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Jay's High Probability Setups

  • #401
  • Sep 23, 2016 3:53pm Sep 23, 2016 3:53pm
Quoting FX-Jay
*Can you explain more; with a chart perhaps?: YES, if interested, continue reading into the next post
In order to keep things simple, I'm just going to use a sample EURUSD chart.
Please not that this is just for illustration purposes, the scale on the picture is not very accurate, more accurate values can be found in the analysis following the picture.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USD weakness.png Size: 48 KB
  • #402
  • Sep 23, 2016 4:24pm Sep 23, 2016 4:24pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} In order to keep things simple, I'm just going to use a sample EURUSD chart. Please not that this is just for illustration purposes, the scale on the picture is not very accurate, more accurate values can be found in the analysis following the picture. {image}
So what do we have here:
We have 3 colored boxed that represent 3 time periods:

In blue, we have the period ranging between Sep 22 & Sep 26:
This is basically the period in which the market will want you to believe that the USD is going to be weak.
This comes after a relatively dovish Fed, so people are thinking that selling USD doesn't really sound like a bad idea, right?
In this area the Euro will go sideways/up (already did), which adds to the conviction that EU must continue upwards, and traders will try to jump onto the boat before its too late.

In red, we have the period ranging between Sep 27 & Oct 6:
Now that a fair amount of traders have entered the long EU trade & are convinced that the fundamentals support USD weakness, the EU starts to suddenly drop &/or move sideways down. I personally believe that a drop to 1.1105 is needed & will happen, but a shake out all the way to 1.0950 is not out of the picture.
The drop in EU could be 'caused' by endless amount of reasons including but not limited to some none-sense hawkish comments from some FED officials.
Over leveraged traders at this point are scratching their heads as their MC approaches. Most likely they will get stopped out or cut their losses.
In the same time the 'parity' lovers that are most likely stuck with old shorts at much lower levels will pop out and start calling for Eu to go to 0

In green, we have the period ranging between Oct 7 & Nov 11:
As stated earlier, according to the regression analysis that I've conducted, EU should bottom between the 6th and the 7th of October.
Coincidentally (?!?) on October 7th the NFP numbers are scheduled to be released. Whoa! Pure luck? could be.
If everything above goes as predicted, then you can bet big time that the NFP numbers are going to come out real bad, or in the best case scenario miss the forecasted estimates. At that point onward, EU & the other pairs mentioned earlier will be on an upwards trajectory to targets that I will be sharing later on.



Once more I would like to repeat that this is how I believe the USD weakness high probability trade will play out.
My timing could be totally off, and I'm ready to accept that. The USD weakness can start as early as next week, and I can totally miss out on that nice trade, but I'm going to try something different this time & stick to my script on the hopes of making risk free gains this time, and pushing my sharp ratio higher.
  • #403
  • Sep 24, 2016 3:56am Sep 24, 2016 3:56am
So you bet first down, then up. I am on that train too. Pre-brexit levels are waiting for a long-time. But analysis points in the other direction for now. So yeah, the timing could be wrong.
  • #404
  • Sep 24, 2016 9:03am Sep 24, 2016 9:03am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Hey Rcubic, Those are some decent gains! Congrats. I hope you're not neglecting the MM Keep it up
Thanks Jay, yes, as you stated many times before, Money Management is a key factor, in fact I have been very conservative. Still I am in early stages since I decided to apply some of your concepts, and I am developing my own system around it. Each setup has his own risk tolerance with a hard SL, so I will be trading only 2 to 3 set ups at the time, and a maximum of 4 to 6 positions for setup, leaving some space as well to trade few short term positions.

The beauty of this medium-long term trading, is that there is plenty of time for a set up to develop, plenty of time to plan, review and adjust. And accepting a risk prior set up, give us peace of mind, leaving only the market to decide.

It's always a pleasure to see what other information you got, that timing of weak and strength waves looks very interesting, looks like there is only one way to go, and that is improvement, congratulations, thanks for sharing

All the best
  • #405
  • Sep 26, 2016 12:26am Sep 26, 2016 12:26am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} So what do we have here: We have 3 colored boxed that represent 3 time periods: In blue, we have the period ranging between Sep 22 & Sep 26: This is basically the period in which the market will want you to believe that the USD is going to be weak. This comes after a relatively dovish Fed, so people are thinking that selling USD doesn't really sound like a bad idea, right? In this area the Euro will go sideways/up (already did), which adds to the conviction that EU must continue upwards, and traders will try to jump onto the boat before...
FZ-Jay, How long did it take to come up with and to establish conviction of the USD's future movements? Given that there are other trade opportunities which you discarded, in favor of this one. It must have been alot of work, and it's quite impressive. (given your track record).
Another question, what range of risk do you consider to be stable if one were to enter against the USD prior to OCT 6?

