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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #461
  • Sep 27, 2016 9:07am Sep 27, 2016 9:07am
If confirmation above overnight high (GB high) will succeed we could continue higher to test the lower daily bracket high at 30463 (base also of the doble pass pit gap)
If it will fail above GB: back to the main poc at 2968.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #462
  • Sep 27, 2016 9:09am Sep 27, 2016 9:09am
Quoting Lock
If confirmation above overnight high (GB high) will succeed we could continue higher to test the lower daily bracket high at 30463 (base also of the doble pass pit gap) If it will fail above GB: back to the main poc at 2968.
rather

D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #463
  • Sep 27, 2016 9:09am Sep 27, 2016 9:09am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} NY IB is being expanded much the price will not move for a long distance, It shoud come to the range. Best D.P.
Absolutely possible. Also for now I see no volume in this breakout. But let' see if at least it will able to perform a test above GB high or not.

I see nothing here. No test at overnight high. Back to breakeven. Let's see C period.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #464
  • Sep 27, 2016 9:45am Sep 27, 2016 9:45am
C period tested below news (B low) and half back. I noticed also a lot of single pips for A period. Maybe it want to correct some of it. (after 2968 I mean)

Anyhow this market has no idea of what to do. We are up and down preUS open (29885) for 5 periods now. Great indecision and lack of confidence in any direction. If it will continue like this I'll be off.

PS: USDX is attempting a test above. So we have also a divergence now.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #465
  • Sep 27, 2016 9:57am Sep 27, 2016 9:57am
Quoting Lock
C period tested below news (B low) and half back. I noticed also a lot of single pips for A period. Maybe it want to correct some of it. (after 2968 I mean) Anyhow this market has no idea of what to do. We are up and down preUS open (29885) for 5 periods now. Great indecision and lack of confidence in any direction. If it will continue like this I'll be off. PS: USDX is attempting a test above. So we have also a divergence now.
The hidden gap of 2964-2971 is involved in the game.
So, the retrace is objectively possible

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #466
  • Sep 27, 2016 10:08am Sep 27, 2016 10:08am
Current D period high is at preUS open (again). Take this information forward.
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  • #467
  • Sep 27, 2016 10:12am Sep 27, 2016 10:12am
Quoting Lock
Current D period high is at preUS open (again). Take this information forward.
And infact price went back to it. D is inside bar of C. If it will remain like this we could have a breakout. But...

I'm off. Whatever.

Have a nice continuation!
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #468
  • Sep 27, 2016 10:15am Sep 27, 2016 10:15am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} The hidden gap of 2964-2971 is involved in the game. So, the retrace is objectively possible Best D.P.
Yes but this market is too uncertain. We have 6 periods around preUS open now. As I wrote, we could see something if it will remain in balance for a while and then break from it. Best L.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #469
  • Edited 12:03pm Sep 27, 2016 11:28am | Edited 12:03pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} Yes but this market is too uncertain. We have 6 periods around preUS open now. As I wrote, we could see something if it will remain in balance for a while and then break from it. Best L.
Just a note about what is going one here.

C period was only 1 single pip below B period low, as D period was only 1 single pip below C period low. So technically C period was inside bar of B as D period was inside bar of C.
This was a full balance. Eventually E period broke out from balance aiming to the lower daily bracket high 30463. This is one of the two hypothesis we wrote about here at post 455. And repeated here at post 461. (edit)
Having said this, I underline the fact that this move is very weak, because it didn't correct any of the lower weaknesses nor it is supported by strong timeframes during its path upwards.

For instance:

  1. A period low is at yesterday open (2953) and has too many single pips
  2. D period low is exactly at yesterday pit unchanged (29737)
  3. E period low is at preUS open (29885 where we spent 6 periods up and down also)
  4. F period low is at round number 3000

So this is short covering, meaning old business. Consequently it is weak and I suggest to carry this information forward. I also think that currently we have a lot of weak hands (leggards) piling on this move. This will lead inexorably to inventories too long.

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #470
  • Sep 27, 2016 8:33pm Sep 27, 2016 8:33pm
what happen with the round number.. 1.3000??
seem its hard to leave from there.... or just the london trader still love selling cable?
  • #471
  • Sep 28, 2016 12:50am Sep 28, 2016 12:50am
Quoting lolik79
what happen with the round number.. 1.3000?? seem its hard to leave from there.... or just the london trader still love selling cable?

And in fact Tokyo spent most of the session around it.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #472
  • Edited 1:54am Sep 28, 2016 1:17am | Edited 1:54am
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Tonight Sydney and Tokyo sessions corrected some of the weak pit action from yesterday. Note that the yesterday pit session profile has a perfect "P" shape: an other confirmation of its short covering nature.
The main factor here is the presence of two pit gap zones above and below: they both need a correction but market seems not so secure about the sequence of this corrective action.
Above we have a GB double pass gap (3034-30464) and an other double pass gap left by pit sessions (at 30464-3065 )
Below we got the double pass pit gap (28875-2902).

