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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #56,161
  • Edited 5:09am Oct 12, 2016 4:54am | Edited 5:09am
Quoting agent005
{quote} FTI, I found something you said long time ago, I apologize if you already explained this in more details, but I just don't understand what you mean here. I understand about guards change, but what does it do to market? Could you please elaborate on this? Thank you sir!
Hi Agent005,

Welcome
I believe what FTI meant is the effect of changing timezone and hence the book from Asian, then Euros, then the NYs.
Think of it, when the Asian "book keeper" come to work, the NY is off to bed/dinner after "transferring" to the azn guys .. when the Asian guy getting off, the euro guys will be getting work, and then joined back by NY soon after.
Hence, the london is usually the most busy while wellington is the thinnest.

more detail here:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...ket-system.asp

hope that helps.

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,162
  • Oct 12, 2016 4:57am Oct 12, 2016 4:57am
Quoting alexandria
{quote} Just scout(s) be ducks - hopefully...........this is my new "try not be so rigid" approach... if I think too much then I become duck... if I rigid then duck sometimes. Good today I saw em comin... for some reason... in the down move before duck hunt showed big sellers and big buyers in there around London opening... so felt like game on.....and felt buying kick in for hunt.. target(s) in sight so kept tight safety in mind....big bears every where... this is best I have done with it as I usually more rigid with trend well sort of. Somehow...
ahhhhh belly clever.
carry on.

Inserted Video


regards
  • #56,163
  • Oct 12, 2016 5:01am Oct 12, 2016 5:01am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hi Agent005, Welcome I believe what FTI meant is the effect of changing timezone and hence the book from Asian, then Euros, then the NYs. Think of it, when the Asian "book keeper" come to work, the NY is off to bed/dinner after "transferring" to the azn guys .. when the Asian guy getting off, the euro guys will be getting work, and then joined back by NY soon after. Hence, the london is usually the most busy while wellington is the thinnest. http://www.investopedia.com/articles...ket-system.asp...

thank you/

regards
  • #56,164
  • Oct 12, 2016 5:10am Oct 12, 2016 5:10am
Quoting fti
{quote} thank you/ regards

mutual, mutual

rgds

okok, i be back to stalking and reading..

FTI no read this part pls:
FOMC tonight all, all the best!
cold sweat prevention.

oh, i turned my call sign to visible once again.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,165
  • Oct 12, 2016 5:11am Oct 12, 2016 5:11am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Hi Agent005, Welcome I believe what FTI meant is the effect of changing timezone and hence the book from Asian, then Euros, then the NYs. Think of it, when the Asian "book keeper" come to work, the NY is off to bed/dinner after "transferring" to the azn guys .. when the Asian guy getting off, the euro guys will be getting work, and then joined back by NY soon after. Hence, the london is usually the most busy while wellington is the thinnest. http://www.investopedia.com/articles...ket-system.asp...
Thanks, RelaxRay! I understand the changing keeper part and high/lower liquidity part, I'm just not sure on
Quoting fti
whats happening to market trend on a macro basis
Is the idea that each "house" has his own vision of the current trend and will work accordingly, and those visions not necessarily the same between 3 houses? That's assuming that each house also trades for themselves and not just market making...
Any ideas on this?
  • #56,166
  • Edited 5:33am Oct 12, 2016 5:21am | Edited 5:33am
Quoting agent005
{quote} Thanks, RelaxRay! I understand the changing keeper part and high/lower liquidity part, I'm just not sure on {quote} Is the idea that each "house" has his own vision of the current trend and will work accordingly, and those visions not necessarily the same between 3 houses? That's assuming that each house also trades for themselves and not just market making... Any ideas on this?
Noted. no worries, ok,
Here is my take,
lets say, tonight, we have the FOMC right. this happens in NY session, and for example, the fed hikes rate. and market reacted bullish usd, usd bid on all counter.
When asian session start, and buying sighted, they too will need adjust their book and hence more buyers will come in as, they most likely want to hitch the ride, as 1) it is a fundamental change 2) the buy trend is intact.
when london-euro start, and same buying sighted, then they too will need adjust their exposure accordingly, like above.

possible that we see some easing before NY comes in, or continue with the 3rd leg for day.

my point is, each house has their own book, and position. So, lets say, house A is Nomura, japan bank, and they are short USD. what do you think they will do? they will need to adjust themselve right
what i am trying to say is, each house have their own book, and hence their exposure, and orders, market moves, they move.. this also plays together the buy side, and sell side of stuff where bank and customer interact. have you read that part yet?

rgds

oh yea, if you wana read more.. this is under market structure part of thread
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,167
  • Oct 12, 2016 6:34am Oct 12, 2016 6:34am
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Noted. no worries, ok, Here is my take, lets say, tonight, we have the FOMC right. this happens in NY session, and for example, the fed hikes rate. and market reacted bullish usd, usd bid on all counter. When asian session start, and buying sighted, they too will need adjust their book and hence more buyers will come in as, they most likely want to hitch the ride, as 1) it is a fundamental change 2) the buy trend is intact. when london-euro start, and same buying sighted, then they too will need adjust their exposure accordingly, like above....
Ok, understood, thanks RelaxRay!
I didn't get to that part yet, so will continue reading!

