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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #901
  • Oct 14, 2016 4:44am Oct 14, 2016 4:44am
Quoting Lock
Now it failed once above D period high and left a maybe a too big selling tale above. So let's see if it want to retest above yes GB high and eventually remove some of those pips. In any case, if the failure will be confirmed the natural target is at the opposite side of D balance. Note also that F low tagged again price open...
It made it... What can I say? Today GB session is a textbook for day time frame traders.
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  • #902
  • Oct 14, 2016 4:55am Oct 14, 2016 4:55am
Quoting Lock
Now it failed once above D period high and left a maybe a too big selling tale above. So let's see if it want to retest above yes GB high and eventually remove some of those pips. In any case, if the failure will be confirmed the natural target is at the opposite side of D balance. Note also that F low tagged again price open...
Hi Lock,
I have different MarketProfile tools here....but I really can't see which D periode you mean. Please, can you add a screenshot for this time. Then I maybe can sync with your screens. That would be very helpfull for my understanding.

Thanks
You can manage risk, but you can't manage the return
  • #903
  • Oct 14, 2016 5:00am Oct 14, 2016 5:00am
with craney been done for the day and gbp above 1.22 it has a bullish flavour to it now
  • #904
  • Oct 14, 2016 5:01am Oct 14, 2016 5:01am
F inside bar of E. E, F, D, and C lows all weak. If it will attempt a break above F, watch out. If below it, you know where is probably going. Also note that both E and F periods closed below yesterday GB session high: so for now we have a clear rejection upside.
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  • #905
  • Oct 14, 2016 5:06am Oct 14, 2016 5:06am
Quoting Lock
F inside bar of E. E, F, D, and C lows all weak. If it will attempt a break above F, watch out. If below it, you know where is probably going. Also note that both E and F periods closed below yesterday GB session high: so for now we have a clear rejection upside.
are you sure?? we have a upside risk today
  • #906
  • Oct 14, 2016 5:09am Oct 14, 2016 5:09am
Quoting HappyMe
{quote} Hi Lock, I have different MarketProfile tools here....but I really can't see which D periode you mean. Please, can you add a screenshot for this time. Then I maybe can sync with your screens. That would be very helpfull for my understanding. Thanks
Watch at page 1 of this thread for the tool I'm using. If not consider the following times (+1 GMT) for profile sessions:
02:00 Tokyo open, closed at 09:00
09:00 GB open, closed at 14:00 (14:00 is also GB unchanged)
14:00 PreUS open, closed at 15:30
15:30 Pit US open, closed at 23:00 (23:00 is also pit unchanged)
23:00 Sydney open, closed at 02:00

The inside real session closes are: for Tokyo 11:00, for GB 18:00
Best L.
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  • #907
  • Edited 5:22am Oct 14, 2016 5:12am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} are you sure?? we have a upside risk today

Well, I try to not go against odds, but I'm never sure of anything but taxes and death. The thing I know is that we are watching short covering for now and that we have a lot of weaknesses below. This does not mean at all it cannot last, it means it is weak downside. Now, the real change upside could be a gap higher for upcoming pit session (above 22724): in this particular case, as written this morning**, we could skip the poor lows at least for some time. Let's see.

