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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #621
  • Oct 4, 2016 12:39am Oct 4, 2016 12:39am
Quoting Lbass
Any uptrend showing? Or theres no hope?
Uptrend is impossible here. We could experience eventually a strong retracement. A trend as written in the previous posts is a differnt kind of thing. I suggest to be very prudent here because it is a very delicate environment right now and the market information are not so many right now. The only info I got are: up and down open price: lack of conviction in any direction. A very weak spike down from Tokyo. And we are close to the breakeven 2795 (meaning we could eventually have a retest of it). Plus the minus develpment up to 2815. But who know?
In the meantime USDX is testing its major half back at 96.22.(16.12.02 / 15.05.03 major bracket) Let's see its reaction there...
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  • #622
  • Oct 4, 2016 12:49am Oct 4, 2016 12:49am
Please note that we have now a A B periods poor high but we are below a huge GB gap. A gap is a form of excess and it need to be fully respected. Unless a fast retracement of it, the possibilities to go further downside are considerable. The problem here is the upcoming news. It is possible that the news is retarding the normal market reaction here. So we could also have a full retracement of the gap after the news. But it is only a possibility. If not, I repeat here, meaning if the gap will be preserved, we could have new lows today.
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  • #623
  • Oct 4, 2016 12:56am Oct 4, 2016 12:56am
Quoting giveachance
nice dump on Friday in past 4 hrs. Now u understand lock why I said on Friday sub 1.30's. I got caught as well on Friday. thinking that 150 pips was already overdone after US data and bought. bastards hit my stoploss at 1.2996. Its not done yet. 1.26 is what I see
I said this 15 days back and I continue to hold the view that 1.26 will be tested. gbp will not rally untill all the bottom pickers trading on high leverage are down and out. 1.24-1.25 is where I think it will stop. beyond that would be too much. 1.20 would signal a recession and a bad one for UK in next year
  • #624
  • Edited 1:27am Oct 4, 2016 1:12am | Edited 1:27am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} I said this 15 days back and I continue to hold the view that 1.26 will be tested. gbp will not rally untill all the bottom pickers trading on high leverage are down and out. 1.24-1.25 is where I think it will stop. beyond that would be too much. 1.20 would signal a recession and a bad one for UK in next year
I've no idea whatsoever of what market could do downside. I try to take the market a piece at a time. What you wrote is anyway totally possible** but I've no data to confirm or unconfirm it. This is my early morning report fron the 15 of September. In the first chart, the monthly one, after the failure above August high, I underlined the possibility of a full retracement of the August balance downside right were we are now today.
Currently I have no other market information but those I've already shown in the previous posts.

Have a nice continuation! Best L.

**We are in a weekly and daily downtrend (see report 10.03) and the direction is clearly downside now. So yes, unless the trend will stop, anything is possible downside.
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  • #625
  • Oct 4, 2016 1:20am Oct 4, 2016 1:20am
Please note that B period is inside A as current C is inside B. We are clearly in a balance and consequently a possible breakout could happen from here. Above to test the breakeven at 2795 and maybe correct the minus develpment up to 2815. Below to test the alltime low and eventually continue downside with more strength. Note that C low is at open price 27725.
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  • #626
  • Oct 4, 2016 1:28am Oct 4, 2016 1:28am
Quoting Lock
Please note that B period is inside A as current C is inside B. We are clearly in a balance and consequently a possible breakout could happen from here. Above to test the breakeven at 2795 and maybe correct the minus develpment up to 2815. Below to test the alltime low and eventually continue downside with more strength. Note that C low is at open price 27725.
Now C low is at half back. Watch out. It's a weak environment right now.
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  • #627
  • Oct 4, 2016 1:29am Oct 4, 2016 1:29am
Quoting Lock
Please note that B period is inside A as current C is inside B. We are clearly in a balance and consequently a possible breakout could happen from here. Above to test the breakeven at 2795 and maybe correct the minus develpment up to 2815. Below to test the alltime low and eventually continue downside with more strength. Note that C low is at open price 27725.
if you are still picking bottoms I cannot help
  • #628
  • Oct 4, 2016 1:32am Oct 4, 2016 1:32am
Quoting giveachance
{quote} if you are still picking bottoms I cannot help
I'm sorry, I think I do not understand. Please, what do you mean?
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  • #629
  • Oct 4, 2016 1:53am Oct 4, 2016 1:53am
Quoting Lock
Please note that B period is inside A as current C is inside B. We are clearly in a balance and consequently a possible breakout could happen from here. Above to test the breakeven at 2795 and maybe correct the minus develpment up to 2815. Below to test the alltime low and eventually continue downside with more strength. Note that C low is at open price 27725.
So D attempted a breakout above C balance, failed once ant it is now back downside to C low at open price 27725(that is also half back)

also:

