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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #20,561
  • Sep 29, 2016 3:54pm Sep 29, 2016 3:54pm
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} US30 - 89T (-21 pips) I wasn't able to recover. Need to figure out a better way to limit losses Thoughts for the day {image}
I usually never say that, but today I was happy that I was busy at work.

I would not have expected that price would do such a drop down. The thing about news is that you do not know beforehand if it will affect the PA. Sometimes, PA moves a lot very fast and sometimes I am wondering if there is a problem with my mt4, since nothing moves.

Congrats Jmezz; Mack better times will come.
  • #20,562
  • Sep 30, 2016 1:09am Sep 30, 2016 1:09am
Quoting jmezz
{quote} Thank you Gaston. Yeah it's easier for me to abbreviate when I'm trying to post quick or detail my notes. I realize not everyone will know what they mean so glad you asked. ONH = Overnight High. The highest price from 430pm-930am EST. ONL = Overnight Low. The lowest price from 430pm-930am EST OFC = Order Flow Change.
Thank you jmezz
  • #20,563
  • Oct 1, 2016 10:58am Oct 1, 2016 10:58am
Good morning. Only had 1 trade yesterday. B/E. Kind of weird but I got slipped both ways on Ninja but not my broker.

I think its pretty self explanatory. Missed the re-entry. PT was conservative at the next level. Missed it by 5- 6 pips.

US30 -89T
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  • #20,564
  • Oct 2, 2016 9:00am Oct 2, 2016 9:00am
Quoting jmezz
YM Attempted a long off structure and moved to b/e+1 right away but was taken out. Now I might try and short the short term or just wait to see if a long term play develops that will take us back to the scene of the crime. {image}
Quoting jmezz
18175 still untested, that would make good long target. Edit - maybe not enough time left in the day
Quoting jmezz
{quote} I'm really done now. I lost track of time and thought we had more time in the day lol oops. Keeping mental note that 175 is still untested so might be something to try for tomorrow if it isn't touched in ON session.
Some follow-up on this.

I did not trade Friday but the market did end up testing the 18175 and beyond, not that I would have taken advantage of it though because most of the move was made in the overnight session and I most likely would not have gotten long right off the open.

The gold structure zone I outlined Thursday afternoon provided a nice bounce however price was unable to create a NSH from there.

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  • #20,565
  • Oct 2, 2016 9:05am Oct 2, 2016 9:05am
Quoting jmezz
YM -2, +6, +67 = +71 total Today could have been ugly. I made a couple somewhat emotional decisions on the fly which could have worked out badly. Trades explained: {image} {image} {image} {image}
I did not notice this at the time but there was also weakening in the short term swings.

Sometimes I lose track of the strength / weakness regarding short term swings, this is something I need to work on.

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  • #20,566
  • Oct 2, 2016 9:59am Oct 2, 2016 9:59am
Quoting Mack2013
{quote} US30 - 89T (-21 pips) I wasn't able to recover. Need to figure out a better way to limit losses Thoughts for the day {image}
Here's my opinion.

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  • #20,567
  • Oct 2, 2016 10:21am Oct 2, 2016 10:21am
I was looking further into the price action for Thursday / Friday and noticed that there were a lot of expectation failures.

Further study of post-news volatility shows there were 5 back-to-back expectation failures.

If anyone tried following the price action here and held for new highs / lows in the direction of their trades while keeping their initial stop then they got destroyed. These would put a nice dent in your account. Granted this area developed into a range but you wouldn't have known it was a range until at least the 4th expectation failure.

So when there's obvious volatility or no followthrough on expectations what do you do? Sit out? Manage trailing stop more aggressively? Don't look for the NSH / NSL and use a smaller target?

You could do any of these but would like to hear opinions to see if there's something I missed.

In regard to myself, I know sometimes I put a lot of pressure on myself to hit that NSH or NSL. Need to burn into my brain that it's ok to exit trades before target or if they look like they're going to come back against me. I don't have to hold while keeping initial stop every single trade. It's ok to take what's on the table and come away with any profit vs taking that loss.

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  • #20,568
  • Edited 7:58am Oct 3, 2016 7:08am | Edited 7:58am
YM this morning

Order flow is down and working on this 1:1.

Bank holiday for some today so volume might be light.

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Edit - Update. We have gap below us, steep price decline makes me think we're headed for lower.

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  • #20,569
  • Oct 3, 2016 8:37am Oct 3, 2016 8:37am
YM +37

Might be done for today.

Fairly straightforward, notes on chart.

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  • #20,570
  • Oct 3, 2016 10:00am Oct 3, 2016 10:00am
ES +5.00

Saw an op on the ES so took it.

This was a PRZ reversal after an OFC. 10handle rule on ES so was thinking we could hit 59 but once we slowed at the 50 I bailed.

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  • #20,571
  • Oct 3, 2016 12:00pm Oct 3, 2016 12:00pm
Quoting jmezz
{quote} Here's my opinion. {image}
Thank you for your comments.

"guilty of having an area mapped out and being to stubborn with price, wanting it to get to my area for me to trade, instead of paying attention to the chart"

I'm definitely guilty of this too. After looking at the chart again, I should of highlight your area rather then the higher area (at the 78.6) just for the fact that it provided a reaction in the previous swing and the higher one didn't. My read on the market has definitely come up short lately. I kind of think that I made an error in the process by making an expectation and then mapping the market to support that expectation rather then mapping the market and seeing if my expectation fit. It would of been a nice run tho
  • #20,572
  • Oct 3, 2016 2:19pm Oct 3, 2016 2:19pm
Very interesting thread. Finished getting through it last week and appreciate the lessons buried in here.

