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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,221
  • Oct 14, 2016 9:23am Oct 14, 2016 9:23am
i think e/u is getting range bound ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,222
  • Oct 14, 2016 9:34am Oct 14, 2016 9:34am
Quoting sisse
Big flop.... and that will pretty much kill the day with Yellen on the top of the hour ... sisse
Wouldn't this decrease the odds of a december hike? FED members are very divided about the issue. People are all very sure about a hike in december though (a little too sure imho). Reminds me of all the gamblers who were so sure brexit wouldn't happen, although the odds were divided, yet it happened.

I think I'll stay on the sidelines on the issue in december, unless there are heavy indications a hike is unavoidable.
  • #144,223
  • Oct 14, 2016 9:49am Oct 14, 2016 9:49am
Not expecting anything until next week .... E/u ... Expecting weekly close in the range between 1.098x and 1.105x ... ...
Close : 1.1020xÂ
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,224
  • Oct 14, 2016 9:49am Oct 14, 2016 9:49am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Wouldn't this decrease the odds of a december hike? FED members are very divided about the issue. People are all very sure about a hike in december though (a little too sure imho). Reminds me of all the gamblers who were so sure brexit wouldn't happen, although the odds were divided, yet it happened. I think I'll stay on the sidelines on the issue in december, unless there are heavy indications a hike is unavoidable.
Not in a million years ! we're talking about a survey conducted by one university gathering info from about 500 person via phone .

What Sisse was pointing is that this flop could intervene with the daily flow , nothing more .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #144,225
  • Oct 14, 2016 10:05am Oct 14, 2016 10:05am
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Wouldn't this decrease the odds of a december hike? FED members are very divided about the issue. People are all very sure about a hike in december though (a little too sure imho). Reminds me of all the gamblers who were so sure brexit wouldn't happen, although the odds were divided, yet it happened. I think I'll stay on the sidelines on the issue in december, unless there are heavy indications a hike is unavoidable.
We've been waiting for a second hike for a year and were even expecting two this year. A 25bp hike will be everything but exceptionnal ! Nothing hawkish !
And yes there are heavy indications !
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  • #144,226
  • Oct 14, 2016 10:20am Oct 14, 2016 10:20am
...and that was it for the European session. Europe going home with more noise from the UK government selecting a very close and rather very ill prepared bunch of talking heads in charge of the EU negotiations....

We are heading for a hard brexit as for this week as May is going 'all in' ignoring warnings from all fronts including markets, without including anybody in the table for discussion and against all recommended advice to be careful and inclusive ..... There will be blood !!!!

Yellen to close the week ...

sisse


Quoting ExForX
{quote} Wouldn't this decrease the odds of a december hike? FED members are very divided about the issue. People are all very sure about a hike in december though (a little too sure imho). Reminds me of all the gamblers who were so sure brexit wouldn't happen, although the odds were divided, yet it happened. I think I'll stay on the sidelines on the issue in december, unless there are heavy indications a hike is unavoidable.
First read @hoom ...he got it right.

Second, I don't think the FED member are divided at all. There is pretty much a consensus on rates coming the only thing they are pushing is a 60 days window of when.

Third, we are already way underway trading the next hike what is more interesting is that the expectations for next year are jumping high very fast.

Fourth, this is nothing to do with Brexit polls. One is elections counting votes, this is pretty much a fact backed up by macro and monetary forces. Again nobody is really discussing if hikes but when in within the next 90 days will happen the next one ....
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,227
  • Oct 14, 2016 10:52am Oct 14, 2016 10:52am
I suspect the ugly consumer info is due in large to the Presidential elections. Will be interesting to see the immediate report after a president gets elected...and whether or not a trend develops from there.
  • #144,228
  • Oct 14, 2016 12:40pm Oct 14, 2016 12:40pm
An academic Yellen. Nothing to see. Expecting FX dollar related markets to complete legs before ECB...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,229
  • Oct 14, 2016 12:41pm Oct 14, 2016 12:41pm
it was not a research ... after reading half it seems to me as a macroeconomic lecture given by some professor in a post-graduate seminar...
Re-Incarnated
  • #144,230
  • Oct 14, 2016 1:09pm Oct 14, 2016 1:09pm
Quoting sisse
...Third, we are already way underway trading the next hike what is more interesting is that the expectations for next year are jumping high very fast. ....
if the Fed really wanted to show they were data driven and no whores to the Stablishment, they would pop a 25 bp hike at the FOMC meet right before the elections. Yeah, right... More likely of course is the Santa rally breaking loose (US equities) right after 11/08 and then cherry on top Dec hike. Afterwards reaction similar to last year but we'll see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144,231
  • Oct 14, 2016 2:18pm Oct 14, 2016 2:18pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}if the Fed really wanted to show they were data driven and no whores to the Stablishment, they would pop a 25 bp hike at the FOMC meet right before the elections. Yeah, right... More likely of course is the Santa rally breaking loose (US equities) right after 11/08 and then cherry on top Dec hike. Afterwards reaction similar to last year but we'll see....
They won't rock the boat. FED is setting us for rate by default and playing the looooong expectations for 3 hikes or whatever next year.

