The Paradox System | Page 323 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The paradox System 2023 (for beginners) 724 replies

Paradox System: post your entry here 12 replies

Paradox system avg monthly ROR for last 12 months 33 replies

Learning the Paradox System=Set up / Trade Plan / Results Only 1 reply

lets talk about the system called PARADOX 2 replies

Attachments: The Paradox System
Exit Attachments

The Paradox System

  • #6,441
  • Sep 22, 2016 9:49pm Sep 22, 2016 9:49pm
EURJPY
Date: 2016-09-23 2200 EDT
News for USD EUR JPY: HIGH at 1400 Local

Daily:
ROMAR: R DN
EMA: R DN
PSAR: R DN
Last MACD 0 crossing: DN before EMA arrow
Last EMA Alert Arrow: DN
Last DB Attachment: 112.068B
Last SAR Attachment: 112.068B
Fibo up or down: UP
Notes: 4H downward, DB,SAR has LightSkyBlue outer box connection

1HR: Open Price: 112.891
ROMAR: R DN
EMA: R DN
PSAR: S UP
Last MACD 0 crossing: UP
Last EMA Alert Arrow: UP
Fibo up or down: UP
Notes: 4H downward, W is at P at bottom of mini-swing, Market is above ROMAR resistance

2HR:
ROMAR: R DN
EMA: S UP
PSAR: S UP
Last MACD 0 crossing: DN
Last EMA Alert Arrow: UP
Last DB Attachment: 113.490 T at Fibo 61.8
Last SAR Attachment: 113.424 T
Fibo up or down: UP
Notes: W,S crossed P, DB, SAR, Gold divergence and LightSkyBlue are all attached at 112.068, ROMAR is at 113.574

Notes for all 3 charts: 3TF ROMAR downward but Fibo's up. H2 EMA and PSAR are support

Entry: The market is above H1 ROMAR but I expect H2 ROMAR will provide significant resistance, therefore, I'll plan a short entry. First, H1 and H2 4H must be in sync. H2 SAR and DB, I expect, may join together below Fibo 0.0. When H2 PSAR is eliminated and intersects with EMA, I'll enter short at open below Smooth.

Result:
  • #6,442
  • Sep 23, 2016 10:54am Sep 23, 2016 10:54am
Quoting InDaMoment
EURJPY Date: 2016-09-23 2200 EDT News for USD EUR JPY: HIGH at 1400 Local Daily: ROMAR: R DN EMA: R DN PSAR: R DN Last MACD 0 crossing: DN before EMA arrow Last EMA Alert Arrow: DN Last DB Attachment: 112.068B Last SAR Attachment: 112.068B Fibo up or down: UP Notes: 4H downward, DB,SAR has LightSkyBlue outer box connection 1HR: Open Price: 112.891 ROMAR: R DN EMA: R DN PSAR: S UP Last MACD 0 crossing: UP Last EMA Alert Arrow: UP Fibo up or down: UP Notes: 4H downward, W is at P at bottom of mini-swing, Market is above ROMAR resistance 2HR: ROMAR:...
Hi,

Not that I'm the best, but from your plan it looks you are not objective. You use words like "expect"...
I know it is hard but try to be objective and look at the charts what's going on at the moment. Struggled with it myself.

Today is maybe a difficult day. I'm just curious to see how the DB and SAR will behave today. The DB is connected at a Top. And the SAR is also connected to a different Top. And if I understood the rules correct, DB and SAR should connect together at a higher level. (if I'm incorrect please let me know!).

