USD/RUB | Page 43 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

USD/RUB

Similar Threads

USD/RUB 6 replies

Rub's accountability 184 replies

Which brokers pay big swap for USD/RUB short position? 8 replies

Shorting Eur/Rub 3 replies

Reliable broker for USD/RUB 26 replies

Attachments: USD/RUB
Exit Attachments

USD/RUB

  • #841
  • Oct 12, 2016 8:52am Oct 12, 2016 8:52am
Quoting manosk
{quote} USD/RUB reached the first level where one could sell, at the H1 100 MA, namely 62.68. I would wait as we should see minimum 62.80, ideally 63.10 or even better 63.55. But if you are afraid of losing the train, then open some part of your position here.
A combination of factors could even shoot USD/RUB to 64.12. This becomes more and more a realistic possibility as we see USD Index wanting to see 100 and oil correcting. If oil's correction finishes at 46.90 and USD Index reaches 100 then 64.12 is a very realistic level and shorting USD/RUB there will gave very nice risk/reward ratio
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #842
  • Oct 13, 2016 2:38am Oct 13, 2016 2:38am
Quoting manosk
{quote} A combination of factors could even shoot USD/RUB to 64.12. This becomes more and more a realistic possibility as we see USD Index wanting to see 100 and oil correcting. If oil's correction finishes at 46.90 and USD Index reaches 100 then 64.12 is a very realistic level and shorting USD/RUB there will gave very nice risk/reward ratio
Already my first target to initiate a short has been reached in USD/RUB (63.46 precisely). Considering the speed of the drop in oil price and the stability of the USD gains I feel I need to revise my expectations of the USD/RUB targets. If oil continues on the current course it will easily reach 48.65 in the next days and by then USD/RUB will already be at 64.12. This is for sure a great level to short (as discussed previously) in case the correction in oil stops at this level. But maybe keep some ammunition for the 64.43 level (maybe a 1/5 of the position).
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #843
  • Oct 13, 2016 7:58am Oct 13, 2016 7:58am
This one is not confirmed. Strange article. Keep eyes open and please post if finding out more about this.

It is telling that Putin order officials to return home to Russia. Maybe something is boiling.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news...ectid=11727940
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #844
  • Oct 13, 2016 8:08am Oct 13, 2016 8:08am
Quoting Earleone
This one is not confirmed. Strange article. Keep eyes open and please post if finding out more about this. It is telling that Putin order officials to return home to Russia. Maybe something is boiling. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news...ectid=11727940
Interesting thanks for that. Vlad can you confirm?

The other question is what happens to USD/RUB as a result? It is not clear to me. If there is war then oil should surge which means USD/RUB should drop dramatically. But a war is not good for any local currency...
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #845
  • Oct 13, 2016 9:09am Oct 13, 2016 9:09am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Interesting thanks for that. Vlad can you confirm? The other question is what happens to USD/RUB as a result? It is not clear to me. If there is war then oil should surge which means USD/RUB should drop dramatically. But a war is not good for any local currency...
Yes, I have heard that "Putin has told officials to fly relatives living abroad back to Russia".

Original (in Russian) is
https://www.znak.com/2016-10-11/ross...eley_na_rodinu

But this it the Local Media from Ekaterinburg (just one city in Russia). It is not The Fedaral Media Source.
So these are only rumors. And of course it is not concerned to the tesis of "about a call of war".

Here is an official denial by Peskov D.

http://www.rbc.ru/politics/11/10/201...7668?from=main

Best
D.P.

