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The Really Useless Thread

  • #144,181
  • Oct 13, 2016 12:51pm Oct 13, 2016 12:51pm
US equities held a first serious attempt to break down with markets entering in RMT and risk on the background via UK. However, they are showing some serious weakness. Not only setting the high of this year is around the corner but also a mid term high (may not even see higher till late 2017/early 2018 if confirmed) is in play for this Q.

I am shy by an inch or two to change mid term outlook in US equities (need a a final trigger news to be 100% convinced) but more importantly for today close:

--> Changing short term outlook in US equities from choppy buy to neutral that may last till election if European politics doesn't blow markets before.

On the rest of the board, FX with a potential and fresh 'roll play' in the majors ...talk details later...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,182
  • Oct 13, 2016 1:17pm Oct 13, 2016 1:17pm
If tonight China's data are negative like last night, Equities "will" sink immediately. "Black Friday"!
  • #144,183
  • Edited 2:20pm Oct 13, 2016 1:40pm | Edited 2:20pm
Quoting sisse
FX with a potential and fresh 'roll play' in the majors ...talk details later... sisse
I'll settle for an inside bar on UJ

an engulfing on EU would be welcome, but tomorrow leaves it open for me

@PTL, you in AU yet? shorts look like they have a decent chance...but I would still like to short higher...I'm greedy

juicy short lined up with this chart in the mid zone- I'm going to play that
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  • #144,184
  • Oct 13, 2016 2:22pm Oct 13, 2016 2:22pm
Responses to Survey of Primary Dealers Markets Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York September 2016


https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibr...16-results.pdf


Not sure if this might be of interest to anyone.
  • #144,185
  • Oct 13, 2016 2:58pm Oct 13, 2016 2:58pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I'll settle for an inside bar on UJ an engulfing on EU would be welcome, but tomorrow leaves it open for me @PTL, you in AU yet? shorts look like they have a decent chance...but I would still like to short higher...I'm greedy juicy short lined up with this chart in the mid zone- I'm going to play that {image}
no, I'm not in, but agree, that 7620/30 area looks nice, especially with those two test/failures up there....
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #144,186
  • Oct 13, 2016 3:05pm Oct 13, 2016 3:05pm
Large hands active on the US Equities close sending early alerts of what is cooking on the background. On the FX board we have 'roll play' for the first time since September both in Euro and Yen.

Given the latest developments in the UK front until some clarity in the next few days:

--> Changing short term in Sterling from untradable sell to panic sell.

For those that haven't witness live panic or manic legs since last Financial crisis basically stay sidelined is best advice if you are not a very seasoned and sharp trader. Only fast volatility plays are tradable and there is no time to think in between... fortunes can me made and loss in times like this ...

For now is just constraint to the Pound but it may spread across the board following this domino pattern for this time only (yen / dollar / euro / gold / equities) . Not expecting to spread right now but rather next year but technicality and fundamentally is possible from today close.

Interesting times cooking for the rest of the year ....

sisse

Quoting Robb1e
Responses to Survey of Primary Dealers Markets Group, Federal Reserve Bank of New York September 2016 https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibr...16-results.pdf Not sure if this might be of interest to anyone.
We are around 70% after the minutes ...it will adjust up or down on the next round of numbers, for now is just the same done deal by default since September.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,187
  • Oct 13, 2016 3:22pm Oct 13, 2016 3:22pm
For those interested, I updated the "Outlook" document for your reference.
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx OUTLOOK_UPDATES.DOCX   30 KB | 410 downloads
Attached File(s)
File Type: docx OUTLOOK_UPDATES.DOCX   30 KB | 410 downloads
  • #144,188
  • Oct 13, 2016 3:31pm Oct 13, 2016 3:31pm
Quoting Fadhl
For those interested, I updated the "Outlook" document for your reference.{file}{file}
FYI, we are in neutral mid and long term in US equities. Long term no changes on sight, and I doubt we change anything next year except if the random guy wins election and destroy the US ..... mid term change is around the corner ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,189
  • Oct 13, 2016 3:38pm Oct 13, 2016 3:38pm
EU fighting for that engulfing last minutes- I do love watching the end of day/week/month technical closes.

