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Jay's High Probability Setups

  • #381
  • Sep 21, 2016 4:14pm Sep 21, 2016 4:14pm
Hey Jay, you inspire
Attached Image
  • #382
  • Sep 21, 2016 9:53pm Sep 21, 2016 9:53pm
Hi Jay, what's the basis of High probability setups? Will you teach us something or giving ideas or keeping it just Signal page?
Never Gamble Forex
  • #383
  • Sep 22, 2016 3:53am Sep 22, 2016 3:53am
Quoting yesyoucan
Hi Jay, what's the basis of High probability setups? Will you teach us something or giving ideas or keeping it just Signal page?
I hope setup will not be shared with nobody
  • #384
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:06am Sep 22, 2016 9:06am
Quoting PPigh77
{quote} I hope setup will not be shared with nobody
If that's holy grail then shouldn't be disclosed anywhere. However I never follow any signals , trade your own logic you'll be good trader one day.
Never Gamble Forex
  • #385
  • Sep 22, 2016 10:27am Sep 22, 2016 10:27am
Quoting yesyoucan
{quote} If that's holy grail then shouldn't be disclosed anywhere. However I never follow any signals , trade your own logic you'll be good trader one day.
at least read the 20 pages
Solutions ONLY!!!
  • #386
  • Sep 22, 2016 10:58am Sep 22, 2016 10:58am
Quoting BillYon
{quote} at least read the 20 pages
I read of course ..else why should I subscribed? Reading has no harm.
Never Gamble Forex
  • #387
  • Sep 23, 2016 1:08am Sep 23, 2016 1:08am
Quoting Rcubic
Hey Jay, you inspire {image}
Hey Rcubic,

Those are some decent gains! Congrats. I hope you're not neglecting the MM
Keep it up
  • #388
  • Sep 23, 2016 1:11am Sep 23, 2016 1:11am
Quoting yesyoucan
Hi Jay, what's the basis of High probability setups? Will you teach us something or giving ideas or keeping it just Signal page?
Hey there,

The answer to your question could be found on the 1st post of this thread:

"This is where I will be posting some high probability trades based on my personal study of the market.

As you may have noticed, this thread is under the "Trading Journals" section not the "Trading Systems" section, so if you are waiting for someone to teach you a system or as some like to call it, some 'secret', this is not the place to be.

Despite being known for the TZ concept on FF, this thread is not a continuation or in any way related to any other thread I have participated in.
The setups are the result of my experience with different concepts that include (but are not limited to) TZ, Market Probabilities, Trend Trading, Currency Strength, and Sentiment Analysis.

If you would like to participate, I would appreciate it if you could limit the participation to why you agree/disagree with the setups posted.
Charts/Analysis are always welcome whether you are with or against my calls. A healthy debate and exchange of views is the best way to learn & advance for both the participant and viewers."
  • #389
  • Edited 1:43am Sep 23, 2016 1:25am | Edited 1:43am
Quoting yesyoucan
{quote} If that's holy grail then shouldn't be disclosed anywhere. However I never follow any signals , trade your own logic you'll be good trader one day.
There's no holy grail here. It's just me sharing some of my setups based on my view of the market.
I'm not even sharing a system, for it to be called a holy grail.
The thread is called "high probability setups", that by itself nullifies the holy grail theory. A Holy Grail should have Holy setups, mine are just High probability.
P.S. high probability is still a probability


