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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #681
  • Oct 5, 2016 12:14pm Oct 5, 2016 12:14pm
It was low confidence all day long. Nothing changed from this morning. It is grinding upside from the Tokyo spike down. Now it seems a failure above balance but it is very very tricky. In any case I'm off if it will continue higher. All what you have seen is short covering and nothing more.
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  • #682
  • Oct 5, 2016 12:43pm Oct 5, 2016 12:43pm
H period tagged yesterday pit open at 2760. It is one timeframing higher as a session and it is totally against any other trend. It can continue higher but it is very risky from my point of view. Consequently I'm off. Have a nice continuation. Best L.
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  • #683
  • Oct 5, 2016 1:13pm Oct 5, 2016 1:13pm
Time for some upside now. GBP's fall has been stopped and gains are likely for the next couple weeks.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #684
  • Edited 1:58am Oct 6, 2016 1:43am | Edited 1:58am
08:48 +1GMT (edit untill 08:58)
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Sometimes a chart could do better of a lot of words. What happened yesterday is a perfect example.

What I was writing yesterday evening:

Quoting Lock
It was low confidence all day long. Nothing changed from this morning. It is grinding upside from the Tokyo spike down. Now it seems a failure above balance but it is very very tricky. In any case I'm off if it will continue higher. All what you have seen is short covering and nothing more.
Quoting Lock
H period tagged yesterday pit open at 2760. It is one timeframing higher as a session and it is totally against any other trend. It can continue higher but it is very risky from my point of view. Consequently I'm off. Have a nice continuation. Best L.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 96 KB


Now, again, tonight Tokyo action was clearly liquidation of the weak hands action upside. We are still close to the composite POC at 2733. ANd right now we are inside yesterday GB session range. If it will open inside it (26914-27425) initial acceptation of it and eventually tests above and/or below it are expected. If instead in these last Tokyo ection we will move below 26914 we could open with a GB gap downside and you know the rules in that case.
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  • #685
  • Oct 6, 2016 1:52am Oct 6, 2016 1:52am
Quoting Temujin
Time for some upside now. GBP's fall has been stopped and gains are likely for the next couple weeks.
The early morning report solve the issue about what happened yesterday. The problem for many traders is to consider only price: price is only an advertisement mechanism (JD). The way a market move is far more complex to understand but is fundamental to have a correct visualization of what is really going on in a market.
Best L.
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  • #686
  • Oct 6, 2016 2:16am Oct 6, 2016 2:16am
Quoting Lock
08:48 +1GMT (edit untill 08:58) EARLY MORNING REPORT Sometimes a chart could do better of a lot of words. What happened yesterday is a perfect example. What I was writing yesterday evening: {quote} {quote} {image} Now, again, tonight Tokyo action was clearly liquidation of the weak hands action upside. We are still close to the composite POC at 2733. Add right now we are inside yesterday GB session range. If it will open inside it (26914-27425) initial acceptation of it and eventually tests above and/or below it are expected....
So, GB opened inside yesterday GB range and immediately went up to the composite POC (pole of attraction). Now, let's see how it will develp and how and if it will test overnight high and/or low (2695-27545) and yesterday GB session high and/or low (26914-27425)
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  • #687
  • Oct 6, 2016 2:33am Oct 6, 2016 2:33am
USDX situation:

yesterday was an inside day. So we are now in a little balance: possible breakout here.

Attached Image
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  • #688
  • Oct 6, 2016 3:28am Oct 6, 2016 3:28am
B period was inside A period. C is attempting a break above it, but leaving below a poor low cluster at 2709. Very narrow range, lack of conviction, weak environment. All this was expected considering the open price level (right inside yesterday GB range/value)

Note anyhow that the 2 pit poor lows at 2719 and 27285 are pit references: so any action above them before pit session open is clearly at risk. Carry this information forward.

The only possibility for the upcoming pit session to skip those very weak references is a gap higher above 2771. So only in the case of a big action upside by current GB and upcoming preUS a similar possibility will be present. And also in this case a possible gap could be retraced. Watch out then.
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  • #689
  • Oct 6, 2016 3:43am Oct 6, 2016 3:43am
10:43 +1GMT
D period low at half back 27205 level
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  • #690
  • Oct 6, 2016 4:02am Oct 6, 2016 4:02am
Quoting Lock
10:43 +1GMT D period low at half back 27205 level
Taken out...
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  • #691
  • Edited 6:05am Oct 6, 2016 5:52am | Edited 6:05am
Quoting Lock
B period was inside A period. C is attempting a break above it, but leaving below a poor low cluster at 2709. Very narrow range, lack of conviction, weak environment. All this was expected considering the open price level (right inside yesterday GB range/value) Note anyhow that the 2 pit poor lows at 2719 and 27285 are pit references: so any action above them before pit session open is clearly at risk. Carry this information forward. .....
So after more than 2 hours it eventually managed to take it out.

