Attachments: (binned per thread starter's request) Trading system replication

(binned per thread starter's request) Trading system replication

#101
Oct 10, 2016 3:26pm Oct 10, 2016 3:26pm

janpec1000
Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 12,211 Posts

Quoting Kubiasty

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GBPUSD M5: {image} Counter-trend trade.

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Okay but the entry could be much more refined if you look at avarage volatility over last 20 or 30 candles. Those two major highs that you connected on trendline are ok, but there was much more substential data in past 30 candles connecting more relative trendline in terms of as closest historical data as possible. This is why always have in mind using multiple TFs. Its all about matrixing structures within the structures, the more you can downscale, the sooner you can be in entry, and thats all it is about the markets, those who are in soon can grab profits, those who are late are usually on wrong side.

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#102
Oct 10, 2016 4:10pm Oct 10, 2016 4:10pm

Kubiasty
Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,094 Posts

Quoting janpec1000

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{quote} Okay but the entry could be much more refined if you look at avarage volatility over last 20 or 30 candles. Those two major highs that you connected on trendline are ok, but there was much more substential data in past 30 candles connecting more relative trendline in terms of as closest historical data as possible. This is why always have in mind using multiple TFs. Its all about matrixing structures within the structures, the more you can downscale, the sooner you can be in entry, and thats all it is about the markets, those who are in...

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Ahhhh ! ok thanks

So Draw TRENDLINES on M5, then switch to M1 , for entry ? And DONT ENTRY if the candle breakout is too big ? right ?

#103
Oct 10, 2016 4:22pm Oct 10, 2016 4:22pm

janpec1000
Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 12,211 Posts

Quoting Kubiasty

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{quote} Ahhhh ! ok thanks So Draw TRENDLINES on M5, then switch to M1 , for entry ? And DONT ENTRY if the candle breakout is too big ? right ?

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Yes breakout should always be as close as possible to your trendline. Always observe the price action what is telling you. You dont need to be rocket scientist to do that, just put it in simple terms, if avarage movement per candle in structure was X and you get on breakout confirmation candle that was 2 or 3 X that is good sign to get the flow of market in that direction. Initiations need volatility increase, but then again there is no such thing as initiation since everything that happens in universe is relative to itself or its previous self. Once you grasp that concept you can understand that everthing around you moves in patterns, you can find patterns everywhere, and there is certain predictability around what pattern makes and how it responds. So in the end there is no such thing as initiation. Only reaction exists.

#104
Oct 10, 2016 4:24pm Oct 10, 2016 4:24pm

Kubiasty
Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,094 Posts

janpec1000
How about USDJPY?

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#105
Oct 10, 2016 4:30pm Oct 10, 2016 4:30pm

Kubiasty
Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,094 Posts

Quoting janpec1000

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{quote} Yes breakout should always be as close as possible to your trendline. Always observe the price action what is telling you. You dont need to be rocket scientist to do that, just put it in simple terms, if avarage movement per candle in structure was X and you get on breakout confirmation candle that was 2 or 3 X that is good sign to get the flow of market in that direction. Initiations need volatility increase, but then again there is no such thing as initiation since everything that happens in universe is relative to itself or its previous...

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Nice words

where did you learn this words

#106
Oct 10, 2016 4:33pm Oct 10, 2016 4:33pm

janpec1000
Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 12,211 Posts

Quoting Kubiasty

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janpec1000 How about USDJPY? {image}

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Look at flow of price along this down trend. You will see disconnect. If there is disconnect, redraw trendline. Otherwise youll be late in entry.

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#107
Oct 10, 2016 4:43pm Oct 10, 2016 4:43pm

janpec1000
Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 12,211 Posts

Quoting Kubiasty

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{quote} Nice words where did you learn this words ?

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Lets see 4 years of trading would be start, 100s of EAs developed, 100 of systems traded and tested, 100s of Matrix the movie rewatching. Should be a good start. Then the rest is putting it together on your own mind and understand why and how you can only trade patterns and why its so important that you make it mechanical, its mathematical equasion behind it that can make it work, or break it if you allow it to break.

Patterns can be found everywhere in universe, but mind that in markets traded ones can only be if there is statistical disadvantage against you in relative terms of something else. If you stack market time and event that has 99% of historical reliability it could not be traded profitably becouse everyone would be on same boat. You can only trade becouse you have oposite view of someone else in market which adds to liquidity. However you can still ride high % probability event, by using downscale of time to actually enter on lower % probability event where the market trades, and then use both of them to sharpen your entry move.
Whatever what macro-micro combo is doesnt matter. I trade breakouts, but there could be many more profitable systems trading anything else, as long as you shape everything around the system correctly to be mechanical. 99% of profitable traders are going to tell you there is only single way to profit from markets, single view on markets and thats where the error is. Why? Simply, this is very young science, only 30 years old, the active trading thats why it has many many bad informations. In 100 years it will adapt, but so will the market, and the strategies will also need to adapt.
10 years ago humans have shaped the market. Now algos are good part of equasion. 10 years from now who knows what will be. The only thing as trader that you can count on, is that you trade a pattern. And no matter the robot, human or alien they move in patterns, and thats only thing that you can mechanically profit from if you do it correct.

