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The Really Useless Thread

  • #143,781
  • Oct 3, 2016 9:33am Oct 3, 2016 9:33am
Quoting hoom
Sterling [GU] on the front seat and it looks very heavy right now even with the positive data earlier today but that won't prevent it from the imminent break of the low which would carry the rest of board with it .
Because of NFP this Friday, GU might break down, but it will be back to flip area 1.308.
  • #143,782
  • Oct 3, 2016 9:40am Oct 3, 2016 9:40am
Quoting goosebone
So if gu breaks below Jul. low 2795, that's when we start talking about momentum? (obviously I'm still unclear on this part)
I used a long time find a good way to understand / use momentum. Not many if any was explaining it good before I found some intraday tick scalping system.

From that tick scalping system that I sometimes use I got the best understanding, momentum / projection and depth are measured as follow:.

Momentum you can measure from the angle of the swing high to the swing low ( The green lines ) . If next swing high / low has increased angle you can say that it is stronger momentum.


If projection is increasing and momentum increasing and depth decreasing it is good signs. ( You get LL , LH all the way and instrument is trending )

If you get stronger momentum, decreased projection and increased depth it is choppy. ( You got an LL but also an HH )

Projection: Is the distance from the previous LL to the next LL
Depth: Is the distance of the retracement


It can not be transferred directly to higher TF but the main points should be valid. And actually we can just eyeballing some lower tf to see momentum visually. No need to complicate. There is many definitions and this is just one. But it is the one I prefer.

Hope it is understandable.
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,783
  • Oct 3, 2016 9:42am Oct 3, 2016 9:42am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Because of NFP this Friday, GU might break down, but it will be back to flip area 1.308.
If you got a timeframe on that you should bet the farm.
  • #143,784
  • Edited 11:27am Oct 3, 2016 9:47am | Edited 11:27am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I used a long time find a good way to understand / use momentum. Not many if any was explaining it good before I found some scalping system. From that tick scalping system that I sometimes use I got the best understanding, momentum / projection and depth are measured as follow:. Momentum you can measure from the angle of the swing high to the swing low ( The green lines ) . If next swing high / low has increased angle you can say that it is stronger momentum. If projection is increasing and momentum increasing and depth decreasing it is...
Thanks for that. I can see what you are looking at there. Very clear. My guess is that what you show is a part of or an element of evidence for what sisse describes as momentum but not sure. Much appreciate your view on it. It seems like (can't chart at the moment) a break of 2790 would qualify as a possible momentum move down depending on how deep and fast according to your way of looking at it no?
  • #143,785
  • Oct 3, 2016 9:55am Oct 3, 2016 9:55am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} If you got a timeframe on that you should bet the farm.

May be I "will" bet the farm! Sorry I never meant that, but as an observation Price seems "always" back to flip area before an important news (i.e., NFP)
  • #143,786
  • Oct 3, 2016 10:01am Oct 3, 2016 10:01am
Quoting goosebone
{quote} Thanks for that. I can see what you are looking at there. Very clear. My guess is that what you show is a part of or an element of evidence for what sisse describes as momentum but not sure. Much appreciate your view on it. It seems like (can't chart at the moment) a break of 2795 would qualify as a possible momentum move down depending on how deep and fast according to your way of looking at it no?
All the move in the swing is momentum by this definition. And by analyzing the previous momentum, projection and depth you trade the expectation.

I am also very interested to see how Sisse define it. Think he will come to it .
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,787
  • Oct 3, 2016 10:09am Oct 3, 2016 10:09am
There are two flips currently working the best for e/u one between 1.112x - 1.113x and the other near 1.124x - 1.126x ..
Now the question arises were we will see the price before or on nfp ... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,788
  • Oct 3, 2016 10:10am Oct 3, 2016 10:10am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} All the move in the swing is momentum by this definition. And by analyzing the previous momentum, projection and depth you trade the expectation. I am also very interested to see how Sisse define it. Think he will come to it .
I see. I'm getting too close again.
  • #143,789
  • Oct 3, 2016 10:47am Oct 3, 2016 10:47am
Quoting Fadhl
{quote} Because of NFP this Friday, GU might break down, but it will be back to flip area 1.308.
wouldnt be surprised, timing sucks with NFP. I've cleared my second trip from this morning- now flat

would like to hold because most times we'll see a new low depending on this daily close (lower close = lower low inbound.) however; the timing is too funky- currently markets betting no hike. After NFP the road should be clearer for GU/EU/Dollar
  • #143,790
  • Oct 3, 2016 10:50am Oct 3, 2016 10:50am
Quoting primejarvis
There are two flips currently working the best for e/u one between 1.112x - 1.113x and the other near 1.124x - 1.126x .. Now the question arises were we will see the price before or on nfp ...Â
If the expectation is inline for a good NFP, then 1.124 is more likely in order to reload for more pips.
  • #143,791
  • Oct 3, 2016 3:45pm Oct 3, 2016 3:45pm
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  • #143,792
  • Oct 4, 2016 2:27am Oct 4, 2016 2:27am
So We could say now We hope a "bad NFP" for USD coz GU aim 1.2750 today... UJ released The Kraken...
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  • #143,793
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:12am Oct 4, 2016 5:12am
Quoting sisse
....have a very tradable 'roll' play for today in the Yen (UJ). First day of trading in Tokyo overnight after the FED/BOJ with 100.8x [check]as key level for the play and to set high and low of the year...