Best regards and happy trading!
  • #56,168
  • Edited 2:49pm Oct 12, 2016 1:39pm | Edited 2:49pm
Quoting RelaxRay
{quote} Noted. no worries, ok, Here is my take, lets say, tonight, we have the FOMC right. this happens in NY session, and for example, the fed hikes rate. and market reacted bullish usd, usd bid on all counter. When asian session start, and buying sighted, they too will need adjust their book and hence more buyers will come in as, they most likely want to hitch the ride, as 1) it is a fundamental change 2) the buy trend is intact. when london-euro start, and same buying sighted, then they too will need adjust their exposure accordingly, like above....
wah.
the concept is on the ball.

eeeer the example hahahaha.
if fomc hike rates and they book in nihon only responds at tokyo zone, then the dealer is very very dead in deep waters hor.
i dare not even think about his customers.
why ? he no have calander ka?

ok here, my compliments.
http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...elatively-soon

okok b-, good attempt explain.{hug} eeer still some distance from AAA+ hor.be happy is good. just no be 2 happy.


regards

hahahaha oh i get it.
its because it still not crossed the line? hahahahahaha
and MACD not turned?
ai ya, will it turn?
we try ride. hahahaha
bring the donkey please.
whats that line 2000 days ave?
no stogastics confirmation yet?

regraded A+

hahahaha fti turned rating agency.
eeeeer we investors?
we wait the moon cross uranus
  • #56,169
  • Oct 12, 2016 8:59pm Oct 12, 2016 8:59pm
Quoting fti
{quote} wah. the concept is on the ball. eeeer the example hahahaha. if fomc hike rates and they book in nihon only responds at tokyo zone, then the dealer is very very dead in deep waters hor. i dare not even think about his customers. why ? he no have calander ka? ok here, my compliments. http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...elatively-soon okok b-, good attempt explain.{hug} eeer still some distance...
this uranus?

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  • #56,170
  • Oct 12, 2016 9:07pm Oct 12, 2016 9:07pm
Quoting fti
{quote} regards hahahaha oh i get it. its because it still not crossed the line? hahahahahaha and MACD not turned? ai ya, will it turn? we try ride. hahahaha bring the donkey please. whats that line 2000 days ave? no stogastics confirmation yet? regraded A+ hahahaha fti turned rating agency. eeeeer we investors? we wait the moon cross uranus
No, macd already turned, but I was just waiting on rsi to go over 80, you know, needed that last confirmation...
j/k
It sounds like FTI is in happy mood, I'm really glad to hear that. I don't mind even if it's on my account, I can make a fool out of myself any day, as long as somebody smiling - I'm happy too, I don't take myself too seriously

cheer and good trading to all!
  • #56,171
  • Edited 9:24pm Oct 12, 2016 9:11pm | Edited 9:24pm
Quoting CookieMonsta
{quote} this uranus? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjFlOtXPRTI
LOL, ROTFL, great one CookieMonsta! I had a really tough day at work today and this made my day! Keep it up
  • #56,172
  • Oct 12, 2016 9:17pm Oct 12, 2016 9:17pm
Quoting agent005
{quote} LOL, ROTFL, great one CookieMonsta!
  • #56,173
  • Edited 11:12pm Oct 12, 2016 10:54pm | Edited 11:12pm
Quoting fti
{quote} wah. the concept is on the ball. eeeer the example hahahaha. if fomc hike rates and they book in nihon only responds at tokyo zone, then the dealer is very very dead in deep waters hor. i dare not even think about his customers. why ? he no have calander ka? ok here, my compliments. http://www.forexfactory.com/index.php http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...elatively-soon okok b-, good attempt explain.{hug} eeer still some distance...
oops.
sorry sorry rushing for dinner, concept oversighted.. rushing for dinner yesterday.
ahh - bad memories of last minute homework getting caught by teacher coming back to me now..