I went long @ 2Hr open @ 14:00. Reasons 4 horsemen on 2Hr are aligned. PSAR did not flip but acted as resistance earlier. So with open
above Smooth and 4 horsemen aligned for up I enter the market with a TP for 20. Reason for 20 pip: Target is just below 2Hr Romar and it is almost the end of the week.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 78 KB
  • #6,443
  • Sep 23, 2016 7:48pm Sep 23, 2016 7:48pm
Quoting Pandakker
{quote} Hi, Not that I'm the best, but from your plan it looks you are not objective. You use words like "expect"... I know it is hard but try to be objective and look at the charts what's going on at the moment. Struggled with it myself. Today is maybe a difficult day. I'm just curious to see how the DB and SAR will behave today. The DB is connected at a Top. And the SAR is also connected to a different Top. And if I understood the rules correct, DB and SAR should connect together at a higher level. (if I'm incorrect please let me know!). I went...
Congratulations pandakker, you made a good call. I just stayed out. I should have made a plan for a long entry also.

I've seen the DB,SAR go both ways in the past. It can go up (like this time) or they can join together and attach below the previous DB attachment. At least I think that's how they work. (I'm a student, not an expert)

Maybe one of the experts can shed some light on this!
  • #6,444
  • Sep 24, 2016 3:47am Sep 24, 2016 3:47am
Quoting Pandakker
{quote} Hi, Not that I'm the best, but from your plan it looks you are not objective. You use words like "expect"... I know it is hard but try to be objective and look at the charts what's going on at the moment. Struggled with it myself. Today is maybe a difficult day. I'm just curious to see how the DB and SAR will behave today. The DB is connected at a Top. And the SAR is also connected to a different Top. And if I understood the rules correct, DB and SAR should connect together at a higher level. (if I'm incorrect please let me know!). I went...
nice trade,

I didn't take it as I still liked a flip of the PSAR on the 1H but I think if we purely look at the 2H that it was a good entry!
  • #6,445
  • Sep 24, 2016 7:37am Sep 24, 2016 7:37am
Quoting InDaMoment
{quote} Congratulations pandakker, you made a good call. I just stayed out. I should have made a plan for a long entry also. I've seen the DB,SAR go both ways in the past. It can go up (like this time) or they can join together and attach below the previous DB attachment. At least I think that's how they work. (I'm a student, not an expert) Maybe one of the experts can shed some light on this!
Hi,


The way the DB and SAR moving is something more people find difficult. Including me.
I try to focus on these movements and try to understand it.
Yesterday I noticed the DB attachment had no thistle box at it, also the fib on Daily and 2Hr are green.
For me reasons that the DB and SAR would connect together at a higer level.

You say in the past that the connection with DB and SAR took place at a lower level in a same kind of situation.
Do you have screenshots of that?
Maybe some other factors were different, like for example the fib color.

I will post a few screenshots of the 2Hr charts which give a good view how DB and SAR finally connected toghether.
Maybe usefull.....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYproH2_20160923_1.png Size: 85 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYproH2_20160923_2.png Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYproH2_20160923_3.png Size: 78 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYproH2_20160923_4.png Size: 79 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYproH2_20160923_5.png Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYproH2_20160923_6.png Size: 78 KB
  • #6,446
  • Sep 24, 2016 7:46am Sep 24, 2016 7:46am
Quoting Jens89
{quote} nice trade, I didn't take it as I still liked a flip of the PSAR on the 1H but I think if we purely look at the 2H that it was a good entry!
Hi,

I always trade of the 2Hr chart. That is what Dove also said. Just use the 1Hr for reference, but what I understood is that you would not need the 1Hr to trade.

As for yesterday, the PSAR and the EMA on the 2Hr chart acted the whole day as support, so when it became clear that purple stayed above the 2Hr EMA and market opened @ 1400 GMT above SMOOTH that was for me the reason to take an entry. I did not looked at the 1Hr PSAR.
You could actually entered the market one hour later @1500 GMT open. At that point the market was still around the 2Hr open and on the 1Hr the PSAR was flipped but not confirmed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYproH2_20160923_2.png Size: 79 KB
  • #6,447
  • Sep 24, 2016 7:54am Sep 24, 2016 7:54am
Quoting Pandakker
{quote} Hi, The way the DB and SAR moving is something more people find difficult. Including me. I try to focus on these movements and try to understand it. Yesterday I noticed the DB attachment had no thistle box at it, also the fib on Daily and 2Hr are green. For me reasons that the DB and SAR would connect together at a higer level. You say in the past that the connection with DB and SAR took place at a lower level in a same kind of situation. Do you have screenshots of that? Maybe some other factors were different, like for example the fib color....
yup, this is exactly what confuses me all the time as well. in my logic when I saw the 2 separated attachment I would expect a SAR attachment down and then it reconnecting at the top. altough on the other hand, when the connection happened, the horsemen were up so in that sense it made me doubt as well.