Going to give it a try trading one contract on YM until I truly get the hang of it.

If you didn't trade the open today, trading the YM was a bear. I ended up +9 and had to work pretty hard for that. Wish I had gotten up a bit earlier, probably would have made some $$ on the move down. Oh well.
  • #20,573
  • Oct 3, 2016 3:55pm Oct 3, 2016 3:55pm
Good afternoon. Took this trade this morning. I erased all my drawing so I could do some back testing but I think my thesis is pretty self explanatory.

US30 -89T +5pips

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Now, I got a couple of problems with price action. I'm not sure how to solve it or if I'm going about it the wrong way. If use Time base candles, I wont get the whole picture and the actual strength thats going behind the candles plus time based candles wont display strength when volume is low.

But tick charts can display weakness/ strength when there is none. take my last trade

This is what the candles looked like when I entered. I was like, "oh my god here we go. I've been waiting all day for this baby. Show me the money"
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But for what some reason I thought to re calculate the bars and then I seen this and was like," what the F&*K is that. Why would I enter there? I can't post this rubble. These guys will think I'm some kind of donkey."
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So this has got me thinking. What is my confirmation if everybody is looking at different candles? Why would I enter on a engulfing if the next guy sees a rejection?
  • #20,574
  • Oct 3, 2016 3:56pm Oct 3, 2016 3:56pm
Quoting DocPMD
Very interesting thread. Finished getting through it last week and appreciate the lessons buried in here. Going to give it a try trading one contract on YM until I truly get the hang of it. If you didn't trade the open today, trading the YM was a bear. I ended up +9 and had to work pretty hard for that. Wish I had gotten up a bit earlier, probably would have made some $$ on the move down. Oh well.
Welcome and good luck to you.
  • #20,575
  • Oct 3, 2016 4:41pm Oct 3, 2016 4:41pm
Quoting DocPMD
Very interesting thread. Finished getting through it last week and appreciate the lessons buried in here. Going to give it a try trading one contract on YM until I truly get the hang of it. If you didn't trade the open today, trading the YM was a bear. I ended up +9 and had to work pretty hard for that. Wish I had gotten up a bit earlier, probably would have made some $$ on the move down. Oh well.
Welcome.

Which trade(s) did you make today?

Feel free to post a chart.
  • #20,576
  • Oct 3, 2016 5:06pm Oct 3, 2016 5:06pm
Quoting Mack2013
Good afternoon. Took this trade this morning. I erased all my drawing so I could do some back testing but I think my thesis is pretty self explanatory. US30 -89T +5pips {image} Now, I got a couple of problems with price action. I'm not sure how to solve it or if I'm going about it the wrong way. If use Time base candles, I wont get the whole picture and the actual strength thats going behind the candles plus time based candles wont display strength when volume is low. But tick charts can display weakness/ strength when there is none. take my last...
Once you saw that rejection I think you made the right decision to lock in some points, or at the very least remove some risk. It did end up going higher afterwards but at the time who knows what it would have done. After 10am the entire day turned into a giant complex correction so if someone wants to trade that then you have to be ready to take profit and run imo.

Quote
I was like, "oh my god here we go. I've been waiting all day for this baby. Show me the money"
-

I really wish Ninja didn't have that problem with the bars recalculating. I've used quite a few different platforms and have never encountered that issue but it is a pain in the ass. I thought with NT8 they would have completely fixed it but it's still there.

But to answer your question I think you have to trade the price action that's in front of you. If you concern yourself too much with what type of bar someone else might be seeing I think you'll drive yourself nuts lol. It's more so the reaction on the chart: buying / selling stepping in with strength. JMO.
  • #20,577
  • Oct 3, 2016 9:38pm Oct 3, 2016 9:38pm
Quoting jmezz
{quote} Once you saw that rejection I think you made the right decision to lock in some points, or at the very least remove some risk. It did end up going higher afterwards but at the time who knows what it would have done. After 10am the entire day turned into a giant complex correction so if someone wants to trade that then you have to be ready to take profit and run imo. {quote} - I really wish Ninja didn't have that problem with the bars recalculating. I've used quite a few different platforms and have never encountered that issue...
Your definitely right. I want to see some kind of reaction. It just got me thinking that a candle close might not be necessary or there might be a better way to confirm buying / selling pressure.

when the bars recalculated and I seen the results . At first I was pissed and then I had to decide weather to exit or let it play out but afterwards I thought it was funny so I thought I would share and spread the laugh.

cheers
  • #20,578
  • Oct 4, 2016 7:36am Oct 4, 2016 7:36am
YM this morning

About to put in an OFC.

No edge so far with ON inventory.

Looks like we are realigning with prior move to the downside.

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  • #20,579
  • Oct 4, 2016 9:26am Oct 4, 2016 9:26am
Daily silver chart with a bat pattern forming?
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"In God we trust."
  • #20,580
  • Oct 4, 2016 10:17am Oct 4, 2016 10:17am
YM +4, -12, +26, +11 = +29

Really didn't see this price action coming so I locked in what I thought was good profit only to shaft myself by not letting my positions run.

Even though I made my daily quota I didn't trade smart today.

Notes on charts.

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