{quote}I want a retrace back into my fib retracement, or I'm not getting in it
I am short on usdcad, though. Don't look at too many pairs or else you risk becoming overwhelmed. {quote} I mean reversed the rally and dropped.
Price action trading - Trade like the pros!
- #62
- Oct 4, 2016 4:25am Oct 4, 2016 4:25am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,813 Posts
{quote} This is my try: On the Daily: SUPPLY started at 24/06, very big red candle. http://prntscr.com/cpme5r On 4H we can zoom in a bit, we see that supply entered the market at 1.1350, see the turquoise line, on the 18/08 it entered this zone and topped at 1.1368 http://prntscr.com/cpmgql
That's exactly what I wanted to see. {quote} How did you place your FIB on the EUR/USD pair?
- #67
- Oct 4, 2016 6:02am Oct 4, 2016 6:02am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,813 Posts
Ucad shorts tight stops, better be right on this
tight stops, better be right on this
- #69
- Oct 4, 2016 6:44am Oct 4, 2016 6:44am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,813 Posts
{quote} Thx, would be curious to know the reasons you took the trade, from long term and short term perspective.
The way I see it, price declined from 1.3170 and then rallied back to complete the range. It then proceeded to consolidate and this morning I woke up to see accumulation right below the level. I looked for an entry inside the range.
What worries me is the dollar strength as demonstrated on the USDx chart I posted earlier... In case it manages to go beyond 96.32 it's bad news for my shorts as well as any EU longs..
- #71
- Oct 4, 2016 9:52am Oct 4, 2016 9:52am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,813 Posts
{quote} The answer is within this recent price action. Markets are like a pendulum. They oscillate and you know, what goes up has got to fall
- #73
- Oct 4, 2016 6:04pm Oct 4, 2016 6:04pm
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,813 Posts
{quote} I modified my TP to yours at 1.3136 on the USD/CAD and it was almost the low...so thx for that, good trade for me On the other hand, I was stopped out on my EUR/USD trade , 10 pips lower it reversed, the problem with 2 demand zones on top of eachother, you don't know where to place your stop. Still learning, I will get better at this in the coming weeks http://prntscr.com/cpufzn
Careful though, sometimes I can get it wrong. As for EU, like I said - too far down below the daily open. Rallies were tiny up until that huge jump up at london close.It would appear you enter your trades using a H4 chart. What I'm trying to explain is how to use our higher timeframe analysis to capitalise in a short-term to intraday session. We use D1 and H4 for the purposes of our analysis, but we execute trades on one of the intraday TFs, m5, m15 even m30. There is too much information and lots of clues on m15 charts, we cannot neglect them!
As far as stops go, work on getting direction right, look at the entries I've shown. Try using a 20-25 pip stop at first, with some practice, you'll narrow your stop down to as much as 7-8 pips. The beauty of this system is that at one point, you start expecting what to see and moments later see it unfold. We can predict price action with the right knowledge and some practice
- #76
- Oct 5, 2016 7:09am Oct 5, 2016 7:09am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,813 Posts
Thx for the good feed-back. Beeing able to work with stops of 7 to 8 pips would really require a good mastering of S&D. But it is also my aim. What are you looking at today? I have a supply zone marked out on the NZD/USD 30 min chart: http://prnt.sc/cq16mg On the EUR AUD I see a supply zone on the 1H, start marked by Turquoise line: http://prntscr.com/cq1b9b On the EUR CHF I took a short, too early it seems, because the candle will not close as a bearish engulfing: http://prntscr.com/cq1bxd Another one that looks...
However, don't forget that we don't just buy or sell when price gets near or inside an area of liquidity. We have to put as many odds as we can behind us, time our entry neatly, place a tight stop and reach high R:R. We start by denoting areas of sup/dem. We look for historical highs and lows that may affect in some way our bias. We look at recent price action, and by that I don't mean price action candles. The truth is PA candles on their own don't work. You can have a bearish engulfing candle and a rally within the following 2 candles. They can be a trigger to enter a position, but honestly, when we're done here, you won't need it.
What we're trying to learn here is that no matter what "system" we trade, markets will always be the same. Systems, in the forexfactory sense, are synonymous to "signals", what signal we use to enter our trades is not at all important. What we want is to be able to tell where price is and where it's trying to go. We want to acquire the practice and training to know when we can enter a trade and when we'll end up losing if we do.
All of that can only be done by building a proper background, using all the tools mentioned in the first post, on a higher timeframe no smaller than H4. Daily charts is where it all happens, and by that I mean where "macrotrends" are formed. The people in charge of creating trends and making price move do not care about lower timeframe noise. However we think of lower timeframes as "broken down price action", as if we zoom in to see better what goes on during the day. That way we may get a better entry on our trades, on an intraday basis... And tight stops, don't forget the tight stops
- #77
- Oct 5, 2016 7:21am Oct 5, 2016 7:21am
- Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Trader | 1,813 Posts
Short EURGBP 0.88116 H1 CHART {image}
If we go to a weekly chart, where we can see price action at those levels clearly, EURGBP is tackling the 0.8810 highs from february 2013. There are strong chances it rallies above those highs, reaching into an area of liquidty around 80 pips higher. Even then, there's no guarantee it will stop because of the aforementioned cable weakness. Throw in a "Draghi bomb" about tapering QE sooner and it will shoot up to the 2011 highs at 0.90.
So 1) it's not a pair I'd risk exposure on 2) even if I would it would be after I've seen confirmation of an exhausted rally (consolidation, new accumulation) 3) I would only hope to see very shortlived declines => it is safer to buy the dips.
Once again, trends are built on higher timeframe charts - H4, daily, weekly and monthly.
That's my opinion, at least