and then I will show you another example

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 124 KB


this looked like a SAR which would turn into a DB. it attached at the moment the PSAR flipped for support and all the horsemen up. sounds a bit logical right?

nope

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 58 KB


dove berated me then for this trade because of the daily ROMAR.

which does make sense, don't get me wrong. but it doesn't mean that the market cannot go through the ROMAR. especially with the horsemen on 1 and 2 hour going up.

this system works very well and can give a very high winrate, I am fully convinced of that. the difficulty however is "the weight" one has to put in the support and resistance of the indicators. as the trade I showed you just there we had the horsemen and ROMAR up on the 2 hour. the fibo was down. on the daily, the horsemen were also still all up , the fibo was green and purple has not crossed white yet as you will be able to see on the next screenshot.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot4.png Size: 105 KB


so my thinking was: there is more convincing evidence for the long than for the short. it's only by doing and fitting everything together and making mistakes all the time that I am understanding more of it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 83 KB
  • #6,448
  • Sep 24, 2016 7:57am Sep 24, 2016 7:57am
Quoting Pandakker
{quote} Hi, The way the DB and SAR moving is something more people find difficult. Including me. I try to focus on these movements and try to understand it. Yesterday I noticed the DB attachment had no thistle box at it, also the fib on Daily and 2Hr are green. For me reasons that the DB and SAR would connect together at a higer level. You say in the past that the connection with DB and SAR took place at a lower level in a same kind of situation. Do you have screenshots of that? Maybe some other factors were different, like for example the fib color....
That's interesting how you made a series of screen shots showing the connections. That made clear exactly how that happened. I'll try to do the same the next time that I see a lower connection. I's very difficult to go back through the history and explain since the preliminary connections are no longer there.

I believe that the thistle price box is for the SAR. The only time we see it on the DB is when the SAR is connected with the DB.

It's probably also important that yesterdays happened during a period of consolidation.
  • #6,449
  • Sep 24, 2016 9:28am Sep 24, 2016 9:28am
Quoting Jens89
{quote} yup, this is exactly what confuses me all the time as well. in my logic when I saw the 2 separated attachment I would expect a SAR attachment down and then it reconnecting at the top. altough on the other hand, when the connection happened, the horsemen were up so in that sense it made me doubt as well. and then I will show you another example {image} this looked like a SAR which would turn into a DB. it attached at the moment the PSAR flipped for support and all the horsemen up. sounds a bit logical right? nope {image} dove berated me then...
I think I understand what you mean.

In your opion you got more convincing evidence too go long.

But looking back at your example you can come up with reasons why a long trade was against the trend.
On the Daily you had a top @116.352 on the 2 september.
At that point the DB and SAR connected together and the FIBO had flipped for the down.
Since then the market went down.

On the 5th sept market touched the 2Hr ROMAR .
From that point market started a retrace, leaving the DB at 2HR ROMAR level.

On the 6th sept EMA had crossed ROMAR on the 1Hr so H1 was in the downtrend.
The DAILY ROMAR was already in a downtrend, but you only had the 2Hr ROMAR left in a uptrend.
Then at some point the SAR connected at a TOP.

One of the rules Dove explained said:
"When the DB is separated from the SAR during the downtrend; it is telling you something. And that is: the next connection with the DB will be at the bottom of a candle somewhere in the downtrend; and vice-versa on the uptrend."

