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Lock's Cable Corner

  • #361
  • Sep 23, 2016 8:12am Sep 23, 2016 8:12am
Quoting Lock
{quote} It is proceeding towards the old double pass pit gap 28875-2902 Upcoming pit US will open with, apparently, an anomalous gap down (more than 100 pips)
Do you expect a retrace from that position?
Striving for consistency
  • #362
  • Sep 23, 2016 8:18am Sep 23, 2016 8:18am
Quoting Wdfx
{quote} Interesting Lock I have moved my stop and was thinking of scaling in more for a couple of extra pips?
This is very personal. Depends on your approach to risk. Inventories are extraordinary short right now. It's Friday and I have my short just at the top of GB session. So for my situation and for my attitude a scale out was normal inside this gap. Because as written, if something could go wrong will be here. (obviously also below the 15 of August!)
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  • #363
  • Sep 23, 2016 8:20am Sep 23, 2016 8:20am
Quoting Wdfx
{quote} Do you expect a retrace from that position?
It's possible (not probable but absolutely possible) but I will not be in it. It's too dangerous for me because I'm too tired and I've not any psychological capital to spend anymore.
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  • #364
  • Sep 23, 2016 8:21am Sep 23, 2016 8:21am
Quoting Lock
{quote} This is very personal. Dipends by your approach to risk. Inventories are extraordinary short right now. It's Friday and I have my short just at the top of GB session. So for my situation and for my attitude a scale out was normal inside this gap. Because as written, if something could go wrong will be here. (obviously also below the 15 of August!)
I have had a good day for a change, up around 100 pips (80 locked in). Decision point for me, thank you again for your insight. Made up for my losses early in the week.
Striving for consistency
  • #365
  • Sep 23, 2016 8:25am Sep 23, 2016 8:25am
Quoting Wdfx
{quote} I have had a good day for a change, up around 100 pips (80 locked in). Decision point for me, thank you again for your insight. Made up for my losses early in the week.
Very good, happy for that! Good continuation and, if I may, do not risk your holiday in the last part of Friday specially if you got this initial move. Market is not coming to an end today.
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  • #366
  • Sep 23, 2016 8:29am Sep 23, 2016 8:29am
I think on balance I will just let my trade ride for a while. no scaling either way. I'll just follow my stop. Last Friday. I came out early more or less in the same situation. I should have let it ride. when I checked later on in the evening I could have been up another 50 pips. That is not to say this weeks pattern is the same though, just an observation.
Striving for consistency
  • #367
  • Sep 23, 2016 8:31am Sep 23, 2016 8:31am
Quoting Lock
{quote} Very good, happy for that! Good continuation and, if I may, do not risk your holiday in the last part of Friday specially if you got this initial move. Market is not coming to an end today.
Thanks for the advice Lock, my inexperience shows. I still manage to give most of what I make back at times...
Striving for consistency
  • #368
  • Sep 23, 2016 8:39am Sep 23, 2016 8:39am
Quoting Lock
{quote} It is proceeding towards the old double pass pit gap 28875-2902 Upcoming pit US will open with, apparently, an anomalous gap down (more than 100 pips) C period too fast too much. A lot of single pips for it.
100% C period retracement
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  • #369
  • Sep 23, 2016 8:56am Sep 23, 2016 8:56am
This is the last post for today because I'm very tired right now,

For continuation downside we do not want to see price acceptation above 29465. If it will happen we could have a substantial retracement upside or a balance around 2968. Instead, if price will find acceptation below this level (29465) we could "easily" go downside to correct the double pass pit gap 28875-2902 and eventually the 15 of August pit poor low.

Have a nice continuation and a good weekend.

Best L.
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  • #370
  • Edited 4:14pm Sep 25, 2016 3:46pm | Edited 4:14pm
Quoting Lock
{quote} It is proceeding towards the old double pass pit gap 28875-2902 Upcoming pit US will open with, apparently, an anomalous gap down (more than 100 pips) C period too fast too much. A lot of single pips for it.
Quoting Lock
{quote} ...Inventories are extraordinary short right now. It's Friday and I have my short just at the top of GB session. So for my situation and for my attitude a scale out was normal inside this gap. Because as written, if something could go wrong will be here. (obviously also below the 15 of August!)
Quoting Lock
This is the last post for today because I'm very tired right now, For continuation downside we do not want to see price acceptation above 29465. If it will happen we could have a substantial retracement upside or a balance around 2968. Instead, if price will find acceptation below this level (29465) we could "easily" go downside to correct the double pass pit gap 28875-2902 and eventually the 15 of August pit poor low. Have a nice continuation and a good weekend. Best L.
Only a note about Friday pit session: GB went down with inventories clearly very short, when preUS continued downside even further (with a too elongated and weak C period) inventories became too short. And generally when a weak move come inside a strong support (as an old serious gap could be) it is very normal to expect a possible initial rejection somewhere inside it. Then price was accepted above 29465 (2 m30 bar closed above it) and then the session eventually ended with a balance right around the composite POC at 2968. And this is very normal. Note the perfect "P" shape of the composite profile preUS+pitUS. It was clearly short covering.

Have a good night, L.

A visual description of what happened during Friday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 173 KB
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  • #371
  • Sep 26, 2016 1:25am Sep 26, 2016 1:25am
EARLY MORNING REPORT

Not so much to write from yesterday. Also Tokyo session spent almost its entire activity balancing around the main composite POC at 2968 as Friday pit session already did.

