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The Really Useless Thread

  • #143,541
  • Edited 10:28am Sep 27, 2016 10:01am | Edited 10:28am
Watch for a roll ... Expecting
Â
Edit : 1.1233x may bring e/u to resume the downtrend & a close below 1.1208xÂ
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,542
  • Sep 27, 2016 10:05am Sep 27, 2016 10:05am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} Only people that constantly post their scorecards and quote themselves are the online pretenders looking for followers and a red flag. ie. EU thread wannabes or commercial
Pharmor...you are here in this forum since a while. You should know how much I hate commercial members..a lot of time I posted that I dont want to sell anything, I dont want to prove anything.
You should know I have no interest in getting followers...I have my lovely job and I have my hobbies, like trading. Yeah...a 'nice work adam' would be great, but I don't make a festival, because noone react to my posts like that...I'm not here for that.
I always raised my voice against bullying and dominance in EurUsd thread.
I always call people weak, who think their opinion is more important or who think flag means anything. Red flag is important for those, who has minority syndrome.
All I wanted to do is to help/encourage those, who need assist/helping hand in live trading. I think it has more value, than just posting about how smart I am, how wide spectrum I understand of market. But I admire your thouths guys, keep up the good work and I will let the Really useless thread to be a fundamental forum. No need hard feelings.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #143,543
  • Sep 27, 2016 10:29am Sep 27, 2016 10:29am
Quoting hoom
{quote} ...Sterling trying to avoid a  range has a certain timeline ?
Sterling (GU) is not about if but when but  timing is a bit more complex at these levels as we already trading 30 yrs lows and ialready devalued a huge amount for such a ahort period of time.

2 fronts for Sterling:

-> On the mid/long term for article 50 etc. Thngs have turned sour on the Brexit front, as for today (it will change for better or worse later) we are aligning for a HARD brexit.

They are even extreme concerns that they will loose even accrss to the common market. Trading those expectations is the capitulation move (1.22xx etc) which is the one in play for the macro swing.

-> on the short term we have the BOE play via slow down and uncertainty for Q3/Q4. Even the minimum sneeze in UK numbers will trigger BOE bazzoka 2.0 in Nov.
Trading those expectations will unlock the current lows for a break to the 1.26xx handle.

-> Finally and to put the cream on top we have the Dollar front with FED hikes which is/has provided the current ebb &flow of the legs.Â

On the one side FED kicking the can for eager sellers to load/reload shorts higer and to the other side to completely wipe out any Sterling buyers and pretty much kill any options to trade above the 1.36xx handle for the foreseeable future....

As you can see the only 'buyers' chance in sterling is via a short squeeze to load higher but as for today (and worst with a giid NFP) nobody in the world will buy Sterling until the storm is pass....

-> on the Euro. 'Any minute' between ' ' means that we are paraphrasing options terms in a 'time decay' play. Things are getting sour in the Brexit front and every day we get closer to FED hikes by default not by reports....

so without any news to support the euro from any front, Â it can trip itself to the floor as nobody will defend the floor for a few handles once we take the current lows.

For reference, assuming nothing new in the Euro, the FED hikes support is on the 1.09x handle for the expectations play and 1.074x for the actual play...To the other side is the same as in the case of Sterling as it will be a Dollar play...Â

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,544
  • Sep 27, 2016 10:55am Sep 27, 2016 10:55am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Sterling (GU) is not about if but when but timing is a bit more complex at these levels as we already trading 30 yrs lows and ialready devalued a huge amount for such a ahort period of time. 2 fronts for Sterling: -> On the mid/long term for article 50 etc. Thngs have turned sour on the Brexit front, as for today (it will change for better or worse later) we are aligning for a HARD brexit. They are even extreme concerns that they will loose even accrss to the common market. Trading those expectations is the capitulation move (1.22xx etc)...
Basically it's same trades same all but as we trade expectations and get closer to the time limit [key datas , more headlines...] that should translate into ebb and flow of

legs . Now how we trade these legs if they are taking too much time to pan out ? we know the basics , we have the tools and ready to pull the trigger but for the sake

of the trade , is it woth it time wise ? Aren't we going to get lost in the intraday flows and dull moves even weeks of waiting in a compression range or a level that won't

break after X attempts to get stopped everytime on trailing ? at times like these I envy those low TFs scalpers grabbing what they can and look at the high TFs just for