P.S. If something is boiling - it is not from Russia. Do not worry and keep calm.
Hunting High and Low
  • #846
  • Oct 13, 2016 9:29am Oct 13, 2016 9:29am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Yes, I have heard that "Putin has told officials to fly relatives living abroad back to Russia". Original (in Russian) is https://www.znak.com/2016-10-11/ross...eley_na_rodinu But this it the Local Media from Ekaterinburg (just one city in Russia). It is not The Fedaral Media Source. So these are only rumors. And of course it is not concerned to the tesis of "about a call of war". Here is an official denial by Peskov D. http://www.rbc.ru/politics/11/10/201...7668?from=main...
thanks for the fast and reliable service my friend.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #847
  • Oct 13, 2016 10:32am Oct 13, 2016 10:32am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Already my first target to initiate a short has been reached in USD/RUB (63.46 precisely). Considering the speed of the drop in oil price and the stability of the USD gains I feel I need to revise my expectations of the USD/RUB targets. If oil continues on the current course it will easily reach 48.65 in the next days and by then USD/RUB will already be at 64.12. This is for sure a great level to short (as discussed previously) in case the correction in oil stops at this level. But maybe keep some ammunition for the 64.43 level (maybe a...
Initiated as per plan 2/5 of the short position at 63.35.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #848
  • Oct 14, 2016 9:49am Oct 14, 2016 9:49am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Initiated as per plan 2/5 of the short position at 63.35.
Closed the position at 62.98 (current level for those following the trade) for a few pips profit as I dont like the movement in oil and DX. I prefer to stay on the sidelines and look for better opportunities to reenter.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #849
  • Oct 28, 2016 3:40am Oct 28, 2016 3:40am
Quoting manosk
{quote} Closed the position at 62.98 (current level for those following the trade) for a few pips profit as I dont like the movement in oil and DX. I prefer to stay on the sidelines and look for better opportunities to reenter.
waiting for another push to 63.45 to short USD/RUB again
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #850
  • Oct 28, 2016 4:12am Oct 28, 2016 4:12am
Quoting manosk
{quote} waiting for another push to 63.45 to short USD/RUB again
I am in with an early one. Next for me is 63.30
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #851
  • Oct 31, 2016 9:44am Oct 31, 2016 9:44am
Considering the current situation, meaning the drop in oil, I dont expect oil to drop below 45.96 which means that I dont expect USD/RUB to strengthen above 64.40. It could also be that we have seen the retracement in oil prices which means that we will resume the uptrend pretty soon. This means that these levels here are good to start building short positions in USD/RUB (current 63.38). Consider opening short positions here or if you want to be a bit patient wait for an overshoot to 63.74 if it happens today. I would consider this level, a nice level for a short for up to 2/5 of the position.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #852
  • Nov 2, 2016 6:11am Nov 2, 2016 6:11am
Quoting manosk
Considering the current situation, meaning the drop in oil, I dont expect oil to drop below 45.96 which means that I dont expect USD/RUB to strengthen above 64.40. It could also be that we have seen the retracement in oil prices which means that we will resume the uptrend pretty soon. This means that these levels here are good to start building short positions in USD/RUB (current 63.38). Consider opening short positions here or if you want to be a bit patient wait for an overshoot to 63.74 if it happens today. I would consider this level, a nice...
As far as I am concerned we have seen the correction in oil, dont expect much more so I would increase my position in USD/RUB at these levels.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #853
  • Nov 4, 2016 4:01am Nov 4, 2016 4:01am
Quoting manosk
{quote} As far as I am concerned we have seen the correction in oil, dont expect much more so I would increase my position in USD/RUB at these levels.
I give it a try here. Worst case I see for oil is around 40 level. I do not think it goes that deep. We are at support ( also fib not on chart )

Maybe it will range some period around this levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XTIUSDWeekly.png Size: 43 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #854
  • Nov 8, 2016 2:54am Nov 8, 2016 2:54am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I give it a try here. Worst case I see for oil is around 40 level. I do not think it goes that deep. We are at support ( also fib not on chart ) Maybe it will range some period around this levels. {image}
Think we has seen the bottom for now in Oil. We has a HL on daily ( and weekly ) Expectation technical is a HH now above 52.35 .
Can be bumpy today with the election. If election goes against expectation I will do a new consideration.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XTIUSDDaily.png Size: 60 KB
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #855
  • Nov 8, 2016 3:10am Nov 8, 2016 3:10am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} Think we has seen the bottom for now in Oil. We has a HL on daily ( and weekly ) Expectation technical is a HH now above 52.35 . Can be bumpy today with the election. If election goes against expectation I will do a new consideration. {image}
I hear you. I am also in, added some on Friday at 64.45 and I believe we are poised for an upside in oil so we will see a nice move in USD/RUB to the downside
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #856
  • Nov 10, 2016 10:48am Nov 10, 2016 10:48am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I hear you. I am also in, added some on Friday at 64.45 and I believe we are poised for an upside in oil so we will see a nice move in USD/RUB to the downside
The Orange 4h futures chart and The Colored Daily Spot Chart for USD/RUB
We have a breaktrough up.
There is 67 coming in.

