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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #741
  • Oct 7, 2016 6:54am Oct 7, 2016 6:54am
Quoting Lock
13:39 +1GMT I period is inside H so current J is an attempted breakout downside. If it will fail back to the poc at 24316/32.
first possible natural target 23775 (period I high, opposite side of the balance.) If we consider J attempt failed below I period low (2339).
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  • #742
  • Oct 7, 2016 7:03am Oct 7, 2016 7:03am
Quoting Lock
{quote} first possible natural target 23775 (period I high, opposite side of the balance.) If we consider J attempt failed below I period low (2339).
PreUS opened with more than 330 pips of gap downside. New partecipants stepped in, so take old situation (failed breakout downside) with new approach.
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  • #743
  • Oct 7, 2016 7:11am Oct 7, 2016 7:11am
Current situation before news in a daily profile chart where any letter is 5 pips. As you see both Tokyo session and GB session are inside the daily value area. Its limits above and below work as support and resistance. Any meaningfull action need acceptaion below or above current value area. Note the composite POC working as a pole of attraction for price.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #744
  • Oct 7, 2016 7:48am Oct 7, 2016 7:48am
Quoting Lock
Current situation before news in a daily profile chart where any letter is 5 pips. As you see both Tokyo session and GB session are inside the daily value area. Its limits above and below work as support and resistance. Any meaningfull action need acceptaion below or above current value area. Note the composite POC working as a pole of attraction for price. {image}

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 17 KB
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  • #745
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:14am Oct 7, 2016 8:14am
15:14 +1GMT
A, B and C period all up and down open: total lack of conviction in any direction. A C poor high at 23895 (a couple of pips above Sydney close). C for now inside bar of B.

In the meanwhile USDX retraced back to today open.
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  • #746
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:26am Oct 7, 2016 8:26am
15:26+1GMT
less than 5 min to go for Pit session. C low at half back plus round 2350.
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  • #747
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:37am Oct 7, 2016 8:37am
Quoting Lock
Current situation before news in a daily profile chart where any letter is 5 pips. As you see both Tokyo session and GB session are inside the daily value area. Its limits above and below work as support and resistance. Any meaningfull action need acceptaion below or above current value area. Note the composite POC working as a pole of attraction for price. {image}
Back to the POC at 24316 (At the pip)

It's a common return to the mean situation.Do you understand this game?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 18 KB
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  • #748
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:48am Oct 7, 2016 8:48am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Back to the POC at 24316 (At the pip) It's a common return to the mean situation.Do you understand this game? {image}
But it doesn't always work that way doesn't it?
  • #749
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:50am Oct 7, 2016 8:50am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 12:05 +1GMT ... Note that GB already made 2 minus development at 23165-23715 and 2391-24255. Carry this info forward. Note that current "hypothetical" pit session gap down is more than 300 pips right now.
Quoting Lock
{quote} So, the first minus development 23165-23715 has been corrected completely by H period that also retrace some pips of the second one at 2391-24255 up to 2397.....
Also the second GB minus development from this morning has been corrected during this return to the mean action.
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  • #750
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:52am Oct 7, 2016 8:52am
Quoting nixdem
{quote} But it doesn't always work that way doesn't it?
Absolutely. It depends on the situation. In a rotational environment ruled by weak hands a similar event is clearly more probable than in a different situation ruled by other timeframes and maybe in a directional action (trend)
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  • #751
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:56am Oct 7, 2016 8:56am
Note that we are in an attempted breakout above preUS C period high. C period has not a good low (half back plus round 2350). But if this action will be accepted above it could prevale over the weakness below. Let's see period B and C. And watch out because anyhow we are working against major weekly/daily trend and against a huge gap downside form yesterday pit low. If it will continue higher in this way without correction downside, it will be "only" a short covering.
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  • #752
  • Oct 7, 2016 9:21am Oct 7, 2016 9:21am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 11:15 +1GMT So it's breaking below D balance as expected (the break was expected not the direction, as written) Monitor for continuation. We are now at Tokyo open 23875. For continuation we would like to see price accepted below it. I forgot that D period high was also at 2451 half back. So a double weakness there. Carry this information forward.
And here we are after some hours back to this notable weakness left by GB session upside... Only tagged at the pip by current action and consequently still weak. (weaker than before)
Anyhow, as yesterday for now we are in a full weak environment.
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  • #753
  • Oct 7, 2016 9:24am Oct 7, 2016 9:24am
2451 taken out. Now we have the top of the value area around 2470 level. If it break it and find acceptation above it, then "God save the Queen"*. If rejected then return to the mean (POC at 24316)

*Well, I mean, maybe the Queen will be happy to see a massacre of those acting against pound... Who knows?
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  • #754
  • Oct 7, 2016 10:21am Oct 7, 2016 10:21am
Quoting Lock
2451 taken out. Now we have the top of the value area around 2470 level. If it break it and find acceptation above it, then "God save the Queen"*. If rejected then return to the mean (POC at 24316) ....
So it went up to the top of the value area 2470, it failed there then went back to the POC 24316. All this at the pip.

clap clap clap.

