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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #701
  • Oct 6, 2016 7:23am Oct 6, 2016 7:23am
Quoting giveachance
what a tight slap cable has got today. road is open for 1.2400 now
Well unless the weekly trend down will stop everything is possible downside. My only fear, as an intra day trader* is a sharp retracement here and there and, more than this, a grinding correction as yesterday. These sort of day are very complex generally.
Best L.

*flat before overnight.
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  • #702
  • Oct 6, 2016 7:36am Oct 6, 2016 7:36am
B inside bar of A period: attempted breakout upside by C period. Note the poor low at A B lows (2633 level).
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  • #703
  • Oct 6, 2016 7:54am Oct 6, 2016 7:54am
Quoting Lock
B inside bar of A period: attempted breakout upside by C period. Note the poor low at A B lows (2633 level).
Here you are down there: now it's a cluster poor low because C low only tagged it, so it is even weaker than before. Carry this info forward.
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  • #704
  • Oct 6, 2016 8:02am Oct 6, 2016 8:02am
D period low at half back 26445. Note also 26355 open price: A B and C all up and down it. Extrordinary weak environment for now.
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  • #705
  • Oct 6, 2016 8:07am Oct 6, 2016 8:07am
Quoting Lock
D period low at half back 26445. Note also 26355 open price: A B and C all up and down it. Extrordinary weak environment for now.
Removed but note D high at round 2650. Carry this info forward too (even if we are in a down trend so it is less important than the weaknesses left below)
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  • #706
  • Oct 6, 2016 8:10am Oct 6, 2016 8:10am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Here you are down there: now it's a cluster poor low because C low only tagged it, so it is even weaker than before. Carry this info forward.
Taken out. Do you understand this game? This first attempt downside was to remove the cluster poor low A B C period lows. Now if there is something more we need an other passage here and a continuation. If not: balance and/or retracement.
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  • #707
  • Oct 6, 2016 8:23am Oct 6, 2016 8:23am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Removed but note D high at round 2650. Carry this info forward too (even if we are in a down trend so it is less important than the weaknesses left below)
An here we are again. I mean: it's only trading money, nothing more. Watch out if you do not know this sort of games.
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  • #708
  • Oct 6, 2016 8:31am Oct 6, 2016 8:31am
27 pips of range for current pit session. Too narrow to remain like this. Maybe we will have to wait some but it should unfold from here: as a correction or as a continuation, or at least as an extension of current balance.

E last period for London.
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  • #709
  • Oct 6, 2016 9:01am Oct 6, 2016 9:01am
An other grinding day, unfortunately... E and F period lows at half back 2643
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  • #710
  • Oct 6, 2016 9:14am Oct 6, 2016 9:14am
Short covering continues grinding. I'm off. Last pit sessions were very similar one each other: lack of partecipation and conviction, generally retracing inventories too short... Anyhow. I'm off if nothing happens in the next 30 min.
Best L.
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  • #711
  • Edited 9:42am Oct 6, 2016 9:26am | Edited 9:42am
Quoting Lock
An other grinding day, unfortunately... E and F period lows at half back 2643
And here we are, again... What a surprise! This market is very impressive!

Please remember this:

Quoting Lock
{quote} Taken out. Do you understand this game? This first attempt downside was to remove the cluster poor low A B C period lows. Now if there is something more we need an other passage here and a continuation. If not: balance and/or retracement.
ABC cluster was at 2633 level. If you will not see price there again quickly this session, as written 3 periods ago, will end in a balance or in a balance with some more correction above. If you will see price here and acceptation below it we could experience a new low for today.
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  • #712
  • Oct 6, 2016 9:50am Oct 6, 2016 9:50am
Unfortunately G period high is at current hb, again. So, I don't know. As written we are in a weekly/daily trend down so references are not equal: those above are less important of those below but anyhow are significant in such a weak environment.

for MP "experts" only:
So... Right now we have a 7 letters POC for this pit session, and in order to move down the current POC we have 8 periods to spend plus current one. So it has to move in the next 2 periods to build a new bigger POC downside, otherwise it will be impossible and if the POC will not move lower the value will remain here: in this case any further action downside will be below value and consequently short in the hole.
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  • #713
  • Oct 6, 2016 10:08am Oct 6, 2016 10:08am
Ok. G high at round 2650 and H high at hb 26465.* No way out for now and I'm too tired so I'm off. Have a nice continuation. Best L.

*watch out if it will go lower from here without corrections...
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  • #714
  • Oct 6, 2016 5:46pm Oct 6, 2016 5:46pm
well.... mr Lock... any explanation about this flash crash??

