AUD/USD

Prepare amo to hit AU ..could be high impact

I have read that futures only price in 2% chance of rate decrease. New RBA Governor's first decision, last rate drop was just made in August, time needed to assess impact etc etc. Possible short term spike up when hold rates is announced, then I would expect beginning of retrace downwards to recent lower levels of range.

Trading the RBA decision in awhile:

most likely no rate change, but market will look at the statement and price action -

If Aud rises: sell orders placed at 7710 & 7723
If Aud falls: no order, but will consider buying at 4h 200ma with a tight stop
if rate cut: no action

Agree on sale levels. And agree rate cut stay out...if the surprise cut happens there may be short term drop then relief rally as market responds with "well, that's out of the way, no more cuts anytime soon"

Very subdue note from the RBA, not much positive news in comments, Melbourne Cup interest rate cut likely.

Media ReleaseStatement by Philip Lowe, Governor:
Monetary Policy Decision
Number 2016-26
Date 4 October 2016
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
The global economy is continuing to grow, at a lower than average pace. Labour market conditions in the advanced economies have improved over the past year, but growth in global industrial production and trade remains subdued. Actions by Chinese policymakers have been supporting growth, but the underlying pace of growth in China has been moderating. Inflation remains below most central banks' targets.
Commodity prices have risen over recent months, following the very substantial declines over the past few years. The higher commodity prices have supported a rise in Australia's terms of trade, although they remain much lower than they have been in recent years.
Financial markets have continued to function effectively. Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative. Government bond yields are near their historical lows.
In Australia, the economy is continuing to grow at a moderate rate. The large decline in mining investment is being offset by growth in other areas, including residential construction, public demand and exports. Household consumption has been growing at a reasonable pace, but appears to have slowed a little recently. Measures of household and business sentiment remain above average.
Labour market indicators have been somewhat mixed. The unemployment rate has fallen further, although there is considerable variation in employment growth across the country. Part-time employment has been growing strongly, while growth in full-time employment has been subdued. The forward-looking indicators point to continued expansion in employment in the near term.
Inflation remains quite low. Given very subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world, this is expected to remain the case for some time.
Low interest rates have been supporting domestic demand and the lower exchange rate since 2013 has been helping the traded sector. Financial institutions are in a position to lend for worthwhile purposes. These factors are all assisting the economy to make the necessary economic adjustments, though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.
Supervisory measures have strengthened lending standards in the housing market. Separately, a number of lenders are also taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments. Growth in lending for housing has slowed over the past year. Turnover in the housing market has declined. The rate of increase in housing prices is lower than it was a year ago, although some markets have strengthened recently. Considerable supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years, particularly in the eastern capital cities. Growth in rents is the slowest for some decades.
Taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy at its May and August meetings, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.

Dovish statement from RBA

in a range for the day 76.4 to 76.9

The AUD just got pushed down @ 18:00 Eastern Standard time... guess the market is reacting to the statement from RBA...

@ 19:30 Eastern time the UK Construction PMI will be reporting. If this comes out as a negative effect, the AUD will go down further.

I have noticed that the AUD correlates with the GBP.

@ 18:00 Eastern Standard time - really, I think you mean AEDT because EST is in USA and it's not 18:00 there

or as the Forex market calls it LONDON OPEN

Yes. Has positions between .76500 & .76700...will see what happenes next. Time will tell

Risk on AUD & GBP up Risk off down.

It seems that 7665, which is London's 17:00 friday close is capping the market...I'd say its a low risk short here, I'd use a 7675 stop...maybe for a move toward 7617/20

7655 is this weeks London open, in my opinion a couple of hourly closes under there might give the bears some legs...

Agree Dude....
[The Open is the only price that is real until the Close]
Added Short.

AUDUSD 6H Chart:
Rolling over?
Cheers, U2

AUDUSD 4H Chart:
A strong 4H Close should nail it?
TP 0.7479 [Minimum Target].
Cheers, u2

Very weak hourly close. Still stuck in a range it seems..

Watch for a probable role flip southwards around current area of price action which is a confluence of the weekly pivot and an S/R zone on the 4H.

KP

Csak most latom, hogy nem is vagyok annyira egyedul ezen a forumon.
Milyen kellemes meglepetes...

Sok sikert!

Edit: sorry guys, no secret, just found out Uturn2 is a fellow-country(wo)man.

AUDUSD 2H Chart:
Hit the demand zone?
H&S Topping Pattern?
Minimum TP 0.7479
Cheers, U2

AUDUSD 6H chart:
Longer term TP
Cheers, U2