macro direction !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,545
  • Sep 27, 2016 11:03am Sep 27, 2016 11:03am
Quoting hoom
{quote} Basically it's same trades same all but as we trade expectations and get closer to the time limit [key datas , more headlines...] that should translate into ebb and flow of legs . Now how we trade these legs if they are taking too much time to pan out ? we know the basics , we have the tools and ready to pull the trigger but for the sake of the trade , is it woth it time wise ? Aren't we going to get lost in the intraday flows and dull moves even weeks of waiting in a compression range or a level that won't break after X attempts to get...
Now you are getting off track ... If you correlate the major moves with the intraday moves obviously you will get lost ... This moves in e/u has almost practically changed every traders mind ... This is the game of patience ... Remember what sisse told before the iteration ... It has no time limits ... And the main fundamentals doesn't gets played so easily .... Sooner or later it will be paid off ...ÂÂ
ÂÂ
If you have a good r:r then yes it's worth it ....ÂÂ
Â
Edit : what do you think how much pips you can accumulate on +/- 200 pips compressed range ...it's not written anywhere in the books to trade daily ... If you still wanna trade ... Try understand how scalpers earn ...Â
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,546
  • Sep 27, 2016 11:13am Sep 27, 2016 11:13am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Now you are getting off track ... If you correlate the major moves with the intraday moves obviously you will get lost ... This moves in e/u has almost practically changed every traders mind ... This is the game of patience ... Remember what sisse told before the iteration ... It has no time limits ... And the main fundamentals doesn't gets played so easily .... Sooner or later it will be paid off ...  If you have a good r:r then yes it's worth it ....Â
Let me be clear , my comments has nothing to do with my actual trades and I am in no case losing patience or getting off track , fortunately

I am just pointing out a fact that is disturbing for most who hasn't been in the market for too long .

I do not question Sisse iteration and no one should as it is a rather simple exercice to make a trade r:r wise at certain timings .

Finally , I am certainly not correlating major moves with intraday ones , I am trying to point out the opposite , that intraday moves could get one off track easily if major

move takes too much time to pan out thus my question about it being worth it time wise .

I hope this clears it out.
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,547
  • Sep 27, 2016 11:15am Sep 27, 2016 11:15am
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Edit : what do you think how much pips you can accumulate on +/- 200 pips compressed range ...it's not written anywhere in the books to trade daily ... If you still wanna trade ... Try understand how scalpers earn ...
Believe me , I undesrtand how scalpers earn more than you do
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,548
  • Sep 27, 2016 11:18am Sep 27, 2016 11:18am
Quoting hoom
{quote} Let me be clear , my comments has nothing to do with my actual trades and I am in no case losing patience or getting off track , fortunately I am just pointing out a fact that is disturbing for most who hasn't been in the market for too long . I do not question Sisse iteration and no one should as it is a rather simple exercice to make a trade r:r wise at certain timings . Finally , I am certainly not correlating major moves with intraday ones , I am trying to point out the opposite , that intraday moves could get one off track easily...
 
Yes it cleared everything ... On way the other you are asking the question which sisse already gave hint for or answered before... I think buddy you are not following him the way other people does ...
Any ways it was my thinking if you felt bad then no problem ... You be happy your way I will be happy my way ....:-)
Re-Incarnated
  • #143,549
  • Sep 27, 2016 12:57pm Sep 27, 2016 12:57pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Looks like EU cleared some weak hands while I was gone so now- following our little candlestick patterns sisse was kind enough to post- can we agree that 1.1198 is the next make or break point for bears to take? So far it's either triggered stops or large buyers....but they'd be buying into a nasty bearish 4 hour candle and fundamental news that is USD positive...so my money is on cleared stops
I was thinking 1220 for bears to take with a daily close if they mean biz. It's the low on previous 1D candle after rejected at highs and this one closing lower would be a good sign for sellers. Not to mention 1220 is looking awfully 'flippy' ('flippant'?)as of late:
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  • #143,550
  • Sep 27, 2016 2:24pm Sep 27, 2016 2:24pm
Quoting goosebone
{quote} I was thinking 1220 for bears to take with a daily close if they mean biz. It's the low on previous 1D candle after rejected at highs and this one closing lower would be a good sign for sellers. Not to mention 1220 is looking awfully 'flippy' ('flippant'?)as of late: {image}
Engulfing bear was good if you're short, plus off of mofu norm if you're into that kind of stuff....chart posted sometime back
  • #143,551
  • Sep 27, 2016 2:53pm Sep 27, 2016 2:53pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} norm if you're into that kind of stuff....
Who me?
  • #143,552
  • Edited 3:47pm Sep 27, 2016 3:14pm | Edited 3:47pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} ? we know the basics , we have the tools and ready to pull the trigger but for the sake of the trade , is it woth it time wise ? Aren't we going to get lost in the intraday flows and dull moves even weeks of waiting in a compression range or a level that won't break after X attempt.... !
Let me answer it in very simple and practical words:
If you are in the mid term swing short you should be fully loaded or you are a plain 'idiot' (bare with me on this one x a moment). Why:

1. Becuase in Neutral you trade to the inside and avoid fading the middle

2. Because you should have loaded the core of the position with cheap tickets and already have a decent a save free matress to pretty much minimize all risk (this is our job remember.... minimize risk not count unrealized gains)...
3. And more importantly you are and can hold short Euro not making losses holding chop on rollovers if you are in spot.

If you are fading the middle and holding longs, you should be sittig very tight as there is neither time or room for manoeuvre....

On the FA side, we are still neutral but there is very little options on the horizon to the upside except FED flop or an unexpected event while to the downside we have FED, Brexit and economic slowdown all in sight for potential triggers....

So whatbis the answer to your question?..

No you sit tight and trade aaccordingly.