Best
D.P.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-10_19-46-10.jpg Size: 148 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-11-10_19-46-47.jpg Size: 515 KB
Hunting High and Low
  • #857
  • Nov 11, 2016 5:25am Nov 11, 2016 5:25am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} The Orange 4h futures chart and The Colored Daily Spot Chart for USD/RUB We have a breaktrough up. There is 67 coming in. Best D.P. {image} {image}
You might be right, the past 2 days have been dramatic, almost 3 rubles in 2 days. It will depend on oil. These levels might be an opportunity to short but I rather wait for a further overshoot to either 66.38 or 67.21 before adding to my position. Also in my weekly chart it broke the trend since last week and this week forcefully established the trend. These moves teach the importance of large account or little leverage when trading such pairs
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #858
  • Nov 11, 2016 6:49am Nov 11, 2016 6:49am
Quoting manosk
{quote} You might be right, the past 2 days have been dramatic, almost 3 rubles in 2 days. It will depend on oil. These levels might be an opportunity to short but I rather wait for a further overshoot to either 66.38 or 67.21 before adding to my position. Also in my weekly chart it broke the trend since last week and this week forcefully established the trend. These moves teach the importance of large account or little leverage when trading such pairs
I need to revise what I said earlier. After considering the subject deeply I think that the rise of USD/RUB beyond the obvious fall in the oil price, it is part of a broader fall of emerging currencies as a consequence of the election of Trump. A variety of countries have rushed the past 2 days to support their currencies (Indonesia, India) and some have seen their currencies collapse, like Mexico. This means that this could be just an irrational reaction that will correct, which means this is a great level to short USD/RUB.
"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered"
  • #859
  • Nov 11, 2016 7:19am Nov 11, 2016 7:19am
Quoting manosk
{quote} I need to revise what I said earlier. After considering the subject deeply I think that the rise of USD/RUB beyond the obvious fall in the oil price, it is part of a broader fall of emerging currencies as a consequence of the election of Trump. A variety of countries have rushed the past 2 days to support their currencies (Indonesia, India) and some have seen their currencies collapse, like Mexico. This means that this could be just an irrational reaction that will correct, which means this is a great level to short USD/RUB.
I agree to your first part . But I am not sure we have seen the end of it short term. I will wait some confirmation . In the time between I will live with some pain And from your past post. Yes low leverage is a must for USDRUB trading.

USDX tested top yesterday. Will possible do a new try next week.

Long term: it should not be any big problem. Trump will spend a lot of money inside the US , Oil prices will get good times ( Trump is not very positive to alternative clean energy ) . US will increase the debts . So we can get some fun years in trading USD weakness that will come.
Also I think Trump will get a much better relationship to Russia then what has been. Trade blockade with Russia will possible be removed during 2017.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #860
  • Nov 11, 2016 11:27am Nov 11, 2016 11:27am
Quoting manosk
{quote} You might be right, the past 2 days have been dramatic, almost 3 rubles in 2 days. It will depend on oil. These levels might be an opportunity to short but I rather wait for a further overshoot to either 66.38 or 67.21 before adding to my position. Also in my weekly chart it broke the trend since last week and this week forcefully established the trend. These moves teach the importance of large account or little leverage when trading such pairs
This is the most powerful sentence, my friend.

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
0 traders viewing now