The presence of all this gaps above and below is the clear evidence of the lack of conviction of this market.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 83 KB


Considering a bigger perspective, we can easly see the numerous attempts at the top of the lower daily bracket. Current price position suggest the possibility of a new attempt there: and the lower daily bracket high (30464) is exactly between the GB double pass gap (3034-30464) and the double pass gap left by pit sessions ( 30464-3065 )

If this further test will happen and will conclude with a further failure, we could aim at the bottom of the lower daily bracket, where we will find the double pass pit gap (28875-2902) and the pit poor low from the 15 of August.

If this possible test will instead succeed, we could aim at the higher daily bracket low (31187) for a further test above it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image2.png Size: 78 KB


Note that currently Tokyo session is acting at the top of yesterday GB session (30084). If it will close above it we will have a GB gap higher.

  1. If it will be the case and if this possible gap will be preserved, we could continue higher in the direction of the lower daily bracket high (30464).
  2. If instead Tokyo will close inside yesterday GB range, we have to expect initial acceptation of yesterday GB range (2936-30084) and aventually a possible test below and/or above it.
  3. If GB will open with a gap higher and it will retrace it immediately, we could experience a partial or even a full retracement of the yesterday GB session range (2936-30084).

Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #473
  • Sep 28, 2016 2:09am Sep 28, 2016 2:09am
So, GB opens with a gap higher. Then tests immediately the Tokyo high and fails once there. But the gap is still in place although reduced in size.

Price went back to open 3 times now. Not a sign of strength and conviction. Also open price is the half back of the move down from 09.22.

Very very difficult market here. Too much indecision. Weak partecipants only.

09:27 Gap higher fully retraced. Now we could have two options: acceptation inside yesterday range or rejection and consequently up again for a new test of Tokyo high. Acceptation means at least a couple of m30 periods closed inside yesterday GB range. If you are seelling this, your structural SL should be above Tokyo high.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #474
  • Sep 28, 2016 2:33am Sep 28, 2016 2:33am
B period made a poor low and then went back to half back (that is also open price!): very very weak market here. Watch out!

Note the automatic buy below the gap: as written multiple times this is a normal reaction of weak hands below a gap higher or above a gap lower when retraced.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #475
  • Sep 28, 2016 2:37am Sep 28, 2016 2:37am
Quoting Lock
B period made a poor low and then went back to half back (that is also open price!): very very weak market here. Watch out! Note the automatic buy below the gap: as written multiple times this is a normal reaction of weak hands below a gap higher or above a gap lower when retraced.
no conviction at all.
I have already had 2 B/E hit at any direction

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #476
  • Sep 28, 2016 2:42am Sep 28, 2016 2:42am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} no conviction at all. I have already had 2 B/E hit at any direction Best D.P.
In fact. This has been a very weak environment for months, unfortunately. And in days like this one, when we are going to have both Draghi's and Yellen's speaches, it's even worse than normal. Best L.

PS: right now we have A period close above yesterday B range high and B period balancing below current GB half back. If B period will close above yesterday range we could interpret this fact as a rejection of that range. If instead B will close below yesterday high we will have to wait for C period close in order to understand market intentions.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #477
  • Sep 28, 2016 2:52am Sep 28, 2016 2:52am
09:50 Attempted test of Tokyo low and correction of A B periods initial poor low. For continuation downside we need B and upcoming C periods well below yesterday GB range high at 30084 and possibly also below Tokyo low at 2991. Remember that B period high is at open/initial HB so it is weak.
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #478
  • Sep 28, 2016 2:53am Sep 28, 2016 2:53am
Quoting Lock
{quote} In fact. This has been a very weak environment for months, unfortunately. And in days like this one, when we are going to have both Draghi's and Yellen's speaches, it's even worse than normal. Best L. PS: right now we have A period close above yesterday B range high and B period balancing below current GB half back. If B period will close above yesterday range we could interpret this fact as a rejection of that range. If instead B will close below yesterday high we will have to wait for C period close in order to understand market intentions....
Let us play inside London VA.

long @3000
T/P 30220

Best
D.P.
Hunting High and Low
  • #479
  • Sep 28, 2016 3:05am Sep 28, 2016 3:05am
What the hell??
Ubi maior minor cessat
  • #480
  • Sep 28, 2016 3:08am Sep 28, 2016 3:08am
Quoting Dr.Phoenix
{quote} Let us play inside London VA. long @3000 T/P 30220 Best D.P.
Hi Dr. It is so easy to get frustrated with this market, ... Trade safe
Striving for consistency
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