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The Really Useless Thread

  • #143,581
  • Sep 28, 2016 8:41am Sep 28, 2016 8:41am
Quoting hoom
{quote} I didn't see nothing , just a bunch a headline here and there on twitter months ago and with recent fine from the US , all ingredients were there to start cooking ! I know you been sarcastic so I would say that I would rather warn you to sell DB shares rather than warn those greedy capitalists
  • #143,582
  • Sep 28, 2016 8:51am Sep 28, 2016 8:51am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Glad you saw it coming, too bad you didn't warn the Germans. Maybe next time you wont be so selfish


check out the live updates :

https://www.theguardian.com/business...i-germany-live
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,583
  • Sep 28, 2016 11:14am Sep 28, 2016 11:14am
Quoting mayafx
{quote} hi send you an pm as you didnt get back i try it this way in case you dont read your pm or it didnt get through Hi there i m following the useless thread since a while. in which you posted that you have the whole info regarding the gourmettrader would it be possible for you to share it with me? i would really appreciate it to get that kind of educational material. regards mayafx
I would like to read it as well if its not too much trouble.

thank you
  • #143,584
  • Sep 28, 2016 12:17pm Sep 28, 2016 12:17pm
There is too many open topics accumulating on the last few pages so lets address some of the pending conversations:

Quoting hoom
....so [ 1 pip = 1$ ] for the sake of the exemple...
I understand where are you coming from when you talk about returns/risk and time in your comments. For a minute just try to clear you mind from your pre conceptions (not because they are wrong, but for the sake of the explanation).

-> First I didn't want to discuss in detail specifics about trading and money management until the very end of the iterations because it may confuse some of the posters around that are not so seasoned traders yet.

We can discuss TA or FA or anything but as soon as we introduce $$$ into the equation we bring with it most of the inner demons in trading so let me try to build a very simple and clean schema so we can put your questions and answers in a different perspective ... its nothing new but having a different perspective on your concerns may address a lot of your questions ....

**** WARNING to other readers the following lines MAY CONTAIN DULL AND SOME 'ADVANCED' terms/concepts(not chewed down words for some newcomers) feel free to skip if it gets too micro and boring...****

Ok hoom so: Lets start with a blank page, the Why, When and How of the trade is irrelevant for your questions. This is about risk, capital and core trade management concepts.

TBC in a few ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,585
  • Sep 28, 2016 12:24pm Sep 28, 2016 12:24pm
Quoting sisse
There is too many open topics accumulating on the last few pages so lets address some of the pending conversations: {quote} I understand where are you coming from when you talk about returns/risk and time in your comments. For a minute just try to clear you mind from your pre conceptions (not because they are wrong, but for the sake of the explanation). -> First I didn't want to discuss in detail specifics about trading and money management until the very end of the iterations because it may confuse some of the posters around that are not so seasoned...

Cool, BET THIS WILL BE GOOD.

And very much needed for a lot of traders. I always have problems with HTF trade size because the pips distances are scary for me, didn't get used to 100 pips SL yet after many months of trading HTFs ( added value to my scalping trades).
PVSRA
  • #143,586
  • Sep 28, 2016 12:29pm Sep 28, 2016 12:29pm
Waiting .... 
 
Attendance present sir .... 
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,587
  • Sep 28, 2016 12:35pm Sep 28, 2016 12:35pm
looks like i popped in at a pretty good time
  • #143,588
  • Edited 1:29pm Sep 28, 2016 1:18pm | Edited 1:29pm
Quoting hoom
....so [ 1 pip = 1$ ] for the sake of the exemple...
1. A map

As we did with price analysis, lets create a blank map for this. I deliberately hide the time axis for now.

We are taking the Euro case you are referring (currently in play) from the last 'choose your poison time' for the mid term swing....you can track back as much as you want for similar cases or track forward for the next one to come.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Range.png Size: 217 KB


2. Think like an investor

We are not going to talk about why, how or when for this topic so try to focus on capital, ROI and risk.... period.

So despite the FA or TA or anything else, Take this map and analysis from a strictly investment perspective what is worth and what isn't on your risk profile.