You are witnessig and trading live a mid term swing from (hopefully) start to formation, break and end. So it takes an 'awful' long time in 'real' time but let see hiw it will 'feel' after is done....

As you know we never leave a conversation open in the thread so failure or not im bookmarking this one as i have the feeling that this swing iteration will leave a unique and invaluable trading lesson for some.

Let see how it plays out but no outcome will be bad now...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #143,553
  • Sep 27, 2016 6:03pm Sep 27, 2016 6:03pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Let me answer it in very simple and practical words: If you are in the mid term swing short you should be fully loaded or you are a plain 'idiot' (bare with me on this one x a moment). Why: 1. Becuase in Neutral you trade to the inside and avoid fading the middle 2. Because you should have loaded the core of the position with cheap tickets and already have a decent a save free matress to pretty much minimize all risk (this is our job remember.... minimize risk not count unrealized gains)... 3. And more importantly you are and can hold short...
That's the whole point of me asking those questions

I have my mid term trades [core short Euro from above] and I am trading the iterations live also [ 1 pip = 1$ ] for the sake of the exemple .

Let's talk about minimizing risk , if one is to be in the mid term trade , then my target MM wise would be a % of my capital on that trade . In that case , if I am to wait a

long time for the move to pan out then I would expect a satisfying return compared to what I am investing and here we talk about money and time .

If I am willing to take swing trades that take so much time then I am willing to have a bigger return thus one has to have the required capital for such trade .

Again , these remarks aren't about my actual trades and I should add that I have the privilege to trade very big lots compared to most retails but my point is for

someone who is willing to make better returns with let's say low capital ie disadvantage of time compared to MM, would it be wiser to aim for short term swings only at

first ! which leads us to the question :

are short term trades reliable in the long run considering how markets could be stuck in a tight range for a very long time ? In EURUSD case as the outlook is neutral ,

[short/mid term] we trade from outside to the inside , with the bunch of data in the calendar that could or could not move the market in a certain direction [ we

discussed that market is sometimes "biased" and in need for a push from data ] so what's the point of trying to analyse every daily flow if we aren't going to trade it

accordingly !

Finally , you posted a cheat sheet on how to pick cheap tickets so what is the best technique to trade those tickets [trailing ??] without being stopped out due to a game

changer or knee jerk reaction on certain headlines ... thus patience time would have led to nothing !

PS: trade plan is bullish USD based on expectations via FED , bearish EURO via Brexit and economy slowdown so EURUSD bearish , we have extreme levels on neutral

outlook explained via many charts in this thread , how to trade them is from outside to inside , nothing to do in middle , just sit tight and try to overlook the daily flows

which could be misleading sometimes regarding the macro view and general direction .
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #143,554
  • Sep 27, 2016 6:30pm Sep 27, 2016 6:30pm
I wish it would end so we could just get on with the next phase of sisse's plans before Christmas
  • #143,555
  • Sep 27, 2016 7:09pm Sep 27, 2016 7:09pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} That's the whole point of me asking those questions I have my mid term trades [core short Euro from above] and I am trading the iterations live also [ 1 pip = 1$ ] for the sake of the exemple . Let's talk about minimizing risk , if one is to be in the mid term trade , then my target MM wise would be a % of my capital on that trade . In that case , if I am to wait a long time for the move to pan out then I would expect a satisfying return compared to what I am investing and here we talk about money and time . If I am willing to take swing...
This is good question(s). I look forward to reading some further discussion about it. Im lucky there's others like yourself here in the thread better able than I am to articulate questions I share but don't know very well how to ask.
  • #143,556
  • Sep 27, 2016 8:26pm Sep 27, 2016 8:26pm
Quoting hoom
{quote} That's the whole point of me asking those questions . . ..
You already have the answer. Unless, I'm holding the high of the high in 2014. Why hold a ranging pair - it has being ranging 1.15xxx - 1.05xx since Feb 2015 and the price is getting more and more compact to 1.13x to 1.10.

Thanks for your very valid questions that help me see the light of time and money.
  • #143,557
  • Sep 27, 2016 9:20pm Sep 27, 2016 9:20pm
do any of you use any kinds of "sentiment" index type tools? (equity related) ...do you get any use out of them? Do you know of any (that are free) that present real-time sentiment estimations based on social media and/or financail press data mining?

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
http://www.market-harmonics.com/free...ntiment/nu.htm
https://ycharts.com/indicators/inves...timent_bullish
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,558
  • Sep 27, 2016 10:37pm Sep 27, 2016 10:37pm
go big or go home....
Inserted Video
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,559
  • Edited 11:28pm Sep 27, 2016 10:53pm | Edited 11:28pm
Quoting The Fool
Do you know of any (that are free) that present real-time sentiment estimations based on social media and/or financail press data mining?
like these....

https://www.dataminr.com/products/
https://psychsignal.com/#index
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143,560
  • Sep 27, 2016 11:18pm Sep 27, 2016 11:18pm
the MXN peso is a continuous, real-time poll for DJT's prospects for election, note the 2-3% peso gain during last night's debate...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-09-27_2314peso.png Size: 57 KB
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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