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  • #141
  • Oct 11, 2016 11:08pm Oct 11, 2016 11:08pm
Wow..what a nice thread. I need to read one more time to digest. Thanks for sharing your knowledge......Keep up the good work your life be forever blessed for such good work.
-happyTrading-myFx.
  • #142
  • Oct 12, 2016 12:43am Oct 12, 2016 12:43am
I just took a loss on the EUR NZD, any comments is well appreciated :-)
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  • #143
  • Oct 12, 2016 1:00am Oct 12, 2016 1:00am
minosd - This is FOREX.. there is nothing guaranteed ; )

PS
Personally I think - firstly - did u looked at daily at that point? Second thing is that if you looked backward you would see chopping price action (from 5th to 11th) and that was a fakey breakout. This is only my point..
  • #144
  • Oct 12, 2016 6:41am Oct 12, 2016 6:41am
Quoting WDays
1.1080 low got taken, like we said. Bearish until 1.1020. Now do you see why I don't trust candlestick patterns? {image}
As called. And once again, like russian puppets
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  • #145
  • Oct 12, 2016 6:54am Oct 12, 2016 6:54am
Quoting minosd
I just took a loss on the EUR NZD, any comments is well appreciated :-) {image}
Those exotic pairs are highly volatile. Look at price action to your left. We have a range completion at 1.5646, and another range at 1.5730 to which the rally extended. Once it reached that, and having broken an important mid-term high, it was bound to pullback. What's more, in the most recent price action, we have a very sharp market rally, leaving an area of "liquidity void" as we mentioned it in an earlier post.

Now I am now familiar with EUR/NZD fundamentals, but unless it has a very heavy driver, the rally cannot go on before it covers that. So I would expect a deeper pullback.

Lastly, we advise to take entries on smaller timeframes, just placing an order on a supply/demand level is not enough.

In a word, the pair was wayyy too overbought.
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  • #146
  • Edited 7:14am Oct 12, 2016 6:56am | Edited 7:14am
Quoting vijai_701
Thanks Wdays Did you take trade on recent Eurusd down breakout? If yes , where exactly your entry?
I haven't traded these days, because I've been super busy with other things, I will once I find the time again...

As far as how to trade it, I will use hindsight to show a couple of possible ways to go about it, just for the sake of giving an example, if it helps... Frankly, with our bias in mind how we enter doesn't matter, so long as we don't enter as it's falling or too late in the london session. We want to capture as much of the daily range as possible.
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  • #147
  • Oct 12, 2016 6:59am Oct 12, 2016 6:59am
Excellent analysis on the EurUsd. Well done.
One against the many.
  • #148
  • Oct 12, 2016 8:37am Oct 12, 2016 8:37am
Quoting WDays
{quote} Those exotic pairs are highly volatile. Look at price action to your left. We have a range completion at 1.5646, and another range at 1.5730 to which the rally extended. Once it reached that, and having broken an important mid-term high, it was bound to pullback. What's more, in the most recent price action, we have a very sharp market rally, leaving an area of "liquidity void" as we mentioned it in an earlier post. Now I am now familiar with EUR/NZD fundamentals, but unless it has a very heavy driver, the rally cannot go on before it covers...
Like Michaelion said: too much sideways action before the demand level was created, also trend on Daily is down...for a bigger retrace there is the demand level below, but I am not sure to take this given the downtrend. Also the BL was triggered during Asion hours, learned a lot from this trade...
  • #149
  • Edited Oct 13, 2016 7:49am Oct 12, 2016 8:43am | Edited Oct 13, 2016 7:49am
Quoting minosd
{quote} Like Michaelion said: too much sideways action before the demand level was created, also trend on Daily is down...for a bigger retrace there is the demand level below, but I am not sure to take this given the downtrend. Also the BL was triggered during Asion hours, learned a lot from this trade...
Post deleted to no confuse others...
  • #150
  • Oct 12, 2016 2:05pm Oct 12, 2016 2:05pm
Quoting minosd
{quote} Like Michaelion said: too much sideways action before the demand level was created, also trend on Daily is down...for a bigger retrace there is the demand level below, but I am not sure to take this given the downtrend. Also the BL was triggered during Asion hours, learned a lot from this trade...
Minos Mate, catch me on my skypie: mikaelion99
Cheers!
  • #151
  • Oct 13, 2016 7:12am Oct 13, 2016 7:12am
Quoting michaelion
{quote} Minosd there is also a bigger picture to that - I do not know if you watch all ICT movies, but in the first one the is sthng which for not every one is obvious as it should be. To understand the current trend: {image}
That's kinda it But the problem with watching too many instruments for our correlations is that more than one of them is bound to diverge from the bunch. That's why I just eye USDx.