Makes you wonder the hands behind it
  • #144,190
  • Oct 13, 2016 3:39pm Oct 13, 2016 3:39pm
Quoting Pharm0r
EU fighting for that engulfing last minutes
It's already decided in my books.... close is irrelevant.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,191
  • Oct 13, 2016 3:43pm Oct 13, 2016 3:43pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} It's already decided in my books.... close is irrelevant. sisse
For you and your books

There are others out there
  • #144,192
  • Oct 13, 2016 3:46pm Oct 13, 2016 3:46pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} For you and your books There are others out there
Aggressive Pharm0r .... je je je ok lets play hard ball so ....we'll talk on the exact roll to create some controversy...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,193
  • Oct 13, 2016 3:57pm Oct 13, 2016 3:57pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Aggressive Pharm0r .... je je je ok lets play hard ball so ....we'll talk on the exact roll to create some controversy... sisse
Always in for a little controversy

Will be heading home in 30 and making some food- so I'll catch you soon
  • #144,194
  • Oct 13, 2016 4:04pm Oct 13, 2016 4:04pm
...just to tease Pharm0r... Euro rolling very bearish for the day with 'roll play' for today as expected since the European close....

sisse

PS: you will owe me a beer if you learn something after today close ...je je je
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #144,195
  • Oct 13, 2016 4:34pm Oct 13, 2016 4:34pm
Quoting sisse
...just to tease Pharm0r... Euro rolling very bearish for the day with 'roll play' for today as expected since the European close.... sisse PS: you will owe me a beer if you learn something after today close ...je je je
Why is it a very bearish daily candle close in eurusd?
  • #144,196
  • Oct 13, 2016 4:40pm Oct 13, 2016 4:40pm
Quoting sisse
...just to tease Pharm0r... Euro rolling very bearish for the day with 'roll play' for today as expected since the European close.... sisse PS: you will owe me a beer if you learn something after today close ...je je je

didn't engulf >?
  • #144,197
  • Edited 5:05pm Oct 13, 2016 4:46pm | Edited 5:05pm
Disagree. In fact I'll put my nuts on the table and go as far as to say that anyone choosing the soft reverso position is sitting pretty nice with today's close, and the only thing for us to fear is an overshoot tomorrow.

My money is where my mouth is (playing live)....

But of course I'm all ears if you've got some teaching to do Always love some education

@Earleone - you brought your bucket right?
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  • #144,198
  • Oct 13, 2016 4:55pm Oct 13, 2016 4:55pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Sure. Given there is no official close in FX. 'Roll' used as per reference in spot FX for the daily close at NY. "Roll in play" it just my own coined term to highlight there is a Trade opp on the close (D.W/M/Q). --> In practical terms a 'roll' play usually shows up at the end of pullbacks/begging of continuation moves and is made in the very calm waters (the opposite of a news trade) where most of unaware traders can't even smell it. --> It doesn't necessarily mean that action is taking place at the exact closing range but rather the opposite:...
Relevant.
  • #144,199
  • Oct 13, 2016 5:17pm Oct 13, 2016 5:17pm
Quoting USD-Bear
giving UK100 shorts a try @ 7036 UK100 D1: {image}
looked like 1 try could be enough this morning, now wondering....

UK100 H4:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #144,200
  • Oct 13, 2016 5:23pm Oct 13, 2016 5:23pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Disagree. In fact I'll put my nuts on the table and go as far as to say that anyone choosing the soft reverso position is sitting pretty nice with today's close, and the only thing for us to fear is an overshoot tomorrow. My money is where my mouth is (playing live).... But of course I'm all ears if you've got some teaching to do Always love some education @Earleone - you brought your bucket right? {image} {image}
i see you've moved over here these days, ... 1.1095 HL after Brexit up to its swing at 1.123xx gives 1.0984ish... don't know if you saw,,, and that daily close as you say was lovely...
i still drop in every now and then to see your posts, and the others here, nice thread.
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