Here is the sad thing. Everyone knows that things move in patterns, repeating itself. A newbie trader can find something on chart that repeats, but finding profitable strategy is not only about that, and thats where the failure comes. Profitable trading means refining every aspect that relies on capital, entry, price and volatility. There is another aspect but....its something that human cannot have impact on and its irrelavant, if it happens your out.

#108
Oct 10, 2016 5:06pm Oct 10, 2016 5:06pm

Kubiasty
Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,094 Posts

janpec1000 thanks for your nice words.
Could you create video, how do you trade on Live account this strategy Daily trading ?

Please.. would be much easier to see it ; )

#109
Oct 10, 2016 5:25pm Oct 10, 2016 5:25pm

LuXing
Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Error 404: LuXing not found | 1,586 Posts

Quoting Kubiasty

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janpec1000 thanks for your nice words. Could you create video, how do you trade on Live account this strategy Daily trading ? Please.. would be much easier to see it ; )

Ignored

Hold your horses with this video stuff.
Put on some tunes (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=9189916#post9189916), study a lot and more, be patient and let the market come to you ;-))

LuXing

Wisdom begins in wonder

#110
Oct 10, 2016 11:02pm Oct 10, 2016 11:02pm

nellu90
| Joined Sep 2016 | Status: Trader | 3 Posts

Nice thread specially for newbie like me, thanks Janpec100 for starting this thread and taking so much of your time to explain things in simple words. I will be keen to read and follow things here

#111
Oct 11, 2016 3:27am Oct 11, 2016 3:27am

eddman
| Joined Mar 2016 | Status: Trader | 44 Posts

Thanks for bringing the system and your thoughts around it to us. I was wondering some things in regards to how you trade this system and what to focus on:
1. how much of your profit (in %) comes from trading this system with currencies vs stocks (you trade commodities, too?)
2. how much of your profit (in %) comes from trading this system counter trend, with trend vs no trend?
3. how much of your profit (in %) comes from trading this system 1:1 trades vs 1:X trades (RR ratio where X>3)?

I am asking these questions because from reading your posts it seems that most profit is coming from:
a) trading stocks
b) early session (and news) breakouts
c) trading with the trend
correct me if I am wrong please...

I appreciate that you are trying to explain the "smaller things" about trading this system, that's what will make all the difference. You are doing a good job, please keep it up. Although you are trading it purely mechanical, it's because you've trained your brain enough to actually "see" when the right pattern is setting up. To me that is "discretionary" because I don't (yet) grasp all the details needed to discard bad entries. I tried it yesterday, I replayed a couple of days (Ninjatrader) viewing 16 FX pairs and was not profitable. I took all trades coming up according to rules in your first post. So it think (like with all systems) alot of screen time practice is required.

Don't take it as critique, just my honest opinion, I will give it more time because I like trading smaller time frames, give me better "resolution"of what is happening.

cheers!

#112
Oct 11, 2016 4:31am Oct 11, 2016 4:31am

surfac
Joined Mar 2013 | Status: Trader | 134 Posts

I have a question, would you enter the trade when the candle closed below the trend line and take your loss or you would not enter at all?

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#113
Oct 11, 2016 5:01am Oct 11, 2016 5:01am

janpec1000
Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 12,211 Posts

Quoting eddman

Disliked

Thanks for bringing the system and your thoughts around it to us. I was wondering some things in regards to how you trade this system and what to focus on: 1. how much of your profit (in %) comes from trading this system with currencies vs stocks (you trade commodities, too?) 2. how much of your profit (in %) comes from trading this system counter trend, with trend vs no trend? 3. how much of your profit (in %) comes from trading this system 1:1 trades vs 1:X trades (RR ratio where X>3)? I am asking these questions because from reading your posts...

Ignored

Completly agree with all you said. You do need to practice the system, going trough tons of historical charts in order to train your eye to see structures and breakouts when they happen. That is why i started this thread so that traders can learn, otherwise i would just share the indicator to everyone and that would be it, if it would be that easy.

In regards to your questions its important to know that just becouse i make more profits in stocks or with trend that doesnt have to apply to you. If you manage to catch enough entries in FX and your acc size is decent you can make just as much only on FX. Your asking good questions but just saying its all relative to you, one can adapt by pulling correct strings. The most profitable trades without the doubt are trades taken in low volatility market and then pushing them trough high volatility market. Or trades that are taken from low volatility structure inside high volatility market moves on avarage. That is what by nature allows you better RR and just mathematically makes it more profitable. If you want to play it from strongest point you could focous only on that part and execute low volatility trades, that way even if you dont draw trendline precise or you catch breaout a bit late you still have odds better on your side.
Exactly lower TFs give you better view simply becouse you can execute more trades in short peroid of time. And then only thing that confirms you as profitable trader is not making 10k in one day, but making nice % of return over hundreds of taken trades. And then by replicating similar or even better results next month is what defines profitable trader, the more executions the better.

#114
Oct 11, 2016 5:02am Oct 11, 2016 5:02am

janpec1000
Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 12,211 Posts

Quoting surfac

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I have a question, would you enter the trade when the candle closed below the trend line and take your loss or you would not enter at all? {image}

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Hey yes that is short. If you use high as SL you would still be in trade, if you use middle rejection as SL then it would be stoped out.

#115
Oct 11, 2016 5:05am Oct 11, 2016 5:05am

janpec1000
Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 12,211 Posts

EU daily candle close today around here opens more downside likely. But then again who cares, EU is in snail volatility mode for past month not worth trading it most of time.

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