Suppose, the NFP reported an extremely bullish outlook for the USD, could one assume going short against the USD during that day to be a safe trade? I assume so since I'm sure there would have been a bullish result for the USD through the NFP sometime in the past which ultimately turned bearish for the USD based on your high probability assumption.
HMSR
  • #406
  • Sep 27, 2016 7:57am Sep 27, 2016 7:57am
Quoting kornrogers
I will keep checking the thread, to say the truth, whenever there's a new post, my brain starts to salivate like pavlov's dog
This is exactly how I used to feel back in the day in the Similarity thread & this ended up sparking amazing ideas into my head.
Too bad things ended the way it did back then in that thread
  • #407
  • Sep 27, 2016 7:58am Sep 27, 2016 7:58am
Quoting Rcubic
{quote} Thanks Jay, yes, as you stated many times before, Money Management is a key factor, in fact I have been very conservative. Still I am in early stages since I decided to apply some of your concepts, and I am developing my own system around it. Each setup has his own risk tolerance with a hard SL, so I will be trading only 2 to 3 set ups at the time, and a maximum of 4 to 6 positions for setup, leaving some space as well to trade few short term positions. The beauty of this medium-long term trading, is that there is plenty of time for a set...
Sounds very good.
True, improvement is the only way to go & this is going to be proven in real time
  • #408
  • Sep 27, 2016 8:11am Sep 27, 2016 8:11am
Quoting Hmsr
{quote} FZ-Jay, How long did it take to come up with and to establish conviction of the USD's future movements? Given that there are other trade opportunities which you discarded, in favor of this one. It must have been alot of work, and it's quite impressive. (given your track record). .
Bias for USD weakness started in early August, the conviction was established at the market close of Friday Sep 9th to be exact & it has gotten stronger by the day.

I do discard few 'good' trades, at the expense of 'great' trades, and I see it as a healthy thing when you have your trading emotions in check. No need to take all the opportunities in the market, just take the ones that you know will get you profit while being able to calmly sleep at night.

Just for the sake of transparency, I do trade way more setups than the ones shared here. The ones I share here are the ones that I am almost 100% certain will happen (95%+ probability trades). I can't share all setups for 2 main reasons:
1- I won't have the time to follow up on them, and things will get messy in the thread
2- I have worked my whole trading life on mastering risk management & controlling emotions, this means I can easily handle multiple trades when they are going both with or against me & end up with profits almost every time. This is not the case of most traders that I know are most likely taking the setups I share & overleverging. So in order to keep my conscious clear, I just share here the trades that are almost certain & are simple & don't need much managing.
  • #409
  • Sep 27, 2016 8:20am Sep 27, 2016 8:20am
Quoting Hmsr
{quote} Another question, what range of risk do you consider to be stable if one were to enter against the USD prior to OCT 6? Suppose, the NFP reported an extremely bullish outlook for the USD, could one assume going short against the USD during that day to be a safe trade? I assume so since I'm sure there would have been a bullish result for the USD through the NFP sometime in the past which ultimately turned bearish for the USD based on your high probability assumption.
If things play out according to the script I posted last week, then there is only little risk in shorting the USD before the NFP no matter what the NFP results are going to be.

The USD weakness is very high probability, and if we didn't take into consideration the DD cycle, we should be shorting from current levels.
So taking the DD cycle into consideration will allow us to short at a price that is a couple of hundred pips better (again,if things go according to script .. which so far they are going exactly as planned).

