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AUD/USD

  • #99,101
  • Oct 13, 2016 12:25am Oct 13, 2016 12:25am
Quoting ell3
here we are again at an important level. trend line support for 2016. if it gives way, the implication is that this pair will fall through quite a bit, first target being 7440 (september low). if it bounces off, we could most likely be seeing a bounce back towards the upper trend line resistance, currently at around 7700. note that there are no further potentially market-moving events for at least a week... i.e. nothing to significantly alter the direction of the pair once it has chosen a direction. {image}
Trendline support respected as at time of writing. Rebounded up to .7540.

lets see how it it goes when London opens.
  • #99,102
  • Oct 13, 2016 2:33am Oct 13, 2016 2:33am
Quoting SkyrEk
{quote} Trendline support respected as at time of writing. Rebounded up to .7540. lets see how it it goes when London opens.
there are different versions of the line, depending on where the points were picked earlier in the year when drawing the line. but the lowest possible variation should put the trend support around 7490. another version sits at 7506 - and it just bounced off 7506 quite nicely +12pips. went heavy on a buy there and it played out well. i'd buy again if it hits 7506, altho smaller qty and if it drops further, buy double at 7490ish. stops both below 7485.
  • #99,103
  • Oct 13, 2016 3:36am Oct 13, 2016 3:36am
On the 4H chart there was a H&S triggered tp zone to be around .74950 I wouldnt go long untill it hits this area. check out my blog posts.

Just to note there is also a H&S forming on the daily if this triggers we may be back to the .70-.71 area.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,104
  • Oct 13, 2016 4:53am Oct 13, 2016 4:53am
nice bullish reversal 1hr candle. hit the 100bar on the M5 chart. as of now, it's the longest looking 1hr bullish candle in a long time.
this is where it may probably reverse downwards yet again. pending what the USD does...the 30pip climb was about USD selling. cool stuff!
  • #99,105
  • Oct 13, 2016 10:54am Oct 13, 2016 10:54am
hmm, where do we go from here with this pair anyone has a view?

oil is down, gold is down, the USD is behaving erratically.
imo, leaning on technical levels will be the best option for intraday trading for now in the absence of fundamental/data leads. other views please.
  • #99,106
  • Oct 13, 2016 11:25am Oct 13, 2016 11:25am
Quoting ell3
hmm, where do we go from here with this pair anyone has a view? oil is down, gold is down, the USD is behaving erratically. imo, leaning on technical levels will be the best option for intraday trading for now in the absence of fundamental/data leads. other views please.
I'm looking up, targeting to touch 0.7730 in several days.
Holding my buy for now..
But, if it's back down, will need to lock it around 0.7485.
  • #99,107
  • Oct 13, 2016 1:01pm Oct 13, 2016 1:01pm
Can anyone explain why AUD/USD is rising so much in the past few hours?
  • #99,108
  • Oct 13, 2016 1:15pm Oct 13, 2016 1:15pm
Quoting Dazza3500
Can anyone explain why AUD/USD is rising so much in the past few hours?
i'm equally confused too. the markets have been very confusing today. sharp one directional moves...and then sharp reversals.
the only old story about AUD strength is about yield factors which make the AUD more attractive. but in the current climate (and i'm talking in terms of time frame of a few days) today's moves have been nothing short of senseless. the only thing i can see is that the moves are following the JPY moves, not so much the USD.
lost quite a bit today when, on hindsight, it could have easily been a good day sitting short to good support then buying into that support and holding.
  • #99,109
  • Oct 13, 2016 1:37pm Oct 13, 2016 1:37pm
Aussie is operating in a range - within a descending channel. You can get a better picture of it from your $H chart.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #99,110
  • Oct 13, 2016 1:54pm Oct 13, 2016 1:54pm
Quoting ell3
{quote} i'm equally confused too. the markets have been very confusing today. sharp one directional moves...and then sharp reversals. the only old story about AUD strength is about yield factors which make the AUD more attractive. but in the current climate (and i'm talking in terms of time frame of a few days) today's moves have been nothing short of senseless. the only thing i can see is that the moves are following the JPY moves, not so much the USD. lost quite a bit today when, on hindsight, it could have easily been a good day sitting short...
Yeah it does seem to be moving quite excessively given the lack of news/data. I got caught shorting waiting for a pullback that never came and threw away all the day's gains; should have had a tighter stop.