@agent005
ok, let me think of another example..
actually, on that thought, dont really need an example, just understand the house also need follow the market or rather the house makes the market, hence, that said, the house is merely reacting to price movements of the buyers and sellers.

rgds


oops, oh sorry. forgot to mention,
SMA H4 setting must be at 200, RSI look at 75.75332 for confirmation before execution of holy grail protocol.



all this news agencies, like to sell headline.
last night when FOMC came out, usd got slight bid because of that "relatively soon" cause of all the algos retard. then I guess when people started reading usd got sold. because after that "relatively soon" was "if economic developments unfolded about as the committee expected" and it was in the same sentence. which in my opinion, neutralise themselve, yet again

that is why, i always read it for myself, and highlight for myself to prevent myself from getting snooked.

oh, and this is the min for last FOMC meeting.. and if i can "crystal ball moment" for abit.. much have changed since then. just off the head, GBP "flash crash" seem to settle pretty nicely and indicate little interest to bid itself up, nor does the political side provide any bites for the buyers yesterday in the debates. FED can easily quote the "global uncertainty" card again and the presidential election to not hike rates this year at all, even though cme future pricing is bout 60% for a december move.
ok, end crystal ball moment, back to watching price.


late start today, lower back was so painful when i woke up, had to rest awhile and ended up taking a nap after sleep.
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,174
  • Edited 11:13pm Oct 12, 2016 10:56pm | Edited 11:13pm
Quoting agent005
{quote} No, macd already turned, but I was just waiting on rsi to go over 80, you know, needed that last confirmation... j/k It sounds like FTI is in happy mood, I'm really glad to hear that. I don't mind even if it's on my account, I can make a fool out of myself any day, as long as somebody smiling - I'm happy too, I don't take myself too seriously cheer and good trading to all!
hi buddy

might be my poor example that have tickle him too.
see, i knew i got long fingers and long....
oh oops, topic for another day.

but yea, am glad hes having a ball. LOL, count me in on that.

just jseting

rgds
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,175
  • Edited 2:04am Oct 13, 2016 12:10am | Edited 2:04am
my TAF mp3 list played this today

meaningful song..
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pity some of the song link gone dead..


TIP for FTI garden?
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Maybe Phil too.


dance bid offer
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dancing butterflies so beautiful.. nature is wonder

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Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,176
  • Edited 4:42am Oct 13, 2016 2:21am | Edited 4:42am
Quoting fti
{quote} Ahhh the dance. enjoy. lovely vfr dogfights. I still wondering. How they manage launch sidewinders on cannon range. anyway. mirages. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRkh9Icls2Q compliments of kapi Tan kinky. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EjqHxLtwSQ Thhe Blue Angels. tha man. How can anyone not love the fat sup up charlie 1 30? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tO_Sw3P5Bs the dance. regards
ahh very nice.
thanks

rgds

i always wonder, long time ago, why a machine of destruction and war, like the fighter jets, can be so beautiful. in fact, there is beautiful in almost all if not all, machines of destruction. is it mankind innate subliminal thoughts that have desire for ultimate destruction? no idea.


woah some boosters on the c-130. wonder howit feel ! wooo.

Inserted Video

remind me of this.

oh,
and your friend
http://pythonjoe.blogspot.sg/


watching this now,
Inserted Video

seems alot lessons for me


oops, work calls.
see how she goes..

cya later


wow very impressive video!
Inserted Video

this video shows other side of trump, not the jerk side that media portraying
the bigger the threat, the more smearing?
Fall in love with the process, and the outcome takes care of itself.
  • #56,177
  • Oct 13, 2016 4:38am Oct 13, 2016 4:38am
This morning game send 1 way then another then when dizzy whack..........me payin attention... nearly fooled me.......goin with flow seems better so far......but need to flow with em and not fight it... oh and be ready to adapt when necessary .......not always easy for me....

so not rigid trend rider now trying to pay attention... hope this is what FTI means by flowing........ what is it my brain sees?... mesa not sure.... eyeballing RoK all the time like a hawk...think I need a lie down .... phew...



Alex
check out the terrain - follow never lead
  • #56,178
  • Oct 13, 2016 9:18am Oct 13, 2016 9:18am
@FTI and all - what is your view in short/mid term on USDCAD? Need to make some decision on it sooner than later... Please let me know your thougths
  • #56,179
  • Oct 13, 2016 3:00pm Oct 13, 2016 3:00pm
Quoting agent005
@FTI and all - what is your view in short/mid term on USDCAD? Need to make some decision on it sooner than later... Please let me know your thougths
Hi agent005

i am sorry, that is not what we do...

just manage in the reality of NOW.

manage the risk and profit comes when ready.

AOW... only the enemy/opposition can provide the opportunity for success.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post9187321

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #56,180
  • Oct 13, 2016 4:59pm Oct 13, 2016 4:59pm
Quoting phil13
{quote} Hi agent005 i am sorry, that is not what we do... just manage in the reality of NOW. manage the risk and profit comes when ready. AOW... only the enemy/opposition can provide the opportunity for success. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...21#post9187321 regards Phil.
Hey Phil, yeah, I figured I wasn't asking correct question, too bad that crystal ball got lost

Let me rephrase it if I may - would any of you gays and gals go into Short USDCAD battle atm?

I know it's not one of the 3 kingdoms so I don't know if you would battle for it at all, I didn't get too far in my reading of this thread yet.

I actually starting to really love the idea of looking at trading as a battle, and I'm starting to grow as a General and Commander all in one as I don't feel anymore that I have to go into each and every battle
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