So based on this you could say that he SAR attachment on the 6th sept was the sign to look for an entry to go short. And probably the more experience people went short.....

Ofcourse this is after the fact .......

Here another example of the DB SAR behaviour from last wednesday.
After the big spike up the SAR connected to the new top, but finally the SAR and DB connected together at a lower low, because the trend was down.
Later that day it made a final low @112.068
At that point the fibo on the 2Hr and Daily flipped for the up.

So to me we are now in a upswing movement and lets see what happens.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYproH2_20160921.png Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYproH2_20160921_2.png Size: 77 KB
  • #6,450
  • Sep 24, 2016 10:40am Sep 24, 2016 10:40am
Quoting Pandakker
{quote} I think I understand what you mean. In your opion you got more convincing evidence too go long. But looking back at your example you can come up with reasons why a long trade was against the trend. On the Daily you had a top @116.352 on the 2 september. At that point the DB and SAR connected together and the FIBO had flipped for the down. Since then the market went down. On the 5th sept market touched the 2Hr ROMAR . From that point market started a retrace, leaving the DB at 2HR ROMAR level. On the 6th sept EMA had crossed ROMAR on the...
yup, I agree. and that's why I said it can be difficult in knowing how much weight one should put in each support and resistance to make a case
  • #6,451
  • Sep 24, 2016 10:48am Sep 24, 2016 10:48am
Quoting Jens89
{quote} yup, I agree. and that's why I said it can be difficult in knowing how much weight one should put in each support and resistance to make a case
It's all about the bigger picture and trading in the moment.
Still learning myself.
  • #6,452
  • Sep 26, 2016 1:15am Sep 26, 2016 1:15am
EURJPY
Date: 2016-09-26 2200 EDT
News for USD EUR JPY: HIGH at 2100 local

Daily:
ROMAR: R DN
EMA: R DN
PSAR: R DN
Last MACD 0 crossing: DN before EMA arrow
Last EMA Alert Arrow: DN
Last DB Attachment: 112.068B
Last SAR Attachment: 112.068B
Fibo up or down: UP
Notes: 4H downward, last week the market retraced off the Fibo 0.0 at 112.068

1HR: Open Price: 113.389
ROMAR: S UP
EMA: R DN
PSAR: R DN
Last MACD 0 crossing: DN
Last EMA Alert Arrow: DN
Fibo up or down: DN
Notes: ROMAR is just below market

2HR:
ROMAR: R DN
EMA: S UP
PSAR: S UP
Last MACD 0 crossing: DN
Last EMA Alert Arrow: DN
Last DB Attachment: 113.606 T
Last SAR Attachment: 113.606 T
Fibo up or down: UP
Notes: W,S crossed P eliminating Parabolic, EMA is between Smooth and PSAR, ROMAR and Fibo 61.8 are strong resistance

Notes for all 3 charts: Consolidation

Entry: With H2 EMA and MACD arrows down and White crossing Purple eliminating PSAR, I'll enter short on retrace to resistance. Entered short at 113.330

Result:
  • #6,453
  • Sep 26, 2016 2:38am Sep 26, 2016 2:38am
Hi Jens,

I'm not sure if it is right to post this example here, because it is not related to EURJPY.
This is about the GBPUSDwhich I also follow.

But maybe this example is usefull regarding the SAR and DB.

This moring the SAR was attached at a top chart 1. Now the EMA is still resistance.
On the Daily chart I noticed the FIBO was still red.
So in my understanding market will go lower an re-attach to the DB at a lower level.
If the daily FIBO would be green, then in my understanding the attachment would be at a TOP, but then more factors where pointing for that.

I hope I'm a bit clear in my explaination.