Quoting Lock
Please note that we have now a A B periods poor high but we are below a huge GB gap. A gap is a form of excess and it need to be fully respected. Unless a fast retracement of it, the possibilities to go further downside are considerable. The problem here is the upcoming news. It is possible that the news is retarding the normal market reaction here. So we could also have a full retracement of the gap after the news. But it is only a possibility. If not, I repeat here, meaning if the gap will be preserved, we could have new lows today.
AB poor high taken out by D period attempted breakout. Now, unless a new further test upside (that is absolutely possible) the gap down is resisting and consequently a continuation downside is possible. Maybe after some more balance around here. Let's see. It is a very weak environment considering the referneces it is using to act...
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  • #630
  • Oct 4, 2016 2:03am Oct 4, 2016 2:03am
Quoting Lock
{quote} So D attempted a breakout above C balance, failed once ant it is now back downside to C low at open price 27725(that is also half back) also: {quote} AB poor high taken out by D period attempted breakout. Now, unless a new further test upside (that is absolutely possible) the gap down is resisting and consequently a continuation downside is possible. Maybe after some more balance around here. Let's see. It is a very weak environment considering the referneces it is using to act...
C and D weak low taken out.
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  • #631
  • Oct 4, 2016 2:16am Oct 4, 2016 2:16am
11:16 +1GMT
A E periods poor low.
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  • #632
  • Oct 4, 2016 2:21am Oct 4, 2016 2:21am
Quoting Lock
11:16 +1GMT A E periods poor low.
Immediately tested and removed. Now for continuation* downside we want to see acceptation below the early morning low made bay A period low at 2756.

*Acceptation "means" at least a couple of m30 periods closing below or above a certain price level.
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  • #633
  • Oct 4, 2016 2:56am Oct 4, 2016 2:56am
Quoting Lock
.... In the meantime USDX is testing its major half back at 96.22.(16.12.02 / 15.05.03 major bracket) Let's see its reaction there...
USDX is now above 96.22 aiming to a possible test at September high.

Attached Image
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  • #634
  • Oct 4, 2016 3:03am Oct 4, 2016 3:03am
Please note that F period closed the empty space below the initial upper distribution. (its low was the A period low) So now we cannot have any more a double distribution trend session downside. It could continue lower but this is not a sign of strength. At the same time consider that current GB session is building an other big gap downside for upcoming preUS and pit US sessions. So even if GB will balance here the upcoming US sessions could do more downside if this possible gap will be (and if it will not be retraced quickly)
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  • #635
  • Oct 4, 2016 3:10am Oct 4, 2016 3:10am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Immediately tested and removed. Now for continuation* downside we want to see acceptation below the early morning low made bay A period low at 2756. *Acceptation "means" at least a couple of m30 periods closing below or above a certain price level.
C and F closed below A period low. So we got some sort of acceptation below. Do not try to make a science of this because it is not. Acceptation is only one information to consider. Tempo, elongation, double distributions, etc, are other information to consider here.
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  • #636
  • Oct 4, 2016 3:15am Oct 4, 2016 3:15am
Quoting Lock
{quote} USDX is now above 96.22 aiming to a possible test at September high. {image}
I mean, if it breaks September high it could also test August high at 96.52. They are very close one each other.
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  • #637
  • Oct 4, 2016 4:53am Oct 4, 2016 4:53am
Quoting Lock
Please note that F period closed the empty space below the initial upper distribution. (its low was the A period low) So now we cannot have any more a double distribution trend session downside. It could continue lower but this is not a sign of strength. At the same time consider that current GB session is building an other big gap downside for upcoming preUS and pit US sessions. So even if GB will balance here the upcoming US sessions could do more downside if this possible gap will be (and if it will not be retraced quickly)
So GB spent the las 5 periods balancing and now preUS is going to open with a notable gap lower. If it will not be retraced quickly, as written, the possibility for continuation downside is in place. Note that there is a lot of emotion in this move down and the structure above is anything but good.
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  • #638
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:11am Oct 4, 2016 5:11am
Quoting Lock
{quote} So GB spent the las 5 periods balancing and now preUS is going to open with a notable gap lower. If it will not be retraced quickly, as written, the possibility for continuation downside is in place. Note that there is a lot of emotion in this move down and the structure above is anything but good.
So PreUS opened and tagged GB low, making this level currently weak. Then came it back to open. For now weak hands playing.

Please note that for now nor GB nor preUS tested breakeven (lower daily distribution low at 2795) from below.
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  • #639
  • Oct 4, 2016 5:51am Oct 4, 2016 5:51am
Now testing the Tokyo low (spike base) that is also Tokyo close at 27695.
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  • #640
  • Oct 4, 2016 6:25am Oct 4, 2016 6:25am
Quoting Lock
Now testing the Tokyo low (spike base) that is also Tokyo close at 27695.
So when we are less than 10 minutes to go for the pit session open, we have the current situation:

  1. weekly and daily trend down. (one timeframing lower both)
  2. a weak low made by GB tagged by preUS at 27356
  3. a preUS poor high around the Tokyo spike low (exactly at 27715)
  4. a preUS gap down, retraced only in part.
  5. a breakeven at 2795 (lower daily bracket low) not tested yet nor by Gb nor by preUS.
  6. a preUS C period inside bar of B period. (balance, then possible breakout from here)
  7. inventories from yesterday pit unchanged (2839) that are 100% short.

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