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The Really Useless Thread

  • #143,961
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:36am Oct 7, 2016 8:36am
Quoting hoom
{quote} odds are definitely very high regarding that expectations are met and USD leg would start more firmly but it will be very frustrating if it gets short circuited and we remain stuck in ups and downs for infinite time.
...that was one of the key points on this iterations @IMARICH1 (@Fisher755 @primejarvis and others that express some concerns about the timing, etc).

Look at the tittle of this mid term iteration:
" Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators"

I understand where are you coming from. We are in for a mid term swing and that take a hell of a time the if you are tracking daily/intraday until it pans out (or flop). Thats the point you need to put in perspective. Its extremely hard to understand TIME in a static chart ...its on of the hardest thing in trading in ANY TF...

This is the latest update of the short term ebb and flow (if you plot the mid term chart is extremely clean and we haven't trade over a handful of bars...move hasnt even started yet) for this leg we made a couple of week ago:

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Here is the latest update for those who are a getting lost in translation. Did you update the outlooks (if you change them obviously? Do you see where is iteration 19 price wise? can you see where 19c is? ... Are we in red, yellow or Green in the maps (yours of course) ?, check the cheatsheet between patience, noise and risk? ....

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In a nutshell:
You want cheap tickets? you pay the price in patience and noise. You want momentum quick runners? you play with high risk? ... where do you think we are ?

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,962
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:39am Oct 7, 2016 8:39am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ...that was one of the key points on this iterations @IMARICH1 (@Fisher755 @primejarvis and others that express some concerns about the timing, etc). Look at the tittle of this mid term iteration: " Retrace or Reversal PART II - Frustration, Price & Indicators" I understand where are you coming from. We are in for a mid term swing and that take a hell of a time the if you are tracking daily/intraday until it pans out (or flop). Thats the...
We are in yellow atm. No cheap tickets, but sitting tight. ( maybe we get cheap tickets once again, who knows).
PVSRA
  • #143,963
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:44am Oct 7, 2016 8:44am
i dont know about other's sisse but i am following the cheap tickets and ready to pay in patience ... and i believe you are also on the same boat ....

in e/u we have not yet started the move this is my thinking i dont know how much i am right ... but i feel i am right ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,964
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:46am Oct 7, 2016 8:46am
Bull norm, target 1.1515
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  • #143,965
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:49am Oct 7, 2016 8:49am
Quoting sisse
In a nutshell: You want cheap tickets? you pay the price in patience and noise. You want momentum quick runners? you play with high risk? ... where do you think we are ? sisse
we are in momentum quick runners !

no cheap tickets but time shortcut and higher risk in play
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,966
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:54am Oct 7, 2016 8:54am
We will maybe get the opportunity again to load up more at qte cheap tickets.

The time it is ranging we collect the small swap every night. It become a little bit too.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,967
  • Oct 7, 2016 8:56am Oct 7, 2016 8:56am
Watch-out the European close again from the UK talking heads flooding the wires with pure madness. Every day this week is a round of headlines, they are pretty much ignoring the warning signals overnight in the Pound....

Sterling flash crash may become a bit more than a 'flash' one ...Lots of noise in the street of last and large backers in GU are packing bags until BOE say something different ...