As you mentioned, NFP numbers may come out good, and the market reacts the opposite direction. Seen it happen plenty of times. Market's gona do what the market has to do irrespective of any figure or central bank talk.
  • #410
  • Sep 27, 2016 8:27am Sep 27, 2016 8:27am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} So what do we have here: We have 3 colored boxed that represent 3 time periods:
In blue, we have the period ranging between Sep 22 & Sep 26: This is basically the period in which the market will want you to believe that the USD is going to be weak. This comes after a relatively dovish Fed, so people are thinking that selling USD doesn't really sound like a bad idea, right? In this area the Euro will go sideways/up (already did), which adds to the conviction that EU must continue upwards, and traders will try to jump onto the boat before...
So far so good!
This played out perfectly

Sept 26 ended, and guess what? EURUSD getting hammered today

According to our script, EU will continue to go sideways/down for the period ranging between Sept27 & Oct6/7

I do not recommend selling EU! Use the dips as opportunities to buy
  • #411
  • Sep 27, 2016 8:49am Sep 27, 2016 8:49am
Once more, I'm here to show that when you believe in a trade you shouldn't let the market shake you out of it.
Do your analysis, believe in it, and wait for the market to come to you.
One day you will reach a stage when you'll be able to defend your position publicly & be vocal about it despite the endless amount of haters that are just waiting for you to do one mistake to unleash their negativity. Sorry, not this time

For those who were not following, here's our journey with GBPJPY that ended yesterday:

Below are quotes from my posts by date:

August 11: GBPJPY below 130 >>> August 16: Done
August 24: GBPJPY once again below 130
August 29: I still see JPY strengthening significantly & GBP losing more value. So holding onto my gj shorts is a no brainer from where I stand, I'm even considering adding some more once this upside momentum is lost.
Sep 16: GBPJPY: The real big move is going to be in this one! It’s no secret that I’m heavily short.
All my high probability setups signal GBP weakness and JPY strength.
I’m not looking for 50 or 100 pips on this trade, I’m waiting for a 500+ pip move
Sept 16: GJ down nicely for the day, down more than 150 pips from the last post & down more than 550 pips from the September 2nd top.
I'll be closing half of my position here at 132.9x before the weekend, and letting the the other half run.
Target remains below 130. Both the JPY strength & GBP weakness are not over yet. Today was just a little sample of what's yet to come.
Sept 20: GBPJPY: Target 130 - This has been my favorite. Down 700 pips from the highs, another 200 will not be an issue
  • #412
  • Sep 27, 2016 6:21pm Sep 27, 2016 6:21pm
hi
wow you are a genius thanks for the tip
  • #413
  • Sep 28, 2016 3:52pm Sep 28, 2016 3:52pm
Quoting FX-Jay
Once more, I'm here to show that when you believe in a trade you shouldn't let the market shake you out of it. Do your analysis, believe in it, and wait for the market to come to you. One day you will reach a stage when you'll be able to defend your position publicly & be vocal about it despite the endless amount of haters that are just waiting for you to do one mistake to unleash their negativity. Sorry, not this time For those who were not following, here's our journey with GBPJPY that ended yesterday: Below are quotes from my posts by date:...
Ha
Could you please say someting for AUD NZD AND GBP AUD
Thanks for your help
Regards.
  • #414
  • Sep 30, 2016 8:39am Sep 30, 2016 8:39am
Quoting bulent
{quote} Ha Could you please say someting for AUD NZD AND GBP AUD Thanks for your help Regards.
Hey Bulent,

The recent bullish movement on AUDNZD is nothing but a healthy retrace from the large down-leg that preceded it.
I believe we are in the process of topping & the next wave is going to be to the downside targeting at 1st 1.0240 & most likely making a new low around 1.0210 after that. We can go a little higher from here since the top is not yet confirmed, but every move upwards (if it happens) is an opportunity to sell at a better price.

Concerning GBPAUD, I don't have any recommendation or a view on it at the moment.
But, if I had to chose between a long and a short, I will definitely stick to the trend for the time being 7 favor shorts for a revisit of 1.6890

