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  • #143,741
  • Sep 30, 2016 8:53pm Sep 30, 2016 8:53pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} [...] However- out of curiosity why would you say bearish weekly close?
Well the way I read this weekly candle is :

1. Selling pressure was there this week (the long lower shadow). Sellers pushed price to the closest support @ 1.115x

2. The failure to break this support was not a surprised. Buyers are defending this area like the past few weeks until further data (ie. NFP) before giving up (or not). And Sellers know that.

3. Buyers then took the hand (no interest for Sellers to defend this area or to try to break out right now (cf. 2)) and drove the price higher by the finish (helped by some profit taking from intraweek Sellers). But the tiny body and the closing level right on a resistance induces (to my eyes) that Sellers were in full control and were handling this bounce as they wished. (Sorry for the poor english)
  • #143,742
  • Sep 30, 2016 9:05pm Sep 30, 2016 9:05pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Well the way I read this weekly candle is : 1. Selling pressure was there this week (the long lower shadow). Sellers pushed price to the closest support @ 1.115x 2. The failure to break this support was not a surprised. Buyers are defending this area like the past few weeks until further data (ie. NFP) before giving up (or not). And Sellers know that. 3. Buyers then took the hand (no interest for Sellers to defend this area or to try to break out right now (cf. 2)) and drove the price higher by the finish (helped by some profit taking from...
A perfectly clear explanation. I hope to see it that clearly at some point. (and near perfect English I would add only because you mentioned it).
  • #143,743
  • Sep 30, 2016 9:17pm Sep 30, 2016 9:17pm
Quoting Pharm0r
As far as December FED.....
HRC elected, risk rallies like Santa Claus comin to town, Fed hikes 0.25, markets barely blink, but watch out for Jan '17 - if we are due a correction I'd guess it will be mild and early.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,744
  • Edited 10:12pm Sep 30, 2016 9:53pm | Edited 10:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}HRC elected, risk rallies like Santa Claus comin to town, Fed hikes 0.25, markets barely blink, but watch out for Jan '17 - if we are due a correction I'd guess it will be mild and early.
a repeat signal would be nice (chart)

the lead-up is about the same across spx/t-notes but I don't see any faith in the dollar...looks extremely weak to me. Look at the open interest on EU futures DEC 16. 1.17xx is wanted
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #143,745
  • Edited 10:31pm Sep 30, 2016 10:09pm | Edited 10:31pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Yeah that much is obvious (In response to what you messaged me). My general thoughts (open to the thread for discussion) is dollar is looking weak and essentially holding that wedge by just a hair...Im worried the bottom wont hold for a bad nfp, and maybe not even an inline report that can be seen as ambiguous... As far as December FED....I don't know- the rhetoric from FED is similar to last year, we've been warned to expect a hike...I think this NFP will be the deciding factor for the market expectations (and this range) as far as December...
I agree with this regarding EU and GU.
( where did emoticons disappear??? LOL)

Quoting Fisher755
EURUSD Comment: TA wise looks nice and bearish . Depends on today's close, if this breakdown holds this time it looks very nice for bears. Another clue forgotten H&S. Charts from 9 days ago and today... {image} {image}
EURUSD Comment:

Looked great at NYO, not so great for bears at Daily close- above NL again with rejection candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDiDaily 1.10..png Size: 40 KB


Here is my universal chart (map)...looks like no harm that I missed the train this week...the pair doesn't want to Flip. Maybe opportunity to load higher..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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PVSRA
  • #143,746
  • Oct 1, 2016 1:02am Oct 1, 2016 1:02am
Need a good shake to break . Range is getting more and more narrow. So lets see how it breaks
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,747
  • Edited 2:26am Oct 1, 2016 2:03am | Edited 2:26am
Although this is a bit micro a falling hourly flag pattern has formed with tails, could be a channel to watch.
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  • #143,748
  • Edited 3:18am Oct 1, 2016 2:56am | Edited 3:18am
Quoting clayjay
Although this is a bit micro a falling hourly flag pattern has formed with tails, could be a channel to watch.{image}
If you are bull USDJPY it will possible come opportunity to fade the bounce of your lower trendline. If you are Bear It will possible come a good opportunity to fade the bounce the upper trendline. All depends on your short term outlook. In the middle on lower tf it is much more difficult and risk is bigger. It goes up and down small TF pivots broken, held +++ . So then you better be good at scalping and you will get on a normal intraday several WTF moments.


This is what I see.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,749
  • Oct 1, 2016 3:20am Oct 1, 2016 3:20am
I do have a bullish bias. Chart and recent figures have been volatile along with my risk management (rookie poster mistake).
Wont wait for lower trend line, upper trend line will be the decision time on this trade.