sisse


Quoting hoom
{quote} we are in momentum quick runners ! no cheap tickets but time shortcut and higher risk in play
No we are in Cheap tickets (green) in the mid term thats why you are getting confuse .... on the short term we are in yellow ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,968
  • Oct 7, 2016 9:00am Oct 7, 2016 9:00am
Quoting Pharm0r
Bull norm, target 1.1515 {image}
We are still in Sell Outlook, bro. Might be good retrace up to chep tickets once again.
Beside that, with all the Brexit game as sisse mentioned earlier, ECB might lower down hawkish tone in the near future, so I will sell at extreme once again if we get there.
For now, with all the risk in play might be safer to sell EJ.
As we have seen today with GBP ( I did not see , I was sleeping), sometimes FA takes over TA and as far as I undersand from what I learned so far here TA serves only as entry method in cheap ticket areas.
PVSRA
  • #143,969
  • Oct 7, 2016 9:02am Oct 7, 2016 9:02am
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} We are still in Sell Outlook, bro. Might be good retrace up to chep tickets once again. Beside that, with all the Brexit game as sisse mentioned earlier, ECB might lower down hawkish tone in the near future, so I will sell at extreme once again if we get there. For now, with all the risk in play might be safer to sell EJ. As we have seen today with GBP ( I did not see , I was sleeping), sometimes FA takes over TA and as far as I undersand from what I learned so far here TA serves only as entry method in cheap ticket areas.
So the bulls are irrelevant? I just told you where you might find those cheaper tickets if you're a bear
  • #143,970
  • Oct 7, 2016 9:03am Oct 7, 2016 9:03am
Quoting sisse
... the 'no hikes FED' bulls may have raised/or raising their hands after this report and that is the only door for something else today .... sisse
....BULLISH notes in the soft NFP the rising participation rate and the rising hourly wage rate, these enough to keep Dec hikes in play and now US markets can start sweating the Nov. 8 elections. If HRC wins we have Santa Claus rally into Dec regardless of a Dec hike; if DJT wins, well, not...Sunday's debate result has a slack Monday (a long weekend for some of us) to be batted around in the press - just watch the MXN peso....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,971
  • Oct 7, 2016 9:06am Oct 7, 2016 9:06am
Quoting sisse
No we are in Cheap tickets (green) in the mid term thats why you are getting confuse .... on the short term we are in yellow ... sisse
My bad ! mid term that is, I got confused .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,972
  • Oct 7, 2016 9:06am Oct 7, 2016 9:06am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}....BULLISH notes in the soft NFP the rising participation rate and the rising hourly wage rate, these enough to keep Dec hikes in play and now US markets can start sweating the Nov. 8 elections. If HRC wins we have Santa Claus rally into Dec regardless of a Dec hike; if DJT wins, well, not...Sunday's debate result has a slack Monday (a long weekend for some of us) to be batted around in the press - just watch the MXN peso....
Fool, what do you see in futures and options as far as market positioning on hikes
  • #143,973
  • Oct 7, 2016 9:06am Oct 7, 2016 9:06am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} So the bulls are irrelevant?
Only on my map. You are trading your map that might be different than mine. I was just expressing my point of view ( as a kind of brainstornming).
PVSRA
  • #143,974
  • Oct 7, 2016 9:08am Oct 7, 2016 9:08am
Momentum is my green lines, Yellow is the difference in projection from last low. LL and LH all the way here. Brown is trendline. I will try to get in with additional position if price bounce it that area.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,975
  • Oct 7, 2016 9:21am Oct 7, 2016 9:21am
Quoting Pharm0r
Fool, what do you see in futures and options as far as market positioning on hikes
without presenting any evidence I'd say a Dec ffr hike is priced in pretty well and now markets will be sweating other macro & exogenous issues. US elections the major one but also new bleeding from the Brexit/eurozone banking wounds. If the latter really roil things up in a protracted way, then the Dec ffr hike gets pulled away (Charlie Brown, Lucy, football) but that would be the status quo and just another lash of the uncertainty whip.

Sunday debate the next easy to spot binary event.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,976
  • Oct 7, 2016 9:25am Oct 7, 2016 9:25am
Quoting Earleone
Momentum is my green lines, Yellow is the difference in projection from last low. LL and LH all the way here. Brown is trendline. I will try to get in with additional position if price bounce it that area. {image}
Here, my map. With instructions for use LOL.
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PVSRA
  • #143,977
  • Oct 7, 2016 9:26am Oct 7, 2016 9:26am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}without presenting any evidence I'd say a Dec ffr hike is priced in pretty well and now markets will be sweating other macro & exogenous issues. US elections the major one but also new bleeding from the Brexit/eurozone banking wounds. If the latter really roil things up in a protracted way, then the Dec ffr hike gets pulled away (Charlie Brown, Lucy, football) but that would be the status quo and just another lash of the uncertainty whip. Sunday debate the next easy to spot binary event.
Looks to me they're pricing for Dec hike (or none FY16)

NFP didn't clear it up for me as I hoped it would- more range to go
  • #143,978
  • Oct 7, 2016 10:16am Oct 7, 2016 10:16am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Looks to me they're pricing for Dec hike (or none FY16) NFP didn't clear it up for me as I hoped it would- more range to go
It's a done deal mate.

Only an unscheduled unexpected event will change it. There is very little alternatives for that because if Risk is trigger (via European Banks, terrorist, brexiters or etc) is all risk off favour Dollar .... only the US shooting themselves in the foot voting for the random guy could do it but even then it will take a few months until we see if he will walk the talk or if its just populism for the campaign .... by then hikes will be a done deal too..

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,979
  • Oct 7, 2016 10:42am Oct 7, 2016 10:42am
Bond Yield are going up after NFP 2 year Notes Price making new low.

Attached Image
  • #143,980
  • Oct 7, 2016 11:27am Oct 7, 2016 11:27am
Quoting sisse
{quote} It's a done deal mate. Only an unscheduled unexpected event will change it. There is very little alternatives for that because if Risk is trigger (via European Banks, terrorist, brexiters or etc) is all risk off favour Dollar .... only the US shooting themselves in the foot voting for the random guy could do it but even then it will take a few months until we see if he will walk the talk or if its just populism for the campaign .... by then hikes will be a done deal too.. sisse
I agree 100%, and I'm trading for November / December, however; I think the market is split (when looked at through options/futures for dollar/euro/spx)
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