It almost feels foolish to not be shorting right now though, what do you reckon?
  • #99,111
  • Oct 13, 2016 7:09pm Oct 13, 2016 7:09pm
Quoting Dazza3500
Can anyone explain why AUD/USD is rising so much in the past few hours?
The USD index taking a dive is what caused it.
20 Pips a day keeps centerlink away
  • #99,112
  • Oct 13, 2016 7:56pm Oct 13, 2016 7:56pm
Quoting PaulDaemon
{quote} The USD index taking a dive is what caused it.
I see.

So I guess my question becomes what caused the USD index to dive?
  • #99,113
  • Oct 13, 2016 8:59pm Oct 13, 2016 8:59pm
Quoting Dazza3500
{quote} I see. So I guess my question becomes what caused the USD index to dive?
USD index is having a correction and profit taking. It is heavily overbought, so I guess more correction is coming.

And also China CPI data just now was good, so it gives more boost to AUD also.
  • #99,114
  • Edited 9:24pm Oct 13, 2016 9:00pm | Edited 9:24pm
Daily Chart. Nothing to panic about, its been moving in a range, no breakouts or whatsoever. It all boils down to your positioning whether are you positioned at an area of value.

From here it can go up to retest .7650- .7680. If it breaks the downtrend line, it will go higher, .7700 and above.

Cheers!
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  • #99,115
  • Oct 13, 2016 9:42pm Oct 13, 2016 9:42pm
Quoting Shelika
{quote} USD index is having a correction and profit taking. It is heavily overbought, so I guess more correction is coming. And also China CPI data just now was good, so it gives more boost to AUD also.
Makes sense.
Cheers.
  • #99,116
  • Oct 13, 2016 10:56pm Oct 13, 2016 10:56pm
yep, it's likely to be heading upwards actually. i monitor the A/U side by side with the U/J & US$ index, the correlation yesterday was more related to the JPY. The US$ movement was a result of the JPY movement. It could be both ways too though, profit taking on the USD. there's US retail sales data later today which could ignite more US$ profit taking or vice versa. the only profitable trade yesterday was a buy from the bottom at 7506...if only i held that longer than just for 15pips!!
  • #99,117
  • Oct 13, 2016 11:35pm Oct 13, 2016 11:35pm
Quoting ell3
yep, it's likely to be heading upwards actually. i monitor the A/U side by side with the U/J & US$ index, the correlation yesterday was more related to the JPY. The US$ movement was a result of the JPY movement. It could be both ways too though, profit taking on the USD. there's US retail sales data later today which could ignite more US$ profit taking or vice versa. the only profitable trade yesterday was a buy from the bottom at 7506...if only i held that longer than just for 15pips!!
hi ell3, great sharing. thanks.
  • #99,118
  • Oct 14, 2016 4:59am Oct 14, 2016 4:59am
AUD has be climbing but you will find that allot of traders / hedge funds will start selling right about now.

Patients will be the key and also what is very important is that if you are trading today you should have access capital.

Market will be funny tonight.
  • #99,119
  • Oct 14, 2016 5:14am Oct 14, 2016 5:14am
Quoting hongyun
{quote} hi ell3, great sharing. thanks.
np.

one more tap at 7628-30 and i'd say there's a high chance that's the top for today.
AUD/JPY has also hit resistance at 79.59. JPY has hit trendline resistance. after moving 80pips, i'd be quite surprised if the A/U has more buyers to take it further.
of course with the US retail sales data later, that will be a different story.
  • #99,120
  • Oct 14, 2016 6:30am Oct 14, 2016 6:30am
[quote=Fhillip;9196639]{quote} I'm looking up, targeting to touch 0.7730 in several days. Holding my buy for now.. But, if it's back down, will need to lock it around 0.7485.[/quote

I closed my buy at 0.7586 these morning with good green pips, I think closed it to early.
I predict AUD will get high last night and it's happen, the reason is USD is already overbought.. So when USD correction down, AUD will do the opposite.. Going up. And it's happened.

Have a good trading friend, and have a good weekend.

Anyway, I just open sell at 0.7633, I think it will going down.. Let's see.
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