3. Define Capital and Risk

We are going to use [ 1 tick = 1$ ] for the sake of the example and I think is a good, realistic and valid benchmark to start swinging so:

--> Capital: $10.000 you shouldn't even consider trading a 1 = $1 with less capital than that and that is a fact !!! and not remotely negotiable to the down side. This is your most basic initial RISK MANAGEMENT STEP.

--> MAX RISK: Depending on your risk profile you shouldn't be risking more than 5% of your account in one single trade. For the sake of this example we are going to use a bit riskier than normal approach and decide on 3% (=$300). This should be your 2nd RISK MANAGEMENT STEP

Keep me in mid that here we haven't even check a chart yet.

4. Define your investment criteria in the range

A superb trader will hit +80% or more on a trading range. If you are hitting below -40% you are doing something wrong and your trading plan is wrong. Lets assume for this example you aiming at 60% of the range so:

The current range goes from 1.13 to 1.07 (btw I am rounding up numbers and handles because is not important for this) which give you 600 tick range from which you are aiming to grab +/- 360 ticks.

Here we will trigger a lot of inner demons so bear with me for a second. I know you can say 'thats is BS, i can take that range in and out 10 times and squeeze 10x that'... wrong !!! and micro scalper will come and say 'I can squeeze 12500 trades in that range and make 1 million bucks in that same range' ...WRONG ....

Lets just leave there for now. The important is that you have your FILM CLEAR. YOURS and ONLY YOURS

5. Define your position management plan

Here you will need to define your partials and etc. No less than 2 but no more than 5 as you will not be efficient.

Irrelevant for this topic how do you decide this targets but lets assume for this case we are going to divide in healthy 3 parts. TP1/TP2/TP2 at 33% of the range each.

​6. Define your position size

​Now that you have all that you can clearly define your position size and stops from a risk management perspective (nothing to do with TA or price etc)

-> Your max risk is $300
-> Your positions size is 3

Therefore: Your max stop size is $100 for each position is 100 ticks

So what you gain with this...that doesn't matter what TA or FA or anything in charts. If a potential TRADE doesn't allow you to have your max stop size you pass .... IT DOESN'T MATTER IF IT'sS THE TRADE OF THE YEAR !!!!

...tBc

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,589
  • Sep 28, 2016 1:29pm Sep 28, 2016 1:29pm
things just keep happening
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,590
  • Sep 28, 2016 2:05pm Sep 28, 2016 2:05pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1. A map As we did with price analysis, lets create a blank map for this. I deliberately hide the time axis for now. We are taking the Euro case you are referring (currently in play) from the last 'choose your poison time' for the mid term swing....you can track back as much as you want for similar cases or track forward for the next one to come. {image} 2. Think like an investor We are not going to talk about why, how or when for this topic so try to focus on capital, ROI and risk.... period. So despite the FA or TA or anything else, Take...
All your postings are very valuable to his community. Still, this might be the most valuable of all your posts.

You clearly are a professional. Everyone who also aims to be one should take notice. Adapting to these rules are a BIG step towards it.
Do not let the cost of being wrong, exceed the prize of beeing right
  • #143,591
  • Edited 2:46pm Sep 28, 2016 2:26pm | Edited 2:46pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1. A map As we did with price analysis, lets create a blank map for this. I deliberately hide the time axis for now. We are taking the Euro case you are referring (currently in play) from the last 'choose your poison time' for the mid term swing....you can track back as much as you want for similar cases or track forward for the next one to come. {image} 2. Think like an investor We are not going to talk about why, how or when for this topic so try to focus on capital, ROI and risk.... period. So despite the FA or TA or anything else, Take...
Works today on USD/CAD and All Great Thanks to Sisse.