**From one of the early morning posts:

Quoting Lock
{quote} ... **other possibilities (not so probable for me) are: remaining in balance above those poor lows leaving the correction to next week or make a very big move upside with a gap above yesterday pit session high: in this last case if the gap will resist we could skip those poor lows at least for some time.
But I continue to consider this not so probable. Sometime short covering could be very impressive but unless something change it is old business and not new money buying.
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  • #908
  • Oct 14, 2016 5:23am Oct 14, 2016 5:23am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Well, I try to not go against odds, but I'm never sure of anything but taxes and death. The thing I know is that we are watching short covering for now and that we have a lot of weaknesses below. This does not mean at all it cannot last, it means it is weak downside. Now, the real change upside could be a gap higher for upcoming pit session (above 22724): in this particular case, as written this morning**, we could skip the poor lows at least for some time. Let's see. **From one of the early morning posts: {quote} But I continue to consider...
In the case the pit session will open above 2272 and the IB will not overcome down 2272 what will your TP ?
  • #909
  • Oct 14, 2016 5:35am Oct 14, 2016 5:35am
Quoting Devart
{quote} In the case the pit session will open above 2272 and the IB will not overcome down 2272 what will your TP ?
Not a precise one. I generally have some levels to consider and I scale out any time price reaches one of them. So, on the very long distance all what is above today is weak up to last week monday high, or at least up to the triple pass pit gap high around 2900 level (a huge distance as you see). On a smaller scale, the current bracket top around 2400/2450** (just at the pit session gap down base from 10.06). Far below that we have a first resistance made by the 10.10 pit gap down around 2313.

Generally anyhow I try to consider the market during a progression upside and downside with a lot of parameters that could change my plans on the spot. For instance: tempo, weaknesses left behind, etc.

**Forget it: structurally a natural taget in the case of strong correction from here is at the composite poc at 24327.
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  • #910
  • Oct 14, 2016 5:50am Oct 14, 2016 5:50am
GB session is in one timeframing higher mode from B period low. Current H period is inside bar of G and generally I and J periods (the last 2 for GB) are spent to make tests. So a spike could occur from here. Tokyo high is poor at 2261. If the spike will fail, as repeated many times, it will go back to the mean at the composite poc and eventually down to the poor lows. For now all what you have seen is a correction of the overnight inventories too short.
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  • #911
  • Oct 14, 2016 6:25am Oct 14, 2016 6:25am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Not a precise one. I generally have some levels to consider and I scale out any time price reaches one of them. So, on the very long distance all what is above today is weak up to last week monday high, or at least up to the triple pass pit gap high around 2900 level (a huge distance as you see). On a smaller scale, the current bracket top around 2400/2450** (just at the pit session gap down base from 10.06). Far below that we have a first resistance made by the 10.10 pit gap down around 2313. Generally anyhow I try to consider the market...
Yeah my same view.
In fact to support this view I can say that at 2304 there is the 1^ daily PP as resistence and at 2440 there is the 3^ daily resistence.
If the first us GAP moving is broken we can test around 2450.
I do not think the price will retrace beyond the 2 gaps -- euro (2650 - 2480) -- us (2598 - 2467) -- considering that during sydney 10.06 there were an initiative selling.
The trend is down the only variable that can unlock the price is Yellen.
Looking where we are now (in the VA of US) a movement around 1.2300 it is quite difficult.
  • #912
  • Oct 14, 2016 6:32am Oct 14, 2016 6:32am
Quoting Devart
{quote} Yeah my same view. In fact to support this view I can say that at 2304 there is the 1^ daily PP as resistence and at 2440 there is the 3^ daily resistence. If the first us GAP moving is broken we can test around 2450. I do not think the price will retrace beyond the 2 gaps -- euro (2650 - 2480) -- us (2598 - 2467) -- considering that during sydney 10.06 there were an initiative selling. The trend is down the only variable that can unlock the price is Yellen. Looking where we are now (in the VA of US) a movement around 1.2300 it is quite...
I really don't now what could happen in the next days. As written this morning today is a very important day for currencies (read here if you like) So I think what we could see today is weak hands playing and eventually punished by slightly bigger timeframes. For now I period is inside H that is inside G. Let's see J if it will trying a test above or eventually will remove weak hands below.
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  • #913
  • Oct 14, 2016 6:47am Oct 14, 2016 6:47am
So here we are in the last 15 minutes for GB before preUS open. For now we are inside yesterday pit session range/value, so, as written by Devart, we could expect initial acceptation of yesterday range and eventually tests (I add this) above and/or below it. If for some reason J will do a spike test above the first target is at 22786 cluster. If it will break downside we could have some correction of the weaknesses below: C D E F G period lows.
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  • #914
  • Oct 14, 2016 7:05am Oct 14, 2016 7:05am
14:05 PreUS opened inside yetserday pit range (21848-22724) inside yesterday value. It immediately tested above GB high and is now tagging the Tokyo poor high at 2261.
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  • #915
  • Oct 14, 2016 7:10am Oct 14, 2016 7:10am
Yetserday pit session is a double distribution one. Consider these distributions as separate sessions: lower one 21848-22326, upper one 2238-22645. Price action is to be considered in relation to them.