Congratulations to Australian rules football premiers the Western Bulldogs for winning their first Premiership in 62 years.
A Thrilling Grand Final
Carn the Doggies.
  • #143,750
  • Edited 9:25am Oct 1, 2016 3:29am | Edited 9:25am
Gee's your daily chart looks bearish compared to my chart big difference on the daily chart.
Maybe candles change at different times of dayAttachment
  • #143,751
  • Edited 3:49am Oct 1, 2016 3:36am | Edited 3:49am
Quoting clayjay
Gee's your daily chart looks bearish compared to my chart from Comsec big difference on the daily chart. Maybe candles change at different times of day{image}
You should check your feed. I checked mine with the online charts at investing.com and daily looks similar so I thrust my charts . ( My broker use Helsinki time for my charts )
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,752
  • Oct 1, 2016 3:51am Oct 1, 2016 3:51am
Thanks mate, will look into this. Analysis could change just on when timing of candles are reported.
Helsinki time
Cheers
  • #143,753
  • Edited 4:47am Oct 1, 2016 4:02am | Edited 4:47am
I thought currencies world wide would close at the same time, which ever country closes last on their Friday.
Believe it or not English is my first language.
  • #143,754
  • Edited 4:41pm Oct 1, 2016 7:48am | Edited 4:41pm
All currency markets have their open and closes Sydney, Tokyo, Frankfurt, London, New York in order.

Have searched the internet unable to find a definitive close time for the weekend.
I know all markets this includes currencies, commodities, indicies close at 3am Saturday Sydney time.
Sydney 3am Saturday
Tokyo 5am Saturday
Frankfurt 12pm Saturday
London 1pm Saturday
New York 6pm Friday

Would this be correct Being your close times.
  • #143,755
  • Oct 1, 2016 11:30am Oct 1, 2016 11:30am
your daily candles should be closing at 5pm new york
  • #143,756
  • Oct 1, 2016 1:06pm Oct 1, 2016 1:06pm
Quoting Earleone
{quote} If you are bull USDJPY it will possible come opportunity to fade the bounce of your lower trendline. If you are Bear It will possible come a good opportunity to fade the bounce the upper trendline. All depends on your short term outlook. In the middle on lower tf it is much more difficult and risk is bigger. It goes up and down small TF pivots broken, held +++ . So then you better be good at scalping and you will get on a normal intraday several WTF moments. This is what I see. {image}
UJ is still Neutral Outlook and still closer to lower extreme, so less probability for shorts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYiDaily 1.10. map.png Size: 54 KB
PVSRA
  • #143,757
  • Oct 1, 2016 10:00pm Oct 1, 2016 10:00pm
Quote
Theresa May has said she is to introduce a "Great Repeal Bill" in the next Queen's Speech which will overturn the act which took the UK into the EU.
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=609284
  • #143,758
  • Oct 2, 2016 4:21am Oct 2, 2016 4:21am
Quote
Gee's your daily chart looks bearish compared to my chart from Comsec big difference on the daily chart. Maybe candles change at different times of day
Quoting Earleone
{quote} You should check your feed. I checked mine with the online charts at investing.com and daily looks similar so I thrust my charts . ( My broker use Helsinki time for my charts )
Clayjay and I had an PM conversation about this.

Different brokers can use different rollover time for their daily ( Some use their local market time ) so candle can look different for Daily candles and 4 H candles. The high will look the same and the low will look the same but the candle it happened will look different.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,759
  • Oct 2, 2016 5:59am Oct 2, 2016 5:59am
A bit of unconventional timing but important news from the UK this weekend. Government announcing date for Brexit and not only that but a huge legal step in getting ride of anything legally binding European law on the table...

We have been waiting for this since the day of the vote. Key updates that have been holding for months:

--> Changing mid term outlook in Sterling from Sell to Aggressive Sell

--> Changing short term outlook in UK Equities from neutral to Soft Sell (BOE still in play for Nov so careful there)

--> Changing short term outlook in Yen from soft buy to Buy

--> Changing mid term outlook in Euro from neutral to Sell.

For this week key NFP in play but hikes could fade rather quickly before Dec if Europe trigger the selloff before .... Lots of implications and actions for the next few weeks...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,760
  • Oct 2, 2016 8:23am Oct 2, 2016 8:23am
The attached file is a compilation of the TCB material. If it shouldn't be here let me know and I will
remove it.

My thanks to sissie and all contributors to this thread.

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Gourmet Trader TBC.pdf   596 KB | 646 downloads
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