I am currently working on developing a system based on the medium/long term high probability setups.
Once I feel that it is good enough to share from both Risk & Return perspectives, I may share it in a thread under the Trading Systems section.
For the time being I'm done & pleased with the manual backtesting of this system idea, I'm done & pleased with the Demo testing too, and I'm 9 months into the real testing. I'm not yet pleased with the results from a professional point of view (from a retailer's point of view, the results are more than great). I'm working on optimizing few issues & have targets that I would like to achieve.
I have no time limits, the longer it takes, the bigger the track record will be, the more confident people who will be reading about it will be about how good it is.
  • #390
  • Sep 23, 2016 1:30am Sep 23, 2016 1:30am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} We did indeed get the DD mentioned above. I have mixed feelings about this. I'm not so happy to have to sit in DD, but I'm glad that history is nicely repeating itself & giving us better market predictability. The DD cycle is starting to look a little predictable, thus giving me a better chance day after day to reduce it for the future & know when to not add to my position. As you can see in the pic below the DD this time has been of a lesser magnitude. The question is, will we be heading a little further down ? or is a new equity high underway?...
GBPJPY did indeed top that Friday, and as expected a new equity high was reached by riding the JPY strength / GBP weakness train
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Progress.PNG Size: 32 KB
  • #391
  • Sep 23, 2016 1:41am Sep 23, 2016 1:41am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} GBPJPY did indeed top that Friday, and as expected a new equity high was reached by riding the JPY strength / GBP weakness train {image}
I'm fairly convinced that the next DD cycle is going to start early next week, so I'm planning to significantly reduce whatever positions I have left to reduce the magnitude of the possible DD.

As time passes, you'll see the equity curve get smoother & less volatile. That's partly due to my work on optimizing the timing & adjusting lot sizes.

Here's the development in terms of DD:

Again, the peaks are getting lower as we progress. Still trying to find the best balance that will allow me to keep the return relatively high with risk being relatively low. Which bring us to the issue of the sharp ratio that I'm the least happy about. The Sharp ratio after 9 months is 0.45, which according to my standards is very low. The sharp ration of my main account is 1.2, and I would like to increase the sharp ratio of this strategy being tested to at least 1 before calling it a reliable strategy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DD.PNG Size: 23 KB
  • #392
  • Sep 23, 2016 2:41am Sep 23, 2016 2:41am
Great job on this thread, I have a similar outlook to trading as you do in this thread. Currency strengths and market cycles are all very important in a short to medium term style of trading.

All the best and i'll keep an eye on your thread

Just my 2 cents worth
  • #393
  • Sep 23, 2016 3:35am Sep 23, 2016 3:35am
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} Hey there, The answer to your question could be found on the 1st post of this thread: "This is where I will be posting some high probability trades based on my personal study of the market. As you may have noticed, this thread is under the "Trading Journals" section not the "Trading Systems" section, so if you are waiting for someone to teach you a system or as some like to call it, some 'secret', this is not the place to be. Despite being known for the TZ concept on FF, this thread is not a continuation or in any way related to any other...
Enough wisely explained . I like your lines .
Never Gamble Forex
  • #394
  • Sep 23, 2016 4:26am Sep 23, 2016 4:26am
Quoting yesyoucan
{quote} If that's holy grail then shouldn't be disclosed anywhere. However I never follow any signals , trade your own logic you'll be good trader one day.
The TZ basic concept is at a first approach ridiculous. I spent some months to get the real meaning, probably I am not a good trader but I get my money every month and I am satisfied. And everything was possible only thanks to FX-Jay that gave me motivation simply publishing his performances.
  • #395
  • Sep 23, 2016 4:37am Sep 23, 2016 4:37am
Hi Jay. As an amateur trader, this concept of dd cycles have always happened to me and I never thought about them. Thanks for taking the time to share your knowledge. We all become better traders when this kind of concepts are assimilated.

Really interesting stuff in this thread. All the best.
  • #396
  • Sep 23, 2016 2:53pm Sep 23, 2016 2:53pm
Quoting Guy Mann
Great job on this thread, I have a similar outlook to trading as you do in this thread. Currency strengths and market cycles are all very important in a short to medium term style of trading. All the best and i'll keep an eye on your thread
Thanks for your positive message mate. I'll be sharing my planned next 'big' trade setup soon, so feel free to share your opinion, and whether you'll agree or disagree with it.