Basically expected lots of talk about next year and very little for the DEC one until is done and the unaware and average Joe investor just realised that it missed the play...

sisse.
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,232
  • Oct 14, 2016 3:14pm Oct 14, 2016 3:14pm
...and target 1.097x tested....well done all shorts on iteration 20 ...

Quoting sisse
+++++ OPENING TABLE for Iteration 20D +++++ Currently

++++ TABLE for Iteration 20D +++++

Currently Euro trading @ 1.100x

" "Survival of the fittest | Winners take all""

Q20D: ONLY.
--> How would you trade the next leg?

-> LMT BUY 1.1020x -> TP1 => 1.107x -> TP2 1.116x | STP > 1.094x

Earleone

Pharm0r

-> LMT SELL 1.1020x -> TP1 => 1.097x [check] -> TP2 1.088x | STP > 1.110x

Fadhl

nutts

primejarvis

goosebone

CommercialB

Grinsakh

clayjay

hoom

Vorex

RoelsMajor

ptoftangency

NorthTrader

mayafx


.... somebody owes me a beer...details later

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,233
  • Oct 14, 2016 3:20pm Oct 14, 2016 3:20pm


I thought the beer was after the iteration on whether longs were stopped out or not? That's what I'm playing...actually down to the 1.08xx handle. BUT

Excellent call on the candle, i was wrong ...now tell us how you did it. I notice you've waited to explain your "roll call" again....

Also what beer do you want? You strike me as the type to drink Stella Artois hehe
  • #144,234
  • Oct 14, 2016 3:24pm Oct 14, 2016 3:24pm
I owe you a few for sure. Since I am eliminated from playing, I def can get the drinks for everyone! I can be the beer bitch. Lol.

We are closing under .0978; but, this time there is a lot more certainty in it for the mid and long term play due to FA.
  • #144,235
  • Oct 14, 2016 3:44pm Oct 14, 2016 3:44pm
All this talk about beer... I'll have one myself. It was a good, straightforward week, now let's enjoy the weekend.
  • #144,236
  • Oct 14, 2016 3:47pm Oct 14, 2016 3:47pm
Quoting Pharm0r
You strike me as the type to drink Stella Artois
Was thinking Grøn Tuborg.
  • #144,237
  • Oct 14, 2016 3:49pm Oct 14, 2016 3:49pm
Quoting ExForX
All this talk about beer... I'll have one myself. It was a good, straightforward week, now let's enjoy the weekend.
Hear hear. Nobody owes me a beer but im drinking one anyway.
  • #144,238
  • Oct 14, 2016 5:05pm Oct 14, 2016 5:05pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Hear hear. Nobody owes me a beer but im drinking one anyway.
Well I owe myself one. Let's keep it at that. Heheh.
  • #144,239
  • Edited 5:39pm Oct 14, 2016 5:16pm | Edited 5:39pm
I am quite sure it has to do with the close and low ( wick ) on weekly and monthly . We was retesting low of August as resistance on the roll yesterday ( Actually a golden level ) . If I am completely of track I will have debt 2 beers for Sisse.

Well done to all that took the short .
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #144,240
  • Oct 14, 2016 6:16pm Oct 14, 2016 6:16pm
Quoting Earleone
I am quite sure it has to do with the close and low ( wick ) on weekly and monthly . We was retesting low of August as resistance on the roll yesterday ( Actually a golden level ) . If I am completely of track I will have debt 2 beers for Sisse. Well done to all that took the short . {image} {image}
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