Pic #1 Map and TA
Pic #2 TP and SL
Pic #3 Trades and Closed Positions
Pic #4 FA

Maybe this is My trade of the year.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH4 Map.png Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH4 I.png Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH4 II.png Size: 44 KB
Attached Image
fooled by randomness in art
Meditation All Time Return: 8.9%
  • #143,592
  • Sep 28, 2016 2:36pm Sep 28, 2016 2:36pm
Quoting Fisher755
{quote} Unbelievable. Exactly the same thinking for the last 28 years! It is circus all over the world. UJ Comment: Extreme working well ahead of Kuroda- held for now. {image}{image}
You're American?
  • #143,593
  • Sep 28, 2016 2:50pm Sep 28, 2016 2:50pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1. A map As we did with price analysis, lets create a blank map for this. I deliberately hide the time axis for now. We are taking the Euro case you are referring (currently in play) from the last 'choose your poison time' for the mid term swing....you can track back as much as you want for similar cases or track forward for the next one to come. {image} 2. Think like an investor We are not going to talk about why, how or when for this topic so try to focus on capital, ROI and risk.... period. So despite the FA or TA or anything else, Take...
This is exactly what I kind of got from previous conversations! But summed up for the first time. Absolute gold. Plus with the TA and FA approach we have its absolutely perfect. Cannot wait for "tbc"

P.S.: does the whole OPEC thing has any implications for instruments we usually discuss here? i.e. on currency/equities board?
  • #143,594
  • Sep 28, 2016 3:45pm Sep 28, 2016 3:45pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1. A map As we did with price analysis, lets create a blank map for this. I deliberately hide the time axis for now. We are taking the Euro case you are referring (currently in play) from the last 'choose your poison time' for the mid term swing....you can track back as much as you want for similar cases or track forward for the next one to come. {image} 2. Think like an investor We are not going to talk about why, how or when for this topic so try to focus on capital, ROI and risk.... period. So despite the FA or TA or anything else, Take...
Very good post explaining risk, capital and core trade management whatever TA or FA is in play .

This is the very basic of trading even for someone who is placing trades in a random way.

Before entering a position , one is to check all the rules mentioned in your post ...so if a trader is sharp enough to trade ranges or unidirectional swings then it's not a

question of patience anymore as there would be countless opportunities in most markets and that is what you have been doing in this thread : pointing out those

opportunities , the most obvious and healthiest ones in many markets :Eu ,YEN , ES , sterling , CAD etc...

Now you said it many times , this is about minimizing risk not couting your profits also let me quote
Quote
Trading is just a probability game based on pattern

recognition
which leads me to my next question: apart from live iterations we've been doing , is it possible to spot patterns [candles/more probability waves

etc] in real time and if possible in lower TFs [less than daily , more than Hourly] and trade accordincly if we are trading let's say a compression range inside a

compression range ? or it's not worth it ?
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,595
  • Sep 28, 2016 4:09pm Sep 28, 2016 4:09pm
...and we rolled with OIL rocking the board today with OPEC in a major announcement on the supply side. Well done all that got it. US equites all in line with the choppy ride up until next week while on the FX board, unexpectedly CAD still the headlines via OIL on the rest a calm and choppy session across the majors...

sisse

@hoom still some points left from the last post ...we'll continue later....For now next update in the BAR to BAR series first in the next post...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,596
  • Sep 28, 2016 4:12pm Sep 28, 2016 4:12pm
Thank you Sisse. Very good points.

Warren Buffet was telling a group of students.
When you finish your education every one should get a punch card with 20 punches on and that is all the investment decisions they can do the rest of their life. They will be very rich because they will think very hard about each off them. You don't need 20 of them to be correct even 4 or 5 hits will make you very successful.

This advice was given for stocks by him. But we can someway transfer that to trading forex too ( I will need a couple of 1000 puches on my card , But maybe a punch card with 1 punch daily could do.

It is in this video
Inserted Video
( from 3:30 minutes to 5:30 minutes is that point). I will recomend to see all of it. Pure gold.
Trading in the shadow of SM
  • #143,597
  • Sep 28, 2016 4:12pm Sep 28, 2016 4:12pm
Quoting sisse
...and we rolled with OIL rocking the board today with OPEC in a major announcement on the supply side. Well done all that got it. US equites all in line with the choppy ride up until next week while on the FX board, unexpectedly CAD still the headlines via OIL on the rest a calm and choppy session across the majors... sisse @hoom still some points left from the last post ...we'll continue later....For now next update in the BAR to BAR series first in the next post... sisse
Take your time mate...I need to slowdown on open discussions
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,598
  • Sep 28, 2016 4:30pm Sep 28, 2016 4:30pm
Quoting Earleone
Thank you Sisse. Very good points. Warren Buffet was telling a group of students. When you finish your education every one should get a punch card with 20 punches on and that is all the investment decisions they can do the rest of their life. They will be very rich because they will think very hard about each off them. You don't need 20 of them to be correct even 4 or 5 hits will make you very successful. This advice was given for stocks by him. But we can someway transfer that to trading forex too ( I will need a couple of 1000 puches on my card...
Trading for retirement vs trading for riches makes you rich
  • #143,599
  • Sep 28, 2016 4:30pm Sep 28, 2016 4:30pm
Quoting sisse
Dissecting the market (The Basics)
Quoting sisse
Bar 1: The Forgotten
Quoting sisse
Bar 2: Two to Tango
A shout at @IMARICH1 ...

