255) we could expect initial acceptation of that range and eventually tests above and/or below it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image3.png Size: 62 KB
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  • #939
  • Edited 2:13am Oct 17, 2016 1:59am | Edited 2:13am
08:59
So Tokyo failed below balance (Friday low) and is now back to the mean at composite POC 2193. Leaving below a poor low at 2151. (that is also weak being only 1 pip above round 2150)

GB is going to open inside GB friday range.
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  • #940
  • Oct 17, 2016 2:14am Oct 17, 2016 2:14am
GB is now balancing around composite POC and testing above Tokyo high: if the test above will fail we could have a new test donside.

09:23 Please note that 21877 is Friday GB close: so current action is also testing it. It is the lowest GB close for October, so it is important to determine the GB intentions.

9:30 A B poor low at 2177
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