Best,
Jay
  • #415
  • Sep 30, 2016 9:07am Sep 30, 2016 9:07am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Hey Bulent, The recent bullish movement on AUDNZD is nothing but a healthy retrace from the large down-leg that preceded it. I believe we are in the process of topping & the next wave is going to be to the downside targeting at 1st 1.0240 & most likely making a new low around 1.0210 after that. We can go a little higher from here since the top is not yet confirmed, but every move upwards (if it happens) is an opportunity to sell at a better price. Concerning GBPAUD, I don't have any recommendation or a view on it at the moment. But, if I...
Hello
Thank you very muvh for your information I will follow and learn to you.
Best Regards.
Bülent
Not ; Aud/ nzd my short pozition will hold ı am happy.
  • #416
  • Oct 6, 2016 7:17am Oct 6, 2016 7:17am
it's the sixth for me and the USD is looking strong across the board on the short term. It's a matter of optimal entry now I guess either before the NFP or around the NFP. Only issue is drawdown...
Attached Image
HMSR
  • #417
  • Oct 6, 2016 11:45am Oct 6, 2016 11:45am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} I would like to avoid the MM related questions because I believe this is something that is hard to teach and is very subjective. It totally depends on each person's trading style & account size. That's why I'm basically staying away from posting trade volumes or entry prices. This brings us back to the fact that I want this thread to be a place for sharing/discussing setups rather than trades & trading techniques. But just to answer your question for this time, I'm already in the USDCHF short boat from 0.9655 & will be more than willing...
If you feel appropriate, it will help traders like me to be exposed to different ideas of MM. You may share how you use MM in general giving just an example. You don't have to post anything related to volumes or entries now or in future.

Your analysis is good.

Thank you.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #418
  • Oct 6, 2016 2:00pm Oct 6, 2016 2:00pm
Hey guys,

I've been getting lots of PMs recently. I promise to read & reply to them all during the weekend.

I just want to give a quick update before FOMC for those who showed interest in the last set of 'timing' posts I've made (posts # 398 through 410).

Here's the main updates:

1- The bias towards a large USD weakness wave keeps on getting bigger every single day. Frankly, I haven't had such an extreme bias / high probability trade since the beginning of the year, and if you've been following me, you know that I did have some pretty strong biases in the past & you'll know how that usually ends. This one tops them all.

2- The prediction of the timing/expected market movement as predicted in posts 401 & 402 have been flawless so far. Which is amazing!
I have run a final test today to project the date of the bottom of the current DD cycle. 2 weeks ago the projected bottom of the DD cycle (which is the projected top in USD strength) was between the 6th and 7th of October. Today the projected date I got was between the 7th and 10th of October.

I would like to rely more on the most recent projection since its accuracy should be higher given that it is fed with more data.
This leads me to conclude that were still going to see a push in USD strength after today's (oct 6) closing.
Still would like to see EU clearing 1.1105

3- The scenario that made most sense 2 weeks ago was that either the NFP figures are going to come out very bad, and the USD will directly tank ; or the NFP figures will come out good > the market spikes both ways > then the USD weakens despite the good numbers .

Given the new (yet close) projection dates. I would like to add a 3rd scenario that now also make sense to me:
The NFP figures will come out positive to the $, the $ will end the week with more strength, and then early next week (or even during the weekend), some bad news &/or rumor will come out to allow the $ to tumble into the end of October.

** I repeat once again, no matter what scenario plays out, I only recommend shorting the USD (mainly by buying EURUSD & selling USDJPY), & in no way encourage buying USD at this point in time no matter what the NFP results are going to be.

I personally entered into 33% of my USD shorts in the last couple of days. I will add another 33% tomorrow pre FOMC IF the USD continues to strengthen during the Asian & Europian session. The last 33% will be post FOMC (Friday + Monday). If the USD doesn't continue to strengthen pre FOMC, then I will just take 12% pre FOMC & 55% post FOMC.

Best,
Jay
  • #419
  • Edited Oct 8, 2016 2:23am Oct 7, 2016 3:59am | Edited Oct 8, 2016 2:23am
EURUSD is at a 2 month low. It would be motivation for a buy whilst considering the US NFP is due.

If FXJAY is right, it's going to be a good month.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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HMSR
  • #420
  • Oct 8, 2016 2:57pm Oct 8, 2016 2:57pm
Quoting simnz
{quote} If you feel appropriate, it will help traders like me to be exposed to different ideas of MM. You may share how you use MM in general giving just an example. You don't have to post anything related to volumes or entries now or in future. Your analysis is good. Thank you.
Hey Simnz,

Thanks for your message.
I'll do my best to get a little more involved in sharing some MM tips in the future.
I'm even considering taking this one step further & sharing the current real test account for everyone to see me managing the trades in real time.
This is probably going to happen once I have stabilized the DD at a low enough level that will be safe & professional in order not to encourage any reckless trading behaviors.

Best,
Jay
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