When Price is UP, buy; when Price is Down, sell short...

Update on the above EURUSD Dly alert:

1. entered buy but price reversed,
2. closed out manually for a loss

​Now price has formed a short entry signal which;

1. conforms to the W+4hrs=Down trading bias for next week, and
2. that signal becomes now a Trend-following [short] signal.
3. no chart posted, please refer to your own daily chart signal

the 2 x 4hr charts of CADJPY and GBPJPY below shows my buy entries for the week just completed which had a W+4hr=uP trading bias.

1. only buy signals was selected partly because both these Dailies were trading above their LSH's.
2. on the CADJPY i have demarcated the individual days with white dotted vertical lines.
3. this was done to show that everything is inter-connected, the Dly & 4hrs & Wkly & Mthly... the Big Picture if u like.
4. the highlighted arrows & X's shows the signals that prompted my entries. i chose to only take the 1st three signals.
5. also shown on the charts is approximate current gain in pips and the approximate gain in pips should price activate the Stops.
6. the 4hr signals on your chart maybe different, don't stress just trade your own signals that price produces.

this Method is now completed, infact, it was completed a long time ago.
​therefore, i think i don't have anything more to add to these Trend-following Methods with the different Trend-following and Counter-trend Strategies.

the last 10 pages or so explains everything in detail in response to questions of the traders that made the effort to understand my method... to all who participated in this thread, i say Thank You, it really was a pleasure to interact with all of you and make this method with its different strategies come alive, mainly due to your desire for success... may you have the success that you seek in this life and the next, aameen.

i may still pop-in from time-to-time.

I may have missed some points.

For trend change to take place on Higher TF, Mth and Wk. Must Higher TF price close above/below last LSL/LSH before we can confirm trend change ?

Or

Higher TF price has break above/below last LSL/LSH decisively but price has not close for the Wk/Mth. Can we confirm trend change too ?

To my understanding. You are watching higher timeframe to check direction. To do so you have to check last closed candle and it will point you either up or down. From this point you have general strategy where price can go on lower timeframe. If price is respecting close from higher timeframe then you are just following trend otherwise it need to close below/above LSH or LSL to make some countertrend trades.


I would like to add one thing. If you need to be sure and confirm something then yes wait for close but you can also just send one "probe" to test if break from LSL/LSH is really something worth paying attention.

I hope that I understood you questions.

Thank you Scrabie

This is one of the best thread. Clear and concise on trend bias (with flexibility aka 'probe') and how to enter market.

I`m glad that I was able to help with your questions ;-)

well done master Scrabie, well done indeed.. .

EURUSD trades before the storm.
please note all of these shorts is at risk of their SL's being activated.
i recommend closing of existing trades and no new trades until after the manipulation effect has receded.

Hi all again,

I am abit confused. Is there difference between GEOT (General Overall Trend) and Trading Bias (based on last Weekly, Monthly closed price) ?

hi compro99,

yes there is a difference... in short::

1. the GEOT=Trend following... M+D=uP and Dly generated Buy Signal=last Dly bar closed uP
2. Trading Bias=Counter trend...M+D=uP but Dly gave Sell Signal= closed below LSL

​but, our Trading bias may be the same as the GEOT when the 2 signals co-incide or agree, please do not get stuck in this terminology, the important parts are the combo's such as the M+D & the W+4hrs
...when the last completed bar of the lower tf agree with the last completed bar of the higher tf then a trading signal is given, in other words...

...and when the lower tf closes above its LSH then a counter trend trading buy signal is given because higher tf has an opposite bar close. [down close],
...and when the lower tf closes below its LSL then a counter trend short signal is given because higher tf has an opposite bar close. [up close]

feedback:
EURUSD trading bias has now reversed... all previous shorts were closed out for net gains. 2 of them their protective SL's were activated for gains and the higher short i closed out manually after the ct trading signal was given by yesterdays bar close...also went long as can be seen in the chart.
the white arrow to the right indicates the correct entry [ideal] after the daily bar closed...my buy is late because i opened my trading platform late, nevertheless, the signal is still valid.
from a trend following perspective the EURUSD has been most frustrating to trade because of all the legalised crooks of the 2 currencies involved.

the GBPCAD is still in trend following mode while the GBPJPY is in counter trend mode.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

and here is my Daily reading of my 2 favourites thus far, the USDCAD & EURGBP
also included is the EURAUD.
just follow the signals, we may have a few losses before the big gains roll in.

TIP:

1. before i enter a trade i accept the very real possibility that the trade may end up in a loss,
2. so, i choose a trade size that i'm comfortable with for this account should a loss be the outcome.
3. this mindset now releases me emotionally from that trade,
4. with the result my focus stay clear and uncluttered.
5. the next day: if the trade is still alive and moved as anticipated, i then go into trade management mode and move SL and/or enter new trade.
6. if the trade resulted in a loss then i check to see if this new close generated an opposite trading signal, if yes, then a new trade is entered with the same mindset acceptance... win or loose.
7. ​emotional detachment should be the outcome of a winning method and strategy. ​

​

Thanks Sunshine for a great thread, you've given a lot of your time to it. I've just finished reading most of it.
I think I'll spend the next couple of weeks just watching line charts as they unfold (to get used to it).

Mean while I have one question:
In post 180 you mention trading with respect to the open, high & low of the monthly or weekly timeframe; you call it "HOLO".
Would you mind explaining how you would trade using that?

hello sunshine, I'm so very busy and rarely online...
but still following one of the best threads in FF ..... When Price is UP, buy; when Price is Down, sell short....

hello Trade.Time, and thank you for your appreciation.


the HOLO just refers to High+OPEN and Low+Open of a timeframe.

as i was mentioning and agreeing with trader gopips because he said when price is above open, buy and when price is below open, sell.
so what i meant by HOLO is this...

1. price is above Dly Open and above Dly High...buy
2. price is below Dly Open and below Dly Low...short
3. for example: if the M+D combo is down and price is below Dly open, then stay short.

u will notice that as we progressed through the method, i dropped some, modified others and even added new concepts and strategies. give more attention to the last 10 pages or so.

thank you Ramaparasu for taking the time to pop-in and for your kind words, i wish u success for this world and the next.

i still have some open trades in EURGBP & GBPCAD amongst others that have some handsome gains off good entries, if anyone is interested to see those entries then i will post the charts, or any other instrument to check if my reading of the charts is 'correct' {please state your timeframe u interested in, thank you. }

Thanks Sunshine for this thread!
What do you think about USDCAD to go up? It meets your strategy (all criteria). My only concern is Oil is up, too!

you're welcome Fadhl, and yes, USDCAD gave Wkly continuation signal bar and the 4hrs entry chart produced a buy entry.
do not be concerned about Oil, there is no rule that the Loonie and Oil should move opposite.