Best,
Jay
  • #397
  • Sep 23, 2016 3:03pm Sep 23, 2016 3:03pm
Quoting kornrogers
Hi Jay. As an amateur trader, this concept of dd cycles have always happened to me and I never thought about them. Thanks for taking the time to share your knowledge. We all become better traders when this kind of concepts are assimilated. Really interesting stuff in this thread. All the best.
Thanks Kornrogers,

That's what I believe such forums are all about, and that's what keep me coming time after time despite the amount of endless negativity & trolling.
If you search well enough between the tons of negative/hate posts, you'll always find some gems that will help you get better whether you're an amateur or a professional; successful or unsuccessful.

I hope to be able to keep this thread a clean space to help motivate & share constructive conversations with like minded positive people that thrive to progress rather than get stuck in negativity.

Best,
Jay
  • #398
  • Sep 23, 2016 3:21pm Sep 23, 2016 3:21pm
Okay guys, I've shared this with a couple of trading buddies, but I've been hesitating to publicly share it because I'm not yet 100% confident with my timing calculations for medium term trade setups.

However, following the positive comments I got today on the thread & by PM, I decided to share this on the hopes that someone may find it useful in formulating their trading plan for the next coming weeks.

Please do not trade this unless it fits your plans and analysis of the market!

I usually only publicly share the highest probability trades that I encounter, that's why I'm not afraid to continuously defend my positions over and over even when the market seems to be completely moving in a different way; I'm sure that in the end my targets will be hit.
For this setup however, I'm going to try to depend on time targets rather than price targets. I've done this successfully with short term trades, and now I'm attempting it with the medium term setups. The key word here is "attempting"!

Setup will follow on the next post ...
  • #399
  • Edited 3:36pm Sep 23, 2016 3:22pm | Edited 3:36pm
Intellectual altruism = "given the opportunity, people will donate their time and brainpower to make the world better"

Thanks Jay for being one of this persons. I will keep checking the thread, to say the truth, whenever there's a new post, my brain starts to salivate like pavlov's dog

Just to clarify, and just in case you somehow feel responsible for something, I don't come here to strictly follow you're signals, cause i'm in the grid, hedge and martingale thing and only trade eur/usd. But definitely all your posts in this thread are a fresh enlightenment for the people that use this forum.

Good luck and see you all next week.
  • #400
  • Sep 23, 2016 3:46pm Sep 23, 2016 3:46pm
My current analysis is showing that the next big move will be in USD.
USD weakness to be exact.

If probabilities are pointing for USD weakness, then the most obvious thing to do would be to Sell USD, right?
Well, yea .. I'll definitely not be long on USD, but here's where the timing factor I'm trying to tackle comes into play.

At this moment in time, my portfolio should be holding a significant amount of USD short positions mainly through the following (largest to smallest):
Short USD/JPY ; Short USD/CHF ; Long EUR/USD ; Long NZD/USD ; Long AUD/USD

However, as I have stated before, there is a pattern of DD when it comes to medium term trades. & I project the next DD cycle to start early next week.
Since my largest position will be in USD shorts, then obviously the DD is going to come from this accumulated position.
I've went through the process of regression analysis that allowed me to project the bottoming of the DD to be between the 6th & 7th of October.
What does that mean?

This means that if history is to repeat itself like it usually does, I should be now holding a relatively big position in USD shorts. This position will go against me as of early next week, I'll be conservatively adding more to my position, and the USD will then top on the 6th/7th of October & then starts declining below the levels that we are at today, which will mean new high on my equity curve.

What I'm planning to do this time is to avoid the DD altogether. In order to do so, I will sit on the sidelines when it comes to USD weakness trades & enter a full position in early October around the time the projected DD should be ending.

*Am I risking missing out on the very high probability USD weakness trade?: YES
*Why not buy USD from now till October 6 if you're so sure that there will be DD in that period?: I follow the trend & high probabilities. So I would rather miss out on profits if my timing is wrong rather than get stuck in a position that I don't believe in.
*Can you explain more; with a chart perhaps?: YES, if interested, continue reading into the next post
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