Three to Swing: Waves, Support & Resistance Levels, S&R Zones, and Trendlines


Bar 3: Three to Swing


Attached Image


S/R and Trendlines are surprisingly misplaced and misunderstood, usually as consequences of problems recognizing the basics (High and Lows), or the implications of multiple timeframes.

At first glance, they are very efficient and so simple to understand that it seems impossible to deny their validity. But as you know, in a live chart they can be very difficult to recognize before is too late (lagging) or they can spread faster (too many contradictory swings) than swine flu, blurring the analysis of any rational trader.

S/R Levels are not the same as support or resistance points in a trendline

Its amazing how these 2 basic TA concepts are usually misunderstood and misinterpreted. A typical example of this problem is newbies (and sometimes not only them) calling the top or the bottom of a trend because a trendline got broken (just quickly glance at some the 1000s threads calling tops or bottoms). But before go in details, we need again to go back to basics.

In order to identify these areas and Trendlines, its necessary to add a 3rd bar in the analysis and define the 5 core notions for price analysis from a technical perspective: Swings (Highs and Lows), Waves, Support & Resistance Levels, S&R Zones, and Trendlines.

1. Swings

  1. Like always, in the foundations is where all problems start. What is a swing? What is the faster and most efficient method to determine a swing?

Attached Image

  1. The simple and more effective way that will cover most of the swings (in very volatile conditions especially with very small timeframes a swing can be formed in only 1 bar!!! another reason why trading very fast charts requires a lot of skills and experience ) is the one shown on the charts. So you need3 bars and the only rule for a swing high is a Lower High in the Bar [-1] a Higher High in the bar [0] and a confirmed LH in the bar [+1]. The opposite for Lows:


2. Support and Resistance Levels

This is one of the core fundamentals on Price Analysis. Once you have determined a swing you can also start defining (but not analyzing and even worst trading) S/R levels and Trendlines. These levels will also allow us to objectively define if price is making Higher Highs, Lower Highs, Higher Lows and Lower Lows.

To define S/R levels you just need Horizontal lines on those swings:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Support and Resistance Levels.png Size: 44 KB


3. Waves

  1. Once you have recognized a swing you will also have answered the first issue in price analysis: The direction of the current move (wave direction).
  2. This is a key concept because it allows you to establish if the new wave its going in the direction of the trend (meaning a potential entry) or its against (meaning you will have to wait until the end of the this wave for a potential entry if the conditions are still valid [e.g. HH and HL or LL and LH]).
  3. It also allows you to trail and adjust stops if the trade is not a scalp or exit a position if conditions are met and price for example is stalling and failing to break new highs or lows.

​
4. Support and Resistance Zones

S/R Zones are particularly useful when using multiple timeframes to identify potential areas where price may stall, or profit targets if already in a trade, or filtering false breaks (or anticipating one). To identify these zones we need a confirmed valid swing.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Support and Resistance Zones.png Size: 35 KB

  1. In the case of a Resistance zone, the area between the high of the swing bar, the close of the swing bar and more important the open of the next bar after the swing will define the resistance zone.
  2. In the case of a Support zone, the area between the low of the swing bar, the close of the swing bar and more important the open of the next bar after the swing will define the support zone.

To be continued ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,600
  • Sep 28, 2016 5:01pm Sep 28, 2016 5:01pm
Dollar isn't looking healthy at all in this wedge- a bad report tomorrow and kaput....not to say it wont bounce back, but it'll break the wedge first and shake weak bulls...carrying xxx/USD with it
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