...clearing first target in UJ a few ticks below 102.5x but 'don't be a dick for a tick rules apply' after the failure to take it in the European session. Well done all on this ride....

A very decent session for trading, all markets on the move with Sterling and the UK in general setting the mood. All major FX currencies on the move at the same time and we still have Dollar for later this week ...a promising week in the making.

On the rest of the board, 'bad news is still good news' in European Equities via BOE bazooka (and to lesser extend ECB backtracking from last statements) expectations but the winds from the storm in the horizon are already hitting shores.

The closer we get to the BOE and the end of this Q the more difficult it will be for Equities to ride 'free money' and the cockier, secretive and aggressive the UK politicians become the worst it will be for next year ...

Sterling already broke 30 year lows one more time and is literally floating on air. Dollar will be the executioner that decide the fate of Sterling this week.

Very active trading, NY needs to play ball but sadly we have a key NFP this week that can send us to narrow chop if we don't break today ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,794
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:22am Oct 4, 2016 5:22am
...clearing first target in UJ a few ticks below 102.5x but 'don't be a dick for a tick rules apply' after the failure to take it in the European session. Well done on this ride....

Sisse,
please help me understanding your comment well,
yesterday your short term out look changed to Buy Yen
but today 102.50 is a well done and first target
  • #143,795
  • Edited 6:33am Oct 4, 2016 6:05am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting Earleone
{quote} I used a long time find a good way to understand / use momentum. Not many if any was explaining it good before I found some intraday tick scalping system. From that tick scalping system that I sometimes use I got the best understanding, momentum / projection and depth are measured as follow:. Momentum you can measure from the angle of the swing high to the swing low ( The green lines ) . If next swing high / low has increased angle you can say that it is stronger momentum. If projection is increasing and momentum increasing and depth decreasing...
Small projection on the LL But we got an LL . Strong momentum for the day ( weaker then last time, but look the last part of it that happened today ) , and with the weak projection it is expected a qte deep retracement. So I will look to scale in at the S/R levels. And if it continue south before it is ok too. But then I dont manage to scale in
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,796
  • Oct 4, 2016 6:33am Oct 4, 2016 6:33am
That was it. This can be a rather quick session if NY disappoints in the opening range. Large options barriers (base on experience more than anything else this time so take it with a pinch of salt not as fact) in play in the major currencies for NFP (a.k.a hikes) so only a quick clean sweep will unlock further moves and given the light calendar ....the odds are not in favour .... nothing see until the open...

sisse

Quoting Arshamv
...clearing first target in UJ a few ticks below 102.5x but 'don't be a dick for a tick rules apply' after the failure to take it in the European session. Well done on this ride.... Sisse, please help me understanding your comment well, yesterday your short term out look changed to Buy Yen but today 102.50 is a well done and first target
??? Don't understand what you are asking... What does the last change of outlook has to do with the trade?

We are here:

This is the Brexit update on Sunday. Changing from soft BUY to BUY

Quoting sisse
...--> Changing short term outlook in Yen from soft buy to Buy
This is the actual 'choose your poison time" for that trade....

Quoting sisse
....have a very tradable 'roll' play for today in the Yen (UJ). First day of trading in Tokyo overnight after the FED/BOJ with 100.8x [check]as key level for the play and to set high and low of the year...
If you backtrack (again find the link to the chain related to this trade..not sure if all details are chained) you will find more details on the TA and FA for UJ. if my memory is right around last FED.

Whatever the case, I think you may need to read some back post on outlooks and mapping a trade from the last few months. I always try to quote those posts to the last bit so its easier to trackback, etc. Look for Imarich1 posts early in the year until you find the link to the conversation chain (it extends several weeks so )...

GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,797
  • Oct 4, 2016 6:36am Oct 4, 2016 6:36am
Here's the hold up, if popped all xxx/usd will follow
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  • #143,798
  • Oct 4, 2016 6:41am Oct 4, 2016 6:41am
Quoting Pharm0r
Here's the hold up, if popped all xxx/usd will follow {image}
Dollar looks so ready to pop since last year close...it's only a matter of time.

If you can plot that chart with Q bars (if you don't have them at least M candles) it will a lot clearer and easier to spot what is in play for that mid and long term ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,799
  • Oct 4, 2016 7:40am Oct 4, 2016 7:40am

Quoting sisse
{quote} Dollar looks so ready to pop since last year close...it's only a matter of time. If you can plot that chart with Q bars (if you don't have them at least M candles) it will a lot clearer and easier to spot what is in play for that mid and long term ... sisse
No quarterlies on Think or Swim, however; that monthly looks like the loch ness monster

The compressed range since July is discusting...talk about a coiled spring

I suspect current range will pop on NFP bad or good...no reason for it to go today
  • #143,800
  • Oct 4, 2016 7:50am Oct 4, 2016 7:50am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} No quarterlies on Think or Swim, however; that monthly looks like the loch ness monster The compressed range since July is discusting...talk about a coiled spring I suspect current range will pop on NFP bad or good...no reason for it to go today
12% sterling weight. Could budge dxy out of there if the gu move down gets deeper and eu breaks below 1157 flip? Not looking that way atm though
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