But this is on the GBPUSD, not sure if it is wise to post this example. If not please let me know and I will delete it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDproH2_20160926_1.png Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDproDaily_20160926_1.png Size: 67 KB
  • #6,454
  • Sep 26, 2016 2:43am Sep 26, 2016 2:43am
Quoting Pandakker
Hi Jens, I'm not sure if it is right to post this example here, because it is not related to EURJPY. This is about the GBPUSDwhich I also follow. But maybe this example is usefull regarding the SAR and DB. This moring the SAR was attached at a top chart 1. Now the EMA is still resistance. On the Daily chart I noticed the FIBO was still red. So in my understanding market will go lower an re-attach to the DB at a lower level. If the daily FIBO would be green, then in my understanding the attachment would be at a TOP, but then more factors where pointing...
Hi,

yea, as a rule of thumb it should be correct and that's also how I look at it, when the SAR is at the same side of the PSAR and EMA we will then be looking at a target on the other side . so as you show in this example as well.
  • #6,455
  • Sep 26, 2016 2:56am Sep 26, 2016 2:56am
Quoting InDaMoment
EURJPY Date: 2016-09-26 2200 EDT News for USD EUR JPY: HIGH at 2100 local Daily: ROMAR: R DN EMA: R DN PSAR: R DN Last MACD 0 crossing: DN before EMA arrow Last EMA Alert Arrow: DN Last DB Attachment: 112.068B Last SAR Attachment: 112.068B Fibo up or down: UP Notes: 4H downward, last week the market retraced off the Fibo 0.0 at 112.068 1HR: Open Price: 113.389 ROMAR: S UP EMA: R DN PSAR: R DN Last MACD 0 crossing: DN Last EMA Alert Arrow: DN Fibo up or down: DN Notes: ROMAR is just below market 2HR: ROMAR: R DN EMA: S UP PSAR: S UP Last MACD 0 crossing:...

Great trade!
  • #6,456
  • Sep 26, 2016 3:02am Sep 26, 2016 3:02am
Quoting Pandakker
{quote} Great trade!
Thanks Pandakker, It hit TP for +40
  • #6,457
  • Sep 26, 2016 3:59pm Sep 26, 2016 3:59pm
my trade of today. eventually closed down with about 35 pips of profit as I am going to bed.
it came extremely close to my tp twice as in within maybe 2-3 micropips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 29 KB
  • #6,458
  • Sep 26, 2016 7:00pm Sep 26, 2016 7:00pm
My trade successful today. Only 20 pips, but I'm happy to have done in the moment
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 4 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: wp_ss_20160926_0003.png Size: 174 KB
  • #6,459
  • Sep 26, 2016 10:25pm Sep 26, 2016 10:25pm
Quoting manin011
My trade successful today. Only 20 pips, but I'm happy to have done in the moment {image} {image}
For this type of trade, you would normally enter a SL of 40. The SL is 40 for a TP of 40 or 20. You can go back and read to verify this if you want.

But, anyway, congrats on your 20 pips!
  • #6,460
  • Edited 1:00am Sep 27, 2016 12:11am | Edited 1:00am
Got my 40 pips. 5 (!) times I was less than a pip short of reaching TP. Entering one H2 candle earlier would have been more ideal I think, but I was sleeping at the time. The JPY news last night helped me a bit getting that 1 pip I was missing. Still want to show the trade as the entry in itself was good in my opinion.

Here is the motivation for the trade:
Entered short with H2 open candle below EMA, which slided below ROMAR to keep the downtrend intact. Purple had already crossed White and Smooth and was heading for EMA and we were around 61.8 Fibo at the time. We also had the green divergence from last friday and today the red EMA arrow and MACD arrow, both set in stone at entry, and PSAR flip at entry candle. On the Daily the 4 horsemen were still in downtrend with White at Purple. On H1 the 4 horsemen were also in downtrend with ROMAR as support. With the open candle below ROMAR support and the confluence for the downtrend I didn't consider that a major obstacle, just like H2 and Daily green Fibo's. 40 SL was safe behind H2 ROMAR resistance and 40 TP was just above Daily White, which in hindsight stopped the market 5 times from getting lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYproH23.png Size: 46 KB
8 traders viewing now