Now the fact that it did all this at the pip means that we still are in very weak environment. And this is the important information here.

Note that pit session didn't test nor the high of Tokyo nor the one of GB.

Note also that currently we have a little excess of 4 pips above (D period selling tale) and a huge excess, above too, made by the pit gap downside.

Generally a double excess is a must do trade. The problem here is that we are very close to the composite poc that is very attractive for any weak price action. Anyhow, let's see if it could work downside or if the poc will prevail.
Remember that we are in a weak environment so if something exogenous will occur it will be a knife in the butter.
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  • #755
  • Oct 7, 2016 10:50am Oct 7, 2016 10:50am
A E periods poor low. And we have the weak preUS C period low at round 2350. We have a gap downside and an excess with the D selling tail. I'm not saying it will go there for sure because in such an environment everything is possible specially with a so close poc upside. I'm saying the odds are in favour of this possibility and, if you are selling from the top of the value, maybe you could scale out some and attempt a continuation for the remaining of the position.

Note anyhow that current E period is the last one for London, so it could be tricky because most of this action could be only liquidation of opened positions and not new money selling.

Quoting Lock
15:26+1GMT less than 5 min to go for Pit session. C low at half back plus round 2350.
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  • #756
  • Oct 7, 2016 11:03am Oct 7, 2016 11:03am
Quoting Lock
.... Note anyhow that current E period is the last one for London, so it could be tricky because most of this action could be only liquidation of opened positions and not new money selling. {quote}
And in fact it has been totally retraced back to the POC. Tricky as always in the last days.
So I'm off.
Have a nice continuation and a good weekend, hoping for something "normal" next week.
Best L.
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  • #757
  • Edited 2:16am Oct 10, 2016 1:45am | Edited 2:16am
08:49 + 1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Today is US bank holiday and untill 11:00 +1GMT will be Japan bank holiday. This is the main information today. Anyhow we are in a weekly/daily trend down (one timeframing downside action) so this is the second main info here. The main POC is at 24317/32 and this is the third main piece of information considering that this is the only pole of attraction below the only other composite POC at 2643 (more than 250 pips above here.)

Friday GB session was a double distribution session: take and consider any distribution as a separate session. The upper distribution is at 2423-24605, while the lower one is at 2312-23975. Price is currently inside the lower one. GB will probably open inside Friday total range (2226-2477) but it should be important to see the price location related to these two little distributions in order to evaluate price orientation. Currently is inside the lower one.
Let's see if wll have acceptation of it and/or below it: in this case we could have continuation downside. If instead we will have rejection of it and eventually acceptation of the upper one we could experience balance and eventually some sort of retracement.

I suggest anyway to wait for tomorrow to see with a better perspective what is really going on because the US and Tokyo holiday could seriously falsify the outcome of current price action.

Best L.
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  • #758
  • Oct 10, 2016 2:02am Oct 10, 2016 2:02am
09:03+1GMT
GB opens exactly at Friday GB unchanged at 23666 and inside the lower GB distribution: initial acceptation of it and tests above and/or below it are expected (2312-23975)
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  • #759
  • Oct 10, 2016 3:32am Oct 10, 2016 3:32am
Quoting Lock
09:03+1GMT GB opens exactly at Friday GB unchanged at 23666 and inside the lower GB distribution: initial acceptation of it and tests above and/or below it are expected (2312-23975)
10:34+1GMT

C period high tags exactly the upperdistribution low (2423-24605). Current D low is at round 2400. So for now we have acceptation above lowr distribution 2312-23975, but the GB session low is weak as it is a tag of the Tokyio session low (23655) and D low is weak as round number tag 2400: weak environment as expected considering the Tokyo bank holiday.
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  • #760
  • Oct 10, 2016 4:03am Oct 10, 2016 4:03am
11:03 +1GMT

Tokyo close at 2417 and D period inside bar of C period: balance and possible breakout from here. Main composite POC at 2433. Tokyo/GB composite low at 23654.
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