590 pips over one candle in 1H TF??

with no news..
  • #715
  • Oct 6, 2016 9:56pm Oct 6, 2016 9:56pm
Quoting lolik79
well.... mr Lock... any explanation about this flash crash?? 590 pips over one candle in 1H TF?? with no news..
Yes, and I made this hypothesis more than 15 hours ago: exogenous event.

Quoting Lock
Pit session opened with more than 90 pips of downside gap from yesterday low at 27285. Now it could do this: balance here retracing some of the gap (inventories very very short) and then balance. retracing some and then continue lower. continue lower "immediately" fail completely here and retracing everything up to yesterday prominent poc at 27495. For a complete failure we need something similar in the USDX...
Quoting Lock
Then finally, there is the possibility of an exogenous event, something unpredictable that could change the natural course of events.
It was the first time I was doing such hypothesis in the last weeks because the overall condition was clearly very emotional and in this kind of environment a news, a rumor or what ever can cause very emotional reaction. Also the weekly/daily trend was and is downwards, one timeframing lower, as written in all the last reports.
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  • #716
  • Oct 6, 2016 10:05pm Oct 6, 2016 10:05pm
Quoting Lock
...for MP "experts" only: So... Right now we have a 7 letters POC for this pit session, and in order to move down the current POC we have 8 periods to spend plus current one.
Quoting Lock
So it has to move in the next 2 periods to build a new bigger POC downside, otherwise it will be impossible and if the POC will not move lower the value will remain here: in this case any further action downside will be below value and consequently short in the hole.
Quoting Lock
Ok. G high at round 2650 and H high at hb 26465.* No way out for now and I'm too tired so I'm off. Have a nice continuation. Best L. *watch out if it will go lower from here without corrections...
Anyone selling this should now be short in the hole. Specially if upcoming sessions will insist downside piling on this emotion. Obviously it is not a science and I could be wrong. Also from the perspective of an intra day trader this is not so important because, as written, an intra day trader is flat before overnight. So for me the game is only during GB and US sessions. Let's see.
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  • #717
  • Oct 6, 2016 10:10pm Oct 6, 2016 10:10pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I said this 15 days back and I continue to hold the view that 1.26 will be tested. gbp will not rally untill all the bottom pickers trading on high leverage are down and out. 1.24-1.25 is where I think it will stop. beyond that would be too much. 1.20 would signal a recession and a bad one for UK in next year
Quoting giveachance
what a tight slap cable has got today. road is open for 1.2400 now
As a longer timeframe trader and macro analyst giveachance made a perfect evaluation of the current situation. A deserved applause for him.

Best L.
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  • #718
  • Oct 6, 2016 11:21pm Oct 6, 2016 11:21pm
08:21 +1GMT
EARLY MORNING REPORT

First of all the USDX broke upside above the top of the 10.05 inside day balance and managed to retrace both September (96.33) and August high (96.52) leaving behind the major weekly bracket half back at 96.22. Above we have now only July high at 97.57. This obviously influenced the course of the current pound break downside and could continue to influence it.

A very important note is about China. All what you have seen during this week occurred during China bank holiday. The major moves infact took place during overnight while GB and US sessions simply followed overnight action or attempt a retracement of it. Consequently next week could be important in order to evaluate this market with a different partecipant back in to it.

About current situation from a narrower perspective I would invite any day trader to be as prudent as possible because as you have seen we are in a very emotional environment and normal references could be easily overshooted. So watch out is the best synthesis of this early morning report: if you have not enough information to trade there is no shame in not trading at all, waiting for more and better information.

Note that current Tokyo session is balancing around the new formed POC at 2432 and its current low is a weak one at round 2350. If Tokyo will close around current POC we will have a huge GB gap downside: as a form of excess a gap should be fully respected. A retracement of such a big gap during the first GB session will be a very rare event. But we are in a rare events environment: and this should lead anyone to have more caution than normal.

As written the last part of the pit session occurred below value, starting from 2 very weak references: a weak high at round 2650 and a weak period high at half back 26465. So keep in mind that those who act below these references were short in the hole, possibly, and surely weak hands. If following pit sessions will insist downside they could produce inventories extremely short that before or after should lead to a notable correction.
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  • #719
  • Oct 7, 2016 12:17am Oct 7, 2016 12:17am
09:14 +1GMT
GB opens with a gap downside of more than 200 pips. It is now above the new formed POC at 2432 and current high is at round 2450. Up and down open price at 2444.
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  • #720
  • Oct 7, 2016 1:07am Oct 7, 2016 1:07am
10:07 +1GMT

GB still up and down open and around new formed POC at 2432 (where we also have current B period low)
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