Please also note that G and H period highs are both at initial** half back 2723. It is still a weak environment. Now, current move is in the direction of the down trend and curren H low is at round 2700. But anyhow be awere of the overall weak condition.

Consider that all the current GB session developed inside yesterday GB session. Furthermore it didn't test nor the low (26954) nor the high(27545) of the overnight yet.

**HB or half back is a dynamic reference, it changes its position any time the range grow in any direction because it is the mid level of the range. So for instance before H move down it was at 2723 while now it is at 2719.
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  • #692
  • Oct 6, 2016 6:08am Oct 6, 2016 6:08am
Quoting Lock
{quote}... Furthermore it didn't test nor the low (26954) nor the high(27545) of the overnight yet. **HB or half back is a dynamic reference, it changes its position any time the range grow in any direction because it is the mid level of the range. So for instance before H move down it was at 2723 while now it is at 2719.

It's now testing Tokyo low 26954 (overnight low) for continuation downside we need acceptation** below it.

**At least a couple of m30 periods closed below this level or a spike downside closing below it: but it is not a science and is only a factor not the only one.
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  • #693
  • Oct 6, 2016 6:10am Oct 6, 2016 6:10am
Current I period low is only 1 pip above yesterday GB session low, consequently it is weak. Because who buy with this precision are weak hands and not stronger timeframes.

If there are more serious buyers you may find them below it somewhere.
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  • #694
  • Oct 6, 2016 6:17am Oct 6, 2016 6:17am
Watch out, if something will go wrong it will be around the "all time low" at 26845.
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  • #695
  • Oct 6, 2016 6:28am Oct 6, 2016 6:28am
Quoting Lock
{quote} It's now testing Tokyo low 26954 (overnight low) for continuation downside we need acceptation** below it. **At least a couple of m30 periods closed below this level or a spike downside closing below it: but it is not a science and is only a factor not the only one.

So, here's the spike downside. First: too many single pips for it. Second: let's see where it will close.
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  • #696
  • Oct 6, 2016 6:34am Oct 6, 2016 6:34am
Now yesterday pit session low is at 27284, if current GB action and following preUS will preserve a space below it before pit session open (15:30 +1 GMT) we will have a new pit gap downside. A gap is a form of excess and if it is not retraced quickly it generally indicate continuation downside. So let's see.
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  • #697
  • Oct 6, 2016 6:53am Oct 6, 2016 6:53am
13:53+1GMT
less than 10 minutes to go for preUS session: significant downside gap if it will open around here.
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  • #698
  • Oct 6, 2016 8:05am Oct 6, 2016 8:05am
Quoting Lock
13:53+1GMT less than 10 minutes to go for preUS session: significant downside gap if it will open around here.
15:05 +1GMT

PreUS opened at the base of the GB spike down and after a little test upside continued the sharp move downside. The pitUS gap will be very big if things will remain like this. Inventories are obviously 100% short. But we are in a weekly/daily trend. USDX is close to August high and is breaking, as written, as a possibility, this morning, above yesterday balance.
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  • #699
  • Oct 6, 2016 8:08am Oct 6, 2016 8:08am
what a tight slap cable has got today. road is open for 1.2400 now
  • #700
  • Edited 8:59am Oct 6, 2016 8:37am | Edited 8:59am
Pit session opened with more than 90 pips of downside gap from yesterday low at 27285. Now it could do this:

  1. balance here
  2. retracing some of the gap (inventories very very short) and then balance.
  3. retracing some and then continue lower.
  4. continue lower "immediately"
  5. fail completely here and retracing everything up to yesterday prominent poc at 27495.


For a complete failure we need something similar in the USDX. Note also that a full retracement of a gap of this magnitude during a trend is very rare event. (not so rare in a balance environment)

Then finally, there is the possibility of an exogenous event, something unpredictable that could change the natural course of events.

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