And preUS is now testing below the upper one.

14:13 Now testing the top of the lower one: 22326
Acceptation inside lower one means possible correction of the 2 back to back pit session poor lows. Rejection from it could lead to new test upside. Note that current TAG of Tokyo high is very weak 2261. And this is clearly liquidation of GB weak short covering for now.
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  • #916
  • Oct 14, 2016 7:29am Oct 14, 2016 7:29am
14:29 heavy liquidation for now: watch out!
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  • #917
  • Oct 14, 2016 7:41am Oct 14, 2016 7:41am
Quoting Lock
Yetserday pit session is a double distribution one. Consider these distributions as separate sessions: lower one 21848-22326, upper one 2238-22645. Price action is to be considered in relation to them. And preUS is now testing below the upper one. 14:13 Now testing the top of the lower one: 22326 Acceptation inside lower one means possible correction of the 2 back to back pit session poor lows. Rejection from it could lead to new test upside. Note that current TAG of Tokyo high is very weak 2261. And this is clearly liquidation of GB weak short...
Why do you say " TAG of Tokyo high is very weak 2261 (ok it is clear) . And this is clearly liquidation of GB weak short covering for now" ?
if it would have reached 2270 what would that means?
  • #918
  • Oct 14, 2016 7:42am Oct 14, 2016 7:42am
14:41 yes preUS open (GB unchanged) tagged at the pip (2213)
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  • #919
  • Oct 14, 2016 7:46am Oct 14, 2016 7:46am
Quoting Devart
{quote} Why do you say " TAG of Tokyo high is very weak 2261 (ok it is clear) . And this is clearly liquidation of GB weak short covering for now" ? if it would have reached 2270 what would that means?

From a very precise and exact reference (also poor high) it made a sharp fast move downside: this is not an action made by stronger timeframes nor for the starting point (an exact reference) nor for the sharpness of it. Also we know that below we got a lot of weak hands moving price higher: a perfect spot for slightly bigger timeframes... It's a correction of inventories made too long by weak hands buyers.

More serious money would do a test above Tokyo, removing weak hands from there and then, after the test they woud make a more normal action downside. Nor they would stop at an other exact reference as yesterday GB high (2218 preUS A period low)
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  • #920
  • Oct 14, 2016 7:56am Oct 14, 2016 7:56am
Quoting Lock
F inside bar of E. E, F, D, and C lows all weak. If it will attempt a break above F, watch out. If below it, you know where is probably going. Also note that both E and F periods closed below yesterday GB session high: so for now we have a clear rejection upside.
Quoting Lock
{quote} Well, I try to not go against odds, but I'm never sure of anything but taxes and death. The thing I know is that we are watching short covering for now and that we have a lot of weaknesses below. This does not mean at all it cannot last, it means it is weak downside.
Quoting Lock
Now, the real change upside could be a gap higher for upcoming pit session (above 22724): in this particular case, as written this morning**, we could skip the poor lows at least for some time. Let's see. **From one of the early morning posts: {quote} But I continue to consider this not so probable. Sometime short covering could be very impressive but unless something change it is old business and not new money buying.
E, F and G GB periods cluster taken out. Those who were buying (sorry for the previous typo) above the F balance are no more. I'm not saying it was not a licit trade, I'm saying that if you know what market is doing and who are your competitors you have an edge against others. You could absolutely do such trades but you have to know what you are doing and which are your odds.
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