Friday GB session downside was clearly a weak session, leaving behind 4 anomalies of which 3 remain to correct. 2987-2990, 3011-3012 (POC), 3023-3027. Also as written the top of Thurday 09.22 pit session was weak as it tagged the low of the upper daily bracket at 31187.
This umpteenth weaknsess has to be add to a long sequence of weaknesses (mainly poor highs) left behind by price liquidation from 09.06 pit session high at 34444.
Furthermore friday GB session also left a double pass gap 3035-30465, that is right below the double pit pass gap 30465-30645: this zone, consequently is clearly interesting for both following GB and pit sessions during next days.

Downside the double pass pit gap 28875-2902 and eventually the 15 of August pit poor low (28654) are still in place anyhow and the bottom of Friday preUS was clearly an automatic reaction to inventories became too short during the liquidation from Thursday high.

So, in my opinion we could expect the following possible scenarios.

  1. An initial continutation of the current balance around 2968 with some test up and down and then a conlusion of the auction downside with the test below the double pass pit gap 28875-2902 and eventually the 15 of August pit poor low, and then a possible retracement from there to correct all the weaknesses upside or a very weak continuation downside.
  2. A gap down for upcoming GB session (so without anyfurther balance around 2968), an immediate test below the double pass pit gap 28875-2902 and eventually the 15 of August pit poor low, and then a possible retracement from there to correct all the weaknesses upside or a weak continuation downside only supported by this further GB gap down.
  3. An immediate correction above with a substantial retracement in order to remove weak sellers from this market allowing, after its conclusion, a possible continuation downside with more strength and conviction.

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  • #372
  • Sep 26, 2016 2:00am Sep 26, 2016 2:00am
GB opens with a very little gap down from Friday GB low at 29565. If it will resist we could have a weak continuation downside. A very important note is about the double pass pit gap 28875-2902 and the 15 of August pit poor low: they have to be corrected by a pit sessoin. So even if GB will go below them the only real possible test has to be performed by a following pit session. A correction could also occurr in the case of a gap down for upcoming pit session, but in that case the double pass pit gap will become triple pass so a very important target for following pit sessions anyway (in this last case from below).
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  • #373
  • Sep 26, 2016 2:17am Sep 26, 2016 2:17am
Now this very tiny GB gap down could also resist but current A period high tagged exactly the low of the GB daily bracket low at 29538 (last four GB sessions bracket low): so all this thing now is very very weak. It could continue lower but it is weaker and weaker at any pip downside. Carry this information forward if you will not see any correction upside.
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  • #374
  • Sep 26, 2016 2:32am Sep 26, 2016 2:32am
GB is now testing below Tokyo low (29345). For continuation downside we want to see price confirmation below it.
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  • #375
  • Sep 26, 2016 2:35am Sep 26, 2016 2:35am
Given the current fribonacci levels and the previous volumes at these prices we might be looking at a shooting star, although the trend is bearish but i agree the trend is not so strong any views about that?
  • #376
  • Sep 26, 2016 2:36am Sep 26, 2016 2:36am
09:36 +1GMT B high went back just to half back: an other information about who is currently ruling this price action. Clearly weak hands.

Quoting Lbass
Given the current fribonacci levels and the previous volumes at these prices we might be looking at a shooting star, although the trend is bearish but i agree the trend is not so strong any views about that?
I use different market information in order to make my analysis. I consider Leonardo Fibonacci's numbers only as weak references, specially the 50 % (that by the way has not so much to do with the work of Fibonacci).

Quoting Lock
09:36 +1GMT B high went back just to half back: an other information about who is currently ruling this price action. Clearly weak hands.
Note that half back weak tag has been removed by following price action (now it's a good test above it with 4 pips)

10:09 +1GMT
Up and down Tokyo low(overnight low) not a sign of stength and convition clearly. And again at half back!

Please note A and B period close price. They are both below Tokyo low. C is now testing the early morning low (B period low) We need confirmation below it for continuation downside. Also we do not want to continue this up and down at Tokyo low.
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  • #377
  • Sep 26, 2016 3:44am Sep 26, 2016 3:44am
Quoting Lock
Please note A and B period close price. They are both below Tokyo low. C is now testing the early morning low (B period low) We need confirmation below it for continuation downside. Also we do not want to continue this up and down at Tokyo low.
10:44
Again at hb, and again at Tokyo low.

Note D period inside bar of C period.

Also consider D period is the last of Tokyo.
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  • #378
  • Sep 26, 2016 3:59am Sep 26, 2016 3:59am
Quoting Lock
{quote} 10:44 Again at hb, and again at Tokyo low. Note D period inside bar of C period. Also consider D period is the last of Tokyo.
Well done Lock.
  • #379
  • Sep 26, 2016 4:02am Sep 26, 2016 4:02am
Fast recap:

  1. GB open with a little GAP down.
  2. It retraced it all but for 2 pips (tagging the low of the last 4 GB session bracket).
  3. It went below Tokyo low and spent 4 periods up and down it.
  4. B period high is at GB open price.
  5. C period high is at old half back
  6. A B and C period all closed below Tokyo low.
  7. D period high tagged C period high (that was already weak, making it even weaker).
  8. D period is inside bar of C period.

All what you have seen is a very weak environment and forcing action. It' a very dangerous situation. But unless new buyers will enter this market it could also continue lower, in a very very weak way. We are inside the old double pass pit gap from the 15 of August and GB low is 2 pips above Friday preUS low (edit). If instead new buyers will step in, all what is above here, up to Tokyo cluster poor high at 29865, will be, probably, erased.

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  • #380
  • Sep 26, 2016 4:37am Sep 26, 2016 4:37am
Update 11:36

  1. No acceptation below B early morning low.
  2. Price still up and down Tokyo low.
  3. Bperiod high at open, while C, D and E periods made a cluster highs at old half back.
  4. Current F tagging current half back.

Weak hands continue to sell at 2940 level, making it weaker and weaker at any moment in time. Can it continue lower? Absolutely. But not in a safe way at all.

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