Another useful thing is the commitment of traders report.
  • #152
  • Edited 9:02am Oct 13, 2016 7:58am | Edited 9:02am
Quoting WDays
{quote} That's kinda it But the problem with watching too many instruments for our correlations is that more than one of them is bound to diverge from the bunch. That's why I just eye USDx. Another useful thing is the commitment of traders report.
Alex, regarding "entry candle" how we should do if there is two or more candles which could be "entry", is there is some additional rule for inbars or outside bars? hard to say which one is best...
Some EU buy setup..?
[attach]2039338[/attach
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  • #153
  • Oct 13, 2016 8:42am Oct 13, 2016 8:42am
Great thread but some are confusing this with ICT where has the name order blocks been added that's an ICT term .
  • #154
  • Oct 13, 2016 9:01am Oct 13, 2016 9:01am
Quoting morse
Great thread but some are confusing this with ICT where has the name order blocks been added that's an ICT term .
morse you are right, I will delete that, but in overall idea is similar - my bad that I am binding it together.
  • #155
  • Oct 13, 2016 11:17am Oct 13, 2016 11:17am
No worries I don't trade ICT's methods I have heard some good things about him and some bad things . He was challenged recently to trade against another trader and all accounts were scrutinised by someone independent when it came to the end of the challenge ICT failed to provide his account the other trader did. Make what you will from that. I do have a problem with people who claim to be successful then start mentoring it doesn't seem right to me .
  • #156
  • Oct 13, 2016 1:19pm Oct 13, 2016 1:19pm
Quoting morse
No worries I don't trade ICT's methods I have heard some good things about him and some bad things . He was challenged recently to trade against another trader and all accounts were scrutinised by someone independent when it came to the end of the challenge ICT failed to provide his account the other trader did. Make what you will from that. I do have a problem with people who claim to be successful then start mentoring it doesn't seem right to me .
Morse as you know bc as I see you are here from 2007, it is a norm here on FF there are many "wizards of the markets" here and there.. but there are also some "Goldies" with interesting ideas...
  • #157
  • Oct 13, 2016 1:48pm Oct 13, 2016 1:48pm
Yes there are , I don't know about you or anyone on her but since post Brexit trading has been terrible , PA seems to be redundant I use Dante's methods who is a real gent but even he is struggling, so was interested in this thread and to see if anyone is doing well, I haven't come on here for years .
  • #158
  • Oct 13, 2016 4:13pm Oct 13, 2016 4:13pm
Quoting michaelion
{quote} Alex, regarding "entry candle" how we should do if there is two or more candles which could be "entry", is there is some additional rule for inbars or outside bars? hard to say which one is best... Some EU buy setup..? [attach]2039338[/attach {image}
There isn't an exact trigger, like I said. We look for levels, take trades at or near them. You can use any trigger signal you want, if inbars or outside bars is your thing - by all means, use that. It won't make a difference, since you're trading with the trend and more importantly with the smart money

This is kind of hard to grasp at first, but eventually it gets easier.
  • #159
  • Oct 13, 2016 4:18pm Oct 13, 2016 4:18pm
Sat in front of my charts a bit late, missed the drop to the previously shown level, so tried to enter on a retracement. It went for a second test before it shot up, unfortunately it never made it to my 30 pip TP and turned after 22 pips. I usually lock breakeven after 20 pips in the green. The end result was this...

(2 day old trade, first time I can sit in front of my terminal in a few days...)
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  • #160
  • Oct 13, 2016 4:35pm Oct 13, 2016 4:35pm
Well EU reached the target we called, what's next?

I'm looking at a dollar chart right now aaaand...

Price reached some supply which caused it to turn today, however it may still go to 98.63, where another juicy supply area is waiting. Now, personally I think we may see some bearishness going into next week, leaving that level intact for now... Downside levels I'm eyeing for sensitivity: 97.39 as a recently broken high; the 96.40 area used to be resistance, holding the dollar at bay, but once it was broken, it was retested and held as support; below that we'll just have to see...

On the fundamental side, the dollar doesn't really have a strong reason to decline... All eyes are on a possible federal rate hike for the 2nd time this year, so every drop is a possible long entry in the long term. The dollar is however very overbought what with recent